 |
 |
| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| Gunfight at OK Corral By Antonio C. Abaya Written Nov. 22, 2005 For the Standard Today, November 24 issue The American Heritage Dictionary defines �Hobson�s Choice� as �an apparent freedom of choice with no real alternative.� This term was coined after Thomas Hobson, a 17th century English liveryman, who required his customers to take the next available horse rather than give them a choice. In a sense, this is what the Philippine public is facing after the most severe political crisis to have visited this unfortunate country since the martyrdom of Ninoy Aquino in 1983. We are being asked to �take the next available horse� in proposed parliamentary elections in 2006 or 2007, without really giving us a choice. In the �Total Solution� proffered by former President Fidel Ramos, President Arroyo and all other elected national officials (vice-president, senators, congressmen) would resign by February 14 2006 to give way to a shift to the parliamentary system of government, for which elections would be held in May 2006. This would give GMA a graceful exit. She can continue blaming �the system� for our malaise, as she has done, and choose to retire from it completely, without being held accountable for anything. In which case, the position of prime minister will go to either Jose de Venecia or Fidel Ramos or Danding Cojuangco. Or, if the emerging constitutional amendments do not bar her from it, and she feels she has recovered sufficiently from the battering of the last five months, President Arroyo may run for a parliamentary seat in her electoral district in Pampanga, and handily win. Her party Kampi, now formally coalesced with De Venecia�s and Ramos� Lakas (�the party of thieves� according to Teddyboy Locsin) will also handily win majority of seats in parliament because they still command the loyalty of more than half the incumbent mayors and governors. Besides, the Abalos Comelec will not have learned how to count votes correctly by 2006 or 2007. The same scenario will unfold if FVR�s �Total Solution� is not adopted and parliamentary elections were held in 2007 instead, as some trapos have proposed. In the highly unlikely event that President Arroyo resigns or is forced to resign, the constitutional successor, Vice-President Noli de Castro, takes over. The US Embassy itself, in one of its reports to home office in Washington and leaked to the Philippine Daily Inquirer, described former TV newsreader De Castro as �inept�, under whom �the Philippines would be worse off.� Or words to that effect. The Black-and-White Movement (black and blue after its advertised website, blacknwhite.com, turned out to be a porno site featuring black men having sex with white women) has given De Castro until the end of this month to take an antagonistic position towards the incumbent Gloria. If De Castro ignores the ultimatum, as he certainly will and should, the Black and White Movement threatens to support Senate President Franklin Drilon, whose biggest sin is probably that he has been around for so long people no longer remember what he has done and hasn�t done, and couldn�t care less what he did and didn�t do.. Meanwhile, the Bukluran ng Katotohanan, representing an unlikely wide spectrum of positions from Coryist to communist, has held a public forum �to seek the truth� about alleged cheating in the 2004 elections. But its predictable and pre-determined conclusion is not awaited by anyone with bated breath. Its chairman, the sepulchral Tito Guingona, has changed sides so often he has little credibility left. It is not impossible that he mistook the Mendiola rally, where he was hosed down to within an inch of hypothermia, to be a pro-GMA rally, so few were the attendees and so tight the security cordon. It is becoming clear and acceptable to more and more people, especially among the normally cautious middle class, that only a revolutionary government can set things right in this blighted and benighted country. The question is, whose revolutionary government? The most blatant maneuvers for a revolutionary government became evident last July-August from trapos associated with deposed President Joseph Estrada, principally Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay and San Juan Mayor JV Ejercito, choreographed by Erap lieutenant Boy Morales, sometimes with the participation of communists, other times without, with former AFP chief-of-staff, former defense secretary and former executive secretary Renato de Villa as point man. But a revolutionary (a.k.a transition, caretaker) government engineered by trapos is a contradiction in terms and is rightly viewed as being no more than an attempt at power grab, in this case, an attempt to restore Erap to the presidency so that he can unilaterally clear his name of the pending plunder charges against him. No wonder the middle class has shied away from their rallies. Former defense secretary and former AFP general Fortunato Abat was also vocal about setting up a revolutionary government and came out publicly with his program for such a government as early as mid-2004, but despite (or maybe because of) his team-up with the Erap trapos, he has failed to generate middle class support for it. (I myself have been calling for a revolutionary government since 2002, but since I have no guns, and have not aligned with trapos or communists, no one has paid any attention to me.) Even before Abat, of course, was former colonel, former senator Gringo Honasan whose Program for National Renewal provided the ideological underpinnings for the Oakwood Mutiny of July 2003 and the revolutionary government that he was going to set up. Because of his tactical need for Erap�s money, he and the mutineers were going to restore Erap to the presidency for at least three days, enough time for Erap to clear his name of the plunder