AL East

Previewing the AL East
Posted March 19, 2005

Not much can be said about the Yankees outfield, which is old like the rest of the team, but as solid as ever. Gary Sheffield, Bernie Williams, and Hideki Matsui form an imposing trio that will most likely continue to put up solid offensive numbers. However, both Williams and Sheffield are 36-years-old, and their offensive peaks have passed. Matsui is just 30, but considering he's only going into his third major league season, he's not that young, either. It's hard to argue with the results that these players will produce, barring potential injuries to the two elderly ones, which is a real possibility.

Their infield is perhaps slightly overrated. Alex Rodriguez will continue to man third base, but his offensive numbers have in some ways declined over the past few seasons, and his first effort as a Yankee was not quite up to his standards. He is no longer hitting in Texas for half his games, so I expect his days of 50 home runs to be over. All the same, he's still one of the better hitters in the game, which is more than can be said for the remainder of the infield. Derek Jeter returns at short, naturally, and will probably spend his entire career in the Bronx. I'm not sure he or New York would have it any other way, but the fact is his defense is only average and he's failed to hit .300 in two of the past three seasons. He isn't quite the hitting machine he started out being. Jeter's most impressive talent is stealing bases, and no matter how much Yankee fans adore him for his work ethic, he's still a fairly replaceable player at this point. Newcomer Tony Womack will take over the reins at second, and this signing was a big mistake. At 35, he can still run, but unfortunately he can also do all the other things he's done his entire career, namely hit .275 with no extra base power while drawing a very small number of walks. His 2004 campaign with the Cardinals represented a career year, and it's a safe bet that it won't be repeated in 2005. First base is an interesting situation. While Jason Giambi remains a Yankee, and has been welcomed back thus far during Spring Training, it doesn't say much for the confidence in him that Cardinal and Devil Ray cast-off Tino Martinez has been resigned. I can't imagine that would be a platoon situation, since both are left-handed hitters. Who gets the at-bats is something that will be determined during the season. Jorge Posada is among the top three offensive catchers in the game currently.

With Randy Johnson heading the starting rotation this year, the Yanks' post-season presence just got a lot more intimidating. It's never a question of if they'll get that far; it's how they'll fare when they get there. With the Big Unit in pinstripes, I don't think they'll be blowing any three game series leads. Following the 41-year-old Johnson is Mike Mussina (36), Kevin Brown (40), Carl Pavano (29), and Jaret Wright (29). The rotation is strong nearly all the way through. While the ladder two aren't especially overpowering, I think they can manage to handle the pressure of being bottom of the rotation guys. Granted, I'm not sure the Yankees expect Pavano and Wright to pitch in the four and five spots considering their salaries, but if Brown has anything at all left in him, his numbers will probably be better than theirs. If he doesn't have anything left in him (and he might not), he'll still be better than Wright, who before last season hadn't been highly regarded since 1997.

As long as Mariano Rivera is healthy, New York won't have any problem closing out games. The rest of the bullpen isn't particularly impressive, but they typically manage to get the job done. Mike Stanton is the lone southpaw in the bullpen currently (Alex Graman doesn't count because his '04 ERA looked like the year he was born), while "Flash" Tom Gordon will help him in the set-up role. Both of these players are old and nearing the end of their careers, but had good seasons and are still dependable. Felix Rodriguez will give them some depth, along with Paul Quantrill. Scott Proctor, Bret Prinz, and Tanyon Sturtze will also return in all likelihood, although this isn't necessarily good news for Yankee fans.

After a strange off-season that involved only one good transaction, the Yankees are still the team to beat in 2005. If their incredibly old core of players doesn't suffer a collective stroke, I really don't see how they won't finish first in their division and then go on to win the World Series. They just have too much money, and too many proven veterans that they bought with it. The Yankees are much of the reason I have a difficult time caring what happens with the teams in the American League.

Hard to believe these two guys will be heated division rivals in '05 after this
moment of intimacy during the World Series celebration of 2001.

