It's been a couple of weeks since I returned from by vacation to NYC and Yankee stadium....eat your hearts out....and I'm getting caught up on who has transferred, who has already shredded their ACL and who is not going to turn out this August.   I'm not ready for my official pre-season ranking, but I do know that Sheldon and South are going to play for the title again this year, this time at South's house.  Mark September 30th on your calendar, and tell your son you have an out of town doctor's appointment.  Last year's game at Sheldon was a barn burner and it should be the same this year.

The tough question is, "Who the heck is going to take third?"  If you thought the league was a little soft last year, it's not going to get better.  Last years third place team, Marshfield, closed its doors 10 days early this spring as they ran out of money.  The Coos Bay district is shrinking even more and the Pirate midgets who over performed last year don't have a McClintock (a two time MWL MVP) in sight . Springfield seemed to have a great shot for the final playoff spot, but they changed coaches after a great year. Churchill should be a lot better after a year of learning the new system, and if Schumacher is back at QB and Manwill at receiver -  look out..... blah, blah, blah, you just want to know who is going to win....

South was the only team to get within 21 points of Sheldon in league play last year.  It will be the same story this year.  I'm hearing a lot of folks worrying about Sheldon's line.  Here's a secret. Start with a returning stellar QB Corey Moran (125-210, 1910 yds, 21 tds, 5 ints league), stellar receiver Alex Whipple (33 catches, 555 yds, 3 tds, currently nursing a broken foot), and stellar RB Brandon Fisher (63 carries, 305 yds),  and do you need blocking?   Whipple and Fisher are thoroughbreds with rabbits feet.  But that's no secret.  The secret is that Sheldon's coaches, lead by maestro Marty Johnson, put in their juniors and sophomores when the Irish get up by a few touchdowns.  So the unheralded backup linemen actually have a ton of experience.  If Whipple is still hobbling for the opener against Barlow, that'll put even more pressure on the Irish line to rally around returning center Jon Martz ((6-1,195).  Several receivers will need to step up to take pressure off of WR Whipple, including Brett Whyte, Aaron McVein (6' 2",10.9 100m) and Matt Arbuckle.  Irish opponents are jumping for joy that RB Brandon Jackson (6.6 yds per carry) transferred to Marist.  The loss won't allow much wiggle room for the Irish if Fisher gets injured.  If Moran gets injured, his understudy is junior Alex Besaw.  Besaw is not only capable at QB, but returns as starting safety, which helps him learn even more about the QB position.

Last year's matchup between Sheldon and South Eugene was a duel between the precision spread offense of the Irish and Irish depth versus the Axemen's precision offense, swagger and strength.  Depth won.  This year, South will again be big, quick, precise, strong and mean.  But don't underestimate the loss of their QB McLennan and WR/DB Bramow.  Players like Bramow don't come along very often.  Without him, opposing coaches don't have to focus on him on O and D.  Still, with Dan Hurwitt ( 29 catches, 414 yds) and Logan Beal (13.5 yards per catch), South can't be too worried about coach Air Miller's offense.  Beal got a few tosses in last year at QB, so expect him to be this years QB - obviously setting up an end around pass back to former receiver Beal in the end zone.  Kayl Enders (over 5 yards per carry) and David Nutting (230-ouch) will steamroll most teams. While the Axemen will have to work with a QB who has limited experience, they will have all-star center Kevin Fender (260) back.   Fender,  LT Ben Jackson (235) and G/T Brenton Schmitt (230) will be three year starters.  These beef eaters averaged 241 pounds last year, I'll assume they got bigger.  Senior OT Ben Norris (230), junior TE Zach Zosel (220), ,junior Miles McGinley (230) and transfer Chad Duff (225) round out the line.  South's line should be far and away the most intimidating in the MWL this year.