charges against him, after which Gringo�s junta would take over, with himself, Kuya, as undisputed head of junta. Last I heard, Gringo has teamed up with Renato de Villa to try to form yet another revolutionary government, this time supposedly without the help or participation of the trapos and the communists, apparently realizing that association with these dead beat groups would sour the middle class on their enterprise. But Honasan and De Villa will have to contend with another team-up with similar intentions and ideological orientation. Sen. Panfilo Lacson and Evangelist Eddie Villanueva have apparently joined forces, ostensibly to protest the alleged fraud in the 2004 elections in which both of them were losing candidates. Villanueva has made public utterances in the past supportive of a revolutionary government, undoubtedly with himself as head of it, buoyed up as he is by a prediction supposedly made in 2001 in Los Angeles by one Cindy Jacob, a Born Again American preacher, that the Philippine military would soon mutiny in favor of �righteous leadership,� a favorite Villanueva buzz phrase. Perhaps because he is a senator of the realm, Lacson has not talked publicly about a revolutionary government, but Lacson is no saint and he was not born yesterday. It is unlikely that he will take a subordinate position to Villanueva or De Villa or Honasan should the situation deteriorate into a Gunfight at the OK Corral. I do not know who will play Wyatt Earp or Doc Holliday or the Clanton brothers. But the communists, who have been trying to grab power through revolutionary means since the 1940s, play the role of militant Injuns stridently protesting that the land belongs to them, but ignored by everyone. And GMA? A pint-sized sheriff with a tall hat and high-heeled boots, whose badge is not recognized by the gun-slinging machos. Given the Hobson�s Choices before us, it is no wonder that everyone who can wants to leave Tombstone. ***** Reactions to [email protected] or fax 824-7642. Other articles in www.tapatt.org OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |
| Reactions to �Gunfight at OK Corral� Dear Tony--- Just read your article �Gunfight at OK Corral�. Not only is it extremely witty and oozing with the kind of sense of humour in order to be able to grin and bear everything, it strikes some real and true notes. You are very good. Mabuhay. Josie Lichauco, [email protected] November 24, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hahahah! Funny and wonderful piece! Anna de Brux, [email protected] Belgium, November 24, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hello Tony, "Gunfight" is an amusing analogy but a bit very farfetched. You sound so alarmist, used the term "revolutionary" too many times. Are you trying to scare us ordinary citizens with your wild prognostications. With perhaps nothing else to write about, you are repeating your scenarios ad nauseum. (You mean �ad nauseam.� The use of the word �revolutionary� did not come solely from me but from the individuals who have been planning their �revolutions�: Honasan, Abat, Binay, Nemenzo Villanueva, De Villa, Morales, the communists. Should I just ignore them? Besides, haven�t you heard of foiling or discouraging a plot by exposing it? ACA) That's enough. Why not write about the sea games or the prospective 5-6% growth in the economy next year, the strong peso, the rising stock prices, heavy inflow of dollars, a new move to build low cost housing nationwide, the real estate upturn, prospects for a ceasefire, etc... Something more encouraging, more motivating, more hopeful instead of all your depressing scenarios about politicians. Willy Segovia, [email protected] November 24, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, This is incredible but true. Your description of GMA as a pint-sized Sheriff of Tombstone was very apt. In the late 50s, there was a comic book titled SHERIFF OF TOMBSTONE ( Charlton Publishing ), wherein the hero was a PINT-SIZED sheriff, named Luke Short. But he was a tough hombre and a two-fisted lawman. He made life miserable for the outlaws and bad men in Tombstone, Arizona. As for who will play Wyatt Earp and his brothers, Doc Holliday, Ike Clanton and his gang which includes Johnny Ringo, it remains to be seen. But I could hazard a guess: when the gun smoke clears, gunslinger Ping Lacson will still remain standing...and so with ageing Pistolero, ex-President Ramos... and the pint-sized Sheriff of Tombstone. Auggie Surtida, [email protected] Tigbauan, Iloilo, November 24, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Antonio Abaya, Our country is suffering from a socio-political disease that is completely incurable, as I see it, because the politicians who are supposed to be the doctors of this disease are making it worse. The prognosis is critical... Communism which is already an obsolete concept forgotten by the sons and daughters of Mao (though I am not really sure if Mao has illegitimate children) is still being pushed by leaders who are like Japanese soldiers of World War ll hiding in the deep jungles in Asia thinking that Japan is still ruled by Emperor Hirohito. The different political forces that are tearing our country apart are like hyenas who want to acquire the biggest meat of power to perpetrate the family dynasties that they have created to continue that economic advantage, legitimate or otherwise. Another disease which we can call EDSA syndrome has infected our students, nuns and clergies etc. who want to solve everything by going to the streets to topple the present government without allowing the rule of law take its course; not realizing that any kind of political instability is directly proportional to economic instability if allowed to continue indefinitely. If the Gunfight at OK Corral happens, the Filipino baby boomers will come back to our beloved