 WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO BEAT THOSE GUYS FROM THE
BAY? BY D.K. COX, THE COMMISH (10/7) |
||
| Back
to the Main Page FEATURES- The E-Zine's Quarterback Watch- -Front Office Debate- Ram-ble's Offseason Analyses Zack Neruda's FOD Analysis "E-ZINE" Fan Profiles- GRITS Ram Fan Smack Chick The HERD's home- RAMS Message Board Add yourself to The HERD's Official Roster (guestbook), if you think you are man enough! The HERD's ULTIMATE link page-add your favorite here! |
Well, here we are again,
another team, another season, and the 49ers are coming back to town, trying to keep the
Rams down. Those same guys who tagged the Rams as the SOSARs (specifically, it was
Tim McDonald who said it) stand between the Rams and league respect and recognition. The
Rams are an enigma for the NFL experts who are wondering how they could be so wrong in
their pre-season predictions and are still fighting against giving them respect. Pro
Football Weekly predicted a 2-14 season and them had them picking first in the 2000 Draft.
In week one, Paul Maguire proclaimed the Rams would have a 0-16 season (getting laughs
from his co-hosts). The Sporting News felt the Rams were a couple years away and
predicted another last place finish. It is week # 4 & the press and its experts are quick to point out that the Rams oppnents have a combined (2-10) record. We keep hearing "wait till they play the 49ers" (when the ONLY tough team the Niners played, Jax, beat the hell out of them!) The only guys who have give the Rams any respect are the ones that actually watched the games---Brian Billick, Tim Green, Brian Baldinger & Bill Walsh. Are they signs of things to come? Week # 1---Rams beat Ravens (close till 3rd, then Rams opened it up). Brian Billick says that the Rams are every bit as talented as the Vikings of '98. Week # 2---Vermeil gives the guys extra time off & feels confident it will pay off. Week # 3---Rams had already blown out the Falcons 28-0 by the time Chandler took a seat. Tim Green, who did the game, wrote in the following week's USA Today that he wants to jump on the bandwagon now because this Rams team is explosive. He doesn't care if he is late, he realized the truth from watching tapes & the actual game. Week # 4---Brian Baldinger does the Bengal game. Yesterday [Oct 6] at lunch on 101 Sports the host (who rips the Rams & says they haven't played anyone) asked who the dominant teams are this year & Baldinger says "you don't want to hear this but one is the St.Louis Rams." He said that the game he saw was as explosive a show of offensive firepower as he has seen this year. He thinks they are the team to beat in the NFC this year. Comcast Live (Philly Daily Sports talk)---guest last night, NFL Matchup's Ron Jaworski. Jaworski praises ex-coach Vermeil & say Kurt Warner is the real deal. After he broke down film he thinks that Warner is one of the top 5 QBs playing this year so far. He talked about the team & the type of players that Vermeil has assembled with the help of his talented staff, players who just LOVE to play football, & who enjoy each other immensely---just like his Old Eagles. He also believes that the Rams have more to show still. He will be surprised if the Rams do not win this weekends game rather easily. There's more. Bill Walsh says that the Rams are the team to beat this year in the NFC. He thinks that the 49ers only chance is to create turnovers & take chances. At first I assumed that that was just pre-game psyche talk, but Walsh seemed to mean it. Will the Niners be easy to bear? Not necessarily. True, this 49ers team is not the same dynasty team of the past. All is not well in Ninerland. Yet they show up this weekend sporting a 3-1 record, fresh off a big win against previously undefeated Tennessee. Jeff Garcia has had success in his first start, just as our own Kurt Warner did. So the Rams need to ignore Bill Walsh's claim that the Rams are the team to beat in the NFC, and they also need to ignore the past. They need to continue what they have have been doing in three very impressive victories. The Rams need to do to capture the imagination of every NFL fan out there is come out quickly, get the crowd behind them, pour it on long and hard, & make the Trans World Dome a feared stadium for any & all visiting teams---including the Niners. Here are the TOP 5 keys to Sunday's game, without the fluff (# 1 being most important). # 5. GET THE CROWD IN THE GAME EARLY AND KEEP THEM ON THEIR FEET: Considering the quality of the opposition, I feel getting ahead in the first half will be critical in getting the crowd fired up. This obviously means that the Rams need to take an early lead & remain competitive throughout the entire game. The last thing we need is to give a team who always finds a way to win a chance to win going into the 4th quarter. Can the Rams take charge in the first half? So far this year, the Rams have averaged 22 points in the first half. In contrast, the Niners have averaged 12 points in the first half. Also, the 49ers have yet to score a 3rd quarter point in 4 games. Since they won those games, this tells me that the 49ers are used to playing