My money's on Sheldon, even with the game at South, and even though South's  line should win in the trenches against the Irish.  Giving underclassmen playing time in key games has paid dividends for Sheldon for several years now, even though their starters have sacrificed smashing league and state records.  I think the Sheldon linemen will step up.  The Sheldon-South battle will be the fifth game of the season for both teams.  Both teams should have their kinks worked out, and the inexperienced skilled position players will have a lot of playing time under their belts.  The game will be just as wild as last year.  I must add that the South fans were louder than the Irish fans last year, even with the game being played at Sheldon.  An even noisier Axemen crowd at South might tip the scales to the Axemen.  (South fans should remember how shocked Marshfield was early in the the South-Pirate game last year, due in no small part to the Pirates not being ready for a big time game with a big time crowd.  A loud South crowd is critical if South is going to win versus the Irish.)

THIRD and FINAL playoff spot

Sheldon and South are locks for the first two seeds. I'll allow debate on who will go as number one.  However, third is wide open.  It might be easier to guess who is absolutely knocked out, but I think anything can happen with the remaining teams.

Shock! Springfield was the obvious number three pick on paper before their head coach moved up to the AD position.  Aren't you supposed to be both the AD and coach when you have a bunch of all-stars returning?  The coaching change opens the door for Marshfield and everyone else to have a shot.

Springfield's new coach, Joe Kanach, has five returning 2nd team MWL all-stars, and two honorable mention players.     Give me a returning center and returning QB and I'll promise a good season.  The Millers return an all-star center and two QB's who shared time last year.  Ronnie Minter returns, and just not as an all-star center, but as a 2nd team LB.  He'll be snapping to either returnees Trevor Thurn ( 27-62, 265 yds) or Matt Casey ( 34-84, 555 yds) who split time at QB last year.  These two are good athletes, and coaches don't usually split time between seniors.  Expect to see Thurn at QB and Casey catching the ball and tossing a couple of end arounds for big gainers.  Opponents won't be able to focus too much on the Miller passing game because they return junior Miles Haley (75-292 yds) as RB.  2nd teamers  DB Alonzo Carillo and DL Billy Benner (6-4, 240) return on the defense. Add all-star OLB Ben Jensen and the Millers should be able to stop all but Sheldon and South and maybe Marshfield. 

I went to the Marshfield-Roseburg playoff game last year.  I wanted to see if a bunch of small players with heart and one horse, the league MVP, had a prayer against the Roseburg machine.  It was like watching 'Rocky' or 'Rudy', except the Pirates fell a hair short.  Marshfield has absolutely nothing coming back on offense, with the QB, RB (MVP McClintock), and four all-star linemen graduating.  On D,  they have a returning 195 pound all-star DL in Vincent Mayes, and I think DB Max Thompson will be someone to watch on D and O (27 rushes, 129 yds).  But opposing coaches will probably just choose to run away from Mayes and settle for 5 yards a carry.  The wild cards are 1) Coach Wigle (and his staff), 2) 6' 3" receiver RJ Bingham (18 catches, 409 yds) and finding a QB, most likely junior Rayce Stacey,  to throw to him, and 3) Pirate line, and 4) transfer Amire Souder.  The coaches are money, but getting the ball to Bingham may be a challenge.  The Pirate line will be a flip-flop from last year in terms of size.  They'll go from midgets to big, but there was a reason these bigger guys weren't starting last year - quickness and strength.  Daniel Fox (6-5, 320) and Tele Noriega (6-3, 310) will anchor the Pirate ship.  They'll be shell shocked when they play South's machine like line in the first league game of the season.  Their response to the South game could determine the outcome of the Pirate-Springfield game four weeks later. If the new Springfield coach can continue the Millers on a roll from last year, and wizard Wigle's staff can squeeze another year out of Marshfield's shrinking student body, October 7 could be a game for the third and final playoff spot.  The game is at Marshfield, and both teams will have played South and neither will have played Sheldon.  I'll lean towards Marshfield for now.... home field advantage... but it could be two programs passing each other.  One on its way up to respectability, and the other on its way down a division if the OSAA adds a new classification.

