3zine.jpg (21333 bytes)Trying to Make Sense of the Cap- Thread initiated by lawdog 3/27
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[Ed. note: Trying to understand the cap ramifications of our QB situation is like trying to get a grip on the theory of quantum mechanics. In this thread, lawdog offers some calculations which are challenged by Bama.]

Green Cap Hit Is 6.3 Mil If Not Traded

If Green is traded before 2000 season, we save his salary (4.1 mil) but take a 3.3 hit for unearned portion of signing bonus. The net savings is about $800,000. Amp Lee was cut to save about the same amount.

If Green is kept to wear a baseball cap and carry a clipboard and "be there" in case Kurt goes down, (God forbid), and is then traded after the 2000 season begins but before the 2001 season begins, (the scenerio most fans want to see), We take a total hit of 4.1 million for his salary and pro-rated bonus in 2000, plus, in 2001, after Green is already gone, we'll take another hit of 2.2 million for his remaining unearned signing bonus.

This 2.2 million dollar additional hit comes after Green is gone and also just in time to make it almost impossible to sign Ike, Carter and Kurt to long term back loaded deals to keep them in Ram uniforms. By losing an additional 2.2 million in cap space in 2001, we'd definitely lose at least one of those three guys, maybe two of them. Do you guys still want to keep Green as a gimpy backup for 2000?

The total cap hit for keeping Green, just for the one year (2000) as a backup is 6.3 million. If you trade him before the 2000 season starts, you have a cap savings of $800,000. Plus the draft picks you get in trade for him. This is a no-brainer guys, Green will be traded for draft picks.

He should fetch value in trade. Because we've paid his signing bonus, the club getting him only takes a 2.8 million cap hit for the 2000 season, very reasonable for a QB of Green's caliber.

I expect Green will be traded after the draft this year but before the season starts for picks in 2001. That way the team trading for his rights will know he's fully recovered from the knee injury before giviing us a #1 and #3 (IMHO)

 

Bama RamFan responds:

1. Green will make 2.9 mill this year on his contract. That is it.

2. His pro-rated cap value is about 3.1 mill. That adds a little over 1 mill to his base salary as his cap number, around 4 mill.

3. Trading (or releasing) a player before 1 June forces the remaining pro-rated cap value into the current season. For Green this is 3.1 mill. But the club SAVES the actual salary for the year, 2.9 mill. So the net difference is a loss of around 300k of cap room for this year if they trade him.

4. Waiting until next year, Green's prorated cap value will be a little over 2 mill. And his salary will be a little over 3 mill. So if they trade him then they gain about 1 mill in cap room.

5. So the comparison -300 k this year, + 1 mill next year.

6. But that doesn't address the real impact of trading him this year. Sure, they will have 300k less this year (about what their 3rd rd pick will make) but they will gain ALL the 3 mill for '01, when they will really need it for Warner, Bruce and Carter. By waiting for next year, they still only gain the 1 mill in '01, probably not enough for the above.

BTW - Todd Froh probably was scheduled to make about 300k this season. Anyone see any coincidence there?

Remember, in terms of money paid out by the club, the signing bonus is gone. It is Green bank account. So anything about the bonus is merely a league generated figure right now for the purpose of salary cap. There is no way, shape or form the Rams save 800 k this year by trading Green, and he doesn't cost the club 6 mill to keep him.

You can't gain back the 2.2 mill from his signing bonus in '01. It is gone, in Greens account.

Now if you trade Green in '01, that remaining cap money gets added to the cap. But, since Green is due to make over 3 mill, plus his 1.1 mill/yr, the cap savings is around 2 mill for '01. (4.2 - 2.2 = 2.0)

You are mixing cap money and salary money and one years number with the next years numbers. It just doesn't work that way. Several people have done the math and verified it with Green's contract. What your saying just doesn't make sense.

 

lawdog replies,

Please read my posts again carefully, Bama Ram Fan. I ran this by Firecap to make sure I had it right before I posted.

I'm not talking about actual dollars to Green. Who cares about actual dollars anyway? Georgia has plenty of money to spend. She made a fortune when she moved to Saint Looie. It's cap dollars and how they are alloted to the years 2000 and 2001 if Green is kept as a backup in 2000. Even if he's traded before the 2001 season, even if he starts on the 2000 roster but is traded before the season ends we take the following cap hit:

A. In 2000, we get hit for his 2.9 salary plus one forth of his signing bonus allocated to the year 2000 (1.1 million). This adds up to 4.0 million, but others say the number is 4.1 and I'll assume they are correct. (The 2.9 and 1.1 million dollar figures are rough).

B. In addition to the 4.1 million dollar cap hit in 2000 for having Green start as the backup this year, we also take a cap hit for the remaining 2 years of the signing bonus (already in his pocket) which is 2.2 million dollars. That's because his original signing bonus was 4.4 million, and if he's traded after the 2000 season starts, we have to cough up the second half of the 4.4 million signing bonus in the year he is traded as a cap hit. Do the math. 4.1 million plus 2.2 million is 6.3 million. Huge cap hit for just one season as a backup, don't you think? Don't you think the Rams would rather have an additional 2.2 million available in cap space in 2001 with Ike and Carter coming up for renewal? I also think they'd like to have the additional $800,000 cap space now. That's a quality FA backup like Moran, money to pay towards Lyght's 4+ million tender or chump change to add to Kurt's mega-deal, if they get it done this year. Germaine is a quality young QB and capable of being the backup. I'll bet many clubs would love to have him in that role, particularly if they want to run Martz offense. Not too many guys can run it. Germaine is one of those guys. By the time preseason is done, he'll be miles ahead of where he was last season... IMHO.

No matter how you slice it, Green as a backup is not worth a 6.3 million cap hit for one year. Particularly when 2.2 million of that hit comes when we need it the most (2001) when he'll aleeady be gone.

The fact we've paid the signing bonus makes him very attractive to other teams. The guy is a stud qb and only costs another team 2.9 million against the cap for 2000. Once teams are sure his knee will hold up, we'll have lot's of offers. We may even be able to trade him to Pittsburgh or Dallas now, because, like us, they know he's gold as a qb and they know his knee will undoubtedly heal sufficently to let him play at a high level. Why wait until he's completely back and bid against the bandwaggoners. I think other teams know our cap situation as well as Armey does. Green will be traded. If not before the draft, then after, but before the 2000 season starts. We'll get value too. At least a quality #1 like the Steelers, although with the depth in this draft, their #2 and #4 might actually be better. Deep draft. Not too many elite players in the first round. A second and foerth pick will cost a whole lot less in cap space than the #8 overall as well, imho.

 

Zack Neruda comments

Something weird is going on but it goes like this:

Green's bonus is paid no matter what.

If traded this year the Rams have to count the whole accelerated bonus against the cap.

So you subtract the accelerated bonus from the actual salary.

Keep him, that is the 3 mill salary + the 1.1 one year count on the bonus = 4.1 cap figure.

That is, the 99 portion of the bonus counts against the cap anyway

If he is traded, you have to count the remaining the 2.2 against the cap...but you don't have to pay the 3 million salary. Given that logic, the Rams have 800,000 in cap room they would not have otherwise (even though Green STILL counts 3.3 against the Rams cap, ie. the accelerated bonus).

Now

I don't know the salary figure for next year. But let's assume it is again 3 million. To that, you have to add 1.1 million in cap money which counts no matter what. Right?

So again that's 4.1.

But. You trade him in 2001...then...you don't have to pay the 2.9 mill salary. (Green still counts 1.1 against the cap though...from the bonus). Now. The salary doesn't have to be paid nor does it count against the cap. But the remaining 1.1 of the bonus (the last portion) does count against the cap. So (with my figures) that's 2.9 minus 1.1 = 1.8 or so.

That's 1.8 they would have that they would not have otherwise.

Yet. If the trade him in 2000, there is no cap hit at all from Green in 2001. What they would gain from that is the 2001 salary, and no more than that.

So...if they trade him in 2000, that is 2.9 THAT DOES NOT COUNT AGAINST THE CAP ("savings" is the wrong word) for 2001 and 800,000 for 2000 that they gain.

Some of which would have to go for a back up qb who would not be as good as Green. .

Okay. So. They gain little in cap terms...have to deal with a new back up (I don't trust Germaine to back up in 2000...)

BUT maybe they go for it cause of the picks. The picks would be good.

So I am back to where I began.

The cap is no reason to trade the guy NOW cause you don't gain enough.

BUT maybe the picks ARE a good reason to trade the guy now...but has to be balanced against the injury thing.

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