| Tatlo, Apat, Lima - Laspag na ang Ina By Antonio C. Abaya August 12, 2004 Manila Standard As expected, my article �Isa, Dalawa. Tama Na!�, drew dissenting reactions as well as consenting ones, which are or will soon be all archived in www.tapatt.org. One favorite point raised by dissenters is that the rich countries (Europe, Japan, the Anglo-Saxon countries, and even not-so-rich Russia), having supposedly realized the folly of their almost-zero population growth rates, are frantically looking for ways to encourage their people to have more children, because an ageing population endangers the viability of their social welfare programs. Unless reversed, there are and will be more and more old people going on pension, to be supported by fewer and fewer young people entering the work force to generate the taxes that make those pensions possible.. This is certainly true. The Scandinavian countries, even the Roman Catholic countries of Western Europe, Japan, Singapore�are all urging their people to have more children and are offering material incentives and tax breaks for families that do. But this should not be interpreted as vindication of the irresponsible breeding that is going on in, say, the Philippines and Black Africa. I have not heard of any developed country urging its people to have five, eight or 13 children. What they want to achieve is an equilibrium between new pensioners and new entrants into the work force (which can be partly achieved through immigration), not an explosion of babies along their railroad tracks and under their bridges. And that equilibrium may be reached if families had two, instead of one, children/child, not by having five, eight or 13 children. In other words, this social engineering will be achieved through rational planning, still using current artificial methods of birth control, and will not rely on Humping Every Night with only the Vatican Roulette to (perhaps) prevent fertilization by the Holy Spirit. Another dissenting opinion says that �overpopulation� does not directly cause or affect poverty. Who said that it does? If it did, China (pop 1.3 bn), India (1.1 bn), the US (294 mn), and Russia (143 mn) should be the poorest countries in the world. And Liechtenstein (pop 33,000), San Marino (28,000) and Nauru (13,000) should be the richest. And it�s not about density of population either. If it were, Mongolia should be more prosperous than Japan, Sudan more than Hong Kong.. What directly causes and affects poverty is not �overpopulation� or �population density� but population growth rate vis-�-vis economic growth rate. If a country�s economic growth rate is slower than, or only equals, its population growth rate, that country will sink into poverty and stay there (e.g. the countries of Black Africa). If a country�s economic growth rate is substantially higher than its population growth rate, then over time that country will attain economic prosperity and even aspire to First World status. (E.g. the economic tigers of East Asia: China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand). If a country�s economic growth rate is only barely above its population growth rate, then that country will just muddle along without achieving any breakthrough in its standard of living This, alas, has been the fate of the Philippines. Several economists have pointed out that since 1986, our GDP growth rate per annum has averaged only 3.1%.During that period our population growth rate declined but only minimally from 2.70 to 2.36%. Under President Arroyo, our GDP growth rate has hovered between 4.5 to 5.5% per annum, but our population growth rate has remained at around 2.36%. The net economic gain is just not enough to lift millions of people above the poverty level. The Philippines did manage a 6% growth rate in 1989, but this was reduced to 3% in 1990 following Honasan�s almost successful coup against President Aquino in December 1989, and further flattened to zero in 1991 with the aid of the power crisis then. We again reached a 6% growth rate in 1996 under President Ramos, but this was leveled the following year by the Asian financial crisis of 1997. By contrast, the above economic tigers, long before 1997, enjoyed growth rates of 8 to 10% p.a. (even higher, in China) for 20 years before they reached their present levels of prosperity. And during that period, their population growth rates steadily declined to their present levels, mostly below 1.0%.Being non-Catholics, their leaders and people had no hang-ups about artificial methods of birth control. Another dissenting voice says that we should concentrate more on curbing corruption than our population growth rate, in order to achieve high and sustained economic growth. While corruption is certainly morally repugnant, it does not by itself hinder economic growth. China achieved its highest growth rates (as much as 14% p.a.) in the 1980-1990s when it was also judged every year, by the Political and Economic Risks Consultancy Ltd of Hong Kong, to be the most corrupt country in Asia. The Philippines was, and still is, �only� the fourth most corrupt. But there has been a marked improvement in the population debate. The pro-life (pro-miserable-life, according to their critics) advocates no longer claim, as