country to bury the dead and hopefully the younger, more open-minded generation will start a more competitive Philippines. Emil Diaz, Jr., [email protected] Vancouver, Canada, November 25, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww No one really gives a shit. Nothing has changed and nothing will. Not in my lifetime, at least. They can say all they want, It�s ingrained in our bones, we don�t have a choice. We can�t isolate the countryand start off like China during Mao's regime Too late! Globalization is in, we're poor, the US owns us anyway. Let�s be like Guam and Hawaii. Huwag na tayo umasa sa politico. Julie Hernandez, [email protected] November 25, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hiya Manong Tony, From the Capistown point of view, all the politicians in the RP are dreaming. They dream of untold riches, vast landholdings, fast cars and loose women, etc., not necessarily in that order, which are all to be derived from public office. Rarer than a philatelic error is a true statesman who still pines for a better and more prosperous motherland. An individual who would place public service above and before self interest is fast becoming a myth. I am hard pressed to name even one. At the moment, however, their dreams of unlimited political booty, extensive influence and honor, among others, are turning into one big unending nightmare. We have now reached a dilemma. We are damned if she stays, damned if she goes. Has anyone noticed, or is it just my perception that absolute governments are more stable than our very democratic Republic? I might never know. I don�t have the time and wherewithal to examine all the existing examples like the monarchical ones like Spain, England, Japan or even Monaco where no one holds elections as to who will be the next king. I will just mention one state that comes to mind, the Vatican. The Pope for life is chosen by an electoral College of Cardinals that also hold their positions for life. Building up a campaign war chest is the furthest from their minds. There's just no need for it. The entire worldwide body of the church accepts the election as fair and even offers prayers for the new Pope. There still is a lot of politicking and democracy, mind you, but these are limited to within the confines of the Synod. Outside of the college, all edicts that emanate from the Vatican are absolute. Errors are righted by another edict annulling the previous erroneous one. Simple. And since the politics is so limited, the Church machinery churns smoothly all the way down to the last parish priest. Opposition is coursed from the faithful to their parish priest to the bishops, archbishops and cardinals and eventually to the Pope himself. Since he is beholden to no one, he makes a decision which is based on the right thing to do. The only politics involved remains within the Vatican. When there is more opposition or non compliance, then some Vatican residents end their life long positions by just abruptly dying of old age. Then the Faithful offer more prayers for the latter�s salvation. Simple When the Filipino is outside the RP, he shines amazingly. When he is here in the RP in the company of other amazing achievers, he cannot accept anyone else better than him (he who had done so well outside the RP). We need to go back to the Rajah system, were the leader�s word was absolute. When opposition shows up, he or the Rajah just abruptly die of old age, naturally or coaxed. Period. And Life goes on smoothly for the rest of the village. Shades of Martial Law? No, just a new Alpha Male is all. You can always spot from among the litter who will be the next one to contest the Rajaship Rafael Santos II, [email protected] Roxas City, November 25, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Thank you, Mr. Abaya, for your insights. In my case, I am telling some of my friends here to please budget a little bit for the cotton balls, medicines, some food, crutches, wheelchairs, used clothing that we might have to send to the Philippines if the Gunfight at the OK Corral will escalate into a Suharto-in-1965 or an honest to goodness civil war which might involve superpowers wanting to test the effectiveness of their weapons on us. After all, we are just Filipinos. Cesar Torres, [email protected] November 26, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww (Through the tapatt yahoogroup) STRATEGIES FOR PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC TAKE-OFF I would like to thank Mr. Antonio Abaya for including me since months ago in his e-mail distribution. I am an admirer of his writings and I am impressed not only by his logical and common-sense thinkingbut also by the wealth of information at his fingertips. May I humbly suggest that he write a book on STRATEGIES FOR PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC TAKE OFF. It does not matter that his ideas are not necessarily appreciated by the present rent-free (and overstaying?) tenant in Malacanang--she has not really shown the savvy of a topnotch economist in the first place--but Mr. Abaya's valid ideas on economic matters should be preserved in permanent record and disseminated through a book, for the sake of future administrations and generations who can certainly profit from them. Marcelo L. Tecson, [email protected] San Miguel, Bulacan, November 25, 2005 MY REPLY. Thank you for your suggestion. Perhaps in the next government. Actually, my �book� has been published, electronically, in www.tapatt.org where my articles since 2001 are archived and grouped together by subject matter. It is not just economic strategies that we need. We also badly need a political make-over and some social engineering. And underlying all these changes, a statement of national purpose has to be articulated by a credible national leader. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww (Through the tapatt yahoogroup) If a revolutionary government is needed, so be it. As I said before, things will get worse first before it starts getting better. To get some immediate credibility, I suggest that they call for an election as soon as possible. They allow only legitimate taxpayers to be the ones allowed to vote. I know this is controversial, but I believe that this can solve or minimize a lot of election or campaign gimmicks that tend to fool and/or mislead the jobless as well as the poor. Vote buying is one of them. Taxpayers can make sure that the people they elect are truly servants of the people and can be held accountable. Once public awareness has been established, even the corrupt officers of the Bureau of Customs and BIR would find it difficult to pocket money due to the government. I look forward to seeing that even if it takes a generation . I know we can do it. Bombing Moll, [email protected] November 25, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Calling a spade a spade Dear sir, I have been reading your columns and I am very appreciative that you call a spade a spade, by having no qualms in locking horns with the communists in this country. I admire your courage and wit. Which is not what I could say for our supposed leaders in government. �An early ceasefire with the CPP/NPA will improve the image of the Philippines as the country hosts the 23rd SEA Games�� or words to that effect. I cannot believe that intelligent people such as Senator Pangilinan and Rep Marcos can be so na�ve as to call for an early truce with rebel groups thinking that it will stop the violence. If they think that a ceasefire will stop the NPA�s from bombing cell sites, killing soldiers or that it will induce them from disrupting the SEA Games, they probably missed the announcement of Gregorio Rosal that his comrades are out to overthrow the government. And what better way to accomplish this than by conducting mischief, if not outright terror, to embarrass the government as the country hosts the games? We will not win the favor or approval of our ASEAN neighbors, some grappling with their own security problems, by giving breathing space and freedom of movement to terrorists. But with or without SEA Games, who still believes that any truce will prompt the NPAs to keep their weapons and explosives and go home to their families to enjoy a break? No, no. That can�t be. There is an order from the Netherlands to increase the tempo of the attacks, and these must be carried out, games and Christmas notwithstanding. Especially with the upcoming anniversary of the Communist Party of the Philippines this December, Ka Roger�s band of bandits still have quotas to meet in terms of killings, assassinations, extortion and bombings. After all, what would a CPP anniversary be without these statistics to gloat over? How can the NPA ask for new funds next year from their hidden but visible benefactors if there are not enough mangled bodies, weeping widows and orphans, toppled towers and burning buses that they can submit as clearing for last year�s CDF? I say, let the games begin and let our soldiers do their jobs. More power to you! Isabelo Gatmaitan, [email protected] November 26, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Reaction to �North Rails, Finally� (Sept. 19, 2004) Dear Mr. Abaya, You are correct. We need the railways. I am Jose Leonidas (51) and have been an advocate of using train which is the answer to mass transportation needs of this 82 million Filipino. My dream is not just Caloocan and Malolos train system. My dream is that this archipelago is interconnect with railways system. Imagine a train tunnel with vehicular transport system from Luzon to Mindanao. The ordinary working masses cannot afford to buy even a second hand car. The trains are just the solution to this need. We need to start now. If not now, when? As to the North Rail, I hope the design on level crossing should be either the train goes up the crossing or the road crossing flies up the railroad crossing. This ensures high speed trains. Furthermore, trains should have tilting capability to compensate for the centrifugal force when it curves. Let us influence the policy makers with tsunami of information on the logic of railways. AL Jose Leonidas, [email protected] Friends of Philippines Railways November 26, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Reaction to �The Failure of Revolution� (Nov.08, 2005) Dear Mr. Abaya: Even if we didn't have any minimum wage law, it won't make any difference. Our Constitution prohibits foreigners from owning more than 40 per cent of voting stock in corporations. This Constitutional limitation has been pointed out by many as one of the drawbacks in attracting foreign investment in our country. The 1971 Constitution continued the Constitutional policy of not allowing foreigners to owe more than 40 % of the voting stock in corporations and the 1987 Constitution included this also. I am glad now that President Arroyo has taken responsibility in asking Congres to amend the Constitution directly and not to rely on any Constitutional Convention to do this. The power to decide the levels of foreign equity participation in our country should be left to Congress. Ramon A. del Gallego, [email protected] November 26, 2005 MY REPLY. You are saying, in effect, that South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia overtook us because they allowed foreigners to own more than 40% of the capital stock of domestic corporations. But you offered no evidence to support that contention. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Reaction to �The Anatomy of Failure� (Nov. 13, 2005) Dear Mr. Abaya: One of the reasons why our country failed in its export drive is the policy of our government in maintaining a stable exchange rate. During the 1950's when our country was facing a severe balance of payments problem, the government opted for exchange controls simply because the Laurel-Langley Treaty prohibited our government from devaluating the peso. (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the People�s Republic of China used exchange controls during their formative postwar years to control the inflow and outflow of dollars. But that did not prevent them from building an industrial base and gearing their economies towards the export of manufactured goods. ACA) The Quirino Administration instituted a policy of exchange controls which rationed dollars for import. The reason why the Liberal Party was wiped out during the elections in 1951 and 1953 was because this policy of import controls forced the closure of many firms because they could not obtain dollars to finance their imports. This caused a recession in our economy and recessions are never good for elections. The Quirino Administration did not realize that by instituting a policy of import controls, they would cause the contraction of our economy. (The reason why the Liberal Party was wiped out in 1953 was because the very popular Ramon Magsaysay was the presidential candidate of the Nacionalista Party against the very unpopular Elpidio Quirino of the Liberal Party. Most Filipino voters do not understand import controls and other arcana of economic theories to make it the basis for choosing their candidates. ACA) Because of the phobia of every administration to institute measures that would result in inflation, the government has resisted any efforts to devaluate the currency. What Pres. Quirino should have done to solve our balance of payments problem that rocked the Liberal Party Administration was to raise the tariff in lieu of the fact that the Laurel Langley Treaty prohibited our government from devaluating the currency. However, due to the phobia of the government -- which exist to the present -- to undertake measures that would increase the inflation rate, the government refused to consider raising the tariffs to solve our balance of payments problem. The economic technocrats of the Quirino Administration thought that imposing import controls would accelerate our economic development since the government was in direct control over all import activities in our country through their control of the exchange rate. They be lieved that they had a powerful weapon to influence the economic activities of our country. What the economic technocrats of the Quirino Administration failed to realize is that imposition of import controls would cause a recession in our economy. (Again, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the other tigers used import controls to protect their industries against foreign competition. Without import controls, they would not have matured into the industrial exporting economies that they have become. In the case of the Philippines, import controls were used only to protect import-substituting industries, not to build an export-oriented economy. ACA) The government could not be totally faulted because of its phobia to take measures that would increase the inflation rate in our country. In every election the issue of high prices is a very hot item. In a republican government such as this our politicians would be naturally sensitive to any measure that would increase the inflation rate. With the devaluation of the peso during the Macapagal Administration, Pres. Macapagal followed the policy of his predecessors to resist any economic measure that would increase the inflation rate. Hence Macapagal resisted every suggestion that the peso be devaluated to correct our balance of payments problem. The Marcos Administration followed the policy of all his predecessors in resisting devaluation because of its effect on the inflation rate. (Not true. In 1960, the exchange rate was two pesos to one US dollar. Through 25 years of Macapagal and Marcos, the peso was devalued several times. By the time Marcos was overthrown in 1986, the exchange rate was down to about 20 pesos to the dollar. ACA) The sudden devaluation of the currency in 1970 caused a recession in our economy. The Marcos Administration was placed in the same boat that the Quirino Administration faced. There was unrest in the country and the political opposition as well as the NPA and Muslim rebels tried to extract maximum advantage from Marcos' predicament. All of these disorders ended up with the declaration of martial law. Prior to the devaluation of the currency in 1970, Jesus Cabarrus, one of the leading export tycoons in our country, suggested that the government devaluate the currency in order to solve our balance of payments problems, but because the Marcos Administration like every administration before and after him had a phobia for inflation, Cabarrus was simply ignored by the government. (You should qualify the statement that Jesus Cabarrus was �one of the leading export tycoons in our country.� He was an exporter of mining products, i.e. ores and concentrates, not an exporter of manufactured goods. Devaluating the peso meant more pesos for every dollar that he earned, without creating the jobs that manufacturing finished products from those ore and concentrates would have created. ACA) The Marcos Administration during the martial law period insisted on a stable exchange rate in spite of worsening balance of payments problems. But this policy of resisting devaluation to solve our balance of payments problem could not held for long because of our persistent balance of payments problem. The result was the 300 % devaluation in 1983 which was one of the factors that led to the downfall of the government. Informed sources say that the 300 % devaluation in 1983 caused a contraction of our economy by 10 %. The Aquino Administration continued the policy of all her predecessors in maintaining a stable exchange