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November 10

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MWLNOW Predictions

 MWLNOW Predictions

Update 10-25 Churchill should win out with games against Springfield and Willamette. Wouldn't it be interesting if they ended up playing Lebanon in the playoffs?  It's Thurston at Marshfield for second.  I'm sticking with Marshfield, even though it reads Thurston on paper.  Marshfield's defense has been giving up a ton of yardage and Thurston's O is well balanced and racking up a ton of yardage. It's true that  defense wins games, and normally I'd go with the Colts.  But, the game is in Coos Bay, and I'm going Pirates 22-21.  Note, a Pirate loss could set up a North at Marshfield game for the third and final playoff spot.  A Colt win ensures Thurston the second seed, as they own all of the tiebreakers and Springfield can't catch them.  North hosts Willamette. Very important for North to win as a win keeps their playoff hopes alive.  Willamette is improving rapidly and is the team of the future.  The future could begin Friday.  Churchill is averaging 38 points a game in league going into Silke to play Springfield.  Millers have lost four in a row by a touchdown or less and will pit their number one defense against Churchill's number one O.  Could be a nice game for fans, number one QB in the league - Schumacher,  versus the number one rusher - Haley.

Update 10-13 Churchill owns key tie breakers over Marshfield and Thurston.  The Lancers can suffer one loss and  still win the crown, but there is little likelihood of an upset.  The Lancers are averaging 370 yards a game on O, and that's against Marshfield and Thurston. 
Marshfield still holds on to second in my predictions, only because they have  home field advantage over Thurston in two weeks.  Pirates play Springfield this Friday at Silke.  Still waiting for the Millers to put it all together and it could be Friday night.  The Millers are giving up just 178 yards a game and came within 7 points of beating top 10 team Crater before league games started.  Thurston should handle Willamette this week at Willamette.  That'll set the stage for their trip to Coos Bay.  Even if Marshfield stumbles against Springfield, Thurston will want to beat the Pirates or the Colts lose the tie breaker. North Eugene travels to Churchill this week and then host Willamette. Willamette hosts Thurston this week. Bad timing, the Colts will be hungry after the loss to Churchill.  The following weeks game against North should be a good one.  Willamette can score. Springfield should pick up a win in their last three games.  I don't think it will be against Churchill.  So that leaves this Friday against Marshfield and the season finale against cross-town rivals Thurston.
Update 10-7 Saw the Churchill-Marshfield game.  The teams played as expected with the the Lancer's short passing game giving the Pirates fits to set up the run, while the Pirates pounded the ball with an occasional long pass tossed in. The Pirate strategy of ball control was golden, but the Lancers two picks for TD's were the difference.  I was impressed with the Lancer's team speed - especially Schumacher's long sprint to the end zone.  The small Pirate line looked beaten down at times, but with help from their DB's and LB's they held a good O to 17 points. 
I'm moving Churchill to the first spot.  With just 17 points on O, they don't look they will be a dominating team, but with another key injury to the Colts, I don't think there is any team left that can stop the Lancers.  We'll find out Friday at Silke where the Lancers will face Thurston's awesome D.
Marshfield will have to run the table to keep an undisputed lock on second.  I think they can, but they don't have players with the extra gear, so they could be vulnerable to the Colts and Highlanders.  Still, I think they will win out with three of the last four games at home.  Thurston should grab a playoff spot, but can you believe the injuries?  Even with Unress out, the Colts are deep enough to possibly win out.  We'll find out a lot when they host Churchill Friday. 
Only 9 points for North against the Colts. Even with that, I'm moving them up to fourth.  The Colts D is that good and for most MWL teams just scoring against Thurston is going to be good. Willamette scored two fourth quarter TD's to pick up their win.  Remember when I picked them for a playoff spot last summer?  If Sanchez had stayed, they would be going. Springfield saw what will probably be the defensive strategy of all MWL teams - stop Haley and you have stopped Springfield.  The Wolverines held Haley to 64 yards rushing on 22 carries and one carry was for 54 yards. The Millers needed the win against the Wolverines, the Millers are good enough to beat anyone in league.  Their best opportunity may be North.  Ironically, the game is away, Springfield's last road game before closing with three straight at Silke against Marshfield, Churchill and Thurston.

Final Pre - League Predictions Written after Week 4 Games (Oct 2)

I like the six classification format except for one issue - too few league games.  Each game becomes a playoff game, and one bad bounce can end a team's playoff  hopes because there are too few games to make up the loss.

1. Marshfield. 4-1.  Marshfield had a solid pre league performance, the only loss versus 6A Grants Pass.  Running back Andrew Simpson, Qb Rayce Staley and receiver/FG kicker Riley Staley have all performed as hoped.  Big John Parrish is coming along as a receiver in the TE position, which is pivotal to a Pirate title.  The big question before the season was the Pirate line.  You won't find any superstuds on the Pirate line, but you will find a line that works well together and gives their all.  Pirates have a favorable home field schedule.  They catch North and Thurston at home.  Their first test, though, is on the road at Churchill.  The Pirates will be down a key player for this one, and the Lancer's don't need any favors..

2. Thurston 3-2.  The Colts were my preseason pick to win the title.  Injuries have clobbered these guys, but a bye the week before league starts could be just what the doctor ordered.  You can't single out one person on the Colt O or D - Thurston is amazingly well balanced with physically fit, hard hitting players.  Tym Pearson is averaging over 8 yards a carry and Travis Newman is averaging six.  Pearson and Josh Galbreath are completing an efficient 50 per cent of their passes.  I'm picking the Colts to lose one before their finale at Marshfield.  Colts host Churchill in the second week of league play.

3. Churchill 3-2.  Huge advantage for the Lancer's as they are the only true passing team in the league.  There isn't any way to prepare against a good passing team if you can't put a passing attack on the field during practice.  Teams will probably choose to rush QB Schumacher, but that won't work every week.  Churchill has a tough schedule, but they open with Marshfield at home.  They'll have a great shot at the Pirates as the Pirates haven't faced a passing attack like Churchill's, even thought they think they have.  If the Lancer's beat the Pirates, they will own a huge tiebreaker.

4. Springfield. 2-3. Folks,  all of the Millers losses are to either a 6A team or a ranked 5A team.  Plus, the Miller's have played well and are improving.  Miles Haley is getting the feel of crossing the goal line, having 11 TD's so far.  The Miller's will be able to call on Bryce Fiedler for field goals to win the close one.  Only problem here is that teams will be stacked up on Haley.  If the Millers can figure a way to spread around the TD's, they might steal a playoff spot.  Four games at Silke!!!

5.  North Eugene 2-3.  One of my pre-season picks for a playoff spot.  Winterstein's wheels are the key  here.  Thurston and Marshfield kept him at bay last year and have a good shot at doing it again this year.  But with four non-league TD passes over 65 yards, maybe North will pass their way to a playoff spot.  The Highlanders start off by hosting Thurston.  I don't think either team will win 4 games, so whoever wins this one should get a playoff spot.

6. Willamette 1-4  The Wolverines scored 98 points in the last two games against PIL teams.  They travel to Springfield to open league play.  With a former defensive coordinator as a head coach, Willamette should be able to design a way to stop Haley.  Will the Wolverines be able to execute the design?

2006 Preseason Predictions written in July and August