Kelley's Kaput
Kelley completes the Jury when ally and cooking colleague Rick wins the final immunity challenge and chooses to go to the final two with Jon instead.
Evaluation
Kelley was an excellent come-from-behind player. Certainly in the bottom-half of the Paleo tribe, she was not particularly active, missing half of the challenges and not particularly strong with alliances. Like finalist Jon, this kept Kelley off the threat-radar. She was by no means a strategic threat, and never controlled the vote.
However, Kelley came on strong at the merge. At no time since the merge had any Survivor more individual wins than Kelley. (Rick occassionally tied her, and over the last five challenges they alternated with him tying then her pulling ahead.) Kelley was the only player to have back-to-back individual wins, and held individual immunity four times — twice as often as her closest competitor (Rick). Unfortunately, Kelley did not win the one time she really needed it: final immunity.
Why Kelley?
Simply put, Rick didn't believe that he could win the Jury vote against Kelley, and he was probably right. Rick was counting on the Jury making their decision based on performance: though Rick was ahead of Kelley for strategy, she had been stronger on challenges. Also, Kelley was third on the popularity poll, after Diana and Shane. Combining that with Rick's alliance betrayals would have tipped the scales in Kelley's favour.
What Could Kelley Have Done?
There was nothing Kelley could have done except to win final immunity herself. Jon fared even worse on the challenge, and an alliance with him might not have gotten her anywhere — Jon had done his best to position himself so either Rick or Kelley would take him to finals, and in doing so Jon's own choice is unclear.
Who Else Could It Have Been?
Tabatha - If Rick had been voted out at final four — which was really the last chance to get rid of him — and Tabatha brought ahead, Tabatha would have survived to this round before Jon and Kelley voted her out, putting themselves in finals.
Conclusion
Voting out Kelley was the right choice for Rick. She was one of the toughest competitors and one of the more-liked players amongst the jury, so she definitely had to go.
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