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TOP TEN KEYS TO THE BENGALS GAME
BY D.K. COX THE COMMISH
(Sept. 29)

St. Louis Rams quarterback Kurt Warner pumps his fist to the fans after his team beat the Atlanta Falcons 35-7 Sunday, Sept. 26, 1999 at the Trans World Dome in St. Louis. Warner threw for three touchdowns and ran for a fourth.(AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

The Rams first two games have shown the same promise that we saw a glimpse of in the pre-season  with the Rams 1st string units under Trent Green. Kurt Warner has been the toast of the town taking over for Green.  The Rams next game will be their first on the road against a 0-3 Bengals team that is better than advertised in my opinion. 

Well,  I just spent more time than my wife would like to admit analysing the Cincinnatti game. There are many interesting story lines in this game. I hope none of  you is looking past this game, because it will be entertaining to watch on many levels. How  will the Rams do against a big bruising back? How they will pick up the 3-4 zone blitzing schemes (the only 3-4 they face this year)? How Warner will react to guys flying up the middle through gaps created by having to pick up rushers and stunts. How will they handle Blake's long ball?

Here is a look at what I believe we can expect to see this weekend. I put it in "Letterman Top 10" form (# 1 is THE  key of the game).

# 10. Control the Time of possession: (attn.: Rams offense & defense).  The Bengals have registered 58 1st downs while their opponents have only registered 49 against their defense.  That is a surprising statistic for a team that is 0-3 and has been outscored 97 to 45 in just 3 games.  They have out rushed their opponents by 71 total yards.  They have only been out gained by only 70 yards total offense.  They have gained an impressive 38 % of their first downs running the ball.  They have also been terribly behind at the half (67 to 28). Being behind doesn't normally lend itself to such solid time of possession and rushing numbers, since they were obviously forced to play catch up.  The most obvious reason for this disparity is that they are effective running the ball keeping the other team's offenses off the field.  In their last game, they came out and held the ball for 14 plays on their first possession and chewed off 7:36 of the clock until Dillon pushed it in from 1 yard out. 

But the Rams have also been extremely effective controlling the clock.  Last week the took the game's opening  kickoff and held the ball for over a amazing 10 minutes on one drive before scoring.  On that drive, the Rams converted 6 3rd down plays (including the TD by Holcombe).  The Rams have gained 17 more 1st downs than their opponents,  who have average less than 13 per game against them. They have also outgained their opponents by 329 yards while allowing a only 456 total yards in two games.  Once Bruce Coslet looks at the Rams last two game films, he will quickly figure out the best defense against this Rams squad is to keep them on the sideline.  We can expect them to give us a heavy dose of Dillon & many high percentage passes between the sidelines (keeping the clock moving) with an occasional "keeping you honest" pass over the top to Darnay Scott or Carl Pickens. 

The Bengals held the ball for 36:45 against the Titans & 37:34 against the Panthers.  They only had the ball for 21:30 against the Chargers (largely because of  5 turnovers & because of losing Jeff Blake with an injury). The Bengals have managed to gain 9 more first downs than their opponents despite scoring 52 fewer points. They DO have the ability to keep the Rams exciting offense on the sidelines.

# 9. Do not lose focus on the potential explosiveness of the Bengals passing game: (attn: Rams defense). So far this season, the Bengals passing game hasn't meet its potential.  They have averaged only 188 yards per game at 4.8 per completion.  This is not normal for a Bruce Coslet & Ken Anderson run offense.  Mike Martz has nothing on these two when it comes to utilizing multiple formations, spreading  the field,  and putting players in motion (sound familiar ?).  They will also play 2 TE & 4 WR sets, which will keep the corners honest & keep Jenkins busy chasing Tony McGee around. They will occasionally take their chances deep, but their real plan is to be a ball control offense. They will set up the pass with Dillon's runs.  Now, it is true that the Bengals have done nothing yet to indicate that they will explode offensively, but still, memories of them lighting it up with Pickens & Scott are not too distant in all of our memories.  I bring this up for the sake of history & to emphasize that their receivers do have the ability to make things happen. This potential is compounded by the respect defenses must give the running game with Corey Dillon.

Jeff Blake is most dangerous when "out of the pocket" making plays downfield. Blake throws one of the best deep balls in the business & is crisp and short on intermediate type passes.  The knock against him is his inconsistency. 

# 8. Keep the Bengal defense guessing: (attn.: Rams Offense). With Dom Capers leaving Carolina, this is the only game the Rams will play against a 3-4 defense this year.  Dick LeBeau's 3-4 zone blitz schemes are designed to put players everywhere (instead of in normal positions on the field).  The only problem last year was that this young team had a hard time getting to the gaps. They dared the Titans to throw & they did...successfully.  This bodes well for the Rams.

Mike Martz has gained a lot of recognition for being unpredictable and keeping the opponents guessing (unsuccessfully!)  on defense. Kurt Warner connected with 7 receivers in the 1st quarter alone last week. The Falcons defense were so out of position that very few of those passes even had someone tight on the receiver. Martz was mixing it all up throughout every down.  On 1st down, they ran the ball 13 times & threw the ball 10 times  On 2nd down they ran the ball only 7 times & threw the ball 12 times.  On 3rd down, they threw 6 times & ran it 7---and had a extremely good 71 % conversion rate.  Those are some excellent indicators on a offense keeping a defense on its heals.  The Bengals best chance to stop this offense is to blitz often & create pressure for Warner. If they don't, they will be picked apart big chunks at a time.

# 7. The team that maintains the focus wins the game: (attn: Rams # offense & defense). The Bengals appear to be in disarray.  In fact, with a loss this weekend, the Bengals could pass the Rams and gain the dubious distinction of being the worst team of the 90's.  There are rumors about Jeff Blake being traded. Blake is openly pouting about the lack of protection from his offensive line.  Their young stud RB Corey Dillon stopped contract negotiations at the start of the season.  They caved in and  gave Carl Pickens big money in an attempt to increase fan enthusiasm & ticket sales.  The team's weakest units are at very critical positions (secondary & offensive line).  Only one O-lineman is playing the same position he did last year & 3 more are starting for the first time.  In contrast, the Rams appear to be a unified team with a sense of purpose.  If the Rams get off to a early lead, I think the Bengals could just lay down. But if the Bengals gain the lead, the Rams have enough confidence in their passing game to come back late & continue fighting to the end of the game.  I give the Rams a very big "character" advantage in this game.

# 6. Get Marshall into the open spaces out of the gate: (attn: Rams offense).  I mentioned that the Bengals will set up the pass with the run.  Well, the Rams will do the opposite in their  high percentage passing offense. 

The Rams offensive line are coming off the best performance they have had in a very long time.  They will be going up against a defensive line of  RDE John Copeland (6-3, 280, 4 tkls, 1 ass., 1.5 sks), LDE Michael Bankston (6-5,  285, 10 tkls, 2 ass., 0 sks),  & NT Oliver Gibson (6-2, 290, 5 tkls, 2 ass., 1 sk).  Their best player is John Copeland, but he will not be looking forward to this game after watching the hurtin' Orlando put on Chuck Smith last week. The guards are very important against 3-4 schemes since they stop the gap-filling LBs.  In this game the guards must  keep two very athletic & promising young inside linebackers,  Takeo Spikes & Brian Simmons,  out of the way. The Rams are in good shape on the right side with Adam Timmerman but average at LG with Tom Nutten. Steve Foley will try to fight of Roland Williams on the strong side.  It appears that Adrian Ross has supplanted Reinard Wilson at weakside linebacker.  The Rams will soften the middle of the field by hitting the short passing routes & running back clearouts to the sidelines, keeping their inside backers on their heals. 

The Bengals were last in the NFL in rushing yards last year, allowing 163 yards per game.  They simplified the reads from a two gap to one gap and that has been effective so far. As a result, the Bengals have been pretty effective this year so far against the bigger backs (Means & George), but their containment broke down twice against the speedier Biakabutuka, which led to two long TD runs. So this year, then, their young and talented defense has allowed only 102 yards per game (4.3 per attempt), and even that is misleading if you consider the two big 60 + yard runs Biakabutuka had against them last week. Take out those two runs out & they have allowed only 180 yards rushing at (2.6 per attempt)  in 3 games.

The Bengals have dared the Titans, Chargers & Panthers to pass the ball, concentrating on stopping the run.  I fyou know anything about the Rams at all you realize this plays right into their strengths. So it should be interesting to see how the Bengals handle a team that passes to set up the run the way Mike Martz has done it thus far.

# 5. Put Pressure on Blake with a containment push, don't let him run free:  (attn: Rams defense). The Bengal's have allowed 7 sacks so far & the majority of them have been by  the LBs or outside containment rushers of their opponents  (Panthers: Michael Barrow-1, Antonio Edwards-1, Mike Rucker-1,  Chargers: Junior Seau-1, Raylee Johnson-1, Mike Mohring-1, Titans:  Barry Wortham- � sack & Marcus Robertson- � sack).  These sacks were often the result of good downfield coverage, which the Rams are capable of doing.  I believe Grant Wistrom create problems for Blake most of the day with his relentless pursuit.  Even though Willie Anderson is a solid veteran, I believe Carter is on a mission this year & will continue his road to the Pro Bowl.  A well placed corner blitz by Lyght, or a inside push by Clemons & Jenkins rushing up to the line several times,  should prove very effective against this line who has not played much together and which has Blake retreating before the plays even have time to develop downfield.

# 4. Give Warner the time to continue his impressive 3rd pct. success: (attn: Rams offense). Atlanta did not get a sack  and  the Ravens recorded only 2 (Ray Lewis had one & the other was the result of a secondary blitz).  That is an impressive statistic for this offensive line, given the quality of the two defenses they have gone up against. The Bengals have recorded 7 sacks themselves so far this year. They have gotten them from true 3-4 zone blitzing form (ie. from all over the field). Weakside LB-Adrian Ross got one aganist the Panthers. Nose tackle Gibson got 1 & John Copeland got 1 � against the Chargers (SS-Myron Bell got the other half).  Inside linebackers Brian Simmons & Takeo Spikes each recorded a sack against the Titans.  So true to form, Dick Lebeau's defense spreads it around & constantly looks for the weak protection on the line. Pace should have Copeland tied up all game & Miller is good enough to handle Bankston on the right side.  My concern is in the middle of the line.  Spikes & Simmons have the athleticism to shoot the gaps and maintain balance while fighting through the blocks.  I believe they will focus on the gap between Nutten & Gruttadauria by crashing one of the ILB in the gap, followed closely by a outside rush, while putting the other two LB's in short coverage.  This will mean that Timmerman will have to get back quick to help seal of the inside push & Miller will have to protect his left shoulder for a inside move by Bankston.  Holcombe's ability to pick this up will be challenged & you have to expect Cincinnatti  to get an easy lane on several of Martz motion plays where Holcombe goes wide or releases at the point of impact to go into a pattern. (The best example I can think of is the Ravens game and the way Ray Lewis shot like a cannon off  Miller's right shoulder and scooped up Warner in the blink of an eye because Miller was locked up with Rob Burnett.) There will be several plays where Warner will have to unload quickly & take the smack.  So far he has done a good job at this, but he doesn't have the speed of the inside linebackers who can shoot through the middle of the line like that. It will be interesting to see how they pick this up.

 # 3. Make them beat you in the air by filling the box on Dillon: (attn: Rams defense). You can tell me all about Jeff Blake's pretty long ball, his ability to throw on the run, the very solid receiving corps they have in Carl Pickens & Darnay Scott and their under utilized TE Tony McGee,  as well as the creative minds of Coslet & Anderson.  I still think that if you shut down Corey Dillon you win the game. The Rams struggled last year against the run, especially against big backs,  and Corey Dillon is as brutal as they come.  I also believe the Bengals passing game is more potent than what we've seen so far from Baltimore & Atlanta, and it is especially  effective when the strong safety cheats up to contain Dillon and limit his very impressive average per carry.  The Bengals offensive line is a work in progress with only Willie Anderson playing where he did last year. The Bengals signed several lineman late in the free agency period during the off-season who  made the starting lineup. Due to his good pass blocking, the Bengals were hoping that left tackle Kevin Sargent could stay healthy,  but it hasn't worked out.  Rod Jones is taking over for him so far this year with ex-Jet Matt O'Dwyer beside him. Matt is a tenacious guy who will make stupid mistakes & give up stupid penalties.  D'Marco Farr is quick enough to get O'Dwyer for at least two false starts.  Rich Braham has moved from left guard to center and another newcomer, Brian DeMarco,  takes over that spot.  Brian is big & strong but has poor feet.  The anchor,  right tackle Willie Anderson,  should have his hands full with what Kevin Carter and what Carter has been bringing to the games.  There were several plays where Carter was dragging the Falcons's tackle & guard into the backfield and still getting pressue on Graziani.

In breaking down the Bengals rushing attack from the first 3 games, several obvious things stand out.  They initially planned on running behind Anderson at RT and up the middle in game one.  In the first game, they ran Dillon that way 9 times for only 27 yards though.  They also ran him up the middle between the guards 9 times for 38 yards. The only long run he had was out wide left for 34 yards. They also mixed things up a lot with Ki-Jana Carter.  The 2nd game doesn't offer much information since they were out of the game early with 5 turnovers and with Akili Smith in the game.  They still ran 53 % of all of Dillons runs at RT. He did average 6.0 yards per carry on the 7 runs behind Anderson though.   It is in the 3rd game that you really see a pattern of success for them.  Dillon ran the ball a total of 20 times for 113 yards against the Panthers,  who are poor against the run.  Dillon got 49 of those yards on two runs out wide right.  They switched the load from Anderson (4 rushes- 10 yards) to LG-Matt O'Dwyer (7 rushes-32 yards).  The consensus has always been that Corey Dillon's success is between the tackles, but considering the 1st 3 games,  it was the unexpected wide rushes that had the most success. So, in summary, the Bengals ran Dillon 5 times on wide sweeps for a total of 88 yards (whopping 17.6 per attempt). All of his other 48 attempts have between or behind or between the tackles for 128 yards (a paltry 2.7 yards per attempt).   The obvious conclusion is be careful in maintaining outside containment with Mike Jones & Todd Collins staying home. 

# 2. Get a lead early: (attn: Rams offense & defense). The Bengals have been outscored 67 to 28 by the end of the half so far this season.  They have only outscored their opponents in the 3rd quarter, which is a result of the Chargers & Panthers having huge leads at that point.  The Bengals have been outscored 14 to 37 in the 1st qtr. & outscored 14-30 in the 2nd.  If you  also consider that the Rams have outscored their two opponents 45 to 3 in the first half,  you can easily see a area of exploitation.  Getting off to a early lead was a real weakness for the Rams last year, but they have responded to that problem with an unbelievable turnaround so far this year. So the Bengals weakness has been the Rams strength. And the Bengals do not offer the maturity or discipline to battle back.  The Rams could put this game away early in the 3rd quarter by putting points up in the 1st drive after the half. I will not go so far as saying the team that jumps off quickly will win this game, because I think the Rams passing game can never be counted out.  But if the Rams get a early jump it should be over quickly.  If on the other the Bengals gain confidence by  keeping the game close or by leading, I believe the Rams have the potential to be a team capable of late heroics.

# 1. Exploit the Bengals weak secondary: (attn: Rams offense). There is every reason to believe that the Rams skill position players are the key to this game also.  The Rams are averaging 279.5 yards a game passing the ball, and in the Bengals they go up against a team that has allowed an average of 235.3 yards even though their offense has had the ball most of the time.  Their secondary represents one of their biggest weaknesses. Right cornerback Atrell Hawkins has the tools to be good, but has shown a tendency to gamble, allowing the big play.   Rodney Heath has stepped in for Corey Sawyer (coming off knee surgery) and has struggled, and was burnt badly by Kevin Dyson against the Titans & Muhsin Muhammad against the Panthers.  With high draft pick Charles Fisher out with a serious knee injury, the nickel back is Cory Hall (usually a free safety), and he will struggle to keep up with Az Zahir Hakim in 3 WR sets. The Bengals need to get their fastest cover guy in this game to stand a chance against Kurt Warner's and his excellent 3rd & long efficiency. Loosing Sam Shade has also hurt the Bengals. Myron Bell takes over the strong safety position and Greg Myers plays free safety.  Both of these guys are average in their abilities and production and will struggle. They will have a hard time trying to out-muscle Roland Williams on short patterns while also keeping on the wide outs's post patterns.  I don't believe their secondary will be much help against the Rams RBs, so this will pit Faulk against LBs for most of the day. So far the Bengals opponents have been able to connect on a whopping 65.1 % of attempts & if you add that into Kurt Warner's 65.2 % completion rate it is clear that passing against them will be easy.  Opponents do not get 65 % against your defense if you are in tight man coverage or have a gambling secondary.  This is a team that will give you a cushion on the corner & that plays right into the Rams hands, with their great wide outs.  The Bengals have put a lot of emphasis on zone coverages, which has really hurt them,  considering their inability to pressure the QB consistently.  This forces them to play more man coverage which is suicide against Bruce & Holt.  A QB with time can pick this defense apart, which I think is the # 1 reason that the Bengals will suffer trying to stop the Rams resurgent passing game.

NOTE ON SPECIAL TEAMS:
The special teams game is a game of field position & ex-Ram Will Brice has proven to be better at this than Rick Tuten so far this year. Brice has been able to offer better statistics than Tuten in all important categories (average punt, net punt, hang time,  & punts inside the 20).  It should be noted that because of Frank Gansz Tuten is trying to become a directional punter angling for the sidelines. He has done this, limiting return yards from dangerous return men Jermaine Lewis-Ravens & Tim Dwight-Falcons. Jeff Wilkens has been rock solid so far this year,  compared to the Bengals Doug Pelfrey,  who has struggled with kicks wide left, wide right & short already this year.  Advantage Rams.

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS:
Rams over Ravens (27-13),  Final (Rams Win, 27-10)
Rams over Falcons (23-13), Final (Rams Win, 35-7)

PREDICTION:
This  game involves two different tales. In the first tale the Bengals running game will be a real test for the Rams "undersized" front four & middle linebacker.  Although Dillon should average above 4 yards per carry,  if they stay home and play smart, the Rams should be able to keep him from breaking anything over 10 yards.  In the second and more critical tale, the Bengals secondary does not have the ability to stay with the Rams gifted skill players.  The only way they can stay in the game is if Kurt Warner has his first poor game & is inconsistent. Most poor days are the result of pressure on the QB and breakdowns by the offensive line (who graded out extremely well last week).  Considering his apparent composure,  I don't believe this is a serious concern at all, but we all have seen many great QB's have bad days & eventually he will experience one.  I just don't think it will be this game.  It is more likely to happen with a team that is effective jamming our receivers and putting quick pressure on Warner---a team like the Dolphins, Buccaneers, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders & (um...Falcons?---Oh!... never mind).  The Rams motion passing game will school the Bengals young secondary most of the day & if the Rams give Corey Dillon the respect he deserves and game plan around him & make Blake beat them in the air, then they should not be caught looking ahead to the 49ers game the following week at the Trans World Dome.

SCORE: Rams over Bengals (30-14)

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APPENDIX: Two quick points.

Lee: Amp Lee may also return this week and if he is in the game with Marshall Faulk, that will create all kinds of problems.  I don't think we are going to see them both in the backfield together but may see them on the same play with Marshall lined up in the slot. I would rather rest Amp one more week & not give the 49ers any film on their intentions for him

Unity: The Rams seem to have put it all together with a great mix of youth & veterans. Several veterans are hoping to be in the national spotlight & have appeared willing & ready to accept that responsibility that goes with that goal---including Kevin Carter, Todd Lyght, Keith Lyle, Orlando Pace & Isaac Bruce (all of whom could receive post- season honors). Add already established stars in Marshall Faulk, Mike Jones & Adam Timmerman.  Throw in some very solid players---Kurt Warner, Todd Collins, D'Marco Farr &  Ray Agnew.  And finally, young players who still have unrealized upside, such as Torry Holt, Dexter McCleon, Billy Jenkins, Robert Holcombe,  & London Fletcher. This is a a team with depth, with a positive attitude,  & with a coaching staff that has learned to connect with its players.  I believe all of this adds up to a huge advantage for the Rams.