rate. However, knowing that the Quirino and Marcos Administration faced a severe crisis because of persistent balance of payments problem, the Aquino Administration and all her People's Power successors modified the policy of all administrations in maintaining a stable exchange rate by instituting a policy of gradual devaluation of the currency. Because of this policy of gradual devaluation of the currency, the value of the peso to the dollar fell from P 20 in 1986 to P 55 that it is now. By instituting a policy of gradual devaluation of the peso by increments of about 30 %, the People's Power government avoided recessions caused by the sudden large devaluation of the currency. These recessions caused the downfall of the Quirino and Marcos Administrations something which they were hoping to avoid. It appears that devaluation is the only solution to prod the export sector to export more. In your article, you said that only Pres. Ramos realized the importance of increasing exports and instituted measures to help the export sector. All administrations took care of the export sector and the reason why the export sector was not performing as good as it should is because the government consistently refused to devaluate the currency. Without devaluation, the exporters will be lukewarm to the efforts of the government to increase our exports. (You sound as if you believe that devaluation was something we were at liberty to choose or not. In fact, devaluation was forced on us, time and time again, because of the perennial trade deficits we have suffered, almost every year, since 1960. That means that almost every year we were spending more dollars than we were earning through exports, tourism, etc. Under that circumstance, devaluation was inevitable as night follows day. (By contrast, for example, the Japanese yen in 1960 was valued at 320 yen to one US dollar. But because of their extraordinary success in exporting manufactured goods, the Japanese were forced by their trading partners (like the US) to revalue their currency upwards, again and again, to make their products more expensive in the US market and to make US products cheaper in the Japanese market, and thus reduce Japan�s perennial trade surplus. So it is no wonder the yen in 2005 is valued at only about 119 to the dollar. Because of its huge trade surplus, China is now being forced by its trading partners to revalue its yuan upwards for the same reason.) (In the case of the Philippine peso, it has been increasing in value the past few weeks because of the inflow of OFW remittances, not because we are now exporting more than we are importing. We are still running trade deficits every year and we are still attracting only a few tourists. That means that if there were no OFW remittances, the exchange rate would probably be about 80 to 90 pesos to the dollar by now. ACA) You also mentioned the failure of our tourism industry to attract as much visitors as our ASEAN neighbors. One of the reasons for the failure of our government to attract as much visitors as our ASEAN neighbors is also connected with the phobia of the government in considering measures that would increase the inflation rate in our country. (Not true. The government wants to attract more tourists but fails to do so because of poor marketing efforts, not because it is afraid of inflation. How many ads promoting the Philippines have you seen in CNN or BBC lately? Zero, while all our neighbors spend millions of dollars promoting their countries. Inflation has nothing to do with it. ACA) All our ASEAN neighbors have instituted a policy of managed float of their currency. This means that if they face a balance of payments crisis, the government would not hesitate to immediately devaluate the currency by 10 %. It is only the Philippines that has refused to follow the economic policies of our more successful neighbors. The policy of our government is to resist devaluation up to the end in spite of any balance of payments crisis, until the IMF-World Bank forces the government to devaluate the currency. (Also not true. If you go to Tokyo or Seoul or Taipeh or Singapore or Hong Kong or KL or Bangkok or Jakarta, you will note that the exchange rates very every day, usually several times in one day. This is dictated by the supply and demand of dollars or mark or yen in their economy, not by fears of inflation. An economy that runs a shortage of these hard currencies in relation to the demand for them, will suffer pressure for devaluation. ACA) Thanks very much for telling me about the KMU. This is the first time I got that information. (Where have you been all these years that you know nothing about the KMU? ACA) Ramon A. del Gallego, [email protected] November 26, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Reaction to �The Defeat of Revolution� (Nov. 15, 2005) Dear Mr. Abaya: Let me make comments on your article. First let us tackle the issue of population growth. Lest you forget, it was under the auspices of the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines that both Marcos and Estrada fell through a People's Power revolt. Due to the republican nature of our government, the influence of the Catholic Church cannot be discounted. Since they do influence a significant percentage of our electorate, no politician could ignore the wishes of the Catholic Church in our country. Because of the eagerness of the opposition during Marcos time to effect a change of government, they readily accepted the support of the CBCP to call a People's Power revolt to effect a change in our government. During the elections of 1983, it was the first time that the opposition got 43 % of their candidates elected into the Batasan Pambansa and the first act that these opposition assemblymen did during the first day of session of the Batasan Pambansa was to file an impeachment complaint against then