they used to, that condoms are abortifacient, meaning, that they cause abortions. We must be thankful for enlightenment, even if it drips in ever so glacially. As to why the Philippine economy failed to take off with its neighbors�, I have written about this in many previous columns, all archived in www.tapatt.org: 1. we had a minimum wage law, as early as the mid-50s, while our neighbors did not; 2. we missed the export bus of the 70s and 80s; 3. we missed the tourism bus of the 80s, 90s and 2000s; 4. we foolishly climbed on board the free-trade-and-globalization bus too early and thus lost industries and jobs to our neighbors; 5. we eschewed broad-based manufacturing as a generator of jobs, in favor almost exclusively of agriculture�.. ��..and all the while we were multiplying like tilapia. In a word, what the Philippines has been suffering from all these years has been poor leadership. President Arroyo has passed the buck to local governments on whether or not to promote artificial methods of birth control, or only the natural. This is not the stuff that strong, fearless and decisive leadership is made of. ***** My articles appear every Thursday in the Manila Standard and every Saturday in the Philippines Free Press. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �Tatlo, Apat, Lima � Laspag na ang Ina� Thanks so much, Tony. Very interesting! Carlos G. Baniqued, [email protected] August 13, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww BRAVO! Victor A. Lim, [email protected] Professor, Asian Institute of Management August 12, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Quick reaction: BPO outsourcing is the one real chance for educated Pinoys to earn well without having to leave their country. But no one is looking at the need to ugrade our capacity for English which used to be the Pinoy�s major advantage�How many Pilipinos are still able to speak (much less write) fluent English? Maybe not even 10%. No one writes any more. Texting has wiped out spelling skills: �BetR L8 dan nebR�?� While every other country in the world is trying to learn English as the international communications tool, our educated young people talk to each other in pidgin Taglish. This, plus our high wages and unrealistic overhead costs is why China is emerging as the leading BPO provider. Huli nanaman! Rica Cortes Rentzing, [email protected] Jellinekstra�e, 58 D-69126 Heidelberg. Germany August 12, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww . Hi, Sir Abaya, Now, that Madame Butterfly Arroyo is the mandatory chair of NAPC (National Anti-Poverty Commission) and Noli (Me Tangere) Forget-Me-Not is Alternate Chair, we have a terrific combination of super casting in this movie of a government. Madame authored this NAPC creation under RA 8425 (she was then a senator) as if by the power of her sixth sense, she will become the President and chair this herself. This Commission created under this RA 8425 in 1997 which embodies all the ideals of eradicating (eliminating), reducing, and alleviating the scourge of poverty, this "dumb nationhood" jumped on the "jeep" (short for Joseph Ejercito Estrada for President) as he embarked on ERAP SA MAHIHIRAP. This "jeep" reduced funding for RA 8425 and as he even ridiculed it, took off in his "jeep" with billions which could have funded it. There goes ERAP PARA KAYO MAGHIRAP. Even as he espoused that "in this democracy, all powers emanate from the people, the gains should return to the people" the IRR (Implementation Rules and Regulations) cannot be pursued for lack of adequate funds. This RA 8425 is the Magna Carta of the Poor by just going through all its ideal embodiments - nothing could be better than this. In my opinion, everytime the mention of a shift from our present system of "republican democracy" (those who are averse to it are only those who refer to it as the American-style democracy and do not want the mention of anything made in America - so what?) to the parliamentary system, it invites chaos, confusion, and the proliferation of a new breed of "heavyweights" who could in government for life putting their weight around to be succeeded by their generation. What could be better than the "republican democracy"? Parliamentary form has already entered here in the backdoors of this "republican democracy". Because this "dumb nationhood" cannot grasp the meanings and cannot differentiate between democracy (true and pure forms), "republican" or representative democracy, they do not have enough understanding of the present system. Although 45 million Filipinos are legally eligible to vote (by age and literacy), they are not "qualified" voters endowed with the understanding, competence, information, and intelligence as "wise voters". I say the parliamentary system serves only to advance the personal interests of proponents, they can do worst than what they are doing now in the "parliamentary" sense under this so-called "republican democracy". It's there - the "vote of confidence" by re-electing Arroyo again, "conscience voting" (the padrino system and the "utang na loob" paradigms, political payoffs appointments), changing laws at will by the party in power, maintaining a shadow government with secret negotiators turning the wheels and