Manny Ramirez returns for another year of hardcore mashing in left, where he will continue to perform woefully on the defensive side of the ball. This does not offset the fact that he is the second best right-handed hitter in the game. Grungy Johnny Damon, fresh off a career year offensively in '04 continues to patrol center, and a healthy Trot Nixon can be found twirling his handlebar mustache in right. Although perhaps not a very impressive defensive outfield, they are quite sufficient at the plate. Damon cannot be expected to finish with 20 homers and 94 runs batted in again, but he is a pretty solid lead-off hitter nonetheless. Manny continues to put up fantastic slugging numbers that would warrant a middle of the order slot in any lineup, and Nixon will contribute nicely if he stays off the DL.

Veteran Bill Mueller will get plenty of at-bats at third, but Moneyball prospect Kevin Youkilis handled himself quite well at the plate in 2004 and should be expected to find himself in the lineup a fair amount of times as well. Back-stabbing Edgar Renteria now claims the position Nomar vacated last season, and as much as I hate to say it, he will be a steadying presence to the infield, and to the team in general. Edgar is a professional player on both sides of the ball, and plays well in the clutch. Goofy-looking Mark Bellhorn will be at second, and the charismatic Kevin Millar will be at first. Any mention of the Red Sox offense would not be complete without David Ortiz, a gargantuan sized DH (the only position he's suited for) who can really hit. Backstop Jason Varitek is one of the most well respected players in the game, and Boston was right to re-sign him. He is a capable hitter and works well with the pitchers.

This year's starting rotation has the potential to be quite good or quite bad. Curt Schilling is pretty much already guaranteed not to be ready by Opening Day, but if he can make his first start at some early point in the season and remain healthy the rest of the way through, at least the number one spot is taken care of. After him, things get a little sketchy. David Wells is hardly a number two at this stage in his career. He's grossly overweight, and he doesn't fool any hitter; the fact that he has pinpoint control doesn't even things out, either. Matt Clement is an inconsistent pitcher who needs to come up big this year and prove he can be as good as his stuff is. Wade Miller, if he can get himself healthy at some point, is the best candidate for the number two spot, and if he's pitching like he's capable of doing, he is more than sufficient at the top of any rotation. It is not expected he will be back too much earlier than mid-season, however, if even then. In the long run that may prove to be a great acquisition, though. Bronson Arroyo and Tim Wakefield will round out the rotation; ideally one would be used for long relief, but when the season kicks off it's likely both be needed as starters.

Keith Foulke and his devastating change up returns for another year of closing duties, and while he isn't among the absolute hardest pitchers to hit, he gets the job done. One thing I will say for him is he does an outstanding job of keeping runners off base, and in the end that's what a closer is paid to do. Veteran southpaw Alan Embree is old but solid, and former Diamondbacks Matt Mantei and Byung-Hyun Kim could be either bargains or disasters. Hard-throwing Mike Timlin has quietly amassed one respectable season after another over his entire career.

This kind of finish in the AL East could go on for years upon years if the payrolls don't change. With the financial monopoly Boston and New York have on the rest of baseball, it's difficult for these two teams not to put a winner on the field every season. While I don't think the World Champions are going to do any repeating, it's pretty tough to argue that they aren't going to be quite successful once again.

"Boomer" is such a slob he rarely takes the
time to worry about the top buttons.

Adding the aging Sammy Sosa to the outfield may not be as dramatic of an improvement as some seem to think, but there's every reason to believe it will push Baltimore a few games closer to the .500 mark, which they should be able to hover around much of the season, and perhaps even finish above it. Sosa will take over right and should have no problem managing 30 home runs in Camden Yards, while Luis Matos will probably be in center and Larry Bigbie will be in left. Matos and Bigbie are young and should have improved 2005 seasons. Much is expected from them in terms of the future.

At some point Melvin Mora developed into an amazing hitter. I don't see it, but nonetheless, with a season like he had in 2004, he has to be considered a plus at third base. Miguel Tejada returns at short (150 RBI last season), and Brian Roberts will have second base all to himself with the trade of Jerry Hairston to land Sosa, although by last year this was basically already the case. Roberts's emergence as the every day second baseman reinforces how very little the Orioles actually lost to obtain Sammy. Roberts is a patient hitter with good gap power who can also be counted on for 20-30 steals. Hairston's absence will likely go unnoticed. Rafael Palmeiro has had a great career, one that will end in Cooperstown, and he isn't quite done being a solid hitter just yet. He's still good for 20 homers and 80 runs batted in. Jay Gibbons is a relatively young player with a lot of upside, and the franchise hopes he can be a cornerstone for years to come despite an injury plagued and somewhat frustrating 2004, in which he took a step back from his 100 RBI campaign in 2003. Catcher Javy Lopez has found new life as an Oriole, posting offensive numbers the past two seasons that are much improved over his performance near the end of his tenure with Atlanta.

There's no doubt this team is built to hit rather than pitch, and the ballpark they will play half their games in will only help to enhance that image. All the same, there are a few things to like about Baltimore's starting rotation. Crafty 29-year-old Rodrigo Lopez has had two good seasons out of his last three, and he looked on top of things last year, winning 14 games with a 3.59 ERA. Hefty Sidney Ponson is a horse (literally), but his 200 innings rarely translate into big seasons. After seven full seasons in the majors, he has won more than 12 games just once, and his career ERA of 4.67 shows he is hittable. Despite his experience, Ponson is just 28, and could still turn the corner. At any rate, he's dependable. Youngsters Erik Bedard and Daniel Cabrera will fill the middle of the rotation. Bedard, a lefty, is just 26 and posted 7.93 K/9 in his rookie season last year. Cabrera, 23, tallied 12 victories in his rookie effort, but his 89 walks against just 76 strike outs in just under 150 innings raises a red flag. The fifth slot could belong to Eric DuBose, who had a dismal 2004 that was marred by injury, or perhaps veteran Bruce Chen who was good in seven starts for Baltimore last year. My guess would be Matt Riley, however, who is left-handed like the other two, but only 25-years-old, and still talented despite undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2000.

Closer Jorge Julio may have some competition for his spot, as southpaw B.J. Ryan was considerably more effective last year. Julio will likely begin the season as the team's closer, but could lose his job if he struggles, after putting up a 4.57 ERA last season. Jason Grimsley and John Parrish will return to the 'pen, and should give manager Lee Mazzilli some flexibility from both the right and left side. Newly acquired Steve Reed and Steve Kline are another right-lefty tandem that should contribute many quality innings to what looks to be a very solid bullpen.

With a pretty imposing lineup, a young core of starting pitchers that should continue to improve, and a versatile bullpen that would be dominating with a better closer, Baltimore should once again be good enough to capture third place in the AL East. At this point, however, it just isn't possible for them to challenge Boston and New York at the top of the division.

Although it may well cost Lou Piniella ten years of his life, the Devil Rays are benefitting from his guidance, and if they played in the AL Central instead, maybe they'd have a shot at competing. Their outfield is young and promising, lead by Aubrey Huff, by far the most established hitter on the roster. Huff's stats were down just slightly in 2004, but he has had two legitimately impressive offensive campaigns in a row, and is still just 28-years-old. Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli make up the other two-thirds of the outfield, and both have good careers ahead of them. Crawford is maybe the fastest player ever, swiping 56 bases and accumulating nearly as many triples as doubles (19 versus 26) in 2004. Everyone who sees him play swears by him, and Lou Piniella is certain he'll win a batting title at some point in his career. Baldelli isn't spoken of in the same regard, but he is just as young as Crawford (23), and has put up two respectable seasons in a row to start his major league career. He is expected to return some time around the All-Star Break from his knee surgery, and in the mean time the D-Rays will have to plug the hole. Regardless of his injury, his family back in Woonsocket, Rhode Island must be proud. Combined, Tampa Bay's outfield has perhaps the most future potential of any team in baseball.

That said, the infield could use some help. Former Cub/Padre/Expo Alex S. Gonzalez looks to be this year's third baseman, and while his 2004 season was pretty awful, he has shown decent power over the course of his career. Twenty-three year old Jorge Cantu hit over .300 in his 173 at-bats last season, and is currently second baseman by default seeing as Roberto Alomar abruptly called it quits. Inconsistent Julio Lugo will return at short, where he can most certainly be counted on for respectable offensive numbers, a few steals, occasional outstanding defense, and oversized ears. Travis Lee rejoins the Devil Rays after logging a total of seven at-bats with the Yankees in 2004, and lazy-eyed Eduardo Perez will look to stay healthy long enough to play in more than 13 games, but the first base job should belong to 26-year-old Josh Phelps, who joins his third team in two seasons. Phelps is a talented hitter, but seems to be going in the wrong direction, with his last three OPS's dropping from .924 (2002) to .828 (2003) to .754 (2004). Catcher Toby Hall posted quite solid offensive numbers for his position in 2004 (.255-8-60), and doesn't get much recognition despite being a pretty decent backstop with an admirably short name.

If in the infield needs help, the starting rotation is in bloody shambles. While there are prospects on the way, the current starters are pure, uncut awful. Staff "ace" Mark Hendrickson held the staff high in wins (10), innings pitched (183.1), and strike outs (87), and he did it with a 4.81 ERA, allowing his opponents to hit .285 off of him. He accomplished all this and still had time to look just like Frankenstein with his pasty, off-color skin and Randy Johnson-like build. Number two starter Rob Bell would almost be respectable with his 8-8 record and 4.46 ERA if he didn't have a K/BB ratio of 1.39 in 2004 (57 K / 41 BB). The same story goes for Dewon Brazleton, although at just 24 he could still develop into a pretty good pitcher. Doug Waechter is also 24 and supposed to be good eventually, but the 6.01 ERA he posted in 14 starts last year doesn't seem to indicate a remarkable career is in the making. Highly-regarded 21-year-old southpaw Scott Kazmir was the only Devil Ray starter that had any ability to overpower the opposition (11.07 K/9), but he took a few beatings in his seven starts, finishing with a 5.67 ERA in his debut season. He won't have to improve much to become the ace in 2005. All said, Hendrickson lead the rotation in strike outs last season with his stunning 87; Victor Zambrano had 109 but was traded to the Mets to get Kazmir in mid-season.

The bullpen was a bit more of a positive note, and should continue to hold its own. Closer Danys Baez politely forced the door shut in 30 contests, but his pedestrian 3.57 ERA implies that this position could be upgraded. Still, opponents managed only a .237 batting average against him, and he only blew threw save opportunities. He may not have the same success in 2005, however. Jesus Colome was downright nasty, holding hitters to a .193 average and striking out nearly a batter an inning for a solid 3.27 ERA in 33 relief appearances. Left-handers Trever Miller and Bobby Seay impressed, while right-handers Lance Carter and Travis Harper combined for nine wins and over 150 innings.

Until Tampa Bay gets a real starting rotation, they're going nowhere, but even if some of their young talent emerges soon, they still can't play with the Yankees and Red Sox. Their exciting outfield and steady bullpen will keep them from hitting rock bottom, and it'll be interesting to see just how close they get to establishing themselves as the third best team in the American League East.

Mark Hendrickson's appearance is seriously disturbing.

After six consecutive third place finishes in the American League East, Toronto went for a change of pace last season and decided they wanted to be last instead. After losing Carlos Delgado to the Marlins in the fickle free agent game, I don't think they're climbing out of the cellar in 2005. All the same, The Jays' outfield has some intriguing components, starting with Vernon Wells, whose disappointing 2004 season epitomized Toronto as a whole, ultimately leading to the firing of manager Carlos Tosca. Wells struggled early on, got hot, and then suffered through injuries. He still put together an okay season (.272-23-67) while claiming his first gold glove and increasing his walk total for the third straight season. Much bigger things can be expected from him offensively in 2005 and beyond. Indeed, the 26-year-old Wells is pretty much a franchise player. Aggressive, impatient Reed Johnson will bring his scrappy attitude (and career .735 OPS) with him for another season as Toronto's every day left fielder. Lanky Alex Rios (6'5", 194) had 122 hits and 15 stolen bases as a rookie in 2004, and at just 24, the organization feels better things are to come. As his body fills out he can be expected to show more power. This is almost a certainty for 2005, as he currently has just one career dinger.