with their backs against the wall and have responded well (except for their week # 1 41-3 blowout by the Jaguars, where the 49ers had 5 turnovers). Looking closer at the Rams and Niners scoring by quarters so far this year, you will see that the Rams have a decided advantage in the 2nd & 3rd quarters, but the 49ers have done better in the 1st & 4th. (Though this is misleading because the Rams haven't needed to score at the end of the game yet this season). The 49ers have outrscored their opponents 24 to 6 in the first quarter so far this year. The Rams have also won the first quarter, scoring 17-3. The Rams need to take what the defense gives them and control the clock in the 1st half. This will obviously keep their offense on the sideline & let the Rams control the field position war. They played the same game against the Falcons with a ball control passing game, hitting slants, outs, screens, & passes across the middle, pulling the secondary in to help with the underneath stuff. They then they went over top on (2) successive plays to Holt & Bruce, both for TDs. The third play after that, Faulk ran through a seam left side for 50+ yards. Without question, this team has the weapons to take charge in the first half. Then the Rams biggest advantage comes in the 3rd quarter when they could put this game away, with the house rocking the entire time. So the formula for crowd control is simple. (1) Play the same game they have been playing---good execution, good protection, and unpredictability. (2) Take charge in the first half then put them away in the 3rd quarter. Can the Rams take the 49ers out of the game early? One wild card in this is the 49ers success--or lack of it---with the long field. This means we can't give them a short field, if at all possible. Looking over the 49ers game against the Titans, it obvious that they were not effective working on the long field. Here are their drives: * 1st drive: Started at SF 18---Gained one 1st down---Punted * 2nd drive: Started at SF 20---No 1st downs---Punted * 3rd drive: Started at SF 23---No 1st downs---Punted * 4th Drive: Started at SF 12---Four 1st downs (punted from Titans 49) * 5th Drive: Started at SF 35---Four 1st downs---TD * 6th Drive: Started at Titans 28---TD * 7th Drive: Started at SF 32---Two 1st Downs---Punted * 8th Drive: Started at SF 25---Six 1st downs----Punted * 9th Drive: Started at SF 25---Big Play by Garner 53 yard run to redzone---TD * 10th Drive: Started at SF 18----One 1st down---Punted * 11th Drive: End of game. The 49ers have not been real successful at putting together long drives, so I believe the Rams need to play for field position and avoid the temptation to take 4th down chances (a la Parcells). They can run an end round on 3rd & short, they can isolate Holcombe wide on 2 & nine, they can isolate Marshall in third & short 20 yards deep, they can throw over top on 1st & 10 around mid field. Just do not take 4th down chances & give this opportunistic team to rise up. Here's another point worth considering in the field position war. Although Tuten & Chad Stanley have comparable statistics so far this year one statistic set them apart: Stanley has punted (6) already inside the 20. This means the 49ers understand the importance of putting a lot of turf behind their defense. # 4. CONTAINMENT PASS RUSH WITH THE FOUR DOWN LINEMEN & GAP CONTROL BY LONDON FLETCHER: Giunta & Bunting need to let the defensive line go straight up against this suspect 49ers offensive line with a wide pass rush & strong gap control. The secondary needs to play for the short slant with press coverage and some bump and runs jamming them at the line (49ers average per reception has been paltry 4.8 per play). But the 49ers running attack is also a concern, so the linebackers need to show more blitzes than they actually execute. The 49ers have run a very balanced attack this year on offense. They have rushed the ball 105 times and thrown it 132, giving them a 56 % pass ratio. The Rams, conversely have a 51 % pass ratio, which is uncharacteristic of a team that has such huge leads. Who has the advantage here? The Rams have had good success in rushing 4 down lineman so far this year, but so far that has been easy with the leads they had. Still, you have to believe that the Rams match up well against this offensive line (even though they wised up and switched Derrick Deese & Jeremy Newberry on the right side of the line). Here are the match ups: * Dave Fiore is a average left tackle who has already allowed sacks from Troy Wilson, Mark Fields on a stunt, Simeon Rice, & Tony Brackens (how many has Orlando allowed ?). They also are hesitant to run at his position and have run between the tackles over 80 % of the time, and not once directly over Fiore in the Titan game. Wistrom matches up well against Fiore. After handling Jonathan Ogden & Bob Whitfield, he should be able to fight off any seal blocks and slide down the line in helping in gap control. By the way, Wistrom is getting better at mixing up his moves, but right now seems to be good at locking up with his left arm and creating a half swim move while letting his speed take him inside the