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ATLANTA'S REVENGE: THE MOST DANGEROUS ANIMAL IS A
WOUNDED ONE
BY D.K. COX, THE COMMISH (Oct 14)
|
| As usual, SI is behind the times. The NFL
knows who Kurt Warner is. You don't think so? Ask the fans and players of the
49ers, Bengals, Falcons, and Ravens....they'll tell you all about him and what he and the
Rams can do. |
INTERESTING GAME. This game is
interesting in that it involves yet a different test for this amazing Rams team.
The obstacles now in front of this team are:
* Try to sweep a division foe.
* Go on the road after a big win (something which catches many teams basking in the glow).
* Become a team that other teams get up for (this is the kind of game other
teams highlight on schedule, hoping to hand the Rams their 1st loss.)
* Learn that it is much harder to stay in front than it is to play the underdog.
This is where many young teams get tight and think too much instead of just playing the
game.
* And, finally, try to focus on execution and ignore the gauntlets thrown down by the
Falcons players after the last game.
What gauntlets? Well---
* Bob Whitfield got tossed from game for throwing a punch at Zenret Pelshak after he
wouldn't allow Whitfield to bear hug him as he had Wistrom for most of the game. Whitfield
claims he will "slap them around" in the next game.
* Terrance Mathis got upset because the Rams players were telling the Falcons players to
take the loss like men. Terrance claims he will show they how men act when they come to
Atlanta.
* Ray Buchanan complimented Ike on how hard it is to cover him, but trailers that
statement in the Atlanta Constitution by saying he is one of two guys in the league who
CAN effectively single cover Ike.
* Dan Reeves avoids giving the Rams their due by saying that he isn't surprised because it
could happen to any team at any time and it could just as easily go the other way next
time they play.
* Chuck Smith kept reminding the Rams that they have to play twice and to shut their
mouths.
Given the fact that they are playing yet another game on a hard turf, and because of the
growing animosity these teams have developed for each other, injuries might be a
factor. Cut back blocks, rolling up on guys knees, across the middle
head-to-head contact and roughing the passer are some of the things that keep flashing
through my mind when thinking about this game.
TOP 5 KEYS TO GAME # 2 AGAINST THE DIRTY BIRDS.
5. Play this team straight up throughout the game on defense:
The Falcons offense played a very good defense last week in New Orleans and did nothing to
make me think that they will completely fall apart against the better defenses in the
league. Sure they will average 3.0 + on rushing plays and come shy of 200 yards
passing the ball. But Graziani did a solid job last week, and in fact has proven to
be more effective so far this year than the hobbled Chandler (even with his pathetic
Monday night performance against the Cowboys). In fact, Graziani has a higher completion
%, better TD-INT ratio and a higher rating than Chandler. The most important
statistic of course is that he has something Chandler doesn't... A WIN!
If Chandler starts, you get a 33 year old veteran who will hang in on every play
(and take the beating) instead of throwing it away---and because of this his receivers
will keep working until the whistle blows. Last year Chandler lead the league with a 9.65
yards per attempt because of (1) his ability to hang in the pocket and not panic,
and (2) his extremely accurate long ball.
This Atlanta offense will be more productive than it was in game # 1. They must realize
they have to put it up to and make more big plays, so they will have some surprises for
the Rams. Considering the longest run they had last week was by Graziani for 10
yards, what do they have to lose? We might see a flea flicker on the 1st series, or
something to keep the Rams defense thinking. But they ARE LIMITED. I can sum up their
offense so far this year this way:
* They have averaged only 15 first downs per game (70 % passing) because they are very
predictable offensively. They run on early downs and try to pass for 7 yards or more
to get the 1st down. Is Rhome advising them ?
* They have converted 36.6 % of their 3rd downs.
* They average under 300 TOTAL yards per game.
* They have given up an average of 2 � sacks per game.
* They pass the ball at the same ratio they ran the ball last year, which means that since
Jamal's injury, they have really gotten away from their success card of last year.
The Rams should stop the Falcons consistently on 3rd down and make Graziani or Chandler
put together 80 yard drives, and that won't be easy if the Rams get off to another fast
start. I also expect the Falcons QB to take more chances and put the ball where Mathis is
"supposed" to be and have faith he will get there (Chandler does this well).
The Rams have the play-makers on defense to beat this team with a straight up approach to
the game.
A: Falcons skill players: The Falcons currently lack difference- and play-makers on
offense. Of course they have guys like new starting RB Ken Oxedine (20 carries for
57 yards) & the explosive Byron Hanspard; WRs Terrance Mathis, Chris
Calloway, Ronnie Harris, Tim Dwight & Jammi German (who has really stepped up so far
this year); as well as TE-O.J. Santiago (6'-7") & rookie Reggie Kelly (who
is being pushed into the game to create unpredictability & save face for giving up a #
1 in trade for him last year in the 2nd round of the draft). (Incidentally, I honestly
expect to see Kelly, the so-called blocking TE, get more balls thrown his way than
Santiago as the season goes on. Regardless. None of these guys have the ability to
demand consistent double coverage or to expose match-up weaknesses.