President Marcos. Only one opposition assemblyman refused to sign the impeachment complaint against Pres. Marcos. (It was not the CBCP, but Cardinal Sin personally, who called for people to support the mutiny of Enrile, Ramos, Honasan, etc. in February 1986. Lest you forget, too, it was the middle class who spontaneously congregated in EDSA in December 2000-January 2001, to protest Erap�s blocked impeachment trial, without the CBCP urging them to do so. ACA) The People's Power government has consistently refused to enact measures that would offend the Bishops in our country. For example, they refused to legalize divorce. All previous administrations before the People's Power government has also kowtooed to the Bishops of our country and this included President Marcos. For as long as the CBCP opposes birth control, the government will be lukewarm in implementing birth control in our country. As I understand, the policy of birth control was insisted by the IMF- World Bank. With pressure from the IMF-World Bank, the government was caught in between the claws of the IMF-World Bank who controlled the loans given to us from abroad and the Bishops who had considerable influence on our voters. In order to please both parties, the government instituted a birth control program but was lukewarm in implementing it in deference to the opposition of the CBCP. (But some people had more guts than others. Juan Flavier ran for senator in 1995 and won, sixth in a field of more than 50, despite the campaign of Catholic bishops against him for supporting artificial methods of birth control. Whatever the reason, the facts remain that a) we have the highest population growth rate among the eight competing countries in East Asia; and b) we are also the poorest. ACA) On the question of the liberality of our government on our press, the issue was decided when there was a change of government during the ascendancy of Cory Aquino as President. During the time of Marcos, the government instituted many programs to curb the abuses of the press. This is one of the reasons why Marcos was called a dictator because many people did not like the measures that Marcos undertook to curb press abuse. In fact, Marcos is still being called a dictator up to this day. The measures instituted by the Marcos Administration to curb press abuse was very tame compared with the measures instituted by our neighbors, yet in spite of the leniency that Marcos undertook to curb press abuse, he was still labeled a dictator by people who thought that he went too far. (Marcos was a dictator but he was not able to give the people broad-based economic prosperity in exchange for diminished political rights, as the other dictators around us were able to. And this failure can be traced directly to his failure to build an export-oriented economy. (Those loudest in criticizing Marcos� treatment of the press were a) the liberals used to American-style absolute freedom of the press, and b) the communists who knew that restrictions on the press, where they had many allies, would deprive them of the platform from which to rail against the bourgeois state and government. ACA) During the Oakland Mutiny, Pres. Arroyo broadly hinted that if there is a widespread mutiny in the AFP, she will not hesitate to muzzle the press to protect the Republic contrary to all the guarantees of freedom written in the 1987 Constitution. Because the Oakland mutineers did not fight back when they were disarmed by the AFP, there was no reason for Pres. Arroyo to resort to extreme measures in muzzling the press. If you think that the government is too lenient on the press, pray that there would be mutiny that would resist bloodily the government. At least under the rightist administration of Pres. Arroyo you can be sure that there will be an extreme muzzling of the press. This government will ignore all the precautions of the 1987 Constitution against authoritarian rule. (There would be an �extreme muzzling of the press� whether the next government is rightist or �leftist.� The communists do not believe in �absolute freedom of the press,� either, once they are in power. They support it only while they are out of power as it serves their revolutionary purpose to have people lose confidence in bourgeois government through daily scurrilous attacks on it in media, under the rubric of �absolute freedom of the oress.� ACA) This is the first time that I heard that many journalist were former communist. Thanks very much for that information. (Again, where have you been all these years that you know nothing about Tony Zumel or Satur Ocampo or Luis Teodoro or Argee Guevara or Conrado de Quiros or Pete Lacaba or Tato Constantino or Dodong Nemenzo or Malou Mangahas or Mon Isberto or Walden Bello or Pete Daroy or Joel Nolasco, etc? ACA) During the time of Pres. Marcos, some hotheads in the military establishment suggested that Marcos simply execute all the political opposition that were detained when Marcos placed the country under martial law as a way of instilling discipline in our country. Pres. Marcos refused to listen to these hotheads and instead released all the political opposition detained during the early days of martial law. A considerable number of officers in the AFP were in favor of using harsh measures to instill discipline in the country and this harsh methods included execution without any trial. The fact is that there are plenty of hotheads in the military establishment. The verdict of the military court of having former Senator Benigno Aquino Jr. face a firing squad together with Bernabe Buscayno, alias Commander Dante, and 1st Lt. Victor Corpuz is a reflection of the thinking of these hotheads in the military. The only time these hotheads would have their way is when there is a bloody mutiny or rebellion in our country in which the AFP faces horrendous casualties in battle. There is no question that plenty of heads will roll when this happens. At any rate I already wrote the fact that our press has been taking their lessons in democracy at heart. Two shocking events occurred in our country and this is the declaration of martial law and the ascendancy of the People's Power government. Both caused the closure of many newspapers in the country. Before the declaration of martial law, it was unthinkable for somebody in the press to suggest that the government take draconian measures to prevent abuse. The fact that you are suggesting these draconian measures shows that our press is maturing. If people in the press would just be frank and honest with themselves, perhaps these draconian measures need not be implemented at all. People could be persuaded to behave through reason and not terrorism. (I am not �suggesting these draconian measures.