Industry Market Analysis:
The appetite for Crude Oil worldwide is growing. In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world demand for crude oil grows from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per day in 2015 and to just over 119 million barrels per day in 2025. Much of the growth in oil consumption is projected for the emerging Asian nations, where strong economic growth results in a robust increase in oil demand. An emerging Asia (including China and India) accounts for 45 percent of the total world increase in oil use over the forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case.
Tempered by high world oil prices, growth in world petroleum demand in 2005 is expected to remain strong, while retreating somewhat from its 2004 pace. Any expectation of incremental supply tightness in non- OPEC supply or downstream refinery capacity could cause crude oil prices to increase even further. As a result, the refiner acquisition cost of imported crude oil in 2005 is expected to average more than $47 per barrel. OPEC producers may find it more challenging to maintain high oil prices over the next few years, however, given the projected increase in non-OPEC supply.
