3zine.jpg (21333 bytes)WEEK ONE PREDICTIONS-
by FOOTBALL NAZI (Sept 7)
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Great, time to talk about week # 1.

warner_sm.jpg (18407 bytes)
Will the pressure of controling this franchise's destiny get to Warner on Sunday vs. the Ravens?

Living & working in Lancaster, PA,  right smack dab in the middle of Philly & Baltimore I believe I have a close feel for the games against Ravens (Week #1) & Eagles (week # 17) this year. I don't consider myself a expert nor am I a novice (somewhere in between, closer to novice),  but would like to offer these thoughts as keys to this Sundays game against the revamped Ravens and what I believe we can expect to see.

OFFENSE v. DEFENSE: This is the area of much ambiguity.  Defensive Coordinator, Marvin Lewis is the only guy back from last years staff & has a very fast defense to put on the field. The Ravens play a gap control unit that likes to pressure the QB with a wide variety of blitzes. The always have McCrary & Boulware flying of the corners and Ray Lewis exploiting the gaps created by interior lineman.

They lost the QB of the defensive line in James Jones & hope that Larry Webster can fill the void. There is not real durable with every member having a history of knee injuries. They have little depth.  I expect the Rams to be able to open up gaps so the key  here lies with Holcombe, Harris & Roland Williams and their the ability to get in Ray Lewis's way.

The  Ravens  defensive line will have these (2) tasks to accomplish; (1) control the gaps & (2) occupy the blocks so the LBs can make a play on the ball. This is where I am most concerned, because they have a wonderful collection of linebackers in Lewis, Boulware & Jamie Sharper.  My biggest worry is Ray Lewis.  This guy is unbelievable & can control a game the way Junior Seau can.  This guy will be all over the middle and often on our side of the line of scrimmage. Know where Ray Lewis is all the time & avoid him.  Add in very good run support from Kim Herring  (a Billy Jenkins clone) and running will be tough for Marshall & Co.

If they  can not establish a running game early, Warner could be in for a long day trying to read the Ravens very aggressive blitz schemes, which is compounded with Rod Woodson at FS, since he has the athletic ability & experience to exasperate Warner with confusing looks. Since Martz will probably be in the booth, I wish Trent was on the sideline with Kurt in between offensive series. Our opportunity is in our passing game to limit their blitz schemes. If Isaac plays like he has been this off-season & Holt, Hakim & Proehl exploit areas in the defense, we could get them to play  back and so limiting the pressure on Warner.

With McAlister playing nickel, I believe we can  exploit underrated Duane Starks & overrated DeRon Jenkins. A good sign is us passing for 1st downs on the 1st 2 or 3 series, which would indicate the Ravens have to respect the short stuff & open up underneath opportunities for Marshall.

I for  one don't think Warner will be rattled too much, especially with a  safety valve like Faulk who will be hanging outside just in case.  Also remember we are now employing a quick strike timing pattern type offense (a  la Zampese), which will limit the blitzing by the defense.  If we can get the ball behind Lewis to Bruce, Holt & Hakim we can open up the short stuff underneath for Faulk.  If Warner is inaccurate, than they will make us beat them with his arm, if he can.

It's all up to Warner. WR's & Marshall will find the soft parts of the defense & if Warner can get it to them to make plays after the catch we should easily be in the red zone at least 4 to 5 times in my opinion. I also expect Roland Williams to see some good looks with Herring covering him, as long as he catches the ones that hit him in the numbers. Rams can anywhere from 3 to 34 points against this defense depending on Warner (who I believe will have a solid, workmanlike, unexciting, but effective game). My gut feeling is 20 points from the offense

DEFENSE v. OFFENSE:  The defense will surprise everyone.  Now it's time to let it all out.

The Rams have  all kind of question marks on the defensive line & right cornerback & yet the Ravens have questions around their ability to exploit these Ram weaknesses.

The Ravens will go only as far as Mitchell can take them. Mitchell has the arm to deliver, just doesn't have the knowledge, quick thinking, intestinal fortitude or scrambling abilities to make it happen. He does on the other hand have QB ace Matt Cavanaugh keeping his head on straight, which is no small task.

Lucky for them we have little opportunities to pressure the QB except for Kevin Carter against Harry Swayne (who replaces Orlando Brown). We win here hands down

The inconsistent & heartless Mitchell will grow frustrated with the Raven receivers early.  He has very speedy, but inconsistent receivers in Jermaine Lewis, Qadry Ismail & Patrick Johnson with only possession skills coming from surprising rookie Brandon Stockley who doesn't expect to see much more than Billicks (3 receiver sets) on 3rd and long. Ismail doesn't worry me, Jermaine Lewis still has to prove it, & Turner was let go.  We need to keep an eye on Stockley though, this kid is a player.  Still I see Keith Lyle suckering Mitchell into a false sense of security and giving us at least one easy pick.

Their TE's dont worry me much, so we should be OK at SS, with  Jenkins supporting the run.  The loss of Eric Green will hurt their ability to keep the defense honest underneath. Aaron Pierce & Lovet Purnell doesn't offer Mike Jones much in tough coverage responsibilities & think even Billy Jenkins can cover these guys.

Priest Holmes & Chuck Evans are both solid, but I believe Fletcher will have a big game with 10 + tackles easy.  Their biggest weapon on offense is the line with Ogden at LT playing over Wistrom.  It could be a long day over there and I hope Ray is back to run stunts against the mammoth tackle.  Otherwise, Fletcher will be shooting gaps to the right side of defense all day.  I can't see Grant doing much against Jonathan Ogden and am genuinely concerned about them running over top of him all day long with Holmes. Keep in mind that Chuck Evans is very effective running off guard on delays and hope that London stays home & fills the gaps that their line will be able to create.

Fortunately for us they have a very suspect interior line. Jeff Mitchell replace Wally Williams & brawler but immobile guards Jeff Blackshear & James Atkins cannot pull to save themselves & are strictly bull blockers. Maybe we should sign recently cut Jon Kirksey o play sitting bull and clog up the middle on  his presence alone (or get Big Willie to clog a hole or two). Seriously, this is a matchup of two weak links on these teams & should cancel themselves out in ineffectiveness. I believe we can shut this unit down for 10 points but will conservatively give them 17, and they will give us one back.

SPECIAL TEAMS: The Ravens always do well on ST, but both units are inconsistent in punting, solid but unspectacular at kicking & also have weapons in the return game.  They  released Metcalf & Broussard & have Jermaine Lewis returning (which could be dangerous.) All in all, I see these as a  wash for this game. Sure, Lewis or Hakim could blow the game open a bit with a return, but never count on the unexpected.

THE GAME: I think both teams will try for the big play on the 1st series to try and put their opponents on the heals early. I like our chances in this game of roulette myself with Bruce, Holt & Hakim offering the fireworks .All told,  I believe the Rams will rock the TransWorld Dome & come out strong for once & take a 2 TD lead by halftime & calm down a bit. When  said & done & Isaac will be the hero of the day because Starks & Jenkins cannot stay with him & Woodson & Herring will have to play honest with Holt & Hakim roaming the outfield & Williams sneaking in the vacated spaces & Faulk looking to exploit the outside of the field. 

Damm, let's get to the weekend already.

FINAL SCORE: Rams 27,  Ravens 14

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