 RAMS LOOKING PAST THE BROWNS? BY DK COX (Oct
22) |
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The NFL's most impressive
team is locking horns with the NFL's least impressive this week at the TransWorld Dome.
The Browns are a young team with 17 rookies or 1st year players. They do not have the
talent to overcome many errors. The Rams own an impressive roll call of league
statistics that are exactly the converse of the Browns stats. By all accounts, this game
should be over by the early 3rd quarter. The Rams are seemingly solid in every aspect of the game, being in the top 5 on offense, defense & special teams. But the national media would like to add some asterisks to those figures, claiming the weakness of their schedule, but anyone who has actually *watched* the games knows otherwise. It seems the Rams are in a no win situation for recognition by the media---if that was important to them or their fans. The played very formidable defenses in Baltimore and Atlanta but the experts would merely look at win-loss records. They said, "What till see how they do against the 49ers." The Rams handled them easily & followed that up with a road trip to Atlanta to win easily again. Of course, the media explanation then became injuries to Steve Young and Jamal Anderson. Now they play the winless expansion Cleveland Browns at home and are expected to win easily with a line of 19 points as favorites. If the Rams lose this game, than they are back to being the S.O.S.A.R.'s---and if they win...they should have. Experts will point out that a truer test will be the following week against a well rested (2 weeks off) 5-1 Tennessee Titans, who managed to beat Jacksonville on the road this year. The Titans will be ready for them, the experts say, & will put the Rams feet firmly back on the ground. Of course if the Rams win and McNair is the QB they will say he was rusty & if the Rams win against Neil O'Donell they will say they didn't face the best the Titans had to offer. What to do? I subscribe to the philosophy of "Who Cares." Who cares what the so-called experts think? They haven't even seen the Rams yet outside of Berman's ESPN show. So will the Rams look past the Browns? I answer with a resounding NO. I believe the Rams will show up & play a game of few surprises (as in none) but one big on execution. I believe Mike Martz will have some new looks for the Titans and will allow the Browns game to be decided by the talent on this team simply out-performing and out-executing this Browns team. The game will revolve around two basic stories: 1)No one wants to be the 1st to lose to the expansion Browns, and 2) Everyone wants to be the 1st to beat the Cinderella Rams. BROWNS OFFENSIVE GAME PLAN: Chris Palmer is known for his vertical offense, yet when you watch the game Sunday you will wonder why. You will see a lot of very short patterns, some stacked skill players on one side of line & some misdirection stuff, but you won't see a lot of vertical pass routes. Palmer has simplified the pass routes to give Couch the opportunity to grow confident through each completion. Looking over the Browns play calling on 1st & 10 you can see what Palmer is trying to do, which is offer some positive yardage on 1st down to avoid any 2nd or 3rd and long situations where defenses can become more aggressive. In the 1st quarter last week, they ran every time on 1st down & ran 6 out of 9 chances in the 2nd quarter. The 3 passes they did throw were all very short patterns. They also had Couch in the shotgun 13 times throughout the game, giving him the chance to be in position quicker once the defenses started getting to him. Of those 13 plays from the shotgun, they still ran the ball 5 times, preventing defenses from blitzing. The Browns ran the majority of their plays up the middle, next behind the RT, and very rarely out wide. Seemingly, they run only in an attempt in keeping the defenses honest, but offer no real effort to sustain a drive by the ground. They run to set up the pass. The Browns haven't seen much of the red-zone offense in their 1st 6 games so far. There were only 7 possibilities. They scored 4 TD's & 2 FG's for a TD % of 57.1 %. Think about that for a moment and consider how poor a offense has to be to have only 7 red zone opportunities in 6 complete games. To me this tells the whole story loud & clear. No one should be questioning Palmer's play calling, and their intensity level is fine. They are just not executing. They have led at the half 3 games in a row only to be outscored 37-3 in the 2nd half (that is only 1 field goal in 6 periods). Browns are averaging only 11 1st downs per game. Browns 3rd down efficiency is 22.2 % (whereas the Rams other opponents have been 32.8 % efficient on 3rd downs.) But that 22.2 % average is a bit misleading. The Browns have vastly improved over the course of the season since their debacle game # 1 when they played the Steelers. So while they entered last week's game with a horrendous 15.5 % 3rd down conversion rate, they managed 50 % against Jacksononville's top ranked defense. The reasons for this success is clearly the shortened passing attack and the incorporation of 6 different receivers into the passing game. Kevin Johnson is obviously their # 1 threat, and fellow rookie Darrin Chiaverini led them last weak with 5 receptions. But the new simplified offense has given Couch the opportunity to hit 6 different receivers last week where only 2 guys caught the ball against the Titans, Ravens & Steelers. Last week they mixed it up real well hitting a wide out 9 times, backfield 6 times and the TE 3 times. This is solid distribution of the ball and forces defenses to play straight up without cheating to anyone person. The Browns direction is obvious & the Rams should expect diversity & quick hitting plays and only occasional deep "keeping them honest" pass routes. Despite their record of second half collapses, however, last week's game against the Jaguars left everyone with glimpses of future promise. Couch looked comfortable, they were converting 3rd downs, & they sustained drives---all against the # 1 defense in the league. To make good on their promise as a team, the Browns need to start a drive right away, avoid penalties, and stay on schedule, all of which is vital to this young team's success. Once they get things clicking they can mix it up & create matchup problems with their schemes. I have a good friend who is a lifetime Browns fan and he gave me last weeks tape of the Browns game. It seemed to me on occasion the Browns resembled the Rams and Mike Martz spread offense, which utilizes a lot of motion. They brought a receiver in motion, faked an inside hand-off to him, then threw a quick out. This deception is fun for a young team, and Palmer should continue this type of play calling throughout the year, since it is fun for the team and entertaining for the fans. They also ran a couple of plays with an empty backfield and the wide outs, backs & tight ends all lined up as receivers. Couch was 4 for 4 from this set. On several other occasions, Palmer used a formation that had the FB & WR stacked on the left side with the TE & other WR stacked right and then called wide out screens and a hand-off out of these formations. It will be interesting to see how the Rams respond to these formations in coverage. It is possible that the Rams defense will find themselves in the same kinds of mismatches the Rams offense has been able to exploit against their opponents so far this year. For example, I can see a situation with with someone ike Chiaverini going in motion in the slot, forcing Jones into coverage. BROWNS DEFENSIVE GAME PLAN: The Browns have allowed 53.8 % redzone TD scoring, or 14 TD's in 26 opportunities. Considering the Rams success rate of 73.7 % , one has to think that even the Rams conservative approach will still result in TDs. The Browns have allowed 142 1st downs in only 6 games, and opponents have converted 3rd downs 49 % of the time. They also have allowed 400 yards per game, with the opposing QB completing 67.4 % of their attempts. They have been on the field for an average of over 38 minutes per game. Still, it should be noted that they really improved from Game # 1, when the Steelers held the ball for an amazing 47:49 minutes, getting 247 yards passing and 212 yards rushing. In comparison, in last week's game, the Jaguars held the ball for 32:29, getting 222 yards passing and 103 yards rushing. There is no doubt that the Browns defense will be on the field for most of this game & will have to continually mix things up & take chances & create some turnovers to keep the fans out of the game. They will play a bend don't break mentality on long yardage situations and take their chances on short yardage downs. This will force the Rams to have long drawn out drives where anything can happen. That is really all the Browns have to look forward to---the unexpected. The Browns employ a unique strategy called a UFO defense, which just amounts to disguising what they are playing prior to the snap of the ball. They will wait until the Rams set up before they completely break huddle and will at times set 7 guys in a two point stance, disguising who will be in coverage and who will rush the passer. McNiel has to try and handle Isaac with ex-Viking cornerback Corey Fuller shadowing him in double coverage. Rookies Torry Holt & Daylon McCutcheon expect to match up with each other throughout the day. Nickel back-Raymond Jackson will have the duty of covering the slot receiver, who could be Isaac or Marshall. It would appear that Holt has the edge in this matchup and needs a solid game to get his confidence level up to the rest of the team at this point, especially considering today's groin injury suffered by Hakim in practice. (Torry comes from a NC State where he was the # 1 weapon regardless how the defenses played them---ask Florida State). The print media feels as if rookie Rahim Abdullah will have the job of chasing the much more athletic Faulk, but I doubt this for several reasons. I believe that the Browns realize the Rams will play conservative & hope to win the game by keeping the clock running behind the ball control offense of Marshall Faulk & Robert Holcombe. The only advantage of the UFO defense is tofind matchup advantages in the rushing lanes, not coverage (they are often they are a step behind in coverage). They have really loaded the box trying to stop teams from running & must realize they can't do this against the Rams. I believe the Browns may employ a zone spy on Faulk. So I say LB Wali Reiner will be responsible for tracking him and shooting the gaps on rushing plays. Abdullah will worry about the underneath stuff & Marquez Pope will handle the deep sideline or middle patterns against Marshall. This will create soft areas in the zone that Warner will exploit. The Browns defensive line will have problems getting pressure up the middle but can run stunts out of the UFO defense on obvious passing situations to get to Warner from different angles. They have a solid bunch of veterans on the defensive line but nothing the Rams can't handle. It has been well documented that Roy Barker had 4 sacks against the Rams last year, but that was against Wayne Gandy & Barker wore the 49ers colors at the time. Derrick Alexander is the next in line to get a close glimpse of the NFL's new # 1 left tackle. Timmerman, Gruttaduaria & McCollum should have little problem handling starters Darrius Holland or John Jurkovic or the rest of the DT rotation. The Browns surely realize they can only take so many weapons away from this Rams offense, & the # 1 guy defenses will be covering this year will be Isaac, with Marshall a close # 2. Holt will have to do it on his own straight up against the solid cover corners in the NFL. If the Rams stick to their straight up gaime plan, Hakim or Proehl will most likley have the nickel back to beat. This leaves the TE & FB free to become a big part of the game plan this Sunday. . RAMS DEFENSIVE GAME PLAN: The Rams have faced opponents in their own redzone only 11 times so far in 5 games and held them to only 4 D's at a 36.4 % clip. The Rams need to make sure that Kevin Johnson is covered well & keep an eye on Darrin Chiavreini, who led them last week in the dink & dunk passing game. The Rams corners can match up with this passing game deep and underneath and will really challenge Couch to make his reads very quickly. I believe they will be bumping Johnson off the line & allowing Keith Lyle to shade his way for some deep coverage. Terry Kirby is a very good receiver out of the backfield and must be watched, but should be handled by Mike Jones throughout the afternoon. Newly acquired Karim Abdul Jabbar figures to get some carries but won't be very involved in the offense at this point. Couch enjoyed success last week with a reduced quick 3 step drop & some shotgun stuff, releasing the ball on quick timing patterns underneath. This has been one of the Rams few weaknesses so far, but if they can get pressure on Couch, they can throw off his timing. This defensive line has the ability to do this, but one should not forget that the Cleveland put its big money in their offensive line this year. Tackles Lomas Brown and Orlando Brown are both former Pro Bowlers. LG Jim Pyne was the # 1 pick in the expansion draft & ex-Patriot Dave Wohlabaugh is in the middle. Although Scott Rehberg is mammoth at RG, he has really struggled this year, and figures to be the victim of stunts by the Rams very fast & athletic defensive line. Reports indicate that the Rams will stack the line from the center to the RT. They will run stunts between Agnew & Carter, with Farr tying up Wohlabaugh, allowing Carter to go one on one with Rehberg. Todd Collins will help out Grant Wistrom with his rush containment on the other side & London will get the job of flowing with the play instead of spying on a RB this week. All of thiis should be enough to get pressure on Couch, although we will probably see Mike Jones shooting the gap, forcing Rehberg to decide between him & Carter and making the Browns leave Marc Edwards in the backfield to help or to pull back Irv Smith. This gameplan should greatly hinder the Brown's ability to stack one side of the line and so take away quick slants and the underneath game. I am anxious to see more of the defensive line rotations in this game. Nate Hobgood-Chittck has been getting a lot of playing time at Gaylon Hyder's expense, and speaking for myself, I like what I've seen. He gets a very good push off the line and manages to get in the way of the rushing lanes, allowing the rest of the D-line to slide the O-line for containment. I also am surprised by Troy Pelshak. He has some push and use angles well when he is in as a late substitution. Knowing Vermeil he is likely to get some other guys active for this game to get them some playing time, I would like to get a glimpse of Lionel Barnes at right DE I would also like to see Dre'Bly and Rich Coady get the chance to play an entire series if the Rams can get the game under control by the 4th quarter. The Rams have stayed relatively healthy so far this year and I believe the late game substitutions have really helped maintain the health and freshness of the starters. RAMS OFFENSIVE GAME PLAN: The Rams should be effective against this defense regardless of the status of Amp Lee, Az Zahir Hakim and Tom Nutten. The Rams redzone offense has had 19 opportunities and scored TD's 73.7 % of the time, which NOW ranks # 1 in league I believe. Rams are averaging almost 20 1st downs per game with 57 % of them by passing. Rams 3rd down efficiency is 55.6 % compared to the Browns opponents being successful 49 % of the time. These are some imposing numbers. As I mentioned before, the Rams are expected to play the same plays, formations & motions as they have already shown in their first 5 games. They will work on better execution and on fine-tuning this high powered offense. This team has plenty of options, but will