Special Article: Merge Analysis

Marking the halfway point of the game, here are some numbers for review and forecasts of what might be.

Cree Cruises to Calamity; Paleo Pushes for Prize

It seems unfathomable that one tribe would so dominate over another.  Paleo won all five immunity challenges and arrived at the merge outnumbering Cree nearly 3-to-1.  How on Earth did this happen?

One might say that Cree were lazy — statistics show that challenge participation is virtually identical for each tribe.  Cree had the same percentage of their tribe competing as Paleo.  There is insufficient data to say whether Cree worked as long or as effectively as Paleo, but proportionately they showed up just as often.

Was it that Cree was outnumbered, and once they were at a numbers disadvantage this became a handicap they couldn't overcome?  Certainly this was a factor.  Sit-outs were introduced in an attempt to compensate, though they were not applied uniformly and gave advantage to Paleo.

Another factor is morale.  Once Cree began losing, and continued losing, it was difficult to get their spirits up.  Several of their players seemed to have resigned themselves from an unwinnable situation.  The losing streak also fueled arguments on Cree which did not help matters.

What about player distribution?  There were two players who lived outside of North America, and both were assigned to Cree.  Time zone differences naturally limited their ability to work with their tribemates, and they were the second and third evictions from Cree.

Meanwhile, on Paleo, the two least-impressive players were replaced with alternates shortly into the first episode.  This essentially gave Paleo two "free" evictions, losing a pair of inactives without reducing the number of players on the tribe.  That one of the alternates was Tabatha definitely helped Paleo, as she is largely responsible for one or two of their wins.

Analysis

With the 6-7 member Paleo Pride alliance already forming a majority, perhaps 1 or 2 Paleo hangers-on and only 3 left from Cree — and about 7 of these players evenly-matched in terms of challenge-winning strength — what's going to happen?  Either Paleo Pride will stick together, each one of them convinced that they're a part of the four-member majority within the alliance.  Or a couple of Paleo Pride will get smart to the fact they'll be voted out 5th to 7th and try to make a new alliance with a better chance of taking them further.

It really depends on how and when Paleo Pride is going to split.  What are the likely and loyal alliances within it?

Rick-Michelle-Shane + Shane-Tabatha - They've been solid since the early game, with Shane gradually bringing Tabatha into the group.  They seem to be the power group, if they can hold it together.

Diana-Jon - The last remnants of the Diana-Dan-Jon + Eman alliance, which had offset the four above.  This alliance is down to a partnership of Diana and Jon since Dan was evicted and Eman is likely to follow.

Diana-Rick - They were my early pick for finals as this secret partnership had split up and made alliances covering the rest of Paleo.  This would have put them in an ideal strategic position to play the two sides against each other while getting themselves to the final two.  However, while Rick seems to be playing Diana for her loyalty, he no longer needs Diana and seems to be investing primarily in Michelle and Shane.

Jon and Kelley - Jon and Kelley each list Diana as their top ally.  The three are strong in challenges and could be a significant force in the game, except that Diana is placing all of her trust in Rick.  Jon and Kelley have felt somewhat isolated in the game, and that could be exploited by the right player.  Jon and Kelley might be the dark-horse candidates to take the field as more threatening, strategic players are voted out.

Staton and Miriam have proven themselves very diplomatic, and Janei is also capable in that regard.  It's a waiting game to see if they or others can take advantage of the inevitable fractures in the alliances and make a bid to survive.

Contents | Articles Previous Next | Merge | Bios | Cast Performance | Challenge Tracker | Vote Tracker | Site Map