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WILL IT BE TRICK OR TREAT FOR THE RAMS IN TENNESSEE?
BY D.K. COX, THE COMMISH (Oct 28)

Tennessee Titans quarterback Steve McNair, left, talks with backup quarterback Neil O'Donnell during McNair's first full practice since having back surgery Wednesday, Oct. 27, 1999 in Nashville, Tenn. If McNair is able to go through all practice sessions this week without back problems, he is expected to start Sunday against the undefeated St. Louis Rams. O'Donnell has compiled a 4-1 record since taking over for McNair after the first game of the season. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

This game is being labeled by Chris Berman as a preview to the Super Bowl-maybe he was being a bit tongue in cheek and expressing his disappointment at parity in the league.  Both teams have had their share of critics who claim that their weak early season opponents explain why there is only one loss between the two teams.  Still, whichever team wins this game will finally gain some much deserved recognition by the Chris Bermans of the world.  The Titans will gain respect for knocking off the league's last undefeated team,  and the Rams will be given credit for winning on the road against a quality opponent coming off a bye week. So a Rams win would further solidify their claim to being the # 1 team in the NFL this year.  A  loss,  and the critics will feel vindicated and tell the world the Rams were a fluke who won against lesser opponents.

* Common Opponents So Far This Year: The Rams and Titans have played four common opponents so far this season: Cincinnati, Cleveland, San Francisco and Baltimore.

The Rams routed Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Baltimore by a combined average of 25.3 points.

The Titans knocked off those three by an average of seven points, barely getting by Cincinnati (36-35) and Baltimore (14-11).

The Rams whipped the 49ers in St. Louis, 42-20.

Tennessee lost at San Francisco 24-22. 

A simplified take would have to consider this "Advantage-Rams".  BUT the Titans have proven to be a team with moxey and the ability to play up to the talent-level of their competition-which they will definitely need to do if they want to match up with the Rams and the offensive weapons they will bring to the field Sunday.

* Here are the 7 TOP  keys to this game ( # 1 being most important):

(# 7) RESPECT THE INTANGIBLES OF THIS GAME. Intangibles are a important part of every game, every weekend, with every team. Intangibles are used by the losing team to explain to their fans why they lost,  and they are taken for granted by  winning teams.  The Titans have a good number of intangibles in their favor for this game.

Here are the intangibles in this game:

(A.) The Titans will be coming off a bye week.  True, the Titans have won only  5 times out of 10 games coming off the bye week since its inception. Still, it is a valid advantage to every team.  Plus the Titans will begin their practice for the Rams game a day early this week (Tuesday).  All one has to do is consider how the Rams beat up the Jets after a bye week last year (30-10) & then beat up the Patriots following a Thursday night game break (32-18).  (On a side note, I believe the schedule makers should figure out a way to line teams off bye weeks together. Would it really be that hard?) Incidentally, I believe the Rams coaches spent some time game planning the Browns and Titans during the same week.  That was evident in the game plan employed during the Browns game. The only difference was using different players in plays that had been called throughout the beginning of the season. 
Advantage: Titans.

(B.) The game is on grass, and  in Tennessee, giving the Titans an obvious home crowd advantage at their brand spanking new Adelphia Coliseum.  Tennessee is a wonderful college football town and one would have to assume that that  will carry over to their new professional team.  Now, NFL players like playing on grass because turf fields cause injuries. I'm sure the Rams players are looking forward to this game. But I wonder how Martz feels about it.  The Rams are obviously a fast team that thrives on fast surfaces, whereas the Titans are more of a power team historically.  Another factor is that the Rams have only played one game on grass this year (Bears in pre season) and they did not fare well in that game against a workmanlike team.  The Rams practice predominantly on grass fields during the week and will not be performing at a lower level, but it will take away the advantage of turf, which makes a very fast team ...faster! 
Advantage: Titans.