� I was merely responding to the question on why this country still had a communist insurgency when it had long been extinguished in other countries around us. I answered that one difference, among several differences, between this country and its neighbors is its �absolute freedom of the press� which the other countries did not enjoy. This freedom allowed the communist movement here to organize and propagandize to an extent not known in those other countries. (I think it is possible to convince Philippine media to exercise self-censorship and restraint as long as the national leader asking them to do so is credible. ACA) Ramon A. del Gallego, [email protected] November 26, 2005 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |
| Dear Tony, Your brief account of traveling across Europe on a Vespa scooter is fascinating. Now I understand better your journey across the realm of ideas and your wish to share the experience. I wish you more mileage in this one. I agree with you and Randy David's conclusion that trapos and communists don't present viable choices in our present political dilemma. I also agree with you that the Black and White movement should acquire more sophistication in their choice of alternatives. There's one other option closer to your heart and is slowly but steadily gaining ground. I'm referring to a transition revolutionary government recently renamed transition governing council. I think the change of terminology is to avoid association with similar proposals coming from the extreme left and extreme right of the political spectrum. Any hint of a connection with either is a kiss of death in terms of gaining popular support. I have already written about a transition governing council but I wish to write about it again in view of your observation that we've no real alternative. A transition governing council is by the way being advocated by the Laban ng Masa, a coalition of democratic socialist movements. Prominent among them is Akbayan, a full-fledge political party that has so far limited its participation in electoral politics through the party-list. It's current party-list representatives in Congress are Risa Hontiveros, Etta Rosales and Mayong Aguha. All three are respectably holding their own for the cause of reason in a completely unreasonable political venue. A transition governing council is to be composed of untainted and respectable personalities representing the various sectors of society, especially, the underprivileged. The elite, irresponsible as it has been in charting the course of our country, is nonetheless to be represented. This varied representation of conflicting interest is sure to make the council unstable but not necessarily unworkable. This is if it doesn't attempt to do too much I suggest that the council limits itself to administering the operation of government during the transition period and to correcting fundamental flaws in our political structures. Our failed state is a consequence of elitist democracy mirrored by our political structures. State policies formulated by our political institutions are merely an extension of narrow interests. Our political structures must be made more responsive to the needs of the majority and less vulnerable to the influence of narrow interests. Next to administering the daily operation of government during the transition period, the transition governing council must revamp, modernize and strengthen the COMELEC. This is to ensure that it can finally be an impartial and efficient administrator of elections in this country. This is a minimum condition for a real democracy. The third order of business for the transition governing council is to convene a constitutional commission. A constitutional change that must be undertaken is to convert our present unitary form of government with a bicameral congress into a federal system with a unicameral parliament. The new parliament is to have fifty-percent proportionate representation and fifty- percent sectoral representation. The purpose of these changes is to make government more accessible to people through the federal system and less vulnerable to the machination of narrow interests through greater sectoral representation. The final order of business of the transition governing council is to conduct a new election for a new government that is hoped to complete a more comprehensive reform process. A newly elected government with a true mandate and with more even representation from across the socio-economic structure of society should be able to craft policies that is truly for the common good. Should this happen, we may finally have a just society that is free from the impositions of a greedy ruling elite and that would enable us to attain the kind of life we value _ and have reason to value (The phrase in italics is borrowed from Dr.Amratya Sen, 2003 Nobel Prize awardee in Economics). Gico Dayanghirang, [email protected] Davao City, December 18, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww |