With the 2004 election over, Steve Sailer is twisting his statistics around to accomodate his racist views of white supremacy. He has written several articles emphatically on his statistical findings that states who vote for George Bush tend to have higher birth rates, and the Republicans are better positioned in the voting booths for years to come. And, of course, Sailer has statistics to bolster his racist claims that the non-whites are inferior. The topic has been so emotional for Sailer that he takes time to write blog entries on critics, like American Prospect's blog TAPped writer Garance Franke-Ruta, and his allies, like New York Times columnist David Brooks.
The problems with statistics is that they are meant to be altered, twisted, and embellished to meet the author's biased agenda. Sailer is especially devious with statistics, as his agenda is to twist statistics to spread his message of white superiority. Instead of writing an eloquent and emotional article, we'll get right to the point and show how Sailer deceives us with his statistics, and why the white race isn't as superior as Sailer wants us to think.
1. The minority birth rates do have a significant impact on the total birth rates of a state and the voting power.
This 2003 Center for Disease Control article lists the birth rates for all races (page 12). Below are two tables, the white birth rates and voting by state which Sailer shows us (left), and the birth rates of all races and voting by state which Sailer deliberately omits (right).
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2004 Election: State Voting by Fertility Rates |
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| Sorted by White Fertility (shown on Sailer's website) | Sorted by Fertility of All Races (not shown by Sailer) | |||
| State | White Fertility | State | Fertility of All Races | |
| Utah | 2.45 | Utah | 92.2 | |
| Alaska | 2.28 | Arizona | 79.3 | |
| Idaho | 2.20 | Texas | 78.3 | |
| Kansas | 2.06 | Idaho | 76.0 | |
| Nebraska | 2.02 | Alaska | 72.7 | |
| South Dakota | 2.02 | Hawaii | 72.3 | |
| Oklahoma | 2.01 | Nevada | 72.2 | |
| Wyoming | 1.99 | New Mexico | 71.5 | |
| Arkansas | 1.94 | Nebraska | 71.4 | |
| Indiana | 1.94 | South Dakota | 70.8 | |
| Texas | 1.93 | California | 69.9 | |
| Arizona | 1.92 | Kansas | 69.5 | |
| Mississippi | 1.92 | Colorado | 69.5 | |
| New Mexico | 1.90 | Georgia | 69.3 | |
| Georgia | 1.90 | Oklahoma | 69.2 | |
| Missouri | 1.89 | Arkansas | 68.1 | |
| Ohio | 1.89 | Mississippi | 67.9 | |
| Iowa | 1.89 | Illinois | 67.0 | |
| Louisiana | 1.88 | Indiana | 66.5 | |
| Michigan | 1.88 | Louisiana | 66.4 | |
| Montana | 1.87 | North Carolina | 65.8 | |
| Colorado | 1.86 | Wyoming | 65.7 | |
| Nevada | 1.85 | New Jersey | 64.5 | |
| Kentucky | 1.85 | Delaware | 64.3 | |
| North Carolina | 1.84 | Minnesota | 64.2 | |
| Alabama | 1.84 | Missouri | 64.1 | |
| New Jersey | 1.83 | Ohio | 63.7 | |
| Minnesota | 1.83 | Florida | 63.4 | |
| Tennessee | 1.83 | Iowa | 63.3 | |
| Virginia | 1.82 | Virginia | 63.3 | |
| Maryland | 1.81 | Kentucky | 63.2 | |
| Illinois | 1.80 | Tennessee | 63.1 | |
| South Carolina | 1.80 | South Carolina | 63.0 | |
| West Virginia | 1.80 | Montana | 62.6 | |
| Florida | 1.78 | Alabama | 62.6 | |
| North Dakota | 1.78 | Oregon | 62.5 | |
| Wisconsin | 1.78 | Maryland | 62.3 | |
| Oregon | 1.76 | Michigan | 61.6 | |
| Connecticut | 1.75 | North Dakota | 61.6 | |
| Washington | 1.72 | Washington | 61.2 | |
| New York | 1.72 | New York | 61.1 | |
| Pennsylvania | 1.72 | Wisconsin | 60.7 | |
| Delaware | 1.71 | Connecticut | 59.6 | |
| New Hampshire | 1.69 | West Virginia | 58.1 | |
| California | 1.65 | Massachusetts | 57.2 | |
| Maine | 1.65 | Rhode Island | 56.5 | |
| Vermont | 1.63 | Pennsylvania | 56.0 | |
| Massachusetts | 1.60 | D.C. | 53.8 | |
| Hawaii | 1.59 | New Hampshire | 52.7 | |
| Rhode Island | 1.50 | Maine | 52.1 | |
| D.C. | 1.11 | Vermont | 51.1 | |
Notes:
1) Red - State voted for Bush, Blue - State voted for Kerry
2) White Fertility: Average Number of children a white woman will bear in her lifetime (according to Sailer's source)
3) Fertility of All Races: Total births per 1,000 women aged 15�44 years of all races (CDC).
From the first table above, the red and blue states tend to even out much better for the Democrats than the picture Sailer is trying to portray. As this Media Matters article points out:
Brooks and Sailer asserted that Bush carried the 19 states with the highest white fertility rates, and Kerry the 16 states with the lowest. But, according to data from a National Center for Health Statistics report, when the birth rates of all women are considered, regardless of race, "blue" states such as California, Illinois, and Hawaii are among the top 19 states, while other "blue" states such as Minnesota, Delaware, and Maryland make it into the top 26. Among the bottom 16 were "red" states such as Iowa, North Dakota, Florida, Montana, and West Virginia.
Overlooking Sailer's charade that the whole country is heading to the far right, Bush won a total of 51% of the popular vote, and Kerry won 48% of the popular vote. This is a narrow win. In the electoral college, Bush's victory wasn't so staggering, either. Bush won 286 electoral votes in 31 states, while Kerry won 252 electoral votes in 20 states.
3. The white race is declining in number and voting power.
Sailer claims we are too shocked that anyone would dare write such politically incorrect things and truths. Well, here's another truth to point out that may shock Sailer: The white race is declining in number and voting power.
The reason the white race is declining in numbers and proportion is because the white birth rate is too low. To maintain a stable zero-population growth race for a large population over the long run, a woman needs to give birth to an average of 2.2 children in her lifetime. The first 2.0 children average is to replace the natural father and mother, and the additional 0.2 children average is to replace people lost from accidental death, such as disease, accidents, homicide, suicide, etc....
If a population group averages less than 2.2 children per woman, the population group will decline in number over time. In Steve Sailer's statistics, 48 of the 51 states had white birth rates below the 2.2 mark (Note: District of Columbia is being counted as a state)! Only three states have zero population growth rates or higher for whites: Utah (2.45), Alaska (2.28), and Idaho (2.20).
Furthermore, with each of the three states being among the least populated
states in the nation (all have 5 or less electoral votes each), and only Utah being only marginally above the zero population growth rate while Alaska and Idaho are at the ZPGR, it comes as no surprise the white population is not increasing as Sailer wants us to believe.
4. America is becoming a more diverse, multicultural nation.
The population and voting power of the non-white races in America keeps increasing and having a stronger influence every year. Article and statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau 2000:
http://www.census.gov/population/www/pop-profile/natproj.html
| U.S. Population Share by Race | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year: | 2000 | 2025 | 2050 |
| White | 71.6% | 62.0% | 52.5% |
| Black | 12.8% | 14.2% | 15.7% |
| American Indian | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Asian | 4.4% | 7.5% | 10.3% |
| Hispanic | 11.3% | 16.8% | 22.5% |
So don't be fooled by Sailer's half-truths and deliberate, fraudulent omissions of relevant facts. The truth is, the non-white races in America keep growing in size, power, and influence. Every year, the non-white races make up a larger share in the voting polls, and more minorities are being elected into places of power.