Jerred Hughes returns as Willamette's QB (95-197, 1628 yds, 12 tds passing: 72 carries, 205 yds rushing in league).  This guy is a great athlete, and now he has experience. Too bad he lost his top six receivers to graduation.  Yikes. Hughes will be handing off to senior Mychal McGuire and junior Marcos Sanchez. The Wolverines will build their lines around returning MWL all-star senior Mario Sanchez (6-2, 300).  If you can believe last years roster, they have six linemen back listed as at least 6-3, 280, not counting Sanchez!   Little LT Nick Torres (6-4, 290) isn't even in that group. Willamette had high hopes last year, after three straight playoff  years, but after Steve Vedder got hurt they never recovered and had a rough year. But with the league down overall in 2005, and with head coach Skip Raish back for his 25th year I can't imagine that the Wolverines are going to be out of the hunt.  I'm gambling that Raish can instill the hard hitting attitude of the 2001-2003 teams and bring the Wolverines back to playoff contention.

Churchill fell on hard times last year.  But they had a new coach and a totally different offense.  I'm hoping baseball player Andrew Schumacher  ( 41-118, 702 yds) earns the QB starting position.  (Yes, baseball is my sport) He's tall and a gamer.  He was upside down in his touchdown to interception ratio last year, but did any Lancer know what a pass was until last year?  Adam Trautman will be his primary receiver.  Running back Derek Manwill (76-379 yds rushing, 18-200 yds receiving) averaged five yards per carry last year, but I hear he is a question mark as far as playing this year due to a track season injury.  Usually when your QB returns and you add a RB who has yards under his belt, the team has a good year.  Look for linemen Chris Bellitt, Doug Hendrickson and Cory Tollefson to get the passing game off the ground this year.

Thurston made the playoffs last year with a great QB, Rb and WR's.  Oops, they all graduated.  The Colts generated a lot of yardage with the pass last year and that is going to be tough to repeat.  A good place for the Colts to start building the O is with Tim McKee (28 catches, 415 yds) and Jake Wolpert (38 carries, 200 yds).  McKee will be joined in the receiving corps by seniors  Grant Nelson and Jordon Gross. These two will be working behind a line that includes seniors 2nd team all-star Austin Royce (6' 1", 225) and Travis Beckley (6' 5", 250).  On D, Wolpert returns as a 1st team linebacker.  It's always fun to watch returning LB's, especially 1st teamers.

North and Lebanon.  North will once again have a new coach.  Eric Johannsen takes over the reins at North Eugene. Hey, Highlanders, look east to Ireland and do like they do.  Get those baseball players out for football.  Pitcher Shawn Peterson (45-107, 557yds) should be at QB again, and all-state baseballer Dan Winterstein at RB (130 carries, 704 yds).  704 yards rushing in a year is a lot, and Winterstein is only going to be a junior. Get some glovemen to play receivers and you'll be like the Irish. Actually, they do have a baseballer to throw to in Andrew Stiltner.  Matt Lewis and Tim Davis and Brian Conklin round out the receiving corps  Mike Baughchereau (6-2, 270) will be the beef when the Highlanders line up against the huge Marshfield and Willamette lines.  Cody Mark (5-9, 235) will be looking up to a lot of linemen, but he won't be shoved around.

Lebanon has QB Seth Probert (40-101, 565 yds passing, 79 carries, 320 yds rushing) back, but brother Nate graduated.  His primary target may be senior Jesse Flick (20 yds per catch).  Senior teammates Andrew Holingsworth and Brent Trask will see the ball thrown their way. Get the INT to TD ratio right for this team and they move up.  Mitchell Swanson returns as a MWL all-star LB and will be trying to make his mark as a running back, too.  The line doesn't won't be humongous , but they won't be stepped over either.  Kyle Bellon (6-1, 270), Taylor Judy (6-1, 240), and Carson Kelley (6-2, 210) will hold the fate of the Warriors in their hands.

Overall, there are a lot of returning QB's. But unlike many years since 2000, their aren't many receivers.  Developing some pass blockers and receivers for these experienced QB's might be the key to making it to number three.

Playoff Picks Preseason:  
1. Sheldon - Will they recover from Barlow in time for Axemen?
                      Will streak end at Barlow or at South Eugene?
2. South Eugene - Cakewalk until Sheldon, fans will be watching the backs and
                      receivers, but if South's big, quick, tough line delivers, can you
                      spell U-P-S-E-T?
3. Marshfield - Can you go to state with just one two year letterman?  If transfer Amire Souder is eligible
                       according to the OSAA, the Pirates move from a maybe third to a lock for third.  But the
                       Pirate line will still get whipped soundly by South Eugene in week one, possibly blowing                        a fatal hole in the Pirate ship.
4. Springfield -New coach, tons of returning all-stars, program on the upswing.  Millers
                      have more talent than Pirates.  Haven't beat the Pirates since 1987, but
                      this could be the year to sail out of Coos Bay with a playoff spot.
5. Willamette - Please get back to those pad-crackin' days on D.  Raish has always felt that it takes
                        just one really good athlete at QB to get his O going.  He's got that athlete in Hughes.
6. Thurston - Only school without home field is coming off of playoff year and best
                     season in 7 years.  Four great all-star players graduated at skilled
                     positions.  Receiver McKee is the key.
7. Churchill - Maybe you can't spell upset, but can you spell S-L-E-E-P-E-R?  Oh, you
                    can, but you don't know what it means. 
8. North Eugene - New coach trying to hide Kailee Wong
9. Lebanon - Wasn't the MWL supposed to be easier than the Valley league? We got
                      ticked off when McNary beat Sheldon in the state finals in 2001.
  
  Don't agree or have an insight, correction or player information?  E-mail your comments to [email protected] 

After Week 1 Games (First week league games)

1. Sheldon - Irish play North and Thurston between their big games against Barlow and South Eugene.  Irish are happy Colt game is at Sheldon and not Silke. Will they recover from Barlow in time for Axemen?  Will streak end at Barlow or at South Eugene? 

2. South Eugene - 243 total yards on O against Silverton.  Not impressive, but the Axemen still have a cakewalk until Sheldon.   Fans will be watching the backs and receivers when SE plays Sheldon, but if South's big, quick, tough line delivers, can you spell U-P-S-E-T?

3. Willamette - Hughes gets 112 rushing and 116 passing.  His passing radar was a little off, but he gets Lebanon next week to build some confidence before hosting Marshfield  Expect a 3-0 start for Willamette.

4. Thurston -   Colts roll over Mt.View , a team ranked to finish second in IMC. Okay, it''s the IMC.  But the key is Thurston has found someone to toss the ball to McKee, and they balanced their attack with 166 yards rushing.  Next up, the Millers.  Put the Colts and Willamette in the lead for the third and final playoff spot.  Both tams are probably way too quick and strong for the Pirates and Churchill.  Colts have best schedule of teams vying for third.  Springfield, Churchill, Willamette and Marshfield at Silke.

5. Marshfield - The final score in the Crater loss was better than the play on the field, it could have been 44-7.  Two of Marshfield's scores were the result of poor Crater punt team performances.  An 80 yard return for one TD and a poor punt giving the Pirates a short field for the other.  Crater stalled out inside the Pirate 20 several times due to yellow flags.  Can Wigle develop a line in one week?  South next.

6. Churchill - Schumacher 250 yards passing with 5 td's.  Trautman snares 3 td passes.  Schumacher will start on the mound for Churchill, opposing North's Peterson Friday at Churchill. Put the Lancers in the four way race for third.

7. Springfield - Who were those guys from Arizona?  Miller players and new head coach now know what real game speed is.  Colts won't be any faster this week, but.....

8. North Eugene - Baseballers Peterson and Winterstein lead NE O. Don't read too much into the loss to Elmira.  Elmira would finish top 3 in several 4A leagues. 

9. Lebanon - Lebanon beats South Albany in battle of last years 0-9 teams . 376 yards on ground. Warriors host Willamette next.  Trevor Kilgore 162 yards in 11 carries versus Bulldogs.
     
     Don't agree or have an insight, correction or player information?  E-mail your comments to [email protected]