block, instead of outside. This is something to consider if Steve Young ends up in the game with his natural abilities to run & throw going left. * D'Marco Farr will have the toughest assignment of the day with Ray Brown, who has been playing at a Pro Bowl level since last year. Brown may have a tough time with Farr's quickness, but should handle Zgonina well. * Chris Dalman is a solid center but has been bothered by nagging injuries this year so far. * One thing Jeremy Newberry can do well is run block, but will be tested by veteran Ray Agnew. Agnew is good for at least 2 plays every game where he controls the rush lane and makes the tackle behind the line of scrimmage. He should be able to do the same against Newberry when they run away from him. When they run straight behind Newberry it will interesting to see if Newberry can get Agnew out of the way. * Offensive line coach Bob McKittrick made a wise decision in moving the more athletic Derrick Deese out to RT, but Deese just doesn't matchup with what Carter (not many do). Carter has been bringing it every game. He is excellent at taking wide angles in a containment rush, which is very important in this game. It is likely that Jeff Garcia will be starting this game, and those who watched him last week will agree that he has good pocket awareness and finds the blocking lanes very effectively, which allows him to see down field (much like Doug Flutie). He completed a impressive 22 of 33 against a team that had to play the run as much as they had to play the pass. He is also very effective rolling to his right and making the short throw on the run, but will have trouble finding a lane to throw in with Carter coming wide. I expect to see Garcia tuck it and run under Carter's rush more than actually throw the ball. The Rams LBs will have to stay home & watch for this possibility (Garcia is a nifty scrambler). The Rams will probably show blitz more than actually do it to try and keep Garcia guessing, forcing Mike Mornhinweg to call quick hitting plays to keep Garcia in a groove. The Rams linebackers need to watch for the Niners TE & RBs coming out of the backfield. Sure they don't have Roger Craig, Tom Rathman, or Brent Jones anymore, but they still rely on these packages. Charlie Garner is as good in the open field as Faulk is, and Beasley has shown enough to take playing time away from Vardell. Clark is more of a blocker, but Chad Fann can sneak out on you if you're not careful. Keep in mind that the 49ers have ran the ball a very uncharacteristic 44 % of the time this year and have picked up the 1st down 36 % of the time running the ball (52 % passing & 12 % by penalty). These percentages are unlike past 49er teams & the Rams need to remain wary. The 49ers must come out and establish the run early against the Rams defense to set up the pass and this is huge key for this game. So that while the only way the 49ers can win this game is in the air, they cannot be one-dimensional and need to mix things up with the run, which they have obviously done so far this year. The 49ers have averaged a impressive 4.6 per rushing attempt at 120 yards per game. Phillips can get big yards if he can accelerate through a seam unscathed like he did in the Monday night game. Otherwise, he will be hard pressed to show the Rams anything that they don't already know. The problem is Charlie Garner. Garner (4.9 average per carry) has the ability to make people miss in small areas, cutback, and then accelerate quickly for long plays. He is a classic scat back who will be stopped dead an entire series and then come back and rip off a 50 yarder out of nowhere. This is why I would give him the same kind of attention Dillon received form this defense. Against Tennessee, on 1st down, the 49ers were virtually even with 13 runs and 14 passes. All but two of these runs were between the tackles (a lot like the Bengals). For example, the only big run the 49ers produced against the Titans was over LG Ray Brown for 53 yards (by Garner). The next longest run was over RG Newberry by Garcia for 6 yards. So the Niners run between the tackles almost exclusively & look for a gap that leads to a seam. This is London's territory (unless they run a stunt with Jones like they did several times against the Bengals) Fletcher has good speed on pursuit and can get in the way if he is not in position to make the tackle. If the Rams can contain the run and seal off the seams & clog the gaps with their straight up defense, the 49ers will have a difficult time trying to get the Rams out of seven coverage, giving the line a chance for several coverage sacks (because eventually their line will break down). It should also be pointed out that although the Rams have done a admirable job holding opponents to 73 yards per game running the ball at 3.5 per clip, it may be because the other teams were trying to catch up early after our offense put points on the board. This will not hold true in a close game against the 49ers. # 3. RED ZONE SCORING & TURNOVERS: I put these above the pass rush & LB play for one simple reason---the Rams are the better team and so it's the 49ers who have to take the chances in this game...BUT that could pay off huge for them if the Rams stumble First Red Zone Scoring: In the Tennessee game the 49ers had to deal with the Titans in their redzone 4 times (5 counting the 2 point try) and here's how they went: * 1st time: They had the ball at the 49ers 5. The Niners held them to a FG. * 2nd time: The Titans drove from their own 35 to the Niners 7, but were again held to a FG. * 3rd time: The Titans went from their own 20 to the Niners 13 and threw a interception. * 4th time: Titans started at own 23 & took it to the Niners 11, but settled for a FG. *5th time: On a hunch, Jim Mora Jr. played the sweep, giving Woodall a chance to tackle Eddie George short of the end zone. * Note: The Titan's TD came from the Niners 32 yard line on a wide screen to Eddie George. Looking at the cold statistics, the 49ers offense has been in the redzone 11 times, converting TDs only 54.5 % of the time (6 TDs & 2 FGs), whereas the Rams red zone defense has only allowed 2 TDs on 5 tries (with 2 FGs). That's only 40%. If you consider that several of those were meaningless scores, it looks even better! Advantage RAMS. Conversely, the Rams redzone offense has had 12 opportunities and converted 75 % them into TDs (9 TDs & 2 FGs), while the 49ers defense has allowed 50 % conversion on 10 tries for TDs (5 TDs, 4 FGs). Once again---advantage RAMS! The intangible of course is the quality of the opponents. I expect to see similar success, with the Rams decided advantage coming from the skill players and their ability to score. Second---the turnover factor. Like I said, this is huge, because the 49ers will have to gamble to win this game. Here's the stats---RAMS 2 intercepted, 4 fumbles 3 lost (2 QB) w/ Opp 4 interceptions 2 fumbles recovered. NINERS 5 intercepted, 5 fumbles lost 2 (5 in Jag game) w/ Opp. 5 intercepted, 7 fumbles 3 recovered. All I can say is that the 49ers do not have the ability to win this game if they end up with negative turnovers. The Rams CAN win with negative turnovers, but I would be worried if it went more than a minus 2 (which is already pushing the envelope). # 2. TAKE AWAY THE MIDDLE ON SLANTS WITH THE NICKEL DEFENSE. But how ? Every team the Rams have played has been successful on the 5 to 20 yard patterns across the middle and the way they are getting it done is by realizing that since the Rams best pass defender (Lyght) goes to the slot on nickel situations, Taje Allen & Dexter McCleon must play the outside (depending of the position of the slot receiver). This problem has been easily exposed by every team we have played against so far. Example---If the WR lines up outside the left tackle than as the right cornerback McCleon would take him. Otherwise Taje Allen is playing the left side. The slot receiver takes Lyght out of the hole & McCleon (or Allen) is usually playing soft coverage since it is a long down situation. The receiver runs a simple post, the ball is delivered right at the 1st down marker, though the receiver rarely makes yardage after the catch because the corner closes in behind him to make the tackle right away. I believe the Rams need to shift the defense to the slot receiver, meaning (in this example) that Lyle has to shade left to help Allen. Lyght should play the softer coverage & McCleon should go for the jam at the line (which Allen struggles with), giving the lineman a chance to put pressure on the QB. Of course this is a risky move against the 49ers tall & physical receivers. All I have to do is mention Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens & J.J. Stokes and everyone realizes the weapons these three guys have & also understands they can dictate the game. The Rams have been burned by all of these big receivers---they offer a big challenge for the Rams secondary. If the Rams don't do it, they will dink and dunk all day long (the basis of the West Coast offense). If they do make this move, it puts a lot of pressure on Charlie Clemons & Mike Jones to stay with the RB & TEs so the safeties can help with the slants. If Billy Jenkins is chasing Clark or Fann to the sideline, the middle will be open a lot during the day. More on pass defense. The 49ers have completed 55.6 % of their passes, while the Rams have allowed 49.1 %. Yet the Rams numbers are deceiving because they have defense Scott Mitchell, Chris Chandler & Tony Graziani playing catch up, along with Jeff Blake & rookie Akili Smith playing catch up also. I expect the 49ers to complete plus 50 % of their passes and maybe even 60 % depending on the game plan. They surely realize that the best defense against the Rams is to keep Warner and his brothers on the sideline. They will create easy completion opportunities for Garcia, which will really test the Rams cornerbacks. # 1. GIVE WARNER TIME IN THE POCKET. The 49ers threw the house at the Titans last week & rushed the linebackers & strong safeties, often daring O'Donnell to beat them in the air. That is interesting, since the Titans have some good solid players in WRs Kevin Dyson, Yancey Thigpen, Chris Sanders & H-back Frank Wycheck to go along with the backfield of Eddie George and Lorenzo Neal. So why did they push the pocket? Because they felt that Neil O'Donnell couldn't exploit their secondary quick enough to compeansate. They realized if you give him time & allow his receivers to run their routes, O'Donnell is one of the more accurate passers in the NFL. So they blitzed him relentlessly. Will they do this against the Rams? This is the key question waiting to be answered. The Rams offenisve line has impressed everyone so far, although they did struggle on some of the 3-4 zone blitzes the Bengals threw at them. Warner adjusted wonderfully,but he was also facing a secondary that was worse than the 49ers. Still, if it wasn't for the score, the Bengals would have created much more pressure on Warner, and possibly forced some errors. The 49ers DTs will just pin back their ears & create an inside rush when they need to pressure a QB, which will most likely be their initial plan against Warner. The Rams new offensive line matches up pretty well against this front. If Bryant Young starts in the place of Brenson Buckner, most people feel this will be a area of concern. In years past it definitely would have been, but Adam Timmerman has done very well against Young inthe past & apparently is to Young what TE David Hill was to Lawrence Taylor (Hill was Superman's kryptonite). Pace has been very solid this year & should to do well against Gabe Wilkins. Fred Miller will have a long day with veteran Marvin Washington, but defintiely has the physical skills to handle him. So if the Rams play them straight up they will blitz, but the problem for the 49ers would come from putting their poor secondary in man on man coverages. The 49ers have Darnell Walker 5'-8" (hamstring problems) & Mark McMillan 5'-8" (susceptible to big play) manning the cornerback spots. Tim McDonald & Zack Bronson (quick - hard hitter) are better than average, although Bronson doesn't have the big play ability or experience of the departed Merton Hanks. So it's up to Warner & the offensive line to show the 49ers that they will get burnt if they blitz a lot. There's more to say about this. Let's take a quick look at some pertinent statistics to compare the Rams passing offense against the Niners pass defense: *The Rams have averaged 295.1 yards per game & is ranked 4th in the league. Their competition wasn't so bad. OPPOSING TEAMS PASS DEFENSES (in order): Atlanta Falcons---180.0 yards per game allowed, ranked 8th. Baltimore Ravens---185.0 yards per game allowed, ranked 10th. Cincinnati Bengals---258.0 yards per game allowed, ranked 27th. *The 49ers have allowed 239.0 yards per game & are ranked 23rd in the league. Here's the comparisons. OPPOSING TEAMS PASS OFFENSES (in order): Tennessee Titans---293.0 yards per game, ranked 5th. Jacksonville Jaguars---189.8 yards per game, ranked 20th. Arizona Cardinals---168.0 yards per game ranked 25th. New Orleans Saints ---154.3 yards per game, ranked 27th. What do all these stats tell us? Well it tells me that the experts who think the Rams have played easier teams haven't broken down the Rams offensive match ups and weighed them against the 49ers pass defense. The Rams offense has faced opposing defenses who have averaged 207 passing yards per game allowed and averaged themselves 295.1 yards passing per game. The 49ers defense has faced opposing offenses which have averaged 201 yards passing per game and yet have allowed 239.0 per game. In short, the Rams have faced far better pass defenses than the 49ers so far & the 49ers have not faced anyone that equals the the Ram's offense. This is a big edge for the Rams, who will force the 49ers to gamble on defense (for example they may have to drop LBs into coverage and so leaving Marshall Faulk with space to work with underneath). CONCLUSION: If both teams play to their abilities, if both teams avoid the costly turnovers, if both teams avoid a major injury, & if both teams get fair calls by the officials....I see the Rams finally gaining the respect of the league and finally being talked about as a team to be reckoned with for the remainder of this season. Frankly, the Rams are the better team in this 1999-2000 season--- regardless whether it is Steve Young or Jeff Garcia quarterbacking the 49ers, or whether it is Trent Green or Kurt Warner quarterbacking the Rams. Admittedly, the 49ers roster still has enough talent to win on any given weekend, but the days of complete 49ers intimidation are over. Now they have to outplay teams with better talent, like the Rams. The 49ers are not the same team that accumulated 6,801 total yards last year (breaking their own team record in a year second only to that of the Dan Marino led Dolphins of 84). The old 49er vets were praising the Rams greatly all week before ...head games all the way. I don't buy it---sure they realize this is not the SOSARs. But don't think for a second that they don't expect to turn the clock to midnight on this year's Cinderella team. But redemption and recognition are straight ahead for the Rams and their fans this Sunday. FINAL SCORE: RAMS 31, 49ers 17 Past Predictions: Beat Ravens 27-13, actual was 27-10 Beat Falcons 23-13, actual was 35-7 Beat Bengals 30-14, actual was 38-10 |
|