 REFLECTIONS AFTER WEEK 6, BY RAMMED FOR LIFE
(Oct 22) |
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2nd ATLANTA GAME. During the
game, I was in my office getting some paperwork done. I worked hard up until the game and
afterward. In between, I listened in over the net and enjoyed the chat room thing. As we
won the game, I had the impression that we were REALLY sloppy and not very good
defensively. Then I went home and watched the tape. The first time through, I realized that we were much better than we had seemed via radio. And I started to formulate a sense of what was happening. On Vermeil's radio show, some callers asked about our Pass D. And it is true that Chandler lit us up as no one has this year. My sense was that there was some truth to people's concerns. Chandler threw into a secondary that was clearly playing soft, and at key moments of this game, we were not really all that far ahead. Also, sloppy run D continues to be a problem at times, though I was amazed when I saw how few yards we actually gave up. And the fact is that we stuffed the run more often than giving much up. Well, let's look at the tapes. I am going to concentrate mostly on the 1st half. The 2nd half was garbage time for the most part, and the 1st half shows us what we need to see. The "Letdown factor: Sloppy Play It doesn't take many brains to see that we made numerous errors, especially early. We had just beaten the Whiners and a letdown was inevitable. We brought our B game, well, maybe a B+. Both lines jumped. The DL jumped early, partly because Chandler has a great hard count, and partly because it their instinct to penetrate (more on that below). The OL jumped for completely inexplicable reasons! Its errors ruined drive 3 and almost stopped drive 1. Otherwise, I don't think we played a bad game. Defensively, I thought we gave a great, intense effort. We got beat at times. I think the reasons for that are observable. Run D We have been discussing this for a long time. We do tend to give up runs through gaping holes. For fans who remember the Deacon, Merlin, and Jack Y, it is embarrassing. Is it personnel or the scheme? Or both? Or sloppy play? I think we have some individuals who have problems now and then. Jones does not stuff the run well. Fletch is getting better and better, but he blows plays. BJJ has some bad misses at the LOS. Yet the bulk of what we see comes from the scheme. It's not that it is a bad scheme. It just has priorities, and it values penetration of the LOS to the possibility of stuffing run after run. And in this D, Farr and Agnew do exactly what they are supposed to do. Let's start with Atl's first play: a dive over left tackle. This play went for 9 up through the middle. It was called back for holding, but the play should have been a success. Vermeil actually mentioned the key breakdown in his radio show. And it illustrates the Rams' philosophy of defense. On the play, Farr drives upfield VERY HARD. Now this is a RUN, and most DTs, if not DEs, are taught to sense the run and then firm up at the LOS, the classic "2-gap," stuff the run approach. Farr wants none of this. He is UPFIELD, stepping AROUND the OG in a way that in my day was considered undisciplined. In a later RUNNING play, Farr actually uses a swim move to step around and to the outside of the OG. A DT using a swim move even as a run develops? Wow! Now, the question is why? Is Farr making a mistake? Well, no--he does it ALL THE TIME. No DT tackle in football PENETRATES as consistently. Some might say no DT in football gets caught upfield and out of position as often! Is it to "cover up" a weakness and try to transform it into a strength? To some extent, probably yes. When Farr does hit into the DT and try to hold his ground, he gets moved some. It is not a disaster, but it ain't Merlin Olsen. And Agnew is much better at playing 2-gap, which he does fairly often. Yet the play in question goes between Wistrom and Agnew, not Farr! Agnew is offset on the OC, and he too drives upfield in the gap, taking himself out of the play. Wistrom similarly is heading upfield hard, though he does begin to angle down toward Oxendine, though not in time. I am convinced that the Rams send their Dlmen upfield more because they want to than because they mean to disguise a weakness. (I know some on the board will disagree.) First, I will follow Fadler and say that Agnew gets far, far too little credit for his ability to stuff a play. I didn't count them all, but in this game, he had several 2-gap type stuffs, tackling the RB for nothing or even a loss. While I wouldn't call him downright elite, he is well above average at this. (The ATL tackles got handled far more often this game, and they ARE considered elite!) Second, it isn't just Farr who is hurling himself upfield. ALL the Dlmen, including the guys who rotate in do it. It is a philosophy, a commitment. And its rationale is evident: The Ram D wants penetration because penetration disrupts: both against the run and pass. On our 2nd offensive play of the game, after MF got 5 off tackle, ATL run-blitzed 2 LBs and the color guy mentioned how popular early-down, run blitzes have become. Nothing can "blow up" a running play like penetration, as we show on DL on numerous occasions. Of course, RBs often