Fourth Out
When Cree lost immunity for the third time, an absent Vince took the bullet for his tribemates.
The Story of Vince
The youngster from the Philippines was a friendly and enthusiastic Survivor. He initially adopted a lie-low strategy with alliances, and rightly so. His time zone would have made it very difficult to take any sort of leadership role. Vince attended most challenges and though he was by no means a "star" player, he helped where he could.
Vince's strategy did work, as the power-players in Cree divided. Aiden approached Vince, needing a fourth vote with Miriam and Staton. Everything seemed to be falling into place for Vince.
Why Vince?
Fatefully, Vince missed the third immunity challenge, and forfeited his vote at Tribal Council (as did Mike and Aiden). This put the two opposing alliances at 3 votes versus 2. There was nothing that Miriam and Staton could do to break up Karen, Rob and Janei, and Vince was the last and least-certain member of their voting block. It may be that a last-minute arrangement was struck, and Vince sacrificed to spare Aiden while protecting KRJ from stray votes.
Save Yourself, Vince!
What could Vince have done to save himself? For starters, he could have taken part in the immunity challenge. If he'd had his vote, then the Tribal Council might have tied 4-4 Mike versus Aiden. Also, Vince might have tried to build bonds a bit earlier, so that he wouldn't be the bottom man in the alliance. Or, alternatively, Vince could have made a strategic move and told Rob that Aiden and Miriam were after him. A gutsy move, it might have allowed Vince to supplant Mike's position in the KRJM alliance.
If Not Vince, Then Who?
Mike - Voting reasons suggested that Vince was least active in the challenges, but that distinction actually goes to Mike. Unfortunately for Vince, Mike is part of the KRJM block, and unlikely to have been voted out by his allies.
Aiden - Aiden has missed as many challenges as Vince. If Vince had informed Rob how Aiden was plotting against him, that might have been enough to shift the vote away from Vince. However, Aiden's allies, Staton and Miriam, have become very tactful and may have been able to make some deal to protect him.
Miriam or Staton - Although Miriam was nearly voted-out at the first Tribal Council, she has since made up a lot of ground. Miriam and Staton each have been very diplomatic and tolerant with Rob about his behavior, while Aiden practically egged him on. Miriam and Staton have also proven themselves assets in the challenges, and it would be a huge upset to vote either of them off.
Karen or Janei - They have missed as many challenges as Vince, but they have contributed more when they do attend challenges, and have a solid alliance to boot. Again, it's way too early for either of them to leave.
Rob - Like Miriam and Staton, Rob has perfect challenge participation and has been strong (if sometimes over-enthusiastic) for the tribe. Unfortunately, his competitiveness coupled with Cree's losing streak has oft-times made him a difficult tribemate. Rob was close to being voted-out if Cree hadn't been exempt from the second Tribal Council. However, Rob has a solid alliance and seems to have patched things up — or been granted some mutual leeway — with his non-allies.
Dan, Emmanuel, Kelley - Yes, they're on Paleo, but it's worth noting that these three players have all missed more challenges than Vince.
Conclusion
Vince's vote-out was a slight upset, as he was not the least deserving on his tribe (nor in the game). Unfortunately, a penalty vote and his late start with alliances made him a target. Vince's wait-to-be-approached strategy assumed that he would have more time to build bonds, time that Cree's losing streak did not allow him.
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