The off-season acquisition of Corey Koskie to play third base hardly replaces Carlos Delgado's production offensively. Koskie has been inconsistent in his career, and at 31, if he doesn't put it all together soon, he's not going to. His .836 career OPS is about exactly what Toronto can expect from him. There appears to be a hole at short stop, as the only one currently on their roster is Russ Adams, who did hit .306 in 72 at-bats last season, but those 72 at-bats are the only stats on his career resume. Orlando Hudson is the incumbent second baseman, and at 27, he now has two full major league seasons under his belt. "O-Dog" is good for a .270 batting average, a little bit of extra base power, and steady defense; he will fit nicely in the two slot. Shea Hillenbrand will continue to make the transition from third to first base, although his power isn't good enough to play on either side of the infield. He's a decent number six hitter, but .280-20-80 is as much as can be expected from him, and he just doesn't get on base very often. Last year's .348 mark was his career best. AL Rookie of the Year in 2002 Eric Hinske hasn't been the same since, batting .243 and .246 respectively the past two seasons while his OPS continues to slip. In a strange trend, Eric's walks have down steadily each year, and his number of extra base hits fell from 60 in his disappointing 2003 to just 41 in 2004. His stock is in serious question right now. Veteran catcher and career back-up Gregg Zaun looks to be the starter behind the plate once again, and Toronto would love it if he could somehow hit .269 again. Don't count on it, but he is surprisingly patient at the plate on the plus side.

For the nine baseball fans up in Canada, the best news regarding the starting rotation is that Pat Hentgen is seriously done pitching. The retirement appears to be of the permanent variety, and after last year's 2-9, 6.95 ERA showing, that is very reassuring. Like Vernon Wells, Roy Halladay is a young fixture on the Blue Jay roster that suffered a disappointing 2004 after a brilliant 2003. He was truly awesome in his effort to win the Cy Young in '03, and there's every reason to believe, health permitting, he'll reestablish himself as Toronto's ace and one of the better pitchers in the American League. Canadians can only pray his career doesn't follow the path of 1996 Cy Young Winner Pat Hentgen. Lefty Ted Lilly should be an adequate number two; after back to back 12-win seasons, he's proven he can be counted on. Josh Towers is expected to get another shot to prove himself in the rotation, and 25-year-old David Bush showed promise in his rookie season last year (5-4, 3.69). Gustavo Chacin looks to be the number five currently, although that may not last too long. He has potential, but currently boasts only 14 major league innings.

In an interesting move, former starter Miguel Batista has been designated as the closer for 2005, heading what will surely be a bad bullpen. Batista, with his career 4.47 ERA and 5.77 K/9 rate, doesn't figure to be very effective in that role, and if he is, it's probably a fluke. Last year's closer Jason Frasor may not have been ideal, but neither is Batista. Frasor should have moderate success moving to a less stressful role in the bullpen, and veteran Justin Speier was arguably the most consistent Blue Jay reliever last season. If Kerry Ligtenburg and Justin Miller remain, their respective ERAs will have to drop below 6.00 for the bullpen to be anything but horrendous. Twenty-two year old Brandon League is a probable member of the 'pen this year, and his success would give the relief a bit more respectability.

To be honest, there isn't a whole lot to like about this team aside from Halladay and Wells, and there are concerns about even them after last year. If they don't return to their amazing 2003 levels of production, the Jays could slip even farther back in their place at the bottom of the East. With the Expos moved to Washington, it's up to the Blue Jays to represent Canada, and at this point, it looks like they'll be doing a woeful job of it.

If ever you need proof that winning a Cy Young doesn't
make you a good pitcher.