run PAST penetration, too, and that's why this was considered poor technique in my day. You get a big loss one play, then give up 22 the next. This approach places pressure on the LBs, who must make the play. On that first play, Collins is angling down, but fighting through the block and is a bit late. Fletch makes the big mistake: he steps too far left, and the OG is able to get into him and slow him down (Vermeil mentioned Fletch leading with the wrong shoulder.) With both Wistrom and Agnew upfield, and both LBs a step slow, a seam opens for the RB. Oxendine gets 9 yards. We see the other side of the coin in the next play. Starting out 1st and 20 on their 8, ATL runs a draw. Farr gets the double team, and they drive him off the ball a couple yards. The LBs have started WAY off the ball, and Fletch steps up to take on the Lead blocker. Fletch gets caught up enough that the RB should get past him. But Ox gets stopped for 2 yards. Why? Wistrom gets WAY upfield, reads the draw, and shuts the play down from the outside. This is the sort of play Wistrom makes very well. And on this play, the penetration gets the play stopped. When you sell out to penetrate, you will sometimes get burned. You must then have good LBs to make the plays. Collins stuffs very well. Fletch is still inconsistent, but is getting better and better. Remember, the color guy actually referred to Fletch along with Lewis and Seau. In the chat room, we all thought that was overstatement, but it is an indication of Fletch showing some good stuff. Yet he does not always make the play getting through traffic. Jones is a good cover guy, but does not stuff the run too well. (I am hoping Little will be tougher, though I don't see clearly how they will use him.) My read is that the coaching staff takes a calculated risk. They know we will get some great stops for losses. They know we will give up some open seam gains. But they figure, that, especially with our O generating points, those open seam gains will not add up to too much. And, as our LBs grow into the job (including Little and Clemons), they figure those gains will be fewer and fewer. When you compare the BALT game with what has happened since, you have to figure they are not too far wrong. Would I like to see our front become a steel curtain? Sure. Yet this D is geared to disrupt by penetrating. And it does that often enough that it is giving up very little against the run. Which of course raises the question, how would we fare against an excellent power running team. Well, I freely acknowledge that Dallas and Miami's Ols scare me. Yet remember this: ATL has a very good, Super-Bowl level OL. Jamal was the focal point of that O last year, and he gained yards on almost everyone. Jamal is out, but ATL still has some hard-running, heavy backs and a superb blocking FB in Christian (back last week). And more often than not, our penetration-style Dve front stuffs them! I would say this: if this is a weakness, and it may be, it is a very small weakness. Furthermore, when watching this run D, you have to know what you are seeing. You are seeing a team that CHOOSES to penetrate, and accepts and tries to deal with the consequences as much as possible. So far, the consequences this year have been minimal. Other instructive running plays: * 1st down, Ram 31, series #3: Oxendine for 5. Here is one of those plays where Fletch gets himself blocked. Collins pursues and the DBs come up, but Fletch does NOT make the play. * 2nd & 5: Oxendine counters for 10+. ALL BJJ's fault. Those who complain about him overrunning plays can point to this one. But why is he asked to do a LB's job? Because Fletch is blitzing away from the run. There's the philosophy again! * 1st Down, series 4: draw to Oxendine, Agnew DESTROYS the OG and gets the stop for a loss. KC stunts too far up field and is out of the play. Poor Dve discipline, right? * 2nd Down, Draw: well, maybe not. This time, KC PENETRATES like crazy, destroys the block, and gets Ox for about a 6 yard loss. If you want to see the UPSIDE of the pentration-style Dve front, watch these 2 plays very closely. Two straight losses, not by playing 2-gap, but by penetrating. Pass D In the 2nd quarter, Chandler got into a rhythm. He hurt us. We are not used to that. What does it mean? First, it does not mean that we have a weak secondary. Far from it. Here is Vermeil in today's PD: "There aren't many good corners in the league. In fact, I feel confident in saying that our depth at the cornerback position is as strong as any team in the league." I agree, and so does JT who wrote a glowing article about our DBs. Yet we did give up yards to Chandler, and we need to understand why. Let's go back to the tapes. OK, we left ATL on series #1 2nd and 18 on their own 10, the draw having gained little. Now we see what penetration is designed to do. The Rams Blitz (Jones I think--hard to tell). Jones tips off the blitz because of Chandler's hard count. There is nothing more worthless than a blitz from a LB who has tipped it off. Not only does the Olman see it coming, but the blitz loses its steam. Jones gets nowhere. But Farr, who has switched sides with Agnew, BLOWS THE OG BACK INTO CHANDLER'S FACE! It is amazing. Wistrom gets upfield too, while Agnew, Carter, and Jones get blocked. Chandler is knocked down as he throws the ball away. No chance. 1st pass of the game and he has no time to breathe. Penetration! The PD article mentions the obvious: the DL is the DB's best friend. And in this game, like last game, the Rams have RELENTLESS pressure on the vast majority of passing plays. 3rd Down. Chandler gets no pressure, and puts the ball in Mathis' hands. Mainly, because the hard count drew both KC and GW offsides, and that threw the rhythm off. Fortunately, Mathis dropped the ball. 3rd down. Chandler wanders outside on a bootleg. Agnew and KC have twisted, and Agnew cuts off the angle very hard and swallows Chandler up. Chandler is gimpy, but Agnew looked very fast in closing. Ball thrown away so badly the ref must explain why there is no grounding call. The pattern matches that on run D: pressure upfield, understand you will get burned somewhat up the middle, but minimize the damage. How do they do that? With their DBs. On both 3rd down plays (with the penalty) the CBs play up very tightly on the WRs. But then, they fall back. On the penalty play that Mathis drops, Allen has released Mathis into the middle where the help is, and the secondary plays in effect a fairly soft zone with the LBs dropping into the hook zones. There is room there. Mathis SHOULD HAVE caught that ball for 20 yards. Again, the philosophy is exhibited. Get pressure upfield (the pressure is off on the penalty play because of the hard count). Jam the WRs initially. But then turn them over to Safeties playing pretty deep zones for safety. The idea is that the combination of the pressure upfield and the initial jams will create enough disruptions to stop many passing plays. Some will get through into that soft middle, but the safeties will be just that: safeties, who do not give up the long ball. I did not study the D last year with great attention to detail. I seldom taped those miserable games and could barely watch when it was live. But I have a strong impression that, this year, we are playing our safeties back more, in a softer, but safer technique. And while this gives up some completions that look ugly, the results are much better. We have NOT been getting burned as we were last year. Giunta and Bunting have talked about simplifying the D this year to avoid mistakes. Partly it is the number of reads and adjustments. Partly, though, I think they are calling a less aggressive game with their secondary. And we ARE getting burned far less! I don't know if I would go so far as to say that I hate it. But it is less satisfying than the days when our proud D used to hold teams to negative yardage FOR A GAME! Yet Os are so sophisticated that it is very hard to take everything away. And there is truth to that, too. If you aggressively attack a pass O upfield AND in the secondary, you WILL frequently be shredded by today's highly sophisticated Os. They are so good and there are so many tough possession WRs out there that it is very tough to destroy everything the way Buddy Ryan's Bears or Parcels' Giants used to. Indeed, I don't know of any D that matches up to those standards today. I sense many teams going to the Fritz Schurmur approach: get pressure upfield with some blitzing, but keep the DBs back as an umbrella to contain the WRs in the middle of the field. They will move the chains, but you will get stops when the O makes a mistake. You also get something else: a Red Zone that is tough to score in! The Viking D has known this since the 1960s! Remember how often we got to the goal line on them and then got stopped? In the Red Zone, the DBs and LBs have less ground to cover: the sidelines AND THE BACK OF THE ENDZONE act as defenders. Hence, a really good Dve secondary that has played umbrella containment for 60 yardes, suddenly gets tougher in the Red Zone, because the gaps in their D shrink dramatically. All of which raises . THE INT! I am going out of order here, but I want to discuss GW's pick. Man have I heard a lot of rubbish on this. This was NOT a LUCKY INT! The RUNBACK, was lucky, yes. But the INT was the logical conclusion of the Dve philosophy I have been discussing. On the play, The Dve front swarms Chandler. Farr makes the OG look terrible with a loop that breaks him in clean. Jones makes a GREAT blitz and gets on Chandler's arm as he throws. The ball pops up and when you make that happen, the chances are very good that the D is going to get the ball. Now, if any OTHER Dlman gets that ball, he goes down and our O comes out to start moving from its own 15 or so. I'd say would have been a good result! And that is the plan: get pressure to force mistakes while defending the big play, which actually in a sense gets easier near the goal line. That has been the Vikings' Dve mantra for years. I'll bet that Dve plays in that context have won 50 games for MN in the last 20 years! Now, let me stress this: THIS IS NOT A PREVENT! On the radio show, someone asked Vermeil if we were using a prevent and he said no. If you want to see a prevent, watch the tape of Faulk's run draw on 3rd and 26. The Falcs rush only three and the CBs are in about Row 15 of the stands. Everyone is deep, and there is NO pressure. This helps make the run easy. Of course, mortals won't get the 1st down, but the OPPORTUNITY is there because the initial Point of attack is so thinly defended. (Great downfield blocks help.) By contrast, there is the ATL conversion of a 3rd and 15 in the 2nd quarter. Vermeil was asked about this too. Allen gives up a DEEP cushion and lets Mathis get past the 1st Down line before coming up. Chandler hits him, and this one play lets the ATL pass O get into a rhythm that it managed to keep for much of the rest of the game. And this was the play the caller was pressing Vermeil on. Now there is no question that Allen blows this play. He leaves too large a cushion and gives up 1st down yardage without a challenge. Soft play, Man! The caller asks Vermeil why Allen can't play any tighter. Vermeil answers that, on the play, the Rams were in a 3 deep zone responsible for keeping the WR in front. It's not because Allen can't play tight: "He can play tight!" insists Vermeil. And while Allen was maybe 5 yards TOO DEEP, you must understand the concept. Because while we had the 3 guys deep, at the same time we were PRESSURING THE HELL OUT OF CHANDLER! This was NOT a prevent! Indeed, the front 4 gets upfield VERY HARD, and BJJ follows them in. This is a SAFETY BLITZ! He is into Chandler, hitting him while that arm is coming forward. At the FRONT of the play, we are very, very aggressive, and BJJ is 1/4 of a second from a sack or a deflected pass. And THAT"S WHY ALLEN WAS PLAYING OFF THE WR! Again, the concept is to shorten the window of opportunity for the QB to get the ball thrown well. It's a percentages play. The QB has very little opportunity to complete the play. Chances are good that we either get the knockdown soon enough--and BJJ just misses that--or the DB makes the stop for less than 15. Again, this almost works. If Allen plays that a BIT more aggressively, they will have a very hard time completing the pass. Allen's was a poor play. But the formula was also SAFE. When Chandler did manage to beat the odds, the play only gave up 18. The damage of Allen's mistake was contained. And that is what we have seen, not just in this game, but in others. We get pressure, force early throws, get knockdowns, but QBs do complete balls into our somewhat soft middle. They do not complete enough to hurt us badly. I really don't see anything DIFFERENT in this 2nd quarter, wither in what we do or what Reeves tries to do. The only thing different was that, in this game a Super Bowl QB managed to hit a hot streak while under a lot of pressure! That's why you imagine some teams will test you more--they have some really good players! Chandler is very good and he made many plays while getting the crap kicked out of him! Let's look at some other key pass D plays: * 2nd and 10, ATL's 2nd drive. They try to run Oxendine across the middle. Fletch runs step for step with him and almost pciks the ball. Very impressive coverage from a MLB! * 3rd and 10: swing pattern, Clemons times the blitz PERFECTLY and gives Chandler no time to complete this safety valve pattern. Result: Chandler 0-4 at that point (with 1 drop). * 1 down, ATL's 3rd drive on the short field: Chandler hits the TE for about 18. As the play starts, the CBs are up and tight, and BJJ is up like a LB--it looks like we have 4. On the snap, the CBs fly backward, BJJ stays with the slot man, and Fletch drops back into the zone. Jones blitzes and goes no where, the DL penetrates the OLmen, but Christian steps up and picks up Farr. Chandler has time and hits the TE. Directly between BJJ and Fletch. This is the philosophy at work: send some people, but play back in a soft zone. This time, it didn't work, mainly because the ATL OL and Christian did their jobs. A QB with time will KILL any zone. * The TD from Ram 15: obviously, this is Lyght's fault. They swing Christian out for what should be 2-5 yards, but Lyght misses the tackle and he scores. Sloppy! Letdown from Whiner game. * 3rd & 11, Atl's 4th drive: Mathis catches for 25--but a hold brings it back. On the play, both Des get a lot of pressure, and Clemons blitzes behind GW. Clemons does not have the power to get there through the block. This is where we lack a dominant blitzing LB. This is the sort of situation in which Little will really, really help. Allen is in OK position on Mathis, but Mathis catches the ball in front of him, then spins for more yards. Hey--Allen is showing progress, but he is not a McCleon or Lyght. The real question--and I have heard nothing on this, is why Allen remained on Mathis for so long. He really isn't good enough for their best WR. * 1 & 10, short field, drive 5: deep crossing route for 20 yards. This one is just a win for the Falcs. Farr fall down and no one gets pressure. The completion goes against Lyle, who is in very good position. He reaches in front and just misses the ball. This is an excellent QB making a play to a WR who is ver well covered. What can you say? As Vermeil puts it, the other guys are paid to perform too! * 2nd down again: quick slant for 8 or so. These plays are very tough to stop. Notice though that the CBs are playing back on this play. * 1st Dn, drive 6 (after the GW pick), ATL 12 yard line: Chandler hits Dwight out of the slot for 9+. Rams rush 4 (it is the 2 minute drill with the other team on their 12!) and there is some pressure. KC comes close to getting