B. In the trenches: This defensive line can get in the backfield very quickly.
D'Marco Farr is absolutely flying of the snap, to the point where you would swear he jumps
too early. He explodes out of his stance and swims to his left so fast that often
the guard is caught still in his stance when D'Marco's hand is on his outside shoulder.
Ray Agnew continues to close the gaps, and he has the ability to slide down the line
while pushing back the line of scrimmage. Grant Wistrom will probably be in for a
long day considering the last game. Whitfield, a 10 year Pro Bowl player, got away
with a lot of holding last time, and doubtless he put a big red circle around this game
after getting tossed when the upstart Rams did some talking and rookie Troy Pelshak
objected to Whitfield's bear hugs. The real debacle in the last game were the
ridiculously obvious and uncalled holds on Kevin Carter. In one play when Kevin was
putting fast and immediate pressure on Chandler while being double teamed by Ephraim
Salaam and Gene Williams, who were both guilty of holding at the same time-they
draped themselves on each shoulder and locked in under both of Kevin's arms. I'm
assuming the only reason the official let the play go was because Kevin STILL maintained
the rush effectively. Atlanta will surely have to respect Carter, once again
leaving D'Marco the opportunity to get fast pressure up the middle against Robbie Tobeck
and to shoot by William's left as Williams tries to help Salaam with Carter.
C. Rams Linebackers & Secondary: The Rams LBs did a good job of staying home in their
1st game. London played the pursuit and zeroed in on Hanspard while Todd Collins held up
the line of scrimmage wide on Wistrom's right side. Carter is able to hold off
pursuit to his side, since he he comes in on the tackle from a wide angle, so as
long as the Mike Jones & London Fletcher make good reads, they can fill the
inside gap created by Carter's wide rushes. There is no reason to think that the
Rams secondary will not do well against their receivers. Everyone is playing well
together and making it very hard to get off a play for a lot of yards. The have
protected the outside very well on passing patterns, using the sidelines very
effectively as an "extra defender." While watching the first four
games I felt they were vulnerable to the slants (which every team is in this offensive
league), but now realize they try to make the play on the ball if they are in
position, but do not go for the double fake of a inside/out move. This way they
don't let the receiver get behind them. (The way this secondary avoids letting guys
get behind them is as amazing as the way the Rams receivers DO get behind their
opponent's secondary!). Todd Lyght has become a shut down corner in this league
& McCleon is playing with obvious confidence. Taje Allen impressed everyone with
his break on the ball on the interception last week. Dre Bly's interception pumped me up
because he managed to get position on Stokes on an inside slant in the red
zone. That was a big league play. Bly's interception came from his ability to turn
inside with balance on his wide hips without stumbling on the turn around while
maintaining good pursuit speed. He did not allow Stokes to get the step on him.
Mathis is the most consistent scoring threat they have (he will become the Falcons all
time leading receiver this year). Still, while Mathis would make an extremely
effective # 2 receiver for most teams, he lacks the size and speed of a true #1 receiver
and is overmatched. He is good for at least 6 grabs a game, so expect to see Lyle shade
his direction in 3rd and long situations regardless. Their new slot receiver Jammi German
will most likely be matched up with Todd Lyght when he is in the game. Taje
Allen covers the receiver on the left side, which will probably be Mathis.
McCleon should be effective against Calloway, but considering Dexter's soft coverage
at the line, which makes him susceptible to crossing patterns, expect Calloway
to cross the middle on short slants (I'm wondering if Dexter is still cherry picking a bit
due to his recent hamstring injuries)
4. Now that the offensive line has shown its ability, it must become more consistent.
The Falcons still have a very formidable defensive front four. The most impressive
player last week was rookie Patrick Kerney, who platoons with Archambeau, and
is proving to be very effective.
Adam Timmerman is solid & consistent no matter who he matches up against and figures
to control Travis Hall most of the day. Tom Nutten has not killed them in pass protection
but will need some help from Gruttadauria with Shane Dronett. Chuck Smith has to be
dreading this game, even though in the midst of the first game shellacking he
reminded the Rams that they will play again. Only problem for Chuckie boy is that
Orlando will still be the guy he faces. I still smile recalling Orlando tossing Chuck
several yards back in the air on PASS protection and then going for the kill, dive
bombing him 4 yards past the line of scrimmage!
