Isa, Dalawa. Tama Na!
By Antonio C. Abaya
August 04, 2004,
Manila Standard


The current brouhaha over population management is most welcome and long overdue, even if some of the ideas that have been put forward are not practical. I was one of the first to point out that President Arroyo�s much ballyhooed 10-Point Legacy of what she wanted to leave behind at the end of her term made no mention at all of reducing our runaway population growth. Neither did her 5-point program in her State-of-the-Nation address last July 26.

President Arroyo is not a visionary reformer. She is an arch-conservative parroting the  mantras of the arch-conservative Philippine Catholic bishops, as far as population management is concerned. She protests that she has repeated her population policy again and again in the past three years. True. But this policy is based on the hope and the prayer that Filipino families will space their children two or three years apart, using the only method acceptable to the Philippine Catholic bishops, the rhythm method.

She in effect is hoping and praying that Filipino mothers will have �only� six or seven children, instead of 12 or 13, over their most fertile 20 years. Without any artificial methods of birth control, the rhythm method will not really reduce the production of babies since the natural rhythm of Filipino conjugal life, especially among the Angelo de la Cruzes of the slums, is Humping Every Night, as regular and predictable as the chirping of the cicadas.

To put this in statistical perspective, compare the population growth rates (or �natural increase�) of the Philippines and its neighbors, according to the
2004 World Almanac and Book of Facts: China 0.62%, Taiwan 0.65, South Korea 0.66, Singapore 0.84, Thailand 0.95, Vietnam 1.34, India 1.48, Indonesia 1.52, Cambodia 1.80, Malaysia 1.86, the Philippines 2.07 (actually 2.36, according to government stats), Bangladesh 2.13 and Laos 2.45. Somehow it does not cheer me up to know that we are doing better than Laos and Bangladesh.

Everyone tends to blame the entire Roman Catholic Church and the arch-conservative Pope John Paul II for this sad state of affairs. But all the Roman Catholic countries in Europe, like their Protestant counterparts, have practically zero population growth rates: Austria (78% Roman Catholic) 0.03% growth rate; Belgium (75% RC) 0.04; Poland (95% RC and intensely devoted to the Black Virgin of Cestoschowa) 0.05; Spain (94% RC and fountainhead of our own Catholicism) 0.06; Italy (site of the Vatican and 96% RC) 0.09; Portugal (site of Fatima and 94% RC) 0.12; Croatia (site of Medjugorje and 88% RC) 0.15; France (site of Lourdes and 83% RC) 0.35; and Ireland (92% RC and practically the only European country still turning out priests) 0.67.

Other Western countries with large Roman Catholic pluralities or minorities have equally low population growth rates: Switzerland (46% RC)  0.08; the United Kingdom (10% RC) 0.08; Czech Republic (39% RC) 0.17; Germany (34% RC) 0.17; Canada (46% RC) 0.34%; Australia (26% RC) 0.52. Only the US (28% RC) has an almost-Third World growth rate (1.81%), probably because of its large Black and Latino minorities who, together, make up 27% of the total US population..

In predominantly Roman Catholic Latin America, almost all countries have growth rates lower than the Philippines�, the six best performers being: Cuba 0.44; Uruguay 0.82; Argentina 0.99; Chile 1.05; Brazil 1.15; and Venezuela 1.49.

It is obvious that hundreds of millions of Roman Catholics worldwide are totally ignoring the Church and the Pope and are listening to their own consciences, as far as birth control and sexual morality are concerned, and are freely using various artificial methods of birth control. It is inconceivable (pun intended) that they are abstaining from sex or are playing Vatican Roulette in their bedrooms.

Their attitude is probably best summed up by an irreverent Village Voice cartoon that we posted in the Erehwon Bookshop bulletin board decades ago. It showed the Pope making the announcement that �the Catholic Church has approved a birth control pill. It is held firmly between the knees�.�

If President Arroyo is really serious about population management, she should adopt something like the 2-Child Policy proposed by Rep. Edcel Lagman, without making it  compulsory and without penalizing the third and later children born to a family. (Rep . Ace Barbers� proposal for a 5-year moratorium on child-bearing is silly: even if it were adopted, it cannot be enforced.)