(C).  Turnovers are always considered an  intangible since you can not usually count on them early in the season.  Once the season gets rolling you will see that some teams have a tendency to cause turnovers (eg. Willie Shaw's Jet defense).  The Titans have already accumulated 7 interceptions and caused 11 fumbles  (5 recovered by defense) with a + 2 turnover rate, which is a vast improvement over past years.  The Rams have intercepted 11 balls and recovered 5 fumbles for a + 5 turnover rate.  Of course,  a big reason for the Rams higher number of  interceptions is that their opponents are caught in obvious "catch-up" situations and so must pass, which makes turnovers more likely.  Also, the Titans are used to close games, which keeps them from thinking they have to take chances to win, and so keeps them from creating turnovers.   They play a ball control game with both the rushing and passing attack. 
Advantage:  Even.

(D) We know the Rams can win landslide games, but can they win a close one?  The Rams 4th quarter execution has not been challenged yet, with the closest game being a 17-10 lead against the Ravens.  The Rams, of course,  have shown the ability to get big leads quickly, outscoring their opponents 143 to 36 in the 1st half alone.  No one would be shocked if the Rams are leading this game at half...the only question would be by how much.  In comparison, the Titans have had 5 of their 6 games decided by less than 4 points.  They have managed to come from behind in all of their victories this year. All of those games were decided in the final two minutes. They lost only one on a botched 2 point conversion attempt against the 49ers.  So the Titans have proven to be a team you can not count out to early---they have outscored their opponents 56 to 26 in the 4th quarter this year.   IF this turns out to be a close game in the 4th quarter the Titans have been battled tested . (Of course the Rams could be equally effective late in a game but are still untested). 
Advantage: Titans.

Key Matchup:  Kurt Warner vs. all these Intangibles.  It will be up to Kurt to be patient and  make sure the receivers make it out of their cuts cleanly, to ignore the home field crowd, to keep control of the ball without turning it over in the air.

(# 6) THE SPECIAL TEAMS WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN THIS GAME.
The Rams have done really well returning kicks with 1 punt return for a TD and 2 kickoffs by suspended Tony Horne. 

Let's compare returns and coverage:

The Rams punt returners have averaged 13.5 per return, where as the Titans have allowed a average of only 8.7 due in large part to special teams ace Perry Phenix.  

The Rams kick returners are averaging 25.2 per return (2 long one in there), where as the Titans have allowed a average of 19.8 per return.
 
Discounting the Rams 3 Tds,  you can easily see that the Titans are very capable of holding the Rams to minimal kickoff returns.  With the coverage of guys like Perry Phenix (11 special teams tackles),  & with a punter like Craig Hentrich, the Titans will limit the Rams punt returns opportunities.  Hentrich has averaged 42.4 with a  net of 37.5 with 14 inside the 20 and only 2 touchbacks.

Maybe Frank Gansz will try some form of trickery this weekend on punt returns to give Hakim the chance to make something happen with a reverse or a fake on a reverse.

The Titans primary punt returner ---Roell Preston--- was recently waived,  and the full time duty falls to Derrick Mason.  They have averaged only 8.9 per return,  whereas the Rams have allowed 11.2 per return. 

These numbers do not reflect Rick Tuten's recent success at directional punting  (which has completely voided the opportunity for a return by the opposing team).  Tuten did a great job with this against the Browns hitting long line drives that went out of bounds after maximizing the distance of the kick.  Tuten has averaged 41.6 with a net of 34.9 while hitting 5 inside the 20 & 3 touchbacks. 

The Titans have managed to block 2 punts so far this year, so Tuten needs to be careful. 

I consider field position a very real concern in this game. The  Rams want to force the Titans to drive the long field.  The Titans kick returners have averaged less than 20 yards per return whereas the Rams have allowed a average of 25.2   (in large part because of the inconsistency of Jeff Wilkens kickoffs.  Jeff has boomed some out of the end zone and then struggled to reach the 10 on other occasions). Losing gunner Tony Horne does not help with their kick return teams. All factors considered, though, I don't believe the Titans have the players or the execution to get any big returns on kickoffs,  but they probably will not hurt themselves

On FGs Jeff Wilkens & Al Del Greco are a wash---they are both solid veterans who can hit them form anywhere.

Statistical matchups:

The Rams are 2nd in the league in punt returns. The Titans are 14th defending them.

The Rams are 14th in kickoff returns.  The Titans are 10 in covering kickoff returns.

The Titans are 14th in the league in punt returns.  The Rams are 1st against returns.

The Titans are last in the league in kickoff returns.  The Rams are 23rd defending kickoff returns.