Sounds good so far doesn't it? Not really though. I'm not totally comfortable
with Fred Miller yet on the right side. I love Fred's attitude and impressive
intimidating presence on the field, and I love the fact that he is the first to
defend our guys in fights and to pick our guys up after the tackle. But his footwork
concerns me, especially if Patrick Kerney gets a lot of playing time. Kerney
is like Wistrom---quick and surprisingly strong. If you remember Haley getting an
arm up high on Miller and pushing him into Warner, you can easily see the possible
problem here. Of course, Kurt can easily see the rush coming at him, but
pressure is pressure, and disruption is as important as making the tackle.
The Falcons are coming off their best game. Defensive line coach Bill Kollar got his
troops to pick up the intensity. Their reserve defensive tackles really stepped up last
week giving the Falcons a very good rotation which should keep everyone fresh into the 4th
quarter. The Falcons defense got great pressure on Hobert & Tolliver with
blitzes and stunts, and this will be vital if they are to have any hope of stopping the
red-hot Kurt Warner & the Warner Brothers.
The surprising Rams line has held up extremely well so far---except for some blitzes from
Dick LeBeaus' 3-4, and the inside rush from Tim McDonald last week. McDonald's sack
may be significant. Ex-Ram Gerald McBurrows got himself a sack last week on a carbon copy
blitz package. After watching the 49ers film, I'm sure Rich Brooks took notice. I
don't expect to see hard hitting starting strong safety Marty Carter blitz from their
regular defensive package, but I can see a nickel that brings in McBurrows as the
5th DB on 3rd and long then sends him up the middle looking to get quick pressure on
Warner. This will break the rhythm a bit, but I believe Warner has proven he can stay calm
in the face of pressure.
The wild card is this--- when on all cylinders, the Falcons offer more 4 man rush than the
49ers. Throwing in one blitzer still leaves 6 men in coverage, which means
Warner would have to hold the ball longer till the receivers find a seam or shake free
from the coverage. Often this results into coverage sacks, which usually opens up a
plethora of bad possibilities. To avoid this the Rams running back may have to stay in to
block or look to take a quick hitting pass and make something happen after the catch.
3. Take advantage of inexperience of injured linebacking corps, but be wary:
Keith Brooking (last Rams game's leading tackler for Atlanta) will miss this game due to a
MCL injury. Jessie Tuggle is doubtful due to a left patella tendon. Their best
linebacker, Henri Crocket, has struggled so far this year with fluid buildup on his
left knee. Ruffin Hamilton (who was voted defensive MVP against Saints) came in last week
when Brooking was injured, but I believe they will mostly go with Craig Sauer, who
offers more speed on the weakside. He will be watching Rams RB's coming out of the
backfield. Rookie Jeff Kelly (5 tackles registered against Saints) will most likely
replace Tuggle. Kelly may be Tuggle's long term replacement, but he is obviously not
at Tuggle's level at this point of his career.
Looking at last week's game against the Saints-Cam Cleeland was open all during their
first drive drive. Whenever Crockett released, Cleeland found the soft spot on the
zone. The Falcons adjusted by going man and putting Craig Sauer on Cleeland,
which effectively contained him for the remainder of the game. BIG KEY HERE: I
expect them to leave Roland alone in this game, instead focusing on the Rams other
weapons. So I feel that Roland is a big key to this game. Get Roland in the soft
areas, make a couple first downs, and they need to go man against him, reopening the
middle of the field for Marshall or Amp. This will put the Falcons on their heals and put
the Rams in the drivers seat on offense for the remainder of the game .
One last thought here. Marshall Faulk had by far his best game against the Falcons.
If Marshall is 100% I believe he can have similar success in this game. If he is
not, Amp should offer similar problems for the Falcons. Holcombe & Watson both
proved to be effective in the 49ers game and should be utilized in a similar fashion this
game. I think the Rams will continue to explore the possibilities with this
versatile backfield, since defensive coordinators will try to counter the Rams prolific
passing game by playing a lot of nickel quality players (eg. Craig Sauer).
2. Focus on mental preparation to game:
The Rams proved a lot by going on road and beating the Bengals easily, even though
the game was sandwiched between the Atlanta and San Fransico games. They proved that
the coaching staff had them mentally focused for the kind of game which lends itself to a
let down. This game obviously shouldn't offer a let down, considering last year and
the success the Falcons enjoyed. But the facts are that the Rams just won an
emotional game against the 49ers, have already beaten the Falcons easily, and have
become the NFL's early season Cinderella team-so distractions are to be expected.
They will be inundated with media distractions like never before both locally in St. Louis
and nationally, as the country falls in love with the Kurt Warner the St. Louis Rams story
of 1999. In contrast, this Falcons team is pulling itself back up by their bot straps with
solid all around play and hustle and got off the snide last week against an underrated
Saints team that goes the whole 60 minutes---as all Ditka teams do. They are
motivated. The Falcons have nothing to lose at this point and will come out fired up and
just playing aggressive, smash mouth football. A Falcons win against the NFL's last
undefeated team will right their season very quickly and give them something to grow on in
their attempts in relive last year's success. But a Falcons loss will firmly put
this injured and battered former superbowl team in the "one year wonder"
category once and for all and demoralize them for the rest of this year. "Keep
in mind the most dangerous animal is a injured one."
The one thing we have not yet seen is whether they can battle back from adversity when
they are either behind or making too many mistakes (physical breakdowns, turnovers).
So far, Kurt Warner has done a unbelievable job coming back out on drives after a
mistake. Whether it be a interception, turnover or three and out series, Kurt Warner
has come out the following drive and put points on the board. All of these things
have fallen in the Rams favor so far. But still, they have not been behind in the
second half. One would have to expect some adversity at some point and how they respond
will speak volumes about this team's future success and their ability to sustain momentum
throughout the year and into the playoffs.
I don't believe lack of motivation should be a concern. And I don't feel they can be
intimidated at this point. Fortunately the frustrated Falcons have given the Rams
plenty of locker room bulletin board material in case they need extra motivation.
1. Continue exploiting NFL secondaries:
Don't fix what isn't broken. No one has come up with an effective game plan to stop
this passing attack. The Rams are open underneath, on screens, deep down the
sidelines, deep down the middle, and effective on end rounds. Instead of
rehashing what many of us already know, I can simplify all this by saying that the motion
in this offense meshes perfectly with the skills of the players. Unless injuries creep in,
this Rams offense is as difficult to stop as any offense that has played in quite some
time. The obvious question is what does a defense have to do to stop these
guys.
Not that this will happen, but I see several keys to trying to stop these guys,
which are:
* Get consistent 4 man pressure on 1st & 2nd downs. Run a lot of line stunts,
changing the passing lanes for Warner, which limits areas of the field.
* Shadow Faulk at all times with one extremely talented defensive player who has both
speed and sure tackling abilities. Those are not easy to find---there are only so many
Mark Fields in the NFL. Think of how silly Faulk made Farrior & Lewis look in
pass coverage in the Ravens game (and they re stud LBs).
* Shade the FS towards Ike. I don't believe ANYONE (listening Deion ?) can cover
Isaac one on one the way he is playing this year. His speed out of his cuts is JAW
DROPPING and his hands are as sure as those of any of the the elites, like Cris
Carter.
* Put a shut down CB on Torry Holt. I would play my # 1 CB against Holt and double Isaac
with my 2nd CB and FS. * Hope I had someone with Dre Bly's abilities to try and hang with
Hakim or Proehl. Someone who has the hips to turn on a dime and the confidence and
swagger of a # 1 guy.
* Jam the receivers off the line, which means taking gambles, especially when the receiver
is in motion. To jame a receiver in motion they need to track him across the line and time
their break and the snap count and then throw their bodies in front while maintaining
balance and turning their hips and tracking the play. This would throw off the offensive
rhythm, pressuring Warner to force the ball in, and it will frustrate whoever catches the
ball, since they will be pressured to make the 1st down after the catch.
Would this work? Who knows. Very astute defensive coordinators around the league haven't
figured it out yet and there is no reason to think I can. One thing is for sure---it
will take an extremely fast defense with talent at every position and an attack mentality
(and not one that just "plays defensive").
PREDICTION TIME:
I am 4-0 (like the Rams!) in my predictions so far.
This week I see the Falcons fighting hard and letting it all hang out. Their injuries will
be too much to overcome, however, and it's not hard to imagine the Rams finishing
this game with a -3 turnover rate and still pulling it out with their ability to score so
quickly. Yet I really don't believe they will lose the turnover battle because
Atlanta is the team that has to take chances and throw the ball to spots on the field
instead of to open receivers. Like the first four games, it comes down to this-too
many weapons wearing the horns.
Rams 34, Falcons 17
D.K.Cox,
The Commish
APPENDIX:
Redzone stats: The Rams red zone production both offensively & defensively has been
very good. They have scored TDs on 73.3 % of their opportunities. In contrast the Falcons
have only scored TDs on 33.3 % of their opportunities in the red zone. Both teams
have done well in limiting their opponents to approximately 43 % success scoring TDs. .
The Atlanta/New Orleans game: The Saints attempted to attack Atlanta the way the Rams had
done in THEIR 1st game against the Falcons. The obvious difference was the skill
level of the players. When passing they attacked the middle of the field, with the
Saints TEs & RB's accounting for 12 of the 22 receptions. Kennison lead all WRs
with 4 catches, including a long TD when he barely got behind the secondary |
