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| Forget Cha-cha By Antonio C. Abaya Written Dec. 18, 2005 For the Standard Today, December 20 issue Under normal circumstances, I would be supportive of the move to amend the constitution to allow for a shift to a parliamentary form of government. I have been for parliamentarianism since the time of President Aquino. But these are not normal times. We are in the midst of a political crisis that is not likely to go away anytime soon. And the crux of this crisis is the legitimacy of the present government in view of allegations of massive cheating in the 2004 elections. To hold another election, referendum or plebiscite under the supervision of the same Abalos Comelec, and under the scrutiny of the same Concepcion-Luz Namfrel, which, together, gave us the farce of 2004 is against all common sense. Don�t get me wrong. I stand by my columns �GMA By a Hair� (May 13, 2004) and �Who Won?� (May 19, 2004) that President Arroyo won the elections, but by a paper-thin majority of about 250,000-300,000 votes, based on my analysis of the incomplete election returns tabulated by Namfrel. I then compared these with the results of the pre-election surveys of Pulse Asia (April 26-29) and Social Weather Stations (May 1-4) and the results of SWS� exit polls (May 10). By and large, the four sets of numbers validated each other. President Arroyo won, but by a slim majority. Using more or less the same methodology, Inquirer columnist Solita Monsod came to the same conclusion last October 2005. Roberto Verzola, who also analyzed the incomplete Namfrel data, disregarding the tallies during the first six days of tabulation (when Namfrel deliberately tallied the votes from known GMA bailiwicks early on, to give the impression that she was enjoying a wide lead) focused on the tallies from Day 7 to Day 26 of Namfrel and came up with 18 scenarios on how the uncounted votes would have affected the final outcome. In 17 of these 18 scenarios, GMA won, with margins ranging from as big as 351,661 and as small as 74,894 votes. In only one of these 18 scenarios did FPJ win, by only 19,990 votes. Certainly PGMA won, but not by 1.2 million votes. That margin was manufactured in the certificates of canvass prepared in the municipal and provincial treasurers� offices before being submitted to Comelec national headquarters. There was indeed massive cheating, to pad the winning margin from 250,000-300,000 to 1.2 million votes, but she would have won even if the count were honest, though by a thin margin. It is possible that margin would have been shaved even thinner if four million voters had not been disenfranchised which, I suspect, was done deliberately by person or persons inside the Comelec who had access to the master list of voters. But there is no paper trail to expose this fraud, as there is for the election returns and the certificates of canvass. Massive cheating is massive cheating, whether or not it materially affected the final outcome. With such a blatantly partisan management of the 2004 elections, the Abalos Comelec and the Concepcion-Luz Namfrel have lost all moral right to supervise and scrutinize, respectively, another electoral exercise. Furthermore, holding another election, in 2006 (as proposed by former President Fidel Ramos) or 2007 (as is scheduled and endorsed by other trapos) or 2010 (as is scheduled and proposed by the Consultative Commission or ConCom) � without first changing the electoral rules � would guarantee that the same trapos and political dynasties who now control our presidential system would emerge controlling the new parliamentary system as well. So why bother amending the constitution at all? Under the �Total Solution� proposed by Fidel Ramos, all elected national officials are supposed to resign from their positions by February 14, to give way to parliamentary elections in May 2006 and a formal shift to the parliamentary system by end of June 2006. This was supposed to give GMA a �graceful exit� from her besieged presidency. But, as things now stand, it would pave the way for Jose de Venecia or Fidel Ramos to become prime minister in July 2006. How many voters are ecstatic over this prospect? In the proposal of ConCom, all elected national officials whose terms end in 2007 � all members of the Lower House and half of the Senate - are automatically given another three years in office without need for re-election, and automatically become members of an interim parliament. The scheduled elections in 2010 will proceed but for a full-fledged parliament, subject to general elections every five years.. Under this set-up, the incumbent president, Gloria Arroyo, becomes both head of government and head of state in 2007, than which she could not have designed a more advantageous position to run for a seat in parliament and become prime minister in 2010, assuming we adopt the Westminster model, since she is not explicitly disqualified from doing so. Which was her game plan all along, before the Hello Garci scandal shook her presidency last July. (See my article �Prime Minister Gloria� [May 17, 2005]). The ConCom proposal is thus not just �a subterfuge to keep GMA in power until 2010,� as my friend and colleague Amado Doronila wrote in the Inquirer of Dec. 19, It is a subterfuge to keep her in power beyond 2010. So, forget Cha-cha for now. What we need is a peaceful revolution to, among other things, change the rules of electoral engagement, after which, and only after, we can talk about Cha-cha again. ***** Reactions to [email protected] or ax 824-7642. Other articles in www.tapatt.org OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |
| Reactions to �Forget ChaCha� Hi Tony, I agree with your recommendation to forget cha-cha for now, and to concentrate on electoral reform first. The big question is, how do we do so when Arroyo and her cohorts are hell-bent on ramming the constitutional changes down our long-suffering throats? I almost puked when I read how Chairperson Abueva presented his report to Arroyo, particularly that part asking her to be the Prime Minister in 2007. Pllleeeeezzzzz! Michelle Alba Lim, [email protected] December 20, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww This has managed to depress me.....But what can we do? Another popular movement? But wouldn't the same elite co-opt the leadership of said movement for their own purposes? Jose Custodio, [email protected] December 20, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Indeed, we should forget Cha-cha because there has been no showing that Con-Com's major recommendation, shift to parliamentary system, is the key to solving the problems---as well as causes of the problems---that the presidential system failed to solve. Moreover, its proponents have not explained how they will forestall civil war or revolution that may erupt from the parliamentary system owing to its playing into the hands of traditional politicians, who can perpetuate themselves in power under the system. Politicians with loyal bailiwicks that are blind to their faults can get elected and re-elected as members of parliament no matter how unpopular they are to the entire nation---because they are boon to their local constituents whom they shower with infrastructure and other beneficial government projects. One of them can get elected by parliament as Prime Minister and entrench himself in office through money and machinations. As highest government official without term limits, the Prime Minister can, over the years, appoint men unabashedly beholden to him---as in the case of Mr. Garcillano?---in the military, in the COMELEC, in the Commission on Audit (COA), in the Office of the Ombudsman, and in the judiciary, including the Sandiganbayan and Supreme Court. The implications of these foregone eventualities should frighten us, unless we have forgotten martial law so soon. People who may see corrupt government executives drunk with power under the parliamentary system may want to change them but they cannot do anything, for the power to change will then rest not on the people but on the corrupt government officials themselves. With officials in the COMELEC, the military, and other key government offices thriving from the existing order, the people's protests against corruption, fraudulent elections, dynasties, private armies, and other abuses of power will not amount to anything because---as in the case of the suppressed impeachment complaint against President Arroyo?---the government's grievance machinery will cease to function and instead serve those in power, not the people. The people will then face a de facto martial law regime that is more difficult to fight than real martial law because, as undeclared martial law and disguised democracy, it will continue to enjoy the support and recognition of the international community and those who adhere to the rule of law, no matter how twisted it is to suit those who implement it. Under the present system of a fixed six-year term for the President, the people will just wait for the next national election for their chance to elect a new President. However, under the parliamentary system, there is no such opportunity to wait for because the government officials whom they want to change are the ones vested with the power to change-and definitely they will not institute the needed change, they will not voluntarily have themselves replaced. As can be observed, the longer government officials stay in office, the longer they want to hold on to power and wealth-amassing opportunities. Under the circumstances, the only alternative will be what the parliamentary system aims to avoid---coup d'etat or people-power revolution. The next one maybe bloody if those concerned continue to take Filipinos for granted and do not learn lessons from history. Marcelo L. Tecson, [email protected] San Miguel, Bulacan, December 20, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tocayo, This is to greet you for a Merry Christmas and to thank you for your writings which for me is a precious continuing political education such as no other contemporary writer gives. I pray for your good health in the coming year. May your tribe increase! Tony L. Ledesma, [email protected] December 21, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, I can't agree with you more. Both FVR's and the ConCom's ChaCha assume that Filipinos are so stupid that they can't discern the obvious sinister motives behind them. I certainly hope that the resolution of our present political crisis will end with meaningful changes in our political institutions as well as with the marginalization, if not the elimination, of all trapos in our political landscape. Gico Dayanghirang, [email protected] Davao City, December 21, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, I am with you on this one, but I think first thing first......lets continue the case against GMA on the rampant cheating last election. If she will be found "not guilty", then she would be free to run for any office, but then if she will be found "guilty", then she ahs to take time in prison as former Pres. Estrada and then therefore would not be eligible to run for any government office. This "cha-cha" thing is just a smoke to give GMA a good escape from every bad things she has done before and while in office. Gil Mateo, [email protected] December 21, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Reaction to �An Expat�s Lament� (Dec. 13, 2005) Thanks for sharing this email Tony! I feel exactly the same as this man. There really needs to be "Spring Cleaning" made in all levels of the government. Speaking of that, maybe your next article can address certain issues like spring cleaning the Philippine government, Philippines becoming a commonwealth of USA like Guam and Puerto Rico and what happens with corrupt politicians like the Marcos' especially Imelda Marcos and Filipino Leadership: Can the Filipinos really lead or are they just a bunch of followers under Americans? Louis J. Eguaras, [email protected] Valencia, California, December 22, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Sequel to �An Expat�s Lament� (Dec. 13, 2005) Hi Tony, Here is another good reason not to be in the Philippines� We work with local subcontractors here.. It supports the employment of hundreds.. Now, with the already negative image we have here.. I�ll probably have to find a way to do in-house the work we currently sub out.. There will be jobs lost. If those who are guilty of crimes are punished it would be one thing.. but we almost never hear of it.. I had mentioned to you my car was stolen at gunpoint. My wife and I were dumped on the coastal road after a terrifying 30 minute ride with a gun in my ribs.. The cops found some of our stuff a few weeks later while doing a bust in Tondo as they found a holiday greeting card with our address on it so they contacted us.. The people who were fencing some of the stolen items, the driver of the car with the robbers who stole our car were caught. (We were forced off the road at 11 pm on the way home from the airport on the Zapote Road near what is now PriceSmart ) That driver had other cases against him, according to the Fiscal. The judge threw out the case because the cops did not have �all� the criminals in custody.. I was incredulous! They caught people with items they admitted were stolen from us and had our names sewed in them (clothes), and yet the judge let them go! My wife and I personally went to Tondo under police escort to retrieve a few items.. The total value of what we lost was > $20K. We had some expensive items with us from the US, plus jewelry as we had attended a black tie New Years Eve party.. (This event happened in January 1990 btw and I have been robbed twice since. Once at Makati Med about seven years ago and about two years ago by a pair of snatchers who stole my hand bag ) The problem here is pretty simple.. Crime pays, so with the risk low of paying any penalties, do the crime as you won�t likely do the time� We also have had a case of a maid stealing from us. When caught and we brought in the village authorities, we were asked what our problem was as we can � afford � to loose this amount of money..!! The poor maid must have needed it so we should just give her money since we are so �rich�! What a mentality! This is absurd! Since I�ve been concerned about using local subcontractors for some time due to security reasons I may have no choice now but to cease using them.. Furthermore, this makes the prospects of expanding here even more dim.. So sad.. People will loose their jobs because the authorities don�t have the will power to arrest and imprison people who violate the laws here.. The risk of paying a penalty for breaking the law is so small, it pays to be a criminal. (Name and email address withheld) December 22, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Reaction to �Missing Out in Tourism� (Dec. 11, 2005) Hi Tony! First of all, I would like to thank you for including me in your e-mail group. Below is my reaction to your article 'Missing Out in Tourism'. When you suggested a 'methodical and steady marketing effort on the part of the Vietnamese, and inconsistent and erratic efforts on our part', what does 'marketing effort' include? Even if marketing effort includes much more than just the making and placing of effective ads in CNN or BBC and is a major factor in the success of a country's tourism, concentrating on it alone may not be enough for us to catch up even with a mediocre country like Indonesia. I think our low tourism figure is caused not just by poor marketing effort but also by the very poor/bad image of our country in relation to many countries. Considering that almost all countries are also exerting their best efforts to enhance their tourism, I think it will need the help of most Filipinos to greatly improve our tourism figures by addressing all (not just a part of) factors that affect a country's tourism. From a system's approach, success/failure of a country's tourism is affected by two groups of factors, namely: 1. The positive factors like marketing effort and other good tourism practice s that would tend to increase the number of tourists and 2. The negative factors like crimes committed on tourists, bad news, etc. that would tend to minimize an increase or even cause a decrease in the number of tourists. The optimal strategy is to try to do the following simultaneously: 1. Increase the number and/or size of the positive factors within the available but limited resources. It might be good to know what are the things that would encourage tourists to go to us, the good tourism practices and support services that would induce them to decide to come. 2. Minimize if not eliminate the negative factors. We need to know what is wrong with us which discourages them from coming. In connection with the above, I think it would be good if the Tourism department, Tourism industry and concerned NGOs can form groups consisting of people who will work on #1 and 2 above. Their work can also include finding ways to get the help of all OCWs and concerned Pinoys to help in the tourism effort (e.g., talented people like you Tony can help in making effective ads at low cost, sponsor a contest where the one who brings in the most number of foreigner tourists during a given period will get a financial reward, give recognition to those who can contribute very creative tourism ideas, Pinoys with cars/houses can be trained and certified to be tour guides/hosts, etc.), harnessing the tourism opportunities in the internet (e.g., email ads may be sent by Pinoys to their 'foreigner' friends) and uniting the Tourism industry by suggesting period when hotels should give certain discounts, hotel prices considering foreign competition (note that a lower price with say 70% occupancy rate might be better than a higher price at 30 % occupancy rate only) and set up a Tourism email group to enable as many Pinoys, including those who are abroad like me to discuss/brainstorm and help/give suggestions about tourism. When Sen. Gordon was secretary of Tourism, he came out with an idea about each overseas Pinoy convincing at least 1 (?) foreigner each year to come and visit the Phil. The idea looks simple and relatively easy to attain. Since there are more than 7 million of them, that would have meant an increase of at least 7 million tourists a year. I suspect that it did very little to increase the number of tourists. Thru Pinoy creative thinking, I think it can be made to work for most if not all overseas Pinoys. I think the major problem is caused by some Pinoys who look at all tourists as rich people and try to take advantage of them. Although they might be in the minority, stories about a few tourists being mugged, fooled, etc. (thru word of mouth or news media) would discourage most foreigners, without a Pinoy host/friend, from coming to the Phil. This problem also discourages most OCWs and former Pinoys to recommend to their foreigner friends/officemates from coming here being afraid that something bad might happen to them. The Abu Sayaf and bad news aggravate the problem. When I learned that my Saudi friend was going to Singapore for his annual holiday, I suggested to him to come to Manila. He declined because he had a bad experience when he went there. A Pinoy offered to buy his $ at a rate better than that of a bank. After counting the $, the Pinoy put it in his pocket then gave him the pesos. It was less than the agreed rate so my friend asked for the return of his $. He at first tried to return less $ than what my friend gave. He finally returned all $ only after my friend showed that he will fight for it. I think my friend was still lucky. He could have had a traumatic experience if the guy had companions or had a gun or knife. Although it would be ideal if we can come up with original brilliant ideas in accomplishing the above, it would be good if we try to start by looking and possibly adopting and improving on good practices of countries which are doing better than us in tourism: Thailand - A friend who visited it said that after one passes Immigration at the airport, one will see Travel Agencies who will help a tourist book a hotel and a car with a guide and driver for a whole day at relatively cheap price. The guide gives one a lot of advices such as what to buy and what price to haggle, etc. My friend said that it is even cheaper if one gets the car in a hotel because the driver is also the guide. Australia - Airports and big bus stations have posters in one area which advertises cheap hotels in the area. Thus a tourist who has no advance reservation can easily find a lodging place. In Melbourne, a big hotel in the city proper advertised in the yellow pages a cheap room (about 2 meters by 3 meters only with common toilet and bath) at A$ 40 a day only. In the TV series 'The Practice' which I saw only last week, a boy was caught snatching bags. At first, he was not given a jail sentence. But after it was clarified that the victims were tourists, he was charged with a crime that has a maximum penalty o f 20 years because tourism in the state of Massachusetts is a multi-billion $ business. Thus, a crime against a tourist may be considered as a form of economic sabotage. It would be good if the Phil. can have similar laws. It would be good if we can have a hotline for tourist complaints The tourism problem of the Philippines is quite big. But if many of us would help/give suggestions, I think we can be one of the top tourism destinations in Asia. Your comments, suggestions and criticism on the above would be highly appreciated. Narciso Silverio, [email protected] December 22, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Reaction to �My Aubervilliers� (Nov. 20, 2005) We are thrilled to know that, as a young man, you were able to tour Europe, especially France, on your Vespa - every now and then running on prayers alone. (I might be assuming too much on this, because as you yourself hinted, you were in your youth a member of Kabataang Makabayan, like Joma, hence, as you insist a "communist". But since "communists" are supposed to be not fond of religious beliefs, then your Vespa might not be running on prayers alone. Of course, in those days, they said that in Europe, everybody should be communist until 18 years of age. But we all know that "communism" is an ideal state; it has never been tested nor achieved. Thus, all the "communist" countries of Eastern Europe then and of Asia have NEVER accepted or called themselves officially "Communist" states. Officially, and at the UN fora, they called themselves or officially referred to, for instance, as "Socialist" states, like: Union of Soviet Socialist Republics"; or as "People's Republic", like: "People's Republic of China", or "Democratic People's republic of Korea".) But I digress. We very much like your experience. Nene Zacarias, of whom Ambassador Pex Castro had told us of so many good deeds, assisted you and helped you reunite with your very much worried sister. Like you, I came to know Europe in my younger days. Geneva was my first assignment way back in 1972, immediately before Martial Law. With a Volks, I had criss-crossed all of Western Europe, also Hungary, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Yugoslavia. But with my family - a wife and two kids. We had slept in our Beetle in our forays to the beaches of South of France, from Nice to St. Tropez; left it at a parking space in the cliffs of Monaco; or in the parking lots underneath Geneva Lake (some years later as I had been exiled to Europe three times); and traveled the highways - unlit, without railings or traffic signs - above the clouds of Yugoslavia, on our way to Dubrovnik. We immensely enjoyed Europe in a Beetle, as you did too on a Vespa! CONGRATULATIONS again on you articles for the Standard Today. It is nice to know that you no longer support the CHA-CHA for now. And don't do it please in the future. More power to you! AND MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL OF YOU! Nelson D. Lavina, [email protected] December 23, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww (The following article first appeared in BusinessWorld and was emailed to us by the author) Shadow Power Plays at the Department of Energy By Dean de la Paz Presidential EO 474 is the kind of power play that happens when one places a puny pebble upon a pedestal. Someone is bound to flick it off the way they do nasal buggers. Worse, when the record attests to embarrassing privatization failures, impotence against oil price increases, flawed demand projections and a US$ 562 million fiasco teeter-tottering on a rebid of Masinloc, someone may indeed be compelled to stage a bureaucratic splice. Last Nov. 30, 2005, while we commemorated Bonifacio Day, in a fashion familiar to Gloria Arroyo�s brand of governance, Presidential Executive Order 474 was released. EO 474 called for the creation