Key Matchup: Rick Tuten vs. Craig Hentrich

(# 5) CONTROL THE CROWD WITH A EARLY LEAD & RED ZONE EXECUTION. Since the Titans have definitely learned how to win the close games, if this game is within 10 points going into the 4th quarter, the Titans would have to like their chances at home with their crowd behind them.  But the only way that will happen is if they keep the Rams from getting off to their seemingly easy leads in the 1st quarter of every game. The Rams have come out to post quick and decisive leads almost right after "The Star Spangled Banner."  They scored quickly on big plays at the beginning of the season,  and then when the Falcons and Browns doubled up the coverage and played their safeties deep, they gave them a overdose of Vitamin Marshall.  When the Rams come out and take control in the 1st quarter they force teams to abandon their game plan and play some catch up.  What this does is give the Rams the opportunity to play some overly aggressive defense.   If the Titans can force the Rams to punt on the 1st couple series, they will get the crowd behind them and force the Rams to press to make plays.  If they let the Rams make some big plays and gives Kurt Warner the short field, he will make them pay. 

In contrast to the Rams, the Titans have led in the 1st half 59 to 57 so far this year, but they  have allowed fewer than a FG's worth of average points in the 1st quarter. And the Titans got a unexpected scheduling break by gaining a extra week to game plan how to slow down the Rams fast start.

Winning the red zone battles go a long way in controlling the fans. (BTW Tennessee refers to it as their Green Zone, because they want the green light when coming through & they feel aesthetically that "red zone" makes reference to being stopped.) These two teams have experienced similar red zone success so far this year, but at a closer look you will find this:

* The Rams 70.8 % scoring is 2nd only to the Cowboys,  They  have had 24 opportunities and scored 17 TD's, 5 FG's & took a knee to end the 49ers game.  The Titans defense has been backed into their own red zone 18 times and only allowed 8 TDs & 5 FGs and turned away 5 other chances.  The Rams get the  nod here because of their phenomenal success.

* The Titans have had 19 chances and came away with 11 TDs & 6 FGs, and came away with nothing twice.  The Rams have been backed up only 12 times in 6 games (twice a game)m  allowing 4 TDs, 4 FGs & 4 missed opportunities. The Rams get the nod once again. 

If the Titans can simply keep the game within 10 points throughout this game, the crowd will stay pumped,  since they feel this team will make something happen in the 4th quarter.  On the other hand,  if the Rams get off to their early lead and score easily in the red zone, they  will silence this crowd and sap the Titans confidence.

Key Matchup:  Mike Martz vs. Jeff Fisher

(# 4) MARTZ MUST CONTINUE TO TAKE WHAT THE DEFENSE GIVES THEM. The Rams must remain patient and continue to take what ever opposing defenses give them.  Opposing defensive coordinators have tried several philosophies in trying to stop this Rams offense. First they loaded the box forcing unproven QB Warner to beat them-and  HE DID. Then they decided to double up Bruce and play a deep cover two, forcing the Rams to beat them underneath -and THEY DID.  Then they tried playing a nickel and putting their  most talented LB on Faulk and make him beat them-and HE DID.  Up next is Jeff Fisher's version of the "46" defense once employed by Buddy Ryan in his coaching days. This defense will undoubtedly put quick pressure on Kurt Warner.

The Titans have only allowed 5.7 yards per passing play this year because  they  force the quick pass and have solid tacklers in the secondary.  The Titans figure to bring the farm,  forcing Warner into quick decisions. They have been successful in doubling up their opponents go-to receiver and in getting the rush to the QB. This strategy  forces the Titans corners to play a lot of man coverage. Still, other QBs did not have the other receiver or RB options the Rams have in their passing game (after the Browns game, Roland Williams will also keep them honest). The difference is that the Rams have a number of weapons the Titans need to be concerned about. I expect to see the Rams use a  lot of motion to force the Titans into some anxious last second decisions with their coverage schemes before the snap.  Make them limit their blitz packages,  and force them to play honest and to keep a eye on every weapon the Rams have. The Rams also need to mix in some play action and misdirection plays so the Titans will have to adjust and reconsider their aggressive play. One running play we could see is the shuffle pass to Marshall in the middle of the line, which could be wide open if  the Titans rush into Warner's pocket and allow Marshall to  find a seam on the vacated side of the scrimmage line.

