Steve Sailer has been relentless in attacking George W. Bush's chief strategist and campaign advisor, Karl Rove. Although Sailer supports George W. Bush, he has been vicious in attacking Karl Rove. What was Karl Rove's crime in Sailer's eyes? It's because Karl Rove is trying to outreach to the non-white races to gather votes.
Since VDare was established around 2000, Steve Sailer was among the initial employees. One of Sailer's focal points on VDare was the Sailer strategy, that the white vote is important, and the non-white vote (and everything else accomplished by non-whites) is irrelevant and trash. Let's look at some of his predictions on race and voting, how it actually turned out in 2004, and the future ahead in politics.
1.White Vote not as Influential as Sailer Predicted
In 2000, Sailer wrote an article for VDare called 'GOP Future Depends on Winning Larger Share of the White Vote.' Since then, one of the main highlights of his website is the Sailer Strategy - that the white vote is important, and the non-white vote is irrelevant. After the 2000 Presidential Election ended, Sailer made this prediction.
What if Bush II had won 57% of the white vote? That's hardly an outlandish figure since Bush I had taken 59% in 1988. If Dubya had garnered 57% instead of just 54% of whites, he would have cruised to an Electoral College landslide of 367 to 171. Why? Because whites remain by far the dominant bloc in the U.S. They count for 81% of all votes cast.
Four years later, let's examine the impact of race and voting. Data from CNN, the same source Sailer originally derived his raw data from in 2000.
2000 Election Results Data
2004 Election Results Data
The biggest news in the race and election results for the likes of Sailer is that George W. Bush did gather a greater share of the white vote in 2004. In 2000, Bush won 54% of the white vote; in 2004, Bush won 58% of the white vote. If Bush earned a staggering 58% of the white vote, he should have crushed the electoral votes, according to Sailer (Sailer predicted if Bush won 57% of the white vote in 2000, he would have crushed the electoral votes, 367 to 171).
However, Bush marginally beat John F. Kerry 286 to 252 in the electoral votes (and even less in the popular vote, 51% to 48%). There were five states Bush narrowly won (Ohio, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada), which could have allowed Kerry to tie or win the electoral college. So why didn't the white vote carry Bush to a landslide electoral victory as Sailer predicted? It's because the white vote is losing influence as America becomes more diverse and multicultural in population and in the voting booths.
From 2000 to 2004, the white vote declined from 81% to 77% of the total popular vote. Every year the minority population and vote increases, and statistical trends indicate the trend will continue for decades to come, much to the dismay of white supremacists like Sailer. The difference is that the minority vote increased in numbers, allowing the Presidential race to come to a close result.
2. Karl Rove did succeed in winning more of the minority vote, and it helped George Bush in 2004
In 2000 Bush won 24% of the non-white vote and 48 percent of the popular vote; in 2004, Bush won 28% of the non-white vote and 51 percent of the popular vote (actually, a little under 51.0%). Because the minority vote increased from 19 to 23 percent from 2000 to 2004, and a greater number of minorities voted for Bush, he was most fortunate to barely win the majority of the popular vote (i.e. break the 50.0% mark) in 2004.
3. However, Bush's 2004 victory wasn't impressive, and rather dismal from an economical viewpoint
The non-white races are increasing in population and voting power every year, while the reverse is happening for the Whites, thus diluting the Sailer Strategy. If the Republicans (GOP) do not gain the momentum on winning minority votes, they will lose out by 2008. Another summary of the 2004 elections.
Bush has all these advantages in 2004, and yet he barely won the election.
4. The 2008 election and beyond will become more dependant on minorities
Let's project a best-case scenario of the 2008 Republican Presidential candidate, and see if he can accomplish in 2008 what Bush accomplish did in 2004. First, the Republican candidate must win 58% percent of the white vote. Even the strongest Republicans in the past decades were only capable of winning the upper 50 percent range of the white vote. Then, the candidate must win a record 28 percent of the minority vote, a record and feat republican only Bush accomplished in 2004.
By the time 2008 rolls around, about 73 percent of voters will be white, and 27 percent will be non-white. Even if the Republican can accomplish the best-case scenario of what Bush did in 2004, the GOP candidate will not win the majority of the popular vote!. The GOP candidate will win at most 49.9% of the popular vote.
The GOP picture looks bleak for 2008, as there is no one imminent in the Republican horizon who is capable of doing all the following:
The only choice for the republicans is to do what Karl Rove did all along, reach out to the minority vote, and gain momentum with them as the minority vote increases.
5. The Sailer Strategy is dead, along with Sailer's own career.
Sailer and VDare having receiving a bad rap in the mainstream media since 2000. While they were marginally known in the past, their hatred for the non-whites has become more noticeable by the mainstream public and press. VDare has been listed as a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center, and more Americans are becoming aware of VDare's racist intentions, who employ racist hatemongers like Steve Sailer, Sam Francis, Peter Brimelow, Michelle Malkin, and more. When David Brooks, an New York Times employee, quoted a so-called IQ expert named Steve Sailer, more people were aware of Sailer and did protest (thanks in help to this site), not to mention Brooks made an embarrassment of himself and the New York Times (What's next David Brooks, are you going to cite sources like Philippe Rushton, Charles Murray, or David Duke on race issues, and get yourself in even deeper trouble?).
Make no mistake of it. The minority population in America is growing in numbers, status, voting power, and income. The year 2004 will be the last time the Sailer Strategy will have any significant impact. So, Steve Sailer, who is the stupid party now? Fire Karl Rove? No! Fire Steve Sailer!