doing the shortcuts, sending troops to Iraq without consulting Congress, mistaken concepts of majority rule, democracy by the people, mockery of justice, crony capitalism and blatant disregard for the rule of law principles (corruption, criminality, corporate cheating and tax evasion). The idea of cha-cha is the worst "distraction" of the present incompetent and ineffective leadership to mask the futility of their national programs. The first investment to create a stable society is creating a well-informed society - an education campaign from the smallest unit of government (barangay) to the top oppressors of the poor and hence, "return the sovereignty to the people from whom all powers emanate". Funds, we need to do this - everybody does it. Then may be -TEN MILLION JOBS BEFORE YEAR 2010. I say, "parliamentary sense" is already here because people voted for "ideologies" not "substance". Arroyo's past SONAs and speeches contained the same "ideologies" in her promises to deliver a better government - as President - from 2001 to present. What have we gained so far? A P5.3 trillion whopper of a national debt. Somehow if every Filipino will cough up P65,000 right now to pay off this debt, we can start from scratch with ZERO Balance. So, the children pay for Dad's and Mom's debts (Filipino talaga!) Elsa Bayani, [email protected] August 12, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi, Tony May as well join the discussion. Here are my own thoughts on your views. Quote But this should not be interpreted as vindication of the irresponsible breeding that is going on in, say, the Philippines and Black Africa. I have not heard of any developed country urging its people to have five, eight or 13 children. Unquote My comment: And who said the Roman Catholic Church was in favor of irresponsible breeding. It has been promoting responsible parenthood since Day 1. The Church never encouraged couples who cannot afford, to raise many children. On the other hand, for the millionaire couples, not even the use of natural family planning methods are an excuse not to have many children. Quote In other words, this social engineering will be achieved through rational planning, still using current artificial methods of birth control, and will not rely on Humping Every Night with only the Vatican Roulette to (perhaps) prevent fertilization by the Holy Spirit. Unquote My comment: Yes, but one can do family planning without the use of artificial methods of birth control. Education, more than artificial methods, is the key to reducing population growth rate while at the same enhancing economic growth rate. The billions of dollars used in manufacturing contraceptives should be channelled instead to building schools, printing textbooks and training teachers. Quote Another dissenting opinion says that "overpopulation" does not directly cause or affect poverty. Who said that it does? If it did, China (pop 1.3 bn), India (1.1 bn), the US (294 mn), and Russia (143 mn) should be the poorest countries in the world. And Liechtenstein (pop 33,000), San Marino (28,000) and Nauru (13,000) should be the richest. And it's not about density of population either. If it were, Mongolia should be more prosperous than Japan, Sudan more than Hong Kong.. What directly causes and affects poverty is not "overpopulation" or "population density" but population growth rate vis-�-vis economic growth rate. If a country's economic growth rate is slower than, or only equals, its population growth rate, that country will sink into poverty and stay there (e.g. the countries of Black Africa). If a country's economic growth rate is substantially higher than its population growth rate, then over time that country will attain economic prosperity and even aspire to First World status. (E.g. the economic tigers of East Asia: China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand). If a country's economic growth rate is only barely above its population growth rate, then that country will just muddle along without achieving any breakthrough in its standard of living This, alas, has been the fate of the Philippines. Several economists have pointed out that since 1986, our GDP growth rate per annum has averaged only 3.1%.During that period our population growth rate declined but only minimally from 2.70 to 2.36% Under President Arroyo, our GDP growth rate has hovered between 4.5 to 5.5% per annum, but our population growth rate has remained at around 2.36%. The net economic gain is just not enough to lift millions of people above the poverty level The Philippines did manage a 6% growth rate in 1989, but this was reduced to 3% in 1990 following Honasan's almost successful coup against President Aquino in December 1989, and further flattened to zero in 1991 with the aid of the power crisis then. We again reached a 6% growth rate in 1996 under President Ramos, but this was leveled next year by the Asian financial crisis of 1997. By contrast, the above economic tigers, long before 1997, enjoyed growth rates of 8 to 10% p.a. (even higher, in China) for 20 years before they reached their present levels of prosperity. And during that period, their population growth rates steadily declined to their present levels, mostly below 1.0%.Being non-Catholics, their leaders and people had no hang-ups about artificial methods of birth control. Unquote My comment: Again you completely forgot the education factor. There is a high positive correlationship between the level of education of the people and economic growth rate; and a high negative correlationship between level of education and population growth rate. So, why don't the Western and developed countries concentrate in improving the level of education in developing countries instead of manufacturing contraceptives and forcing it down on the poor people? Because on one hand, the western countries make billions of dollars selling contraceptives while on the other hand, educating the poor in the developed countries would only make them a potential competitor later on. Bobby Tordesillas, [email protected] August 12, 2004 MY REPLY. But it boils down to the same thing. Good education leads to low birth rate through the use of artificial methods of birth control. As I pointed out in Isa, Dalawa. Tama Na!, even the predominantly Roman Catholic countries in well-educated Europe have almost zero population growth rates, and this they achieved through the use of artificial methods of birth control, not through the practice of Vatican Roulette. Catholic Poland, for example, produces 60 million rubber condoms a year. Do you think the Poles use these as balloons for children�s parties? wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww BRAVO !!! TELL IT LIKE IT IS !!! [email protected] August 12, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww This is my analysis of all what is happening to us now. Mr Abaya, I agree with your equation of Population Growth rate vis-a-vis economic growth rate. It is true that we have had very weak leaders after Marcos. Cory was riding on the nostalgic aura during her term. Ramos was rinding on the expensive electric crisis, Erap, well everybody knows what happened, GMA, well she had to prove her legitimacy and had to give thanks to a lot of political padrinos not to mention the military and the PNP and who knows who else. One thing, Cory wanted to help the poor through the Land Reform thingamajig, it failed more than succeeded to some extent. Politicians and the rich never let go of thier land and surcumnavigated the law by converting their lands to golf courses, subdivisions, resorts etc. from dormant agricultural land. Politics talaga is the root of this disease inflicting our country today, sorry to say. For a while after Marcos fled, everyone wanted to do something and hoped of a better life. Filipinos were put in a pedestal all over the world. But alas, after the smoke cleared....reality set in. We were better off then (Marcos era) than now (after the Marcos era). What a sad state... You ask why? Well, truth is, the hungry and opportunistic politicians wanted some of the "gold" then & now after Marcos was gone. They did get just that, the "gold". No one really thought of the country, although they have said they "care" and "will fight" for the people (during campaigns only)... Reality is, we are the only country in the world (correct me if I am wrong) that encourages their citizenry to leave the country to work for the needed dollars. Isn't it supposedly be the other way around, wherein the country provides the citizenry for them to stay in the country to be able to prosper? I am not saying that working abroad is bad. I understand people have to feed their families too anyway they can. But encourage them to leave their families is something else. It just proves that governments after Marcos had and have no plans for the country, immaterial as to what they are saying in their political speeches during the campaign and after. This is just proof that our governments after Marcos has had "no formula" for the prosperity of our country to this date. We were just milked dry of our resources by the post Marcos government personalities and their successors. It must be a sickness worse than SARS, and AIDS. There seems to be no cure in sight for this infectous disease affecting out country today. Let us stop blaming the past presidents for the failures of the country, por dios por santos. Don't they have anything better to do aside from blaming? Jose Genato, [email protected] August 13, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, I agree with your position on the population issue: no to free-wheeling growth, no to negative growth. Perhaps our administrators should learn from the insects. Certain specie of the beetles eats some of their young. Apparently, this instinctive parricide is a survival strategy - lessening the competition for the limited food supply. In economic terms, this is almost like what is called "creative destruction". When I was a kid, I used to go to the rain-soaked ricefields to gather snails and trap dalag and hito. The rural folks would similarly be active during this time, hauling to the town market these delectable delicacies by the kerosene cans. Food was abundant in the barrio and in those days someone is called poor only because he did not have a house made of wood or concrete, or he cannot afford nice clothes and shoes. Today, the hito, dalag and snails have banished from the ricefields. Thanks to IRRI for propagating strange rice varieties that required massive doses of chemical fertilizers and insecticides. These chemicals poisoned the soil and made it a deadly place for hito and dalag to hibernate during the hot dry season. Now, many of the rural folks are poor not only because they do not have nice houses or shoes or clothes, but also because most of the time they have no food on the table. The before and after situation: before - few people and more food, after - more people and less food. Question: should Filipinos start seriously considering the way of the beetle? (Who said I am suggesting we eat our young?) Virgilio Leynes, [email protected] August 13, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony � Congratulations on your overpopulation comments. I've noticed lately, in the last year or so, that many columnists and other public figures have ceased their silence on this subject and are now speaking out freely as they realize that fewer offspring , while not solving the development problem alone, would contribute enormously to development. Personally, I'd like to see the Church replace their anti-family planning campaign with a responsible fatherhood campaign. This would emphasize the responsibility of fathers (mothers are already responsible) to support their kids financially and in every other way. Incidentally, this would also help to slow population growth. It would be a way of enlisting the Church in a useful campaign and a positive, rather than a negative one. Best wishes, Ken Wright, [email protected] August 13, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww : Mr. Abaya I just came back from the province and read your pieces. I agree with and endorse fully your views, especially on population explosion. Attached is a piece entitled ANTEDILUVIAN POLICY AND POVERTY which I sent to the PDI last week. Regards, and more power to you NELSON D. LAVINA, [email protected] Ambassador (Ret.) August 23, 2004 ANTEDILUVIAN POLICY AND POVERTY Since the beginning of government, the Philippines followed the antediluvian exhortation: "Go forth and multiply!" The Filipinos took it to heart and multiplied like ants. From 19 million in 1946, the population has exponentially soared to more than 80 million in 2003. And 30 years from now, our population would double to 160 million! Shrouded by her Catholic veil, President Arroyo claims that economic progress is outpacing population growth and that we are better off than some of our neighboring countries. Of course, UN disagrees. So while we do not wish to compete with our Asian friends from Calcutta, Dhaka, Laos, Cambodia, the situation in other Catholic countries, like France, Italy, Austria is instructive: they have divorce, population control - and real progress. During her SONA, President Arroyo bared her 10-point agenda for economic recovery. Oil prices surged and a 5-point energy program was launched. But we are all familiar with SONAs and economic games. All the economic programs of administration to administration, from the Montelibano Plan to the Ongpin 11-Industry Plan, have failed. Economic agenda from Cory to FVR, from Erap to Ate Glo have merely lulled the people to the familiar refrain: economic take-off. The observation of Cardinal Sin during the FVR presidency that economic progress could only be found in newspapers appears more valid now than then. The President and most of her men are very religious. In fact, they violate the constitution daily, by requiring Catholic rites at the beginning of office hours in most government offices, especially Malacanang and the Supreme Court. But piety alone cannot solve government problems, foremost of all - poverty. Indeed, without population control, NO government could ever dream to succeed; the stark reality of grinding poverty looms daily in the countryside and every dark corner of the city. Senator Lacson received substantial votes last presidential elections mainly because of his courageous and realistic stand advocating two children per family. The 2-child policy submitted by Congressmen Barbers and Lagman is the single most important piece of legislative proposal that has ever emerged in the last 50 years. The Arroyo Administration should support it. Like it or not, this proposal is the only way for her to extricate the people from the morass of poverty. Surely, demographic condition from Ammon to Zeus, Jove to Yahweh, and then Christ to the 21st century has been fundamentally altered. While Prometheus is bound in the name of civilization, the Arroyo Administration should unshackle itself from superstitions and dogma to curb population and bridge poverty. ***** wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww |
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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| Dear Sir: > Thank you, too, for providing space for my contentious opinion on the Population issue. I also checked on the "Tourist Boom or Doom" which you have archived in Tapatt.org. I enjoyed reading a lot of your enlightening articles. Sharpen the the pen which is "mightier than the sword". More wisdom to your powerful writings! God bless. Elsa Bayani, [email protected] August 24, 2004 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |