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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| GMA by a Hair By Antonio C. Abaya May 13, 2004 As of this writing (10am, May 13), the race for the presidency, as tabulated by the Namfrel Quick Count, is deadlocked. With 1.764 million votes tabulated, President Arroyo and her closest rival, FPJ, are each getting 37.8% of the votes. The also-rans are Lacson with 11.9, Villanueva with 6.8, and Roco with 5.8. I have been monitoring the unofficial counts since 7pm May 10, always converting the votes tabulated into percentages, as this is the only way to keep tab of the results without drowning in a sea of numbers. In the unofficial Halalan 2004 quick count, conducted by ABS-CBN and the Philippine Star, GMA was leading FPJ by 1.5 points, with 1.614 million votes tabulated. It has since been discontinued, on May 11, to give way to the semi-official Namfrel count. In the unofficial Eleksyon 2004 quick count, conducted by GMA-7 and the Philippine Daily Inquirer, GMA was leading FPJ by 0.8 points, with 1.616 million votes tabulated. It has also been discontinued, on May 12, in favor of the Namfrel count. Comparing the percentages in the unofficial Halalan 2004 and Eleksyon 2004 counts with the pre-election survey percentages of SWS and Pulse Asia, one can detect two developments (1) the undecided (12% in SWS and 9% in Pulse Asia) voted mostly for FPJ, Lacson and Villanueva, not for GMA; and (2) Villanueva was able to draw some votes from GMA, which, combined with his share of the undecided, made up the �last-minute surge� that he and his followers were praying for. FPJ was leading in the early stages of the Namfrel count but as of 10 am of May 13, he is now in a dead heat with GMA. And this is consistent with the results of the discontinued Halalan 2004 and Eleksyon 2004 quick counts, which showed a shrinking GMA lead (1.5 to 0.8) with slightly smaller vote counts. By 9 pm, however, GMA is leading by 3 points, with 3.179 million votes tabulated. This can be more clearly shown in the following table: Count Votes tab GMA FPJ Lacson Roco Bro Eddie Und/no ans Halalan 2004 1.614m 36.4 34.9 14.3 6.8 7.6 Eleksyon 2004 1.616m 34.2 33.4 15.3 8.9 7.9 Namfrel 1.764m 37.8 37.8 11.9 5.7 6.4 Namfrel 3.179m 40.1 37.1 11.7 5.1 6.1 SWS Exit Poll 41 32 9 5 5 No answer: 8 SWS Poll (May 1-4) 37 30 11 6 4 Undecided 12 Pulse Asia (Apr 26-29) 37 31 11 7 5 Undecided 9 The percentages in the semi-official Namfrel count will, of course, change in the coming hours and days as more votes come in from candidates� bailiwicks, raising the percentages of some and lowering those of others. But there will not be any substantial changes to propel Lacson or Roco or Villanueva to the top rungs. For the sake of national peace, those three should now gracefully concede their defeat. And the camp of President Arroyo should not uncork their champagne bottles prematurely. The SWS Exit Poll, which gives GMA a 9-point lead over FPJ, also showed that 8% of respondents gave �no answer� when asked whom they voted for. Did they give �no answer� because they did not vote for any presidential candidate, or because they did not want to reveal their vote to an uninvited total stranger knocking at their door? I am inclined to believe it is the latter. And if the undecided in the pre-election surveys of SWS (12%) and Pulse Asia (9%) voted mostly for FPJ, Lacson and Villanueva as is suggested in the Halalan 2004 and Eleksyon 2004, it is safe to assume that the No Answer (8%) in the SWS Exit Poll also did the same. So the current 9% lead of GMA in the SWS Exit Poll may be misleading. It will almost certainly shrink to less than that when the last vote is tabulated by Namfrel. GMA may win, but by a smaller percentage. A beneficial side-effect of this election is or should be the education of the doubting Tomasos and Tomasas who, ignorant of how a scientific survey works, cannot understand how the choices of 1,200 or 1,800 respondents can reflect the choices of 43.5 million voters. The above table shows how closely the empirical data has so far matched the pre-election survey results of SWS and Pulse Asia, taking into consideration the Undecideds and the No Answers. For trying to make sense of the numbers, I have been accused by some ignoramuses of receiving money to project a GMA win. Never underestimate the power of ignorance. ***** The bulk of this article appears in the May 22, 2004 issue of Philippnes Free Press magazine. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �GMA By a Hair� A 9-point lead is not by a hair. It turned out to be a virtual two-way race. A runoff should be instituted in these political exercises instead of worrying about the ensoulment of the mbryo and about national heritages and invocations to the Almighty, which has nothing to do with an atheist like me. Ross Tipon, [email protected] May 14, 2004 MY REPLY. Reread the article. I wrote that GMA did NOT win by nine points, but by a much smaller margin. My forecast is being borne out by the Namfrel count, where her lead has been whittled down from 13.6% to only 3.73, and still dropping. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww See attached, ty Mahar Mangahas, [email protected] May 14, 2004 At 09:03 AM 5/14/04 +0800, you wrote: Hi Mahar, Guys, What's your take on this article by Tony Abaya (the columnist, not the pollster/pr guy) Romy MY REPLY. Mahar sent us two SWS press statements signed by him, which are appended at the bottom of this Reaction page. Viewers can draw their own conclusions. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Mr. Abaya, As usual, you call it like it is. I for one, cannot believe how ignorant (or just plain stupid) some people are. last night, watching Dong Puno live, I caught Mike Romero accusing Dr. Mangahas of manipulating the exit polls. His accusation was that there was no question of 'undecided" in the 1998 elections and that its inclusion in the recent elctions as well as the difference between FPJ and GMA can be explained away by the "undecided". My, my, how simplistic. If there's any consolation, that line of reasoning/thinking best illustrates the true intellectual capabilities of our politicians (Mike Romero is indeed a congressman). Ignorance is not an excuse. Then again, neither is stupidity. Another sad thing was watching the supporters of Bro. Eddie calling the surveys and the people implementing them, "immoral". They really should get down from their ivory towers and see what the real world is all about. Just because the surveys/polls don't favor their candidate, they start coming out of the woodwork, accusing everyone of this and that. So much for the "Christian" vote. How brotherly/neighborly of them. Random sampling, in my estimation, is a concept/term that eludes feeble minds. We are all wasting our collective breaths trying to explain it. Raul Tan, [email protected] May 14, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Thank you for the article, I do appreciate the convenience of receiving it without going through the web to read your article. It is ironic that the tomasos and tomasas are giving you a grief and accuses you of being a paid hack of gma which is indeed childish and irresponsible. That, I believe is the problem with highly partisan attitude and campaigning for one's chosen bets that reduces the electoral exercise into immature verbal exchange that achieves nothing for the good of the people. People are blinded by their zealousness to root for their candidates and their ability to discern the real issue are clouded by their emotional attitude brought about by the highly partisan atmosphere of the fiesta we call election. Ren Arrieta, [email protected] May 14, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww WELL SAID, TONY! Richard Powell, [email protected] May 14, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, There is a string of disturbing news about this election. Like you and many concerned expats, I hate to see the country fall under a leadership of an incapable person. There so much risks to take and one has to consider what had happened in the past and lies ahead. The Coscoluellas of Negros Occidental has declared GMA as the winner two days ago in an email sent to me. That was a relief. However, going over the internel news of Philippine Star, Manila Bulletin, Philippine Inquirer, the last two not so updated, tell me that FPJ is being cheated and should be leading. This is disturbing. I am totally perplexed! Best to you! Ganny Cornelio Cornelio, [email protected] May 14, 2004 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO The SWS 2004 Day of Election Survey: An Estimated 35.6 Million Voted; 36.5 Million Went, But 2.5% Could Not Find Their Names Mahar Mangahas Social Weather Stations The SWS Day of Election Survey or �Exit Poll� obtained data (as of 1p.m. on May 11, 2004) from a national sample of 5,675 registered voters, of whom 4,627 voted and 1,048 did not. The sample�s raw or unweighted voting turnout rate is 1048 divided by 5675 or 81.5%. 81.8% weighted turnout rate However, a better estimate of the national turnout rate, using as weights the numbers of registered voters in each of the 79 provinces and 19 cities/towns where the sample was drawn, comes to 81.8%. Applying this 81.8% to the official national total of 43.536 million registered voters implies that an estimated 35.6 million voted in the May 10 election. 2.5% could not find their names Of the 1,048 in the exit poll sample who did not vote, 116 explained that they could not find their names in the voters list. Including them makes a total of 4,743 who in fact went to the polling places, although those who voted were only 4,627. The raw proportion of missing names is 116 divided by 4743 or 2.4%, but with proper weighting the national average is 2.5% of those who went to polling places. In aggregate terms, SWS estimates that 36.5 million visited the polling places, of whom 2.5% or about 900,000 could not find their names, leaving 35.6 million able to vote. Other reasons for not voting Of the others in the sample who did not vote, 123 had to work, 113 were busy with personal matters, 51 called it inconvenient, 45 were not interested, 41 were sick, 18 were prevented by partisans, 15 feared for their safety, 4 disliked the candidates, 3 did not know the polling place, 1 said the voting procedure is not orderly, and 581 gave other reasons still to be classified Day of Election Survey background The 5,675 respondents in the usable sample represents a 57% completion rate out of 10,003 homes sampled and accounted for by the exit poll field staff. There were 2,987 identified from the home visit but not yet home by the 6 p.m. deadline, and 1,341 refusals. Another 617 cases were still unaccounted for by 1 p.m. of May 11, the deadline for assembling materials for the scheduled ABS-CBN broadcast of national results of the exit poll. Any interviews completed from these 617 cases will be used to update the exit poll. The SWS webpage at http://www.sws.org.ph may be consulted for more information, including SWS official releases to media and a list of SWS public reports. SWS�s email addresses are [email protected] and [email protected]. Office address: 52 Malingap Street, Sikatuna Village, Quezon City 1101, Metro Manila, Philippines. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww The SWS 2004 Day of Election Survey: HOW TO TEST THE EXIT POLL: EXCLUDE BLANK ANSWERS Mahar Mangahas Social Weather Stations The SWS Day of Election Survey or �Exit Poll� figures broadcast over ABS-CBN on May 11, 2004 accounted for all types of survey responses, including invalid ones. Testing for Metro Manila In particular, the morning report, based on findings for Metro Manila, for the presidency, was: Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo 31%, Fernando Poe Jr. 23%, Panfilo Lacson 20%, Eduardo Villanueva 10, Raul Roco 8%, and No Answer 7% (total 99% due to rounding error). The �No Answer� category covers blanks and any other invalid answer on the survey ballot which respondents filled out in writing, folded, and placed in a box brought by the survey interviewer. Such blanks are only discovered later when the survey ballots are opened. In actual elections, blanks and other invalid answers do occur and are not counted. Doing the same with the SWS exit poll, the voting base is only the 93% who gave a valid answer, and the vote percentages would be adjusted to: Metro Manila: GMA 34%, FPJ 25%, Lacson 21%, Villanueva 11%, Roco 9 (error margin 5%). This is the score that may properly be compared with the full counts of Comelec and Namfrel to test the accuracy of the SWS Exit Poll in Metro Manila, which is likely to be the first place where such counts will be completed. Can blanks be refusals to answer? In an election survey, it is always possible that a respondent leaves a position blank as a way of refusing to answer. However, there is no way of knowing how many blanks are refusals to answer, just as there is no way of knowing how many names given were really the respondents� choices. For it is also possible for a respondent, wittingly or not, to write a name different from the candidate actually voted for. Survey researchers have no choice but to accept the answers given, including spaces left blank, as the most truthful that the respondents can give. The reliability of any opinion poll depends on both the integrity of the researchers and the candidness of the people sampled. Opinion research must be ever appreciative of the public�s cooperation with surveys, without which there would be no data to study. An election, with its mechanism for full and open counting of public sentiment, provides the clearest test for the validity of polling of a sample of the public. The result of the test will be seen by comparing, for the entire country as well as region by region, the percentages in the official count of the votes to the Exit Poll percentages excluding the blank responses. Testing for the Philippines The first broadcast of national Exit Poll results, in the afternoon of May 11, 2004, was: Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo 41%, Fernando Poe Jr. 32%, Panfilo Lacson 9%, Raul Roco 5%, Eduardo Villanueva 5%, and No Answer 8%. With the No Answers excluded, the percentages become: Philippines: GMA 44%, FPJ 35%, Lacson 10%, Roco 6%, Villanueva 5% (error margin 2%). This is the score that may properly be compared with the full counts of Comelec and Namfrel to test the accuracy of the first broadcast-report of the SWS Exit Poll for the country as a whole. Testing for other regions With the No Answers excluded, the percentages for other regions are (as of May 11, 2004; totals may differ from 100% due to rounding error): CAR: GMA 51%, FPJ 24%, Lacson 13, Villanueva 8%, Roco 3% (error margin 10%). I. Ilocos: FPJ 49%, GMA 35%, Lacson 10%, Villanueva 4%, Roco 2% (error margin 6�%). II. Cagayan: FPJ 44%, GMA 35%, Lacson 13%, Villanueva 6%, Roco 1% (error margin 6�%). III. Central Luzon: FPJ 47%, GMA 35%, Lacson 8%, Villanueva 7%, Roco 3% (error margin 5%). IV. Southern Tagalog: FPJ 48%, GMA 26%, Lacson 16%, Villanueva 7%, Roco 4% (error margin 4�%). V. Bicol: Roco 37%, GMA 28%, FPJ 27%, Villanueva 4%, Lacson 4% (error margin 6%). VI. Western Visayas: GMA 66%, FPJ 21%, Villanueva 5%, Lacson 4%, Roco 4%, (error margin 5%). VII. Central Visayas: GMA 78%, FPJ 13%, Lacson 4%, Roco 4%, Villanueva 1% (error margin 5%). VIII. Eastern Visayas: GMA 51%, FPJ 40%, Lacson 5%, Roco 2%, Villanueva 2% (error margin 6�%). IX. Western Mindanao : GMA 48%, FPJ 41%, Villanueva 6%, Lacson 5%, Roco 1%, (error margin 8%). X. Northern Mindanao: GMA 54%, FPJ 34%, Lacson 6%, Villanueva 3%, Roco 3% (error margin 8�%). XI. Southern Mindanao: GMA 50%, FPJ 40%, Lacson 5%, Villanueva 4%, Roco 2% (error margin 7%). XII. Central Mindanao: GMA 48%, FPJ 38%, Lacson 9%, Villanueva 3%, Roco 2% (error margin 8%). ARMM: FPJ 50%, GMA 44%, Roco 3%, Lacson 2%, Villanueva 0.5% (error margin 7�%). Caraga: GMA 74%, FPJ 17%, Villanueva 6%, Lacson 2%, Roco 0.6% (error margin 8%). Day of Election Survey background The first broadcast of the SWS Exit Poll, on May 11, 2004, was based on data available for processing, as of 1 p.m. that day, from a national sample of 5,675 registered voters, of whom 4,627 had voted and 1,048 had not. The interviews were conducted on May 10 in people�s homes, after they had already come home from voting. In addition, there were 1,341 refusals and 2,987 who were sampled (based on a visit to their homes) but who were not yet home by 6 p.m., the interviewing deadline. Another 617 cases not yet accounted for as of 1 p.m. May 11 may provide additional completed interviews, which will be used to update the Exit Poll. The SWS webpage at http://www.sws.org.ph may be consulted for more information, including SWS official releases to media and a list of SWS public reports. SWS�s email addresses are [email protected] and [email protected]. Office address: 52 Malingap Street, Sikatuna Village, Quezon City 1101, Metro Manila, Philippines. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |