Principles of Macroeconomics

August Market Loss

Summary:

The top three market indexes in the U.S., measurements that track the stocks of a certain populations of companies, have finished the month with losses not seen in years. Dow Jones has loss 0.7%, the S&P 500 is down by 0.8%, and NASDAQ, by 1.1% (Vaishampayan & Whittall, par. 1). The plunge is being largely attributed to the change in economic growth powerhouses in China, where “smokestack industries, huge exports, and massive infrastructure spending (Areddy, par. 3),” which are now responsible for a crippling debt. To counteract this, the Chinese government intends to replace the old foundations with “services, consumer spending, and private entrepreneurship (Areddy par. 4),” but because these aren’t as well-formed, growth has been sluggish. In an attempt to simulate the economy, China has devalued the yuan last June, borrowed more money to buy shares, and in a seemingly impetuous move, started pumping money lent by state banks into infrastructure projects, which has caused volatility in the stock market. China does not appear to have a plan to rejuvenate their economy, instead, warning their citizens to get used to the ‘new normal’ of economic growth (Areddy, par. 1).”

For Investors in the U.S. and around the world, they’re shying away from companies tied to over sea markets, alternatively investing in companies that are “linked to the U.S. economic recovery instead of those with global growth (Vaishampayan & Whittall, par. 9).” The U.S. government continues to monitor the employment and inflation data as they decide to make any changes in monetary policy, possibly halting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase that was planned. The data on employment, the predicted job growth by economists to be 220,000 new jobs in August, will be released to the public on Friday.

Let’s try go get a discussion going: post any questions, predictions, conclusions, or observations you have about the articles. Try to draw connections from these articles to what we’ve learned so far.

Q: What are some economic growth strategies you recognize that the Chinese government are utilizing that we’ve learned in the textbook?

A: Private entrepreneurship was listed as one of the new strategies for economic growth. As we’ve learned in our chapter 2 of our textbook, human ingenuity and entrepreneurship increases economic growth as depicted on production possibilities curves. Also, private ownership seems to be in play here, and that facilitates cooperation between individuals to exchange goods and services.

Q: Can you foresee any secondary effects from the change in foundations?

A: With the shift in spending from manufacturing and exporting, the world may experience a decrease in exports from China, and the exports will increase in price. Countries relying on China may look elsewhere for exports.

WSJ: James Areddy

WSJ: Saumya Vaishampayan and Christopher Whittall

The Phillips Curve

The Phillips curve measures the relationship between the rate of inflation and unemployment. When unemployment rate is low, inflation is high, and when the unemployment rate is high, inflation is low. When there is an anticipated change to the inflation rate, there is no change in the unemployment rate. If there is an unanticipated change to the inflation, any change in unemployment and output lasts only during the short run and resets back to their natural rates in the long run. However, the general price level is either higher or lower. If people underestimate the inflation rate, unemployment will fall below its natural rate because costs are lower, so firms can hire more workers. If people overestimate, the unemployment rate will rise beyond its natural rate as firms have to pay a higher cost which will cause them to lay off or be unable to hire workers.

On the curve, a change in the unemployment-inflation rate ratio in the short run is demonstrated by a upwards or downwards movement of the point, depending if the inflation rate has increased or decreased, which of course can be caused by various reasons, such as a reduction in money supply. In the long run, the curve itself will shift left or right contingent on the shift of the aggregate supply. If the aggregate supply shifts to the left because of the rising costs for firms, then the Phillips curve shifts right to reflect the higher general levels of the inflation rate and unemployment. The opposite is also true. Invariably, all changes to unemployment are only temporary.

Effects of the Income Growth in the Last 200 Years

I wish the textbook would have shown this section earlier! It really made me open my eyes on how important economics is. I believe it’s difficult to interest laypeople in economics with bandying about supply and demand, inflation rates, and price indices. Because of economics, especially because of the concepts of division of labor and supply chains, we are able to live healthier, longer lives. We’re able to have more things, and we’re able to have more time for leisure, to innovate and research, to save up for emergencies, and to invest in our health and personal care. As one economist in our textbook said, economics really is the greatest invention of all time that humankind inadvertently invented.