there, but Chandler gets the ball off without being touched. Lyght starts out on the slot, but takes the WR in a cross and Lyle comes up and gets the tackle. It's a routine, good play. * 1st down, ATL 21: Chandler to Ox up the middle for 25. Here's a classic case of what fans become impatient about. BJJ is a half stepo behind Ox, and allows the completion. But notice this: we blitzed 2 LBS! And KC was just getting there to hit Chandler. When you blitz 2, your safety has less help. Chandler stood in and made a good play against a very aggressive Dve call. * 1st down, midfield: Chandler to Dwight for 40 yards or so to the 8. Bad, bad play, right? Well, Chandler gets KILLED. This is the famous zone blitz. We blitz a LB AND GW, who is standing like a LB. GW loops and destroys Chandler who is under a ferocious pass rush. He has NO TIME, and throws AS HE IS FALLING BACKWARDS. Meanwhile, Lyght is running stride for stride with Dwight. When Chandler releases the ball under duress, it comes up short. Dwight has the edge on the short ball, as WRs always do, stops short, and catches it. We do everything right, but Chandler and Dwight do it righter! Very good pro players sometimes make plays, even on a very good Dve effort. * (BJJ gets away with a hold on Santiago in the end zone!) SUMMARY: THE DEFENSE: Our scheme at the LOS is very aggressive; that in the secondary is very conservative. I think those are just FACTS. Anyway, I had a theory. I have been developing a sense of the Dve philosophy exhibited by Giunta and Bunting. It explains a lot. What we are doing on D is very intentional and very consistent. Up front, at the LOS, it is VERY aggressive, almost reckless. In the secondary, though, it is very careful, even conservative. It is based on percentages. We make certain things available to an O. We don't just throw the door open--we challenge everything. But within certain limits, we present some soft areas to be exploited. Yet these areas are very hard to exploit consistently, and meanwhile, we take away the big play and the long score VERY WELL! Within these limits, if you can execute enough times without making mistakes, you can score a limited number of points. We do have some "average" guys on D, or whatever term a person wants. Here is my list for the key spots where improvement is needed: 1. Strong Safety. BJJ is not really playing that well yet. I don;t know if he will. And he is not hitting like he did last year. Bush has given us nothing. This is a position that needs an upgrade. The only hope from current personnel is BJJ getting better or Coady playing there. but I think they see Coady inheriting Lyle's spot. I really suspect we are still looking for our SS. 2. Animal LB. I can't really say which position here. Fletch has real strengths, especially in coverage. His effort on that crossing route was SUPERB--few MLBs could do it! Yet is he really a stud MLB? Jones covers well but is weak against the run and doesn't blitz that well (except for the GW INT. Collins is very tough, but not so mobile. Clemons comes in to blitz well and make a few plays. Little will add a lot to this D. He might be a catalyst to begin a synergy that makes us much better. But I can't figure out he fits into this group. Does Jones lose his job? Anyway, SOMEWHERE among the LB corps, we need an animal to become dominant in a way we currently do not have. It could be a stud MLB in the draft (can we get one drafting 31st?). It could be Little. But we need better impact and a LB who can blitz effectively on a consistent basis! 3. Taje Allen. This guy is improved. He has made some good plays. But he still gets burned more than all the others The answer here, of course, is Bly--we hope! And he has shown the seeds of excellence. But this D is very complex, and that article in the PD explains very well how they try to develop young guys slowly and carefully. I think it is a matter of time until Bly takes over the # 3 spot (assuming Lyght stays after this year). Lyght + McCleon (having a GREAT year!) + Bly would probably be superb. I will stop there. Some will want to say DT. I agree and disagree on this. I think Farr is very valuable and, say, a top 15 DT in the league. He has a narrow strength that fits this D perfectly--on another team it would not. I am VERY comfortable with Agnew. If we COULD get a true, stud DT like Warren Sapp, hey, that's be great. Farr and Agnew could probably rotate effectively The people I wouldn't touch: Lyght, Lyle, McCleon, KC, Grant Wistrom (he is impressing the hell out of me this year! I think he pressures QBs more consistently than KC and he makes great plays against the run), Collins at RLB, and Agnew. And our backups give us something too: Williams, Clemons, Bly, (probably) Coady, Pelshak, etc. This D is being BUILT. We have young, developing depth. As time goes on, it may become one that is unmistakably superb! (And we will STILL penetrate more than is often thought fundamentally sound!) MARTZ AND THE OFFENSE. In a word, Martz showed himself to me as the genuine article Sunday against Atlanta. His wholesale re-invention of the O to hoodwink a team he had played 3 weeks earlier was simply masterful. I know it is early yet, but this guy gives indication of being one of the very best in the business. His flexibility is ASTONISHING! I am convinced that the reliance on the running game was intentional and amazingly successful. It completely whipped Atlanta. And my impression is that the staff kept pushing the run with Faulk after it was no longer necessary as a statement to the league. And we looked great. ATL never stopped us, though we stopped ourselves. Man, even the unsuccessful drives look great. After Horne's TD, the D got a great stop, and KW started moving the ball really well, throwing and rushing Marshall. Then Holc gave the ball up. A few general points: We were outgained in the game. But notice the REASON! Our O was "cheated" out of 3 drives! Once, Holc fumbled half way through what would have been a TD (we were smoking!) Then Tony Horne and Grant Wistrom conspired to prevent our O from getting the ball AT ALL on 2 occasions! I guess the D was getting jealous at the playing time the O was getting! We did have numerous penalties and dropped balls, too. Holt had a bad day, and Bruce dropped a pass to convert a 3rd and long (and there was holding on the play!). And, if anyone tries to tell you the ATL secondary stopped our receivers--laugh in his face! We kept running draws and screens and fake end-arounds and shovel passes and the new "90 Flip" to Marshall, all while the Falcs kept their safeties deep and ran their CBs away from our WRs. Tonight's final point: we are getting GREAT blocking, especially downfield. The OL did well, and Holc is lead blocking terrifically. On one of Marshall's sweeps, Holc leads up, chips the DE trying to get outside the TE, then bounces outside and kicks upt the CLB. 2 blocks for thre price of one! And Andy McCollum is blocking magnificently after pulling. That's Timmerman's specialty too! This means we have 2 true, pulling guards. And our WRs are blocking downfield! One interesting blocking breakdown was on the 2nd sack. It was 2nd and 15 and ATL blitzed LBs from both corners. The Rams had 2 backs in. Holc get his block. Faulk gave up his and Warner got snagged by an ankle. Notice the concept: by contrast with the philosophy we have been using so far this year, we go conservative: keeping both backs in rather than releasing a safety valve. While Faulk does usually block well, I'd just as soon release him on a pattern in that situation. By the way, the OL does fine on the play. It is strictly a blitz on the corners. WARNER 7 THE OFFENSE: Let me say first that I LOVE KW! I really do. As a passer, he has demonstrated touch, accuracy, and toughness. He can convert a 1st down with people hanging on his knees. He can throw gorgeous passes. My favorite from the SF game was the sideline fade route to Faulk on which MF got dinged up. Theat ball was thrown with exquisite touch and accuracy! As a leader, he has already shown the highest qualities of being able to get a team to follow him. I have no doubt at all that he can lead us to a championship if, as a team, we are ready. On another level, though, it poses a much more immediate question: IS KW JUST "HOT"? Guys, our QB has just done something NO ONE ELSE IN NFL HISTORY HAS EVER DONE! His 4-game streak of prolific TD production and completion efficiency has never been matched. Ever. The question is: why? Theory 1: KW is a better passer than anyone in league history. Guys, much as I love KW, much as I want to believe he can become a PEER of Unitas, Namath, Montana, Elway, and Favre, it is simply ludicrous to try to assert that KW is that much better than they were. Remember Marino in his prime? He didn't match KW's 4-game "streak" but no one who remembers the young Dan is likely to believe that anyone could have been a better passer. Theory 1 just doesn't pass the giggle test. Theory 2: we are "hot," running a hot hand that is going to come to an end. This one is a popular one among skeptics and Whiner fans. But I think we all tend to feel this at some level. I mean, if this O is not HOT, wouldn't we like to see one that was? Vermeil himself says he doesn't expect KW to keep up this level of production, though he does expect KW to consistently be very productive. And, of course, in a sense, this theory is indisputable. Conditions will alter and we will eventually fall off in production. I figure this HAS to happen by at least, oh, 2013 or so! (It's a JOKE!) Yet as I look at this thing, I do not really buy into this idea that we are "hot." A hot streak means 2 main things: executing at an unsustainably high level (a basketball guard getting into the "zone" and hitting 7 3-pointers in a row) and having unsustainable good luck (a roulette player hitting red 5 times in a row). And I don't think "being hot" explains what is happening. A number of posters on the board have continued to point out that we are NOT playing error-free games, that Martz hasn't even installed the entire O (can you imagine that?) and that KW is making some errors, especially underthrowing people. KW himself keeps saying he will get better. And this is not bombast. He knows he is making some mistakes in throws and reads and he can feel that he is not yet fully in synch with the whole O (can you imagine THAT?). Nor can you point to a lot of luck. We certainly aren't winning with turnovers. While we have made big plays, you can't point to Immaculate Reception-type stuff, and we have also shown an incredible ability to grind the clock away with long drives spanning many plays. Those things are not the result of luck. I prefer Theory 3: it's a matter of speed of execution. WE ARE PLAYING THIS GAME IN OVERDRIVE WHILE THE REST OF THE LEAGUE IS STUCK IN 2ND GEAR! My view of what is happening is that it is a system thing. KW is a key part of that system. He is an ideal triggerman--I can't think of anyone I would rather have there. But his productivity is a function of the system he inhabits. His effectiveness is to a large extent determined by the situation he finds himself in. First, there is reason to believe other people might also thrive in it. Green did, after all, look equally impressive in those 1st quarters of the pre-season. Further, there is precedent for a truly high-powered O being able to take on a new QB and not miss a step. Last year's Vikings are a prime example. When they put an O on the field coached by Billick and mixing Moss with Carter, Reed, Smith, and an excellent OL, they had a machine. Brad Johnson went down and Randall Cunningham stepped right in 14 1/2 games later, they had set many NFL records. Even more relevant is the Washington O which LOST Green, then signed Brad Johnson and is currently flying high. We know about this O and its lineage going back to the SD Air Coryell attack. This is a quarterback-friendly O, and any sharp, quick, accurate passer can look great in it. A big part of this is Martz. He has shown himself to be smart and adaptable. He is a master at preparing the O for what it will see, providing strategies to offset defensive tactics, and adapting the O to the personnel he has available at the moment. Think of how he adapted his O in the middle of the game Sunday to the fact that he had Faulk and then Holc sitting. But the synergy (obviously, that is the concept I am driving at!) finds it apogee in the Warner Brothers. And it is here that I tend to see the unique quality that have made this historically excellent 4-game streak not only possible, but damn near inevitable. It is the most important reason why I think it will continue to flow. We may have a bad game here and there, but I believe we will have many more 35+ point games no mater WHAT defenses do. I think there is reason to believe that we have put together a set of receivers--including Faulk--that, as a group, are able to get open MORE QUICKLY and in MORE PARTS OF THE FIELD than any group of receivers in NFL history. In the last couple of days, posters have referred to Dr. Z's gushing article on us. In that article, Dr. Z does an amazing thing, one which I was actually wishing I could do while studying the tape the other night. He takes out his stop-watch and times Warner's release of the football. The results are staggering: 23-yard fade to Marshall Faulk 2.3 29-yard seam pattern to Isaac Bruce: 2.0 seconds 27-yard interference penalty vs. Bruce (offsetting penalties) on fade: 2.1 seconds 13-yard TD to Bruce, corner-post: 2.2 seconds 49-yard post-corner to Torry Holt: 3.1 seconds 5-yard TD to Bruce, corner fade: 1.3 seconds 45-yard TD to Bruce, hitch and go: 2.0 seconds Look at these numbers. Look at them again! Stare at them! They are ungodly. The 5 yard TD--1.5 seconds. That's why we are so good in the Red Zone. But look at the other numbers. All are passes OVER 20 YARDS! Two are 40+ yards! And believe this: ALL BUT ONE OF THESE PASSES ARE GONE IN FEWER THAN 2.3 SECONDS! The slow-poke in the lot is a 50 yarder that took a leisurely 3.1 seconds! Go ahead--ask some Dlmen how they fancy their chances of getting to a QB releasing the ball this quickly! Now Dr. Z talks about this speed in the context of the QB. He refers to KW's arena-league experience. This is a plausible hypothesis to some extent. But it is not completely accurate. After all, close observers of the team suggest that KW tends to hold the ball somewhat. TG was thought to read and release more quickly. We know for a fact that Martz's O is designed to get the QB to release the ball quickly. All of these things are factors. But let's face it--a QB cannot release the ball quickly if the Receivers are not open! Well, he can, but the results won't be very desirable. And this is where, in my view, we are smoking the league. Ike, Az, and Torry are phenomenally quick and hard to jam. They get separation from CBs in a blink of the eye. I have posted before about how FAST Faulk is to get upfield behind the blitzing LB. He is lightning! As Receivers, these guys are simply AVAILABLE to their QB much more quickly than ordinary GOOD receivers in the league! Well, that makes a difference, wouldn't you say? As good as KW is, his job is simply easier than most QBs' jobs. He steps back a few steps and sees people available. He releases the ball. The play is over, and the DL hasn't gotten a chance to get anywhere near him. Now, there are 2 approaches to getting receivers open fast. The popular one in recent years is the BIG WR who can step into the slant pattern and muscle through the secondary for the reception: Harold Carmichael, Chris Carter, Terrell Owens, Rice in his prime. This is a great weapon, and many of us--including me!