Let me propose the fighting slogan: Isa, dalawa. Tama na! In Cebuano: Usa, duha, hustu na! I was also going to suggest an �Iwanan sa Simbahan� campaign in which (living) malnourished slum children are left in churches for the bishops to feed, but someone beat me to it by leaving a 6-month old fetus in the church of Running Priest, Fr. Robert Reyes. 

To make it acceptable to all but the most obstinate bishop and Opus Dei numerary, such a 2-Child policy should be non-coercive in every way, but its core must be a massive information campaign to promote the benefits of a smaller family, accompanied by access to all means of birth control, including condoms, birth control pills, intra-uterine devices, tubal ligation, vasectomy and spermicides, as well as Vatican Roulette, but excluding abortion.

Let the individual couples choose the method they prefer, but they must have real choices. The trouble with arch-conservative Catholics is that when they claim that they are also for population management, they want only the rhythm method to be promoted. Such obscurantism should have gone out of style with the Spanish Inquisition.

In 1994, when Pope John Paul II went on a pastoral visit to Black Africa at the height of the AIDS pandemic, he urged Black Africans not to use condoms � then being promoted as the best defense against AIDS � but to abstain instead from sex altogether. It was not recorded how many Black Africans died laughing at that suggestion, but it was obviously not taken seriously.

In the
2004 World Almanac, some of the highest population growth rates in the world were recorded by (impoverished) Black African countries: Nigeria 2.50%; Gabon 2.54; Senegal 2.54; Burkina-Faso 2.60; Eritrea 2.62; Guinea 2.68; Sudan (of current fame) 2.69; Liberia 2.74; Niger 2.78; Gambia 2.84; Mali 2.86; Somalia 2.88; Mauritania 2.91; Benin 2.95; Uganda 2.96; Madagascar 3.03; Congo 3.03; Chad 3.07. (Topped only by those oases of Islamic enlightenment: Saudi Arabia 3.14; Oman 3.35; and Yemen 3.42.) 

God must love starving African children. He makes so many of them. *****

My articles appear every Thursday in the Manila Standard and every Saturday in the Philippines Free Press.


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Reactions to �Isa, Dalawa. Tama na!� 



Just food for thought.  Countries with low food prices, good education, and a high income have a low birthrate.  Is it possible, that when we take care of the economy, education, and food production, birthrates will naturally slow down?

Breast feeding is also a natural birth control procedure

Jun M. Sarmiento, [email protected]
August 05, 2004

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Dear Tony,

GMA should be creative and explore all possible means of putting a rein on runaway population growth. Some creative ideas include taxing any child born after a designated number, making baby products more expensive, giving tax credits for newly married couples if they delay the pregnancy within five years, penalizing parents of illegitimate children, rewarding males who undergo vasectomy and tubal ligation for fertile women, and making "the patch" free for the poor with more than two children. In other words, Tony, the combination of cost (tax) and sanction could be powerful deterrents to runaway population growth!

Dr. Nestor P. Baylan, [email protected]
New York, August 06, 2004

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Dear Mr. Tony Abaya,

Thanks for your column of yesterday. I finally got a copy of Manila Standard
after much hassle (had to borrow the office copy of my daughter with the Soriano
Foundation). There were none on the road (along Roxas Blvd. to UN Ave.)
and the Shell station along UN, to my surprise, said a guy bought all the copies
before 8 am yesterday. I wonder why.

I will try to read your column every Thursday but would appreciate it if you will
copy me via email so I can easily forward to others.

Best regards,

Ed J.T. Tirona, [email protected]
August 06, 2004

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Dear Mr.  Abaya,

I agree with and fully support Rep. Edcel Lagman for his courageous effort
to  a sponsor a bill on the two-child policy.  While this may sound as the
Tagalogs say  "suntok sa buwan", I think the proposed bill is a landmark
proposal of national significance.

Even if President GMA chooses to play deaf and dumb on this
politically-charged issue, patriotic Filipinos should rally behind Rep.
Lagman and not let him do his fight alone.  His adversary, the Catholic
church, is too powerful, and it is a pity if Rep. Lagman ends up looking
more like the legendary Don Quixote dela Mancha.

Historically, the Catholic Church had always taken a dominating posture over
the minds of the Filipino people.  The painful lessons of our 400 years of
enslavement under  the decadent teachings of this institution is too real to
forget.  It was the Church that destroyed our early civilization which
included a phonetic alphabet, form of writing and belief in one God, the
Bathala.  Rizal and Del Pilar fought a bitter word war against the Church
and our patriotic forefathers died in battlefields because they wanted to
expel the abusive friars and de-empower the Catholic church.  And as we know
the fall of the first republic staved off any inimical action on the church
and encouraged the renewal of its dominance up until these days.

If it is not yet clear to many, history tells us that the Catholic church is
actually anti-Filipino.  It has no real concern for the well-being of our
people.  It educates our youth not to make them useful citizens but to make
them apologists of the Church.  Rizal took his fight with the Church to his
grave but the Dominican Fathers never forgave Rizal and continued the fight
to this day.  Are they now teaching the Rizal course?    The Church profits
from its dominant influence on our people and will protect this position
against any form of attack.  And it sees the Lagman bill as one of these
kinds of attack that could shake off its powerful influence over the minds
of our people.

I lived in Tondo for a while  and I have seen  how the barong-barong creates
the environment that whets man's basic desires, to the extent that babies
are often borne out of father and daughter.  GMA may be right in
prioritizing the alleviation of poverty, but this is not accomplished with a
magic wand.  Somehow, we have to put the horse ahead of the cart, so to
speak, and in a manner of speaking, sandbagged the deluge before we can
build the dam.

Virgilio Leynes, [email protected]
August 06, 2004

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Dear Sir Abaya,

I cannot believe that you are supporting the concept of Isa, Dalawa - Tama na.  To you, that is Population Management.  I will have to write to you soon today - disagreeing on all points. And I hope you will archive it, too.  The bill that is hot in Congress about population control is a total waste of time and a distraction from the urgent issues facing the country. The leadership in the Philippines have failed and are still failing to put their heads together to address the real roots of the problem: PRIORITIZING NEEDS:

1. Debt of P5.3 trillion - renegotiate repayment terms or prepare to meet requirements for debt cancellation or forgiveness; or repeal the law (under Marcos) setting aside mandatory repayment above all else - 65% of the annual budget is allocated for debt service? Dominican Republic's debt service is less than 6%.  How did they do that?

2. Open market economies - what that means GMA knows;

3. Opportunities - jobs, free education, wage increases, skills training, access to modern tools, equipment, technology; export of human resource product (this is where population control will demise the $8Billion OFW remitances - equiv. to 1/2 of the Philippine government budget of P901 Billion proposed for 2005)

4. Health promotion, disease prevention, nutrition

5. National discipline, rule of law - law enforcement and judiciary recognizing and strengthening implementation of laws; protection of human rights and freedom;

6. Lack of corruption. Countries that rank #10 (no corruption)
have none or less mention of the word "corruption" in their laws.  The Philippines ranking #100 (statistics vary) has every law against corruption and the word "corruption" is written everywhere as much as it actually exists all over.

7. NO MORE BORROWING - foreign aid serves to make the country poorer.

Note: Statistics show that a Filipino citizen contributes an average of $127 towards the Philippine revenues while the government budget allocates an expenditure of $12 for every citizen. The per capita income of $1027 per citizen puts the Philippines way down the ranks above the "top 20 poorest nations", below the "top 100" better nations, rank 100 most corrupt nations (rank 1 less corrupt), rank 42 densely populated nation (rank 1 most dense) in this order: Macau (18,000 persons/sq.km.), Monaco (16,000 persons/sq.km), Hongkong (6,688 persons/sq.km), Singapore (6,430 persons/sq.km), Gibraltar-UK (5,000 persons/sq.km), Vatican (900 persons occupying less than 1/2 sq.km - 0.44 sq. km), Malta (1,260 persons/sq.km), Bermuda (1,200 persons/sq.km), Maldives(1070 persons/sq.km),Bahrain (987 per
sons/sq.km),etc.

Japan way down the rank of 32 (336 persons/sq.km) of a population of 127 million needs 11 million immigrants right now to supply its demand for labor.

The Philippines rank 42 (282 persons/sq.km) is able to meet the demand for labor in more than 150 countries worldwide. The world will have a shortage of 2 million nurses around 2010-2015 and the Philippines is the #1 donor of nurses to the whole world - most to US hospitals now short of 200-300,000.

Nowhere in history of nations that population control comes before economic boom or recovery. Rather, the opposite occurs - economic boom reduces fertility spontaneously.  Don't ask me why but I can still answer that.  Statistics prove that more population create wealth.  The problem is leadership - leaders fail to put their heads together.  Other factors figure into the state of Philippine economic status such as - productivity of the population granting that the Philippines produce large numbers of college graduates - there are no jobs for them, no tools for industry, manufacturing or technology, hence no skills development to augment or enhance their educational attainment.

We have 37% age 0-15 years old, and 3% over 65 years old - 40% of understandably unproductive population.  What does 60% of 86.242 million (July 2004 est.) or 53 million do (including government labor force, officials, leaders, and business communities? Where do we put the burden of economic recovery - not on the 40%! If we control population and the 60% age to their level of unproductivity, we are left with 37% to replace them who would have hardly produced babies - depopulated. The UN warns nations about their population control policies without addressing the "replacement" of their aging population.

My knowledge amounts to the conclusion that POPULATION MEANS WEALTH.  The problem lies in government and its leaders who do not know how to manage their population.

Elsa Bayani, [email protected]
August 06, 2004


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Great article.  Good policy.  Wonder what the nation has been waiting for? Disease or a war to decimate the population "naturally?"

[email protected]
August 07, 2004

MY REPLY. How about collision with the Swift-Tuttle comet, which is expected to happen sometime in August 2117? At the present rate, our population is doubling every 30 years. So by the year 2117, the Philippines will have a population of about 650 million! Figure it out yourself. Just ripe for a collision with a comet.

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I think Filipinos (81%, that is the RCC) have a
collective suicide pact.

Still they want to escape kapit talim even to the land
of Iraq.

Contradiction between deed and words is the sign of
desperation.

Ross Tipon, [email protected]
August 07, 2004

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I�d like to look at the issue of population and poverty differently.

The unilinear logic that views population as directly affecting or causing poverty is distorted and distorting. Such a framework validates the absurd notion that if you have no population then you�ll have unlimited prosperity. Who�ll be left to enjoy it?

So, obviously zero population isn�t the argument of those who want to limit Philippine population. Is there is an ideal population? What is it? Who�s going to even say what it is? Government? The Church? The United Nations? The First World? Is the ideal man-land ratio 1 person per 1 sq. km.? One hundred per sq. km.?  Is there a man-land ratio that�s been known to bring about growth, wealth, not to speak happiness and contentment? When Fernam de Magalhains reached the archipelago there w ere, accdg. to some educated guess, just over 750,000 people here. Were they wealthy and happy?

Macao is a cautionary tale. Its total land area is all of 27.3 km2, its total population 448, 500. Its density is 16,428 per square km.

Compare the Philippines. With a land area of 298,170 sq km, its density is 187.81 per square km or a little over 1% of Macao�s. It may take us 100 years to reach Macao�s density.

Macao, despite its extreme density, has achieved near First World status. It defies the wisdom of the �overpopulationist� logic.

The �overpopulation� argument is not only false, it is distorting. Since it assigns to population a false value, it points to wrong solutions. Thus, it will seek to penalize families and communities where couples are allowed to have more than 2 children. The �excess� children and their parents will be deprived of state benefits and services (maybe, they ought to be allowed to starve to death?), and their communities will also be punished. This will not just NOT stop couples from bearing more children but will in fact stultify communities whose internal revenue allotments will be withheld. The medicine to a false diagnosis becomes poison that is sure to kill the patient.

Rather than wage war against the unborn and the already living, the solutions to poverty, underdevelopment, intellectual infertility, wasted resources, should consist of a mix of economic, financial, commercial, intellectual, natural, moral policies that will unleash the total wealth of our land and peoples. Instead of diverting billions and billions of funds to reduce population (to buy condoms/IUDs/pills/abortion paraphernalia, TV-print-radio-Net space, to hire control agents), these monies should instead go to programs that will reduce corruption (that devours fundings for programs and deprives communities of benefits such as good roads, ample classrooms, well-paid teachers, etc.), pour more money to development projects, capital for farm modernization as well as entrepreneurial/industrial/manufacturing initiatives especially in the countryside, unleash the creative genius of the tens of millions of our people whose brain power is the real asset of this nation.

If we are able to focus on total development�of our natural, human, intellectual, and moral resources�population growth will stabilize by itself. This is the experience of First World economies. This, rather than going after the unborn and the already born, is the fight we ought to wage as the moral equivalent of war.

Vicente C. de Jesus, [email protected]
August 07, 2004

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Hi, Mr. Abaya,

You do have a penchant for having a line jump out of the page of your article.  This time, it was "Vatican Roulette" as another term of the rhythm method.  The statistics you gave on the progress (or lack of it) vis-a-vis the majority religion shows that culture determines how a people decides the course of things.  The Catholic Church in the Philippines is just as bad as the corrupt civil service but it seems that in the issue of birth control, the Church is being used as an inconvenient scapegoat for irresponsible nightly humping.

There is no alibi or plausible reason I could give for not having written the article on Norway yet, except that I am still plagued by the sense of hopelessness and helplessness re the Philippine situation.  Each time I try to psyche myself into beginning, the thought that runs through my head is, "what is the point?"  Give me another week, please?

Btw, are you related to Alejandro Abaya?  He is one writer that I truly admire.

Rose Olsen, [email protected]
August 07, 2004

MY REPLY. �Vatican Roulette� is not my invention. I first saw or heard that term maybe thirty years ago. No I am not related to Alejandro Abaya. Perhaps you mean Hernando Abaya. He was an uncle. He died more than ten years ago.

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Subj: WOW...latest Pinoy hero has 8 children...therefore, overpopulation  
           must be OK?
Date: 8/8/04 7:14:22 PM Pacific Daylight Time


There are more serious social and sociological problems than political problems in the Philippines.

But there are infinitely more political journalists,political analysts, political pundits, and political gurus, and political propagandists than sociologists.

(who can and are able to report and analyze the more serious and overwhelming social and sociological problems that have been plaguing the Pilipino nation and its society.)

Therefore, the social and sociological problems are more often than not, simply politicized.  

Angelo de la Cruz has 8 children. Therefore, he is part of the overpopulation problem.
But he "saved" not only his life but those of others, with the Philippines pulling out of the "coalition of the willing". Therefore, he is also a hero.  

Let us resolve this, the Pilipino way.  Let us forgive all trespasses.  Let us forget all ill-feelings.  Let us deny any fault or wrong has been committed. "Forgive, Forget, Deny..."

------------------o0o-----------------------------

This means the problems are discussed and debated, written about, publicized and even widely-propagandized, on radio, TV and broadsheet papers (even tabloids) but seldom, if ever, analyzed seriously nor deeply enough,  into  viable solutions.  Why?

Call it KINAIYA  (Visayan term) - which means - "it's the way it is". Pilipinos do it, do it this way, because it is their "kinaiya" - i.e., it is their custom to doing things - the way things are.  Embodied in this expression is an acceptance of conventional and widely-held beliefs, values, and social behaviors as givens. They hold certain beliefs or adhere to certain values without being concerned and completely disregard how these beliefs or values came to be accepted as correct and normal.
(i.e., Pakikisama, brad.  Nakakahiya, pare.  Utang na loob, bosing.)

There is enough blame to go around. But media must own up to its share of responsibility and accountability. It has arrogated unto itself the role of being the "conscience of the public". Yet, it has not religiously policed its own ranks to ensure that unscrupulous practitioners of their trade desist or are prevented from obfuscating facts and manipulating the truth in the daily pursuit of their source of livelihood.  

Here, again, there is enough deceptive and manipulative mind-setting sloganeerings that have served no profound nor honest purpose than to lull the poor and unsuspecting citizens into a blind acceptance of  false"amor propio" (or fake self-esteem and illusory self-respect).

Messrs Antonio C. Abaya and Juan L. Mercado have written informative, fair and balanced analyses about different aspects of this elusive and misleading 'amor propio' propaganda campaign - i.e., "WOW, PHILIPPINES," - which evidently was promoted by Senator Dick Gordon during his incumbency as Chairman of Subic Base Management Authority (SBMA).

Lately, ABS-CBN-TFC has taken up the ego-boosting initiative and has been blitzing-brainwashing  non-stop, ad infinitum, ad nauseam...every TV seconds that they can muster and cajole  the unsuspecting public into submission, acquiescence, and belief that "WOW, ANG GALING TALAGA NG PINOY..."

And what is wrong with this?  Simple.  It is not true.  It sends the wrong message.  It does not encourage. It does not motivate.  It deceives the public into believing that MAGALING NGA ANG PINOY.  Again, is this so wrong?

So, I challenged..."Saan magaling ang Pinoy?"  Where is the Pilipino good?  Where does he excel?  Can we capitalize on it?  Be globally competitive with it? Enrich and empower the Pilipino society through its exploitation? I want an answer. Straightforward. Honest. Some answers that I can hang my dollars on. Let's hear it.

I still have to hear some specifics from those who promote this same illusion and falsehood, particularly those who deign to be offended by my "How dare you talk about Pilipinos so lowly! The problem with other Pilipinos....etc "(cacophony of rationalizations, lamentations follow.)

Actually, I don't think lowly of my "kapwa Pilipinos". But I will yield to a prejudice against those, specially in media, or have access to media who abuse the power and far-reaching influence of the media to profess even the untruth for self-interests, pecuniary or political gains, or even simply because they are ill-or-misinformed themselves. And this, naturally, includes those who use "entertainment" as a medium to "sell their mindset" openly or otherwise.

The job of politicians is to legislate and govern. The job of media is to deliver the news about how the politicians legislate and govern - good, verified reports and analyses based on validated information, presented in a  fair and balanced manner. It's time Philippine media own up to it.

The role of entertainment media is to entertain (not to feign participation in nation building). The viewing public is not totally naive to believe otherwise. ABS-CBN-TFC and those similarly engaged owe the public this much.

For as the world and its markets globalize, the need for specialization (another way of saying - "minding and mining one's own core competence") becomes not only crucial for progress, but critical to one's very own survival. If you want to legislate, be a statesman.  If you want to be a journalist, know the facts before you write about these.  If you want to be an entertainer, be an actor.

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OVERPOPULATION is a serious social and sociological problem. Particularly, in the chronically impoverished nation of 7,107 (named) islands. Unless food production is accelerated geometrically, and some form of food subsidy is undertaken, the Philippines will soon have the record for having the most undernourished citizens in the world.

Messrs Johnny Mercado (syndicated journalist), and Antonio C. Abaya (Tapatt.org) Jose "Boy" Montelibano writer of PDI and civic leader of Gawad Kalinga fame, Ellen Tordesillas (PCIJ contributing writer and Editorial consultant of ABS-CBN "Strictly Politics) have all been writing about this  OVERPOPULATION problem. They have each written informative analyses about specific aspects of this dreadful social and sociological problem.  

We need more information about this problem  We need more minds to pore over it. Study it objectively.  Formulate immediately - even stop-gap remedies to avert, reduce and contain current levels of starvation and malnourishment. .  Plan mid-term and long term solutions.

I have attached here another viewpoint about the problem from Sonny Juico, an associate who has been writing and discussing the very same problem of OVERPOPULATION and its attendant consequence POVERTY,  (for at least five years now), but from an entirely different PRACTICAL (AND STREET HONEST) point of view - that of an ordinary citizen, who is genuinely concerned about  the media inspired and insistent "portrayal-betrayal" of the

"Pilipino as being much better than what he has actually been able to demonstrate thru solid accomplishments."


"If honesty is the best policy. And dumb politicians make the laws. How the hell are we going to stop the vicious cycle of stupidity and hypocrisy?"

--------------------------o0o------------------------

There are just too many damned and dumb "politicians" pretending to be statesmen; propagandists, PR-men and advertising agents acting like "nation-builders"; and media feigning to be the "society's conscience" while sensationalizing everything for its own self-interest.

You want to be funny?  Be a comedian.  You want to be a president? At least learn how to act like one.

Pepeton J�anton, [email protected]
August 10, 2004

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Tony,

Anent your, as always excellent, article on population, here's my latest missive on the subject.

Cheers,

Peter  Wallace, [email protected]
August 12, 2004

NOTE. Peter Wallace�s article, �Will the Philippines Prove Malthus Right?� will be archived in the Reference Material section of this website, under the heading �On Population.�


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