Shut-Out for Shane
When Shane missed an immunity challenge, he was shut-out of the vote and easy prey for his former and current allies. Only Tabatha was true to Shane, but Rick silenced her and in a 5-0 Tribal Council vote Shane became the fifth jury member.
The Story of Shane
Shane had a good start in Paleo, was strong in challenges and well-liked by his tribemates. Shane gradually built alliances with Tabatha, Rick and Michelle, but was aware enough of the game to suspect that the latter two would try to use him. By the fourth episode he had a four-way alliance with these players and a separate alliance with Diana, though was wise enough to know Tabatha was his most valuable ally.
When the Paleo Pride alliance was formed, however, Shane seems to have changed priorities and permited the objectives of his alliances to supplant his own personal game objectives. To some extent, Shane felt he had the numbers behind him. He and Tabatha were a solid two in his final four alliance, which formed a majority in Paleo Pride, which held a majority in the merged Keyano. If everything went to plan, he was fine. But each one of those alliances allowed the possibility of betrayal.
Shane may have been looking too hard for betrayal, and saw it in Michelle. Rumours and a stray vote fueled paranoia. But though Shane proved himself willing to vote out one ally, he didn't seem to consider it again even when he felt he was in trouble. After attending 14 consecutive challenges — a game record! — Shane missed this round's reward and immunity, and was voted out. Was it bad timing for him? Or was Shane satisfied to take his alliance (or most of it) to the end, beating Cree?
Cree's Revenge?
It's interesting to note that, though Cree couldn't save themselves, their votes did successfully mark the first two Paleo's to be voted out: Michelle and now Shane. These were also the only unanimous eliminations (having more than a single vote cast).
Why Shane?
Shane noted at the beginning of the game: "Usually I come off strong which is a way I get voted off early so this time I'm going to play laid back." His "laid back" act was not adequate disguise, though, and two vote reasons stated that he was a strong player despite never having an individual win.
More than one player also recognized that Shane and Tabatha were close allies, and would be more and more difficult to break up as the game progressed further toward finals.
A peripheral but significant point to targeting Shane was Diana's early alliance with Jon. Rick was reluctant to push Diana against Jon at this stage, and so betrayed Shane (his own early ally) instead.
The nail in Shane's coffin was a penalty self-vote for missing the immunity challenge. At this point, of 9 Tribal Council eliminations, 6 had self-votes and 1 was eligible but missed the vote. At this stage of the game, when there are very few votes in play, a self-vote is suicide.
Save Yourself, Shane!
Like five of the Survivors eliminated before him, Shane could have participated in the immunity challenge if he wanted to save himself; he did recognize that he might need it.
Shane could have also tried for a reward win. All rewards have been bonuses for Tribal Council, and with so few votes to be cast have quite a bit of power. Rick had sided against Shane primarily to avoid the chance of a tie; had Shane held the reward bonus, I expect that Rick would have switched to Shane and Tabatha for the same reason.
Also, Shane was distrustful of Diana. But so far as I can tell, he did not follow-up on this with any investigation to find out if she had other plans, nor did he provide himself with contingencies.
If Not Shane, Then Who?
Kelley - Had Shane won either the immunity or the reward, Rick and Diana were ready and willing to swing to Shane and Tabatha's side, and vote out Kelley instead. But Kelley is quite consciously going along with Rick and letting Rick think that he's playing her.
Tabatha - As Shane's ally and a strong player in her own right, Tabatha might have also become an alternate target to Shane.
Jon - Jon appears to be an alliance non-threat, at least to power-players Rick and Diana, so not likely a target yet.
Diana - Diana seems to have faded from the game recently. Someone might have tried to pull a fast one on this popular Survivor.
Rick - It'd be such a coup d'etat for Rick to go... but not likely unless either Diana turns on him or the other players really compare notes.
Conclusion
Shane stuck to an endgame strategy devised prior to the merge, and failed to adapt to the changing game. In the end, Shane got played for a sucker, finishing further back than if he'd switched sides with the Cree players. Shane walked blindly into his own elimination.
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