--were pining for a big WR last winter. That's why the Champ Bailey/Dwayne Bates combination seemed so attractive. Now, I don't want to dismiss this approach. It clearly works. Yet it does have a limitation. The muscle-slant pattern over the middle works, but it takes time. It is a containable thing. If a secondary knows you will do that, it can concentrate on just getting the tackle, making the O take a number of plays to score, and letting the natural tendency to make mistakes catch up with the O. Passes over the middle move the chains, but they tend to produce fewer big plays. Big WRs naturally enough are not always the best at breaking plays open, since their quickness may be limited. (Rice was an exception in his prime!) You will score points with it, but your drives will sometimes break down and your point production will not be mind-boggling. To be a truly prolific O, you need more than that. You need yards after the catch and big plays. What got the Vikings over the hump last year was Moss giving them the deep threat, so that they could attack more of the field. This year, teams are taking away Moss's deep ball and Carter is aging, so that ceiling of achievement is closing down again on their O. (They may still break back through it.) In our case, there is no ceiling. Because we attack EVERY ZONE OF THE FIELD with extraordinary speed. Within 2.3 seconds, we can get a receiver open across the middle, on the sideline, in all 3 deep quarters of the field, and out of the backfield. (When Faulk runs a pattern, he comes out of the backfield but gets up the field so fast that he is able to attack zones that are normally attacked only by WRs!) It is this unbelievable quality of rapidly attacking every area of the field that leaves defenders bewildered and shaking their heads. (Remember Woodson after Holt's TD?) If you can complete 45 yarder in 2.0 seconds, ain't no blitz or rushing Dlman on earth going to hurt you! In the aftermath of the first SF game, Whiner fans said some idiotic things. But I found one post very intriguing. It was idiotic, but also revelatory. Some fan wrote that KW was actually undesirable as a QB BECAUSE HE WAS OPERATING ON THE TIME FRAME OF THE ARENA LEAGUE! This poor sap saw that as a liability--too fast for the NFL. But, see, this post does demonstrate a very important insight. The poster was in fact perceiving that KW was executing the offense much, much faster than does the normal NFL team. This is Dr. Z's point. Then, too, the poster's response is a fascinating example of what the league as a whole wants to do right now: he comforts himself with denial. The speed with which the Rams execute is setting a new standard for the league. The first thought is to dismiss it, to say, no, that's just a hot streak. These guys can't keep it up. Etc. This guy goes so far as to define this level of speed as a liability, which is sheer self-delusion. But that won't work. Because defenses, which are designed to be able to deal with a pass that gets off in 3.5 seconds, CANNOT DEAL WITH an O that gets a WR open on a 45 yard pattern and releases the ball to him in 2.0 seconds. There is just nothing the standard D can do about that. I have always told my son one thing about basketball and football: SPEED KILLS! There is nothing that muscle can do to counteract overwhelming speed. If the league is trying to throw in 3.5 seconds and we are releasing the ball in 2.1, our speed of execution is simply untouchable. Until they do something to slow us down, we will continue to blow people away. Blitzing doesn't work because we throw too quickly. Getting people back will open up our running game. Frankly, I don't know what the standard D can do. To deal with us, you would need AT LEAST 3 very good, very quick CBs to take away those early reads to the mercury-quick Warner Brothers. So, there you have my theory on what is going on. What I see is an incredible synergy: a very good QB, a superb OC, and a group of receivers with unprecedented depth and quickness who are able to attack every zone of the secondary within an inconceivably short period of time. Result: completion after completion; TD after TD. I DO NOT expect to see Ds "figure us out." I DO NOT expect to see us "cool off" for any appreciable period of time. I DO NOT think that Warner is the only guy who could make this happen. I know Green could, and Justin may even be able to do very well, if not achieving Warner's standards. (But then we thought that about KW, remember?) I think that ONLY a team with a very good, very deep secondary who are able to take away some of those lightning-fast reads will be able to contain us. And I think that only a couple of teams would qualify for that. How far can we go? I don't know. I want to see how we defend an elite RB. I want to see how our O executes against the very best Ds like TB and Miami and Jax. I just don't know yet how we will look in the post-season environment. But on our run through the rest of the season, I expect this offensive "hot streak" to go on. It may slip temporarily once or twice, but not more than 1-2 of the remaining teams (N O? Chi?) have the D to begin to challenge us. It's a whole lot MORE than the QB, much as I love KW. It is a system with superb personnel, and that system is breathtaking! |
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