need to master several of them so they will have some bread-and-butter plays as the competition stiffens. This game offers a wonderful opportunity to do this in a live game day situation instead of practice only. Many of you will recall the style of play calling in the last pre-season exhibition games. In every game they came out with the # 1 unit easily outplaying the other team # 1 defense & gaining valuable timing and confidence. That is what we can expect form this game. Kurt Warner will continue to take what the defense gives him and will offer him yet more opportunities to adjust at the line of scrimmage, something he has done well so far this year. Using the UFO defense, the Browns defense will try to exploit weakness in match ups, so Kurt will be expected to make his reads and adjustments under center instead of while walking up to the line as most QBs do. Everyone has confidence that Kurt can do this effectively, so the only question to answer is what part of the Rams offense will the Browns take out of the game. I believe since the Rams realize that Browns are outmatched and know it, that leaves them no choice but to try to take away the most dangerous weapons. I believe the Rams will come out trying to establish the run and as long as it is successful they will stick with it except on long down situations. I do not expect to see them to go for the jugular on 3rd & 1 like they have in the first 3 games. If the Browns effectively clog the gaps and force the Rams to put the ball in the air, that is when the fireworks will start. Once they are forced to throw the ball, it will then open up the running game, and they will surely start grinding it again until it is stopped, and then the cycle will start all over again. I am as excited about the production of this offensive line as I am about the passing game. The most interesting matchup will be Fred Miller over Roy Barker. Barker has had some solid games over the last two years and really made a name for himself since leaving the Vikings. Fred has both dominated & struggled at different times, and can be categorized as effective but sometimes inconsistent. I can't see Derrick Alexander challenging Orlando much. He has really looked brutal out there attacking pass rushers. One of the Rams most pleasant surprises last week was Andy McCollum's ability to pull out, go to the right side of the line, and shoot through the hole to take out whatever LB or safety is in his way. I'm no coach but I haven't seen that from Nutten in any game & love what I saw from McCollum in the Atlanta game. I believe if Nutten continues to have these back spasm problems this is one of the few starting positions that could change by season end (the other would be if Ernie comes back to be his old self). Roland Williams has seen only sporadic opportunities to get involved in the offense. Even Robert Holcombe has offered more consistency in the passing game than Roland has. But this game offers a very good opportunity to get Roland involved, since the defense will focus on everyone else and leave him unchallenged. Considering how much he has struggled in run blocking, Roland better make some plays, or we will be seeing much more of Jeff Robinson and Chad Lewis. Speaking of Chad Lewis, this game also offers the Rams the chance to get him matched up against a Wali Reiner or Marquez Pope---he has some physical advantages against both these guys. He can separate from Reiner & he is much taller than Pope. SPECIAL TEAMS: Even without Tony Horne, the Rams special teams are # 1 in the NFL and that is not accomplished by one player. Ron Carpenter will handle the kick off duties & handle the gunner position on returns. Newly signed Chris Thomas won't be activated for this game. The Browns should be getting pretty good at punt return coverage, considering how many times they punt. But you give Az Zahir Hakim too many chances and he will break another one sooner or later. Phil Dawson needs much more time to catch up to the likes of Jeff Wilkens but will battle you tough. Like Wilkens, he is not afraid to make the tackle on the kickoff, even though he doesn't get much practice at it. Chris Gardokci is every bit the punter that Tuten is & figures to keep the Rams traveling the long field. PREDICTION: So far (5-0) the Commish has remain unblemished as the"BOYZ IN THE HORNZ" have. This week I see a game very similar to those they have played so far. The Rams bad history in the 90's, & the press's lack of respect, and---most importantly---the fans at the Trans World Dome, will all keep this team focused on their goals. Expect to see Paul Justin playing maybe in the 3rd & assuredly in the 4th quarter & maybe even see a drive or two by Joe Germaine before the final whistle blows. The Rams have just shown too darn much & the Browns have shown that they are a true expansion team. The talent separation is just too large for the Browns to overcome. I believe the Rams can win this game even if they are minus-4 on turnovers. This game will not be exciting and get only minimal play on the ESPN NFL game day show, but the only important highlight will be the game recap showing the Rams with another win as they build on their cushy 3 game lead on the # 2 team in the NFC West. RAMS 40 Browns 9 D.K. Cox, The Commish |
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