of a super governing body called the Philippine Strategic Oil, Gas, Energy Resources and Power Infrastructure Office (PSOGERPIO). The objectives of the PSOGERPIO are unclear as are the parameters that encompass it. As it stands, the creation of an extraneous super body seems to directly encroach as well as usurp areas of authority and responsibility which by statute belong to the Department of Energy. While admittedly the record of the Energy Department falls miserably below even our most forgiving expectations, thus verging on gross dereliction, the creation of what might be a redundant office is far from the remedy the public seeks. Between a victimized public afflicted with energy officials long on hubris and short on competence, there is certainly no love lost. Just last week a publicity stunt showing the highest energy officials spinning the energy crisis on its tail and huckstering for low wattage light bulbs seemed like a ludicrous, if not totally lame, excuse for energy governance. That the stunt was punctuated by an admonition that conservation was the most effective response to energy price increases added insult to injury. The public has been scrimping since the PPAs were imposed on their energy bills. But to ask them to conserve when conservation only minimally affects the PPA makes the stunt an even more cruel affliction verging on pachydermal insensitivity. It is insulting to the consumer�s intelligence. Not only were electricity consumers already curbing on usage but they were also forced to pay for electricity they did not use. This they know. And this they do not like. And no amount of spin will appease them. Inane gimmickry does little to endear incompetents to the public and perhaps the underlying clamor for better governance has made its way to EO 474. To analyze its imperative let us review the discomforting failures of the Energy Department � those that seem to have spawned a desperate move to relieve it of its charge - and against those, analyze the PSOGERPIO. On the matter of planning, last September 2005, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) released a scathing indictment on the incompetence of the Energy Department in coordinating and pursuing electricity reforms within and among related agencies. Lack of planning was one of the ADB�s sorest points in its commentary. In addition, according to a paper written by a London School of Economics economist, one-dimensional planning wormed in from the NEDA to the DOE leading to aberrant demand projections, abusive supply contracts and consequently, predatory tariffs. On the matter of policy, despite obvious shortcomings in understanding economic impacts, the Energy Department sponsored moves to include among those inflicted with the E-VAT, oil and energy inputs. On the matter of implementation, sans Masinloc, the DOE has privatized only 0.20% of installed capacities since EPIRA was passed five years ago. A far cry from the projected 70% requisite prior to open access. Unfortunately, the wailing seems to be coming from continuously victimized consumers. Such incompetence has stalled the implementation of the spot market and open access. Likewise, the privatization program has been bungled with the payment for the Masinloc sale still in question as a rebid looms more than a year after the original auction. Traced to gross gullibility and imprudence, reactionary hubris compensated and has whitewashed over the imperfections. As the skull thickens to protect itself from the external shocks of criticism, the space for the oxygen-starved medulla oblongata constricts and aggravates intellectual lightheadedness. Thus, despite wake-up calls, lessons remain un-learned and our energy authorities still seem bent on curing the incurable. But is the Palace�s PSOGERPIO the proper palliative for encephalitic emptiness? �Under the EO (474), PSOGERPIO, to be headed by a Presidential Assistant, could mandate the DOE and PNOC and all its subsidiary companies �to prepare, integrate, coordinate, supervise and control all plans, programs, projects and activities of the government related to exploration, development, production, utilization, distribution and conservation of energy�. The EO also has provisions allowing it to infringe on the functions of other key government agencies�. (Philippine Star, 12/19/05) All these belong to the DOE mandate. If Arroyo has ceased to trust her energy secretary then she should replace him. If he is incompetent then he should be fired. If he has lost her confidence, then he should leave. If he has been undermined then he should resign. Here is where the solution lies. In any case, Arroyo should stop this power play and instead inject into the DOE large doses of testosterone and transplant brain cells if she feels that is what is necessary. What is unnecessary is EO 474�s unkindest cut, the virtual bureaucratic circumcision of the DOE as it creates an extraneous shadow agency. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |