 THE RAMS & THE NFC NEXT SEASON, BY JEFF
(March 9) |
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I. THE RAMS 1. HOW THINGS STAND. The Rams are sitting very very pretty. They have only lost 3 starters, and nobody who is irreplaceable. Due to all the spending by other teams, the market is about to dry up. If I am right, the Rams are the only team left with any cap room. That means that there a lot of very good players out there that cannot demnad large salaries. The Rams can still sign their star players in the future (they have not spent future money unwisely). The Rams future is looking brighter and brighter all the time. 2.DEPTH & THE O LINE. And forget about the depth issue. Are we as deep as last year? No. But we still have more quantity and quality of depth than any another team. Our #2 QB (Green), #3 WR (Hakim), #4 WR (Proehl), #3 OLB (Little), #3 CB (Bly) and #3 S (Coady) could start for most teams. We also have potential stars in Spikes, Hodgins and Barnes. THAT is depth. Yes, we could use more depth at DT, LB, DB and TB, but Armey should take care of that in the draft and by picking up some veteran FAs late. One great example of Rams depth is the offensive line. Todd Fro is the key to the Rams entire draft. If they really feel he is healthy and has as much potential as Armey has been saying, then the Rams are pretty set at OL and may not draft an OL sooner than the 4th or 5th round. * You do not need 5 players for adequate depth on the OL. There is a reason the Rams retained the players they did and why Miami offered Tucker what they did. Right now, the Rams have adequate depth as long as Todd Fro is ready---> Pace goes down - Tucker moves to LT and Fro comes in at RT. Timm or Nutten go down - Spikes takes their place. If both go down, Spikes and McCollum move to OG, Tucker moves to C and Fro moves to RT. McCollum goes down - Nutten moves to C and Spikes goes to OG. Tucker goes down - Fro takes his place. Both Tucker and Pace go down - You are screwed. No team could afford to lose their top 2 OTs! * The top 7 OL are not going anywhere for 3 years. The 5 starters are signed for at least the next 3 years and Spikes and Fro will not be UFAs for 3 years. The Rams should be set for the near future. I wouldn't mind another quality player being thrown into the mix, but it is not worth spending a high pick on an OL when we need a future starter at DT and OLB in the near future (2001-2002) and you can never have enough CBs. * Tucker should be at least Millers equal, most likely an upgrade (he will not get bull rushed and he showed quick feet last year, which will help him neutrilize speed rushers). * I, along with many others, was impressed by McCollum when he replaced Nutten early in the year. He is a solid run blocker. If he can make the right calls, he may be an improvement over Grutt. * In conclusion. We are not in dire need of an OLinemen to come in and help immediately. Of course this all changes if the Rams are lying and Fro is not ready. 3. THE SCHEDULE. The Rams will go 14-2 or 15-1 next year! Well, as long as Faulk, Bruce, Holt, Carter, Wistrom and Warner (only if Green is traded) are not seriously injured. Home games: (We will not lose at home!) 1) Carolina (W) - Might be our toughest home game. But, they lost their 2 biggest playmakers on defense (Barrow and Greene). 2) Atlanta (W) - Their only QB is brittle and has trouble finishing games, let alone the season. Anderson will not be like new until 2001. Jefferson does not equal Martin. They also lost their 2 starting DEs. 3) San Francisco (W) - To be honest, they are the worst team in the NFC. 4) New Orleans (W) - Alot of new additions, but they lost their best CB and Joe Johnson will not be effective until 2001. Offense might cause some problems, except they still have no WRs and Blake cannot read defenses or throw underneath. Williams could be dangerous though. 3rd place in West. 5) Washington (W) - Extremely overrated. WRs are marginal at best and they only have 2. They have no left tackle and their defensive personnel has not relly changed in quality. Write it down, we will blow them out. (More on this below.) 6) Minnesota (W) - They will finish last in the NFC Central. Defense is horrible, no QB and no heart. 7) Denver (W) - Could be the toughest game along with the Carolina game. They still need a QB and davis will not be the same next year. 8) San Diego (W) - No QB, RB or WRs (well, Conway if he can stay healthy). The loss of Hand will be a big blow for their defense, but they still have no offense. Away Games: 1) Carolina (toss up) - Along with TB, this is our toughest game. 2) Atlanta (W) -See above 3) San Francisco (W) - See above 4) New Orleans (W) - This game may be close. 5) Tampa Bay (Toss up) - This will be a war. They still need an offense though and the loss of Barber and Nickerson will hurt. (More on this below.) 6) N.Y. Giants (W) - No QB, RB or OL. Should be about the same as last year, but maybe worse. 7) Kansas City (Toss up) - KC is very difficult at home. They have a good efense, but the loss of Thomas and Tongue are really going to hurt. They still need a QB and RB. Gonzalez scares me. Bush and Jones have to come up big in this game. 8) Seattle (W) - QB is marginal, even with Holmgren. Their RB is old and slow and they lost their best WR. Their defense has talent, but never plays well. I will be surprised if they make the playoffs. IMO, have could lose the away games at Carolina, TB and KC, but not all 3. I just do not see us finishing worse than 13-3, but most likely 14-2 or 15-1. Of course this could change with an injury to 1 of the playesr I listed at the top (Faulk, Bruce, Holt, Carter, Wistrom, and Warner). II. THE MAJOR COMPETITION? Everyone says that Washington and Tampa are the Rams major competition in the NFC next year. How good are they, really? WASHINGTON. How much has Wash really improved? Everyone is jumping on Washington's bandwagon, and I ask why. Wash was a 10-6 team last year, in which 4 of the 6 losses were to .500 or worse teams (Dallas, Philly and Detroit). Their defense was just awful, 30th in the league, and their offense really tailed off after midseason. But, lets take a look at their offseason which has suddenly made them the favorites or co-favorites. 1. Bruce Smith: Although Smith has a name, he has no more game. My good friend, who is a Bill fan, told me at the end of last season that they would let Smith go. partly due to financial reasons, but mainly due to him falling to the 4th most effective DL on the team. Here are Smith's #s over the past 3 years: 97: 49 tackles, 16 assists and 14 sacks 98: 35 tackles, 15 assists and 10 sacks 99: 34 tackles, 11 assists and 6.5 sacks as you can see, Smiths #s are in a tailspin, which would make since considering his age and the number off serious injuries he has sustained throghout his career. Also, He and Coleman play the same position, RDE, that utilizes their speed. Neither has played LDE. How will this effect the play of the player switching positions? I am telling you right now, Smith will not improve their defense at all. 2. Carrier: People still refer to Carrier as a pro bowl safety, although his only pro bowl was during his rookie year 7-8 years ago. If carrier was that good, why is he about to play for his 3rd team in 4 years? Carrier can hit, but he just can not make plays on the ball any longer. He does not have great speed or instincts, he is just a hitter. Not even close to an elite or pro bowl safty. IMO, he may slighty upgrade the SS position, but should not be a major factor. 3. The number 2 and 3 picks in the draft. They are going to take Arrington and Samuels. Neither one of these guys will help this year. Samuels: OTs just do not make a major contribution their rookie year. There have been a great deall of better rated OTs that have entered the league, but did little their 1st year (Pace, Jones, Ogden, etc). IMO, Samuels will be a downgrade from last years starter Andy Heck (at least this year). Arrington: Same as above. With the exception of Kearse last year, defensive front seven players have not had a major impact their rookie year. Can you name the last LB to have a major impact his rookie year? Kevin Hardy was the best college OLB that I have ever seen play. He was by far a more complete player than Derric Thomas, LT, Bennet and the others, including Arrington. Yet Hardy had some difficulty adjusting and really didn't make an impact until hid 3rd seasonHardy, who m did not become a froce until his 3rd year. Anyone who expects a rookie to come in a make a big impact in his rookie year is not being realistic. Arrington will will either provide a moderate upgrade or he could be a slight downgrade from last years starter---he could have trouble adjusting and actually be a downgrade from last year's starter. I love Arrington as a player and would be estatic if the Rams could draft him...but history tells us that his impact may be minimal this year. Both Samuels and Arrington will be very good to great players in 2-3 years, but by then it won't matter, since Wash will not be a factor due to the cap problems they have created for themselves. 4. Washington's schedule Home - Dallas, N.Y. Giants, Arizona, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Tennessee, Baltimore All 4 out of conference home games are going to be very difficult and they should all be playoff teams Away - Dallas, N.Y. Giants, Arizona, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Detroit, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh 3 very tough out of conference road games (they were blown out by Detroit last year in Detroit and Detroit has a running game now). I just do not see how they are going to go 12-4. They could go 11-5, but yo get there, they are going to have to play very well all year. Their schedule is far more difficult than ours. 5. In conclusion. So let's see, Wash really has not upgraded its team from last year. It has completely destroyed its cap come 2001 and next year it must find the money to resign their starting QB and WRs (Johnson, Westbrook and Connell), all UFAs after 2000. IMO, The Rams (due to the maturity and natural improvement of young players, as well as being more comfortable with the offensive system) have improved more than Washington has. TAMPA BAY. TB might be the biggest obstacle again for the Rams, but they also have problems and I do not know if they improved or not from last year. The losses of Nickerson and Barber are going to really hurt their defense. 1. Nickerson: He, not Sapp, was the heart and soul of that defense. The MLB may not be the best player, but he is definately the most important player on a defense. He not only calls the signals, but he provides leadership and helps set the mood for the defense. I have also posted previously that every elite defense has had a difference maker at MLB. This is an absolute huge blow and I see it having a major impact as it did when he went down in 98 (TB really came apart after he had to sit with his heart problem). Here are 2 examples of what a MLB means: In 1992, the Cowboys won the super bowl and had the #1 defense. But, Johnson did not feel that his MLB made enough plays and provided enough leadership. So Johnson benched Robert Jones and moved Ken Norton to MLB. If that position did not matter, why would a coach alter his #1 super bowl winning defense? It is not a coincidence that the Rams defense went from a 20-something ranking in rush defense to 1st after Fletcher was inserted as the MLB. Yes, the high scoring offense helped, but the Rams were also ranked #1 in yards/carry on 1st down (when Fletch was always in the game and the score did not matter). Other players improved (it was not soley due to Fletch) but he had a major impact on that improvement. So....the loss of Nickerson is really going to hurt that defense. 2. Barber: A very solid starting CB. IMO, 1 of TBs strengths was their CB play. Losing Barber will really hurt in their coverages and put even more pressure on their safeties. Remember, their 3rd corner gave up the touchdown to Proehl and now he takes Barbers place. This will also be a major loss. 3. The Bucs also lost Gruber, possibly their best OL, and Mayberry, their 2nd best OL. They are going to draft a replacement for Gruber. Remember the huge game Wistrom had against Gruber's replacement. The loss of Mayberry who was a pro bowler in 97 and 98 was softened with the addition of Christy. This will actually be an upgrade for TB, but not by that great of a margin. 4. TBs offensive success will all depend on the improvement of King. IMO, King will never be a good NFL QB. He is not that accurate of a thrower and has problems going down field. King also has no WRs to throw the ball to. 5. Steckel will not help much. The only reason his offense was even remotely effective was due to McNair's running ability. King is not even close to having McNair's running ability and thus the same offense will not be effective. The Buc running backd do not even come close to scarring me. 5. Tampa Bay's schedule Home - Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, St. Louis, Dallas, Buffalo, N.Y. Jets 3 of their out of conference home games are against playoff teams from last year, and the Jets may be better than Dallas or Buffalo. Away - Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, Washington, Atlanta, Miami, New England 2 of their out of conference road games are against playoff teams from last year. NE may also give them a very good game, especially if it is at the end of the year (TB has trouble in cold weather). How did they get Atlanta on their schedule? Oh yeah, they actually placed 3rd in the NFC West. TB has a more difficult schedule than us as well. I see them having a 10-6 or 11-5 season if things go well and King improves. 6. In conclusion. I just do not see an improved Buc offense (they have no play makers) and the losses on defense are really going to hurt the defense. I do not see TB winning their division. |
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