The Titans will give up man coverage on Holt & Hakim and occasionally Bruce.  Martz & Warner must exploit this quickly by attacking their athletic but young corners, Denard Walker and Samari Rolle.  If Warner can make the hot reads at the line of scrimmage and deliver the ball quickly to a wide out or Faulk in the flat, he will give them the opportunity to turn a 5 yard slant,  or a outlet pass to Faulk, into long TDs. If the Rams enjoy some success exploiting the Titans man coverage, the Titans will be forced in a base nickel defense which will obviously cause Martz to reconsider and adjust. 

This is where Martz will give Marshall the opportunity to get into the open field.  Once you see the Titans bring a 3rd corner into the game on 1st or 2nd downs you will see the 90 flip to Marshall, some inside hand-offs to the up man, and some delays to Marshall after a pump fake, and once again the flexible shovel toss in the middle of the line.  The Titans will most likely set a spy on Faulk, which figures to be Joe Bowden or Eddie Robinson,  depending on what side he is on. Faulk will try a find a soft crease for Warner to dump it off to him and take his chances one on one against one of these linebackers. This will then make the safeties cheat up to help with Marshall, which can open up the middle of the field deep, since the outside will be doubled up.

I think the Rams should line up 2 or 3 receivers on one side of the line and run Al Saunders well orchestrated crossing patterns,  freeing up one of the guys 10 yards or deeper down the middle.  So far we have seen Hakim exploit this for a TD against the Bengals, and Holt exploit it in  several games. (Bruce is basically all over the darn field.) Roland Williams was very successful in exploiting the middle of the field against the Browns, which is invaluable because it forces the Titans to game plan for this. 

We can also expect to see some new wrinkles in the short yardage reverses,  and I believe it's only a matter of time before someone besides Warner throws a TD-once the defense commits on an apparent wide rush one of the receivers can release and get wide open deep behind the coverage.

The Rams are 54 % successful on 3rd downs and the Titans have held their opponents to 38.8 % successful.  Normally, you would consider the results of the game to fall between these statistics, but I think this game will be on either side of those numbers.  On the one hand, if the Rams can't force the Titans to  mix their defenses and instead allow them to stay in the 46 defense throughout the afternoon, the Rams could find themselves under their season averages in 3rd down conversions, completion percentage, and average yards for a first down on 3rd downs.  On the other hand, if Martz and his high powered offense expose what the Titans give them the Rams will sustain their gaudy numbers.

It will be interesting to see how the Titans respond when Holcombe (if healthy) and Faulk go wide in motion creating a 4 receiver set.  This could get Bruce matched up on a linebacker (as in the Ravens game) or leave Holcombe totally uncovered.

Key Matchup: Warner Brothers Bruce, Holt & Hakim against the Titans island corners (Walker & Rolle).

(# 3) RUSH O'DONNELL UP THE MIDDLE  /OR/ RUSH MCNAIR WITH CONTAINMENT. Right now, it appears likely that Steve McNair will start for the Titans Sunday, but one can easily foresee a scenario where both QBs enter the game.  The Rams will need to get quick pressure on whichever QB starts the game to limit the vertical opportunities for the Titans. The Rams have been effective in getting pressure on the QB throughout the year with their four lineman and a mixture of blitzes from everyone else except McCleon on defense.

McNair can run and make something out of a broken play but he does not possess O'Donnell's accuracy.  No matter who suits it up, both QBs are very capable of leading this offense successfully and have a good command of the what offensive coordinator Les Steckel tries to do. In his only game this year, McNair completed 21 of 32 passes for 341 yards and 3 TDs.  He also added 27 yards and a TD on the ground,  and finished the game with a 119.4 rating.  Of course,  that game was against a very weak Bengals secondary  O'Donnell has completed 60.5 % of his passes for a average of 241.8 yards per game, with  8 TD's (4 Ints),  for a rating of 87.6.

With McNair in the game, Carter & Wistrom would be required to rush from wide angles, forcing the DTs to stay home and guard against McNair releasing in the middle of the field when no one is open and the play breaks down.  Grant Wistrom is very effective at sliding down the line and making the play but he needs to first get the tackle going backward to do this effectively.  Brad Hopkins plays LT for the Titans and is equally effective on the pass and the run.  On the other side of the line Kevin Carter has the strength to lock up with RT-Jon Runyon and then release and out quick him around the corner.  Carter also has the ability to push Runyon back and get inside push on him (as long as the linebacker defending that side is aware of the scheme).  The Rams linebackers will have to stay home because the Titans  mix it up a lot from different sets and like to get the defenses covering them from sideline to sideline.

If McNair struggles and O'Donnell is in the game,  I think the Rams will have to change their pass rushing techniques. If  O'Donnell is in the Rams will rush up the gut since they know he isn't much of a threat to tuck it and scoot through a soft spot in the defense.  Ray Agnew & D'Marco Farr have been solid at collapsing the pocket this year and will get in O'Donnell's passing lanes and get their hands up.  On 3rd and long situations, Charlie Clemons will blitz up the middle,  putting additional pressure on the QB before the receivers have a chance to come out of their breaks.

The Titans offer a solid offensive line to help give either QB time. Bruce Mathews has moved back to LG several weeks ago after starting the year at center.  The 18 year pro knows every trick in the book and will need some to control the under-rated Ray Agnew,  who has been as solid a DT the Rams have had in some time,  eclipsing even Bill Johnson.  Taking over the center job is 2 year player Kevin Long. This is one area the Rams should try to challenge. The other spot to challenge is at RT,  where Fred Miller sized Jon Runyon (6' 7 " 320 lbs.) will try to control Kevin Carter.  Carter has been held terribly so far this year and is not getting the calls from the officials, but Runyon's size will amplify the visual impact of a hold  (like Bob Whitfield's questionable holding penalty against the Rams).  Left tackle Brad Hopkins is a solid player.  The Rams tried to get him several years ago but he decided to stay with the Oilers.  Grant Wistrom has silenced his critics and will give Hopkins all he can handle with his combination of speed and surprising strength.  Hopkins will have to stay with him for the entire play or Grant will find a way to get to the ball.  2nd year player Benji Olsen is a bit banged up and will be going up against the "rubber band" quick D'Marco Farr. Farr has not been given the attention he deserves. He has been flashing into the backfield throughout the year.  If O'Donnell is the QB Sunday, Farr will pin back his ears, load up the jets and make Olsen look like he is playing in slow motion.  I believe when the Rams blitz it will be from the D gap behind Carter & Farr (as they have done all year).

Key Matchups: Left Side of Def.Line;  Kevin Carter vs. Jon Runyon;  & D'Marco Farr vs. Benji Olsen

(# 2) EDDIE GEORGE IS GOOD, BUT THE PASSING GAME IS BETTER. The Titans realize that they cannot afford many 3 & out (strikeouts) against the Rams. Their emphasis is on getting the ball down field to the wide outs (52 % of catches have been by wide outs this year). They are only 25th in NFL in rushing. I think the Titans will try and control the clock, but will do it with their  passing game and finding different ways to get the ball into George's hands. Looking at the numbers you will easily see that teams have passed for 195.7 yards  & rushed for only 72 yards rushing against the Rams,  & considering the Titans have only averaged 83 yards per game rushing but 250.2 a game passing the ball, I think we will see a very diversified offensive attack on Sunday. The Titans will try to keep the Rams from blitzing on 1st down by throwing some high percentage short passes to avoid long yardage and control the clock.  The Rams will have to play very good man coverage against this team instead of just loading the box if they are going to keep the ball in Warner's hands for more than 30 minutes.

Looking at the Titans offensive game plan against the Ravens who I believe have a similar defensive style & talent base as the Rams, you can draw some conclusions on 1st down plays. The Titans vs. the Ravens was a close game. It showed some interesting tendencies by the Titans.  In the Ravens game, they got off 25 1st & 10 plays. 11 of them were runs  & 14 of them were passes.  They started the game in the 1st quarter running on 1st down with little success.  They only had one rushing play that exceeded 5 yards and their average per run was 2.0 yards.  Out of their 11 rushes, 9 of them were in the middle of the field.  Conversely they completed 11 1st down passes---two of which went for their only touchdowns of the game.  They spread it around a lot,  completing passes to everyone---George, Neal, Wycheck & 3 different wide outs.

The Titans have added some things to get George the ball outside away from the congestion.  One screen went to the left side down the sideline for a long TD against the 49ers.  They have also found room for him in the middle of the field as the Rams have done with Faulk. It is the quick hitting plays out of the backfield, swing passes,  and screen plays that have really worked well for the Titans. I'm not suggesting they ignore George, but the majority of his runs come on 2nd downs instead of 1st downs. London Fletcher will be keeping an eye on Eddie and has the ideal tackling ability to handle him by exploding all 240 lbs. into George's legs.

Most sports writers predict the way to stop the Titans is to stop Eddie George and make them beat you passing the ball,  and that is only partially correct in my opinion.  Their running game is a one man show that has George getting 432 rushing yards and 648 total from scrimmage. I believe the Rams do need to be wary of Eddie George's ability to run the ball-in the past they have really struggled against the big backs---but this year no team has shown any ability to run at them with the RB.  With their offensive prowess and their underrated defense, the Rams have  done a good job of controlling the other teams RB and  not allowing any one to run the ball for more than 60 yards yet. I say play a zone line backing scheme against George with both halves of the field, rush the 4 down lineman, play man coverage out wide,  and have your safeties shade coverage as necessary.  If George is at 50 at half, than I would expect Gandhi & Bunting to pull Jenkins in to help and put some pressure on our corners to play tight man, but otherwise I would respect what Steckel has done turning the Titans into a under appreciated vertical team.

In half their games the Titans have thrown over 300 yards (in close games).  They  have a good corps of tall, fast and athletic receivers. They have found a solid duo in receivers where last years top WR in the draft Kevin Dyson has 29 receptions & the acrobatic Yancy Thigpen is 10th in conference in receiving yards.  Thigpen has good size (6-1, 203 lbs.) and can pull off the acrobatic catches that ohh and ahh the fans.  2nd year player Dyson is a future star with size (6-1, 201 lbs) who has very good NFL speed.  The 3rd receivers is Chris Sanders,  who had a solid year 2 years ago,  but has struggled since then with his slight build (188 lbs. on a 6'1" frame).  Even their 4th receiver Joey Kent  is 6'1".  Kent  has not reached his 2nd round potential yet but can still get some playing time because of  his physical skills. So far this year they have been able to get production out of Dyson, Thigpen & Wycheck but could really use a 4th option form the receivers to step up instead of having only George as the 4th option.  They need WR Chris Sanders to equal his production of several years ago.

The Rams corners match up well. They have handled some formidable wide receivers so far with a bend don't break mentality in coverage, remaining  patient while waiting for the other teams offense to break down or make a mental error.  Obviously, it has helped that they have had big leads and have played a lot of 2 deep zones.  Regardless, Todd Lyght & Dexter McCleon have the speed and cover ability to hold their own against this group.  Nickel back Taje Allen will most likely matchup with the left wide out in the nickel.  Dime back Dre' Bly has done a very good job on the slot receiver when called upon.  He plays a up tight to the line, gets a good bump,  and turns his hips better than most on inside slants. As a group, the Rams defense have not played their best games yet,  and will improve their soft coverage issues as the season wears on  and as the players gain confidence in their teammates abilities to cover each others backs. 

Pro bowl TE Frank Wycheck is the difficult matchup for the Rams. Wycheck leads all TEs in the  NFL with 25 receptions and is as good as there is. Normally the free safeties in the league play center field and the strong safety has to hang with the tight end, but that has killed the Rams the last couple of years. This year, the Rams defensive coordinators have handled tight ends in an assortment of ways.  They can be covered by Mike Jones or either safety.  Keith Lyle has the size to shade in on the TE, while Jenkins plays some center field on obvious passing situations. Mostly, Lyle has stayed with the TE on deep patterns while  Jenkins releases and pulls inside towards the soft middle at that point. One interesting note is that the only team that had good success against Wycheck was the Saints,  who could blanket him with Mark Fields all day.  The Rams don't have anyone that matches Field's amazing physical abilities,  but Wycheck can be controlled if always accounted for. 

So far this year Rams opponents have gained 71 of their 1st downs passing the ball out of 93 1st downs (76 %).  Of course the big reason is that their opponents are trying to catch up and are forced into obvious passing situations.  The Titans have converted 65 % of their first downs passing the ball themselves (getting  many of them on 1st down).  Titans are 39.2 % in converting 3rd downs and the Rams have allowed 32.1 %. On 3rd down the Titans man is clearly Eddie George, who is one of the top QBs in the league in 3rd down conversions, accounting for 15 of them for the Titans so far this year.

Note: The Rams defense came out a little flat in the Browns game, allowing them to gain more yards in the 1st half than the Rams did, even though the Rams were leading 21-3.  They settled down at the half and did not allow the Browns to get back into the game after that.

Key Matchup: Man coverage---Dexter McCleon & Todd Lyght v. Yancy Thigpen & Kevin Dyson.

(# 1) RAMS OFFENSIVE LINE NEEDS TO HOLD UP AGAINST THE "46" BLITZES. The Titans use Buddy Ryan's old 46 defense,  which revolutionized NFL defense with aggressive blitz packages. This  style of defense is predicated on using excessive blitzers in any situation by stacking one side of the line and looking for matchup weakness (like the Rams do on offense).  They will stack one side and bring the house and try to get to the QB before the receivers get into or out of their breaks. The offenses that enjoyed the most success against a 46 defense had QBs who can make quick reads and get rid of the ball quickly,  and receivers who can stretch a offense and make the big play.  Rams fans everywhere realize that their offense possess all of those qualities. To beat the 46, then, Warner will have to call upon his arena league experience.   He will need to make the quick hot reads and beat the Titans over top, throwing to a spot, while they are in man coverage out wide.  So far this year, he has shown the ability to do this and could really light up the score board quickly.  The only way he can keep do this Sunday, though,  is if the Rams offensive line effectively picks up the blitzes and gives him at least 2.5 seconds to deliver the ball. 

The battles---

* RAMS OF v. TITANS DL. Rookies LED-Jevon Kearse (3 sacks---all in one game though)  & DT John Thornton (2.5 sacks)  lead the team, and have had a good impact so far.  Free agents Jason Fisk & ex-Ram Mike D. Jones has been effective. Dre Kenny Holmes alternates with fellow # 1 pick Henry Ford,  but they will have a tough time with Orlando all day.  The Rams interior line has done a solid job so far this year and figures to be able to handle what the Titans can bring them from the interior line.  Adam Timmerman has been a huge addition to this team and really solidifies the right side,  allowing Fred Miller to focus on the wide angle rushes, since he  knows that Timmerman will handle any inside moves in his area. That is important in this game because Jevon Kearse will challenge Miller. Jevon has tremendous speed, and his long arms keep tackles from locking up on him. Miller will have to get back quick,  set up a solid base,  and have a slap fight with the Jevon, who has a wing span as wide as Fred's.

* RAMS v. TITANS BLITZES. Tennessee is very tough to block and will put tremendous pressure on the Rams line by rushing as many as 8 guys on some plays.  Watching the blitzing  will be key. Logic dictates that the Titans will load up on the Rams right side of the line staying away from Orlando.  I think they will find two areas to exploit and that is at LG & RT.  Teams have shown some success in blitzing their safety up the left side of Gruttadauria and at the LG, or bringing the LOLB up behind the DLE and shooting the gaps created by taking their DLE inside and pulling Timmerman away from Miller's weak side. The Rams will need their TE or FB to help on both of these blitzes to give Warner the time to get the ball off.  If the Rams pick up these blitzes,  the Titans will be in real trouble,  as the Rams' receivers will definitely win their match ups in man coverage.  It should be pointed out that the Titans defense has not gotten a lot of sacks but has created a lot of holding penalties, and that could play a factor in this game.

This game will also be partially determined by injuries on the Titans defense. Coach Jeff Fisher has taken advantage of the bye week by resting a good number of players instead of working them. While the list of injured players is long, Fisher feels confident that he'll have everyone back.  Fisher said. "We don't have a lot of things working -- it's an accumulation of things per player, but nothing significant that's going to keep anybody out." 

The Titans really needed the bye week to rest up their banged up defensive line.  Mike Jones has had arthroscopic knee surgery and will be limited Sunday,  giving way to under rated rookie John Thornton, who has a sore shoulder himself.  Reserve DT Joe Salave'a has a calf injury and has a problem pushing off.  DRE Kenny Holmes has a ankle injury and has recently suffered a concussion,  and Hearse himself has a multitude of problems, including shoulder, thumb & ankle problems, and other minor ailments---but he has been able to play through them so far.

Making matters worse for the Titans, their secondary is a little banged up too. Since they put so much pressure on their secondary to cover man, they need to be at full health,  but they are not.  Free safety Marcus Robertson has a hamstring injury and is not at full speed.  The Titans are much more effective with both Robertson & Bishop in the game at the same time, although backup SS Perry Phenix (ST dynamo) recorded 14 tackles against New Orleans when he was filling in,  and Anthony Dorsett is a adequate replacement in limited duty.

Key Matchups: Fred Miller vs. Jevon Kearse & the Rams TE & FB on the blitzing DBs.

CONCLUSION. This obviously shapes up as the toughest test for the Rams so far and possibly for the remainder of the regular season, not discounting divisional grudge matches. Tennessee is well-rested and has had plenty of time to prepare for the Rams' offense, but Warner is playing with so much poise and confidence that he may be unstoppable.

This will be two (30 minute) games within one (60 minute) one.  The 1st half we will see the Titans blitzing and the Rams putting the ball in the air at any time in any situation.  They will run reverses, the inside flip to Faulk,  & some screens and slants,  chilling the Titans jets,  and then in the 2nd half they will slow things down in a ball control offense attacking the middle of the field.

The Titans have surely watched tape where teams loaded the box to take Faulk out & were victimized by the Warner Brothers.  They have seen teams play a deep two coverage and leave the middle open for Faulk to run wild.  The only team that really brought pressure was the 49ers, who ran a lot of safety blitzes with McDonald up the gut that got to Warner. I think the Titans will come out & play their 46 defense & see how the offensive line holds up to the pressure. They will blitz a lot of players at one area of the line, putting quick pressure on Warner. If they are successful at doing this, I believe they will maintain the pressure throughout the game and create some turnovers.  If  the Rams pick it up long enough to get the ball out to Faulk or one of the wide outs on a slant,  they can turn it into a big play easily by   making the big run after the catch. 

The Rams will come out and score early as they have done so far this year, although maybe not as quickly, since it may take several looks by the offense to get used to the style & speed of this attacking defense. One can easily imagine Marshall, Isaac, Torry & Az catching a 10 yard pass and turning it into 60 very quickly.  As the game rolls on, the pressure will be on the Titans to stop the Rams consistently, which will be very hard for them to do.  I think the Titans will give up on their 8 man blitzes after being scorched by Warner several times for big plays on quick hitters.

Considering Dr. Z's analysis of the Warner's great release times,  I believe the Rams can exploit this defense, just as Dan Marino once did against the old Bears 46 on a Monday night game in 1985 (giving the Bears their only loss that year). In that game, the Bears left their corners vulnerable in man coverage. Looking at the present, youngsters Denard Walker & Samari Rolle can not hang in single coverage against the Rams weapons and Warner's quick throws.  The Titans will be forced into going to the nickel as their base defense, which will then allow the OL time to create rushing lanes for Faulk,  and the Rams will experience the same success  running the ball that  they did against the Falcons and Browns.

Both teams have the ability to rebound from turnovers and unless someone is a plus 2 or more, it will not play a big factor. 

The real question mark is what happens when the Titans matchup against the Rams defense. The Rams will be challenged more by an opposing offense than they have been so far this year. The Rams will not be able to keep this team under a FG in the 1st quarter as they have done with their other opponents. In fact, the Rams will be hard pressed to keep the Titans under 20 points. Al Del Greco can keep the points coming which will keep the game within striking distance. The key will be the Rams ability to keep the Titans from putting together successive long drives. If the Rams defense can force the Titans into 3rd and long yardage situations they will make the them take more chances on the early downs, which is what they had to do in the Ravens game.

PREDICTION---RAMS 31,  Titans 23

*Final Note: Just a reminder. For those of you who like to scout upcoming Rams games, you'll get the chance this weekend. Lions play the Buccaneers Sunday night on ESPN. I know my VCR will be running.