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I am still looking for a new weekly prognosticator.  RileyWrong has moved on.  If you would like to try your hand with weekly cleverly or not so cleverly predictions, please email me. [email protected] .
 

1. Thurston
2. Marshfield
3. North Eugene
4. Churchill
5. Springfield
6. Willamette

2. Marshfield
Positives...National coach of the year, Kent Wigle. Return two all leaguers (plus a punter). QB Rayce Stacy returns and was efficient but only completed 5 passes a game.  Junior John Parrish returns as an all league receiver.  Rayce Stacy's twin Riley caught 5 passes last year - a fun brother to brother combo to watch. There will be a lot of pressure on running back Andrew Simpson, the Pirates number three rusher last year.  After that it's rusher Shane Rose for the Pirates who got in 2 carries a game last year.  Three home games - Willamette, North Eugene and Thurston.
Questions: The Pirates graduated 8 all leaguers, all but one a 1st or 2nd teamer.  Will the newcomers jell in time for league games?
Comments:  Pirate line will be much smaller, but a lot quicker.  Key will be if quarterback Stacy learns to spread the ball around and then know who the go to guys are in crunch time.

3. North Eugene
Positives... Dan Winterstein is back (226 carries, 1146 yards)  and while his yards per carry aren't over the top, controlling the ball 30 times a game at 5 yards a pop is a good way to keep a team in a game.  Two other all leaguers return on offense, lineman Chris Hoover and receiver Scott Womack.  Womack was good for 15 yards a catch.  While North has to be concerned about developing a qb, it shouldn't be too hard to find someone to hand the ball to Winterstein 30 times and then flip to Womack after the D over adjusts.  TJ Horton is a returning all leaguer on the D line.
Questions: Smallest school in league by far, but the really big dogs have run south.  Have to find new quarterback and have only one experienced receiver -- at least he's an all leaguer.
Comments:  Thurston, Springfield and Willamette at home.  Coaches usually improve a lot over their first year and I'm guessing you'll see that at North.  The coaches learn their players, and the players learn the coach and system.  Coach Eric Johannsen will have to fix the D, but now that he has the Highlander offense going, he can spend his time defending the goal line.

4. Churchill
Positives... Quarterback Andrew Shumacher (73-169, 1,064 yards) was all league last year.  Keith Heath, who runs and catches, should put on a show this year.  Marcos Sanchez (90 carries, 471 yards, 17 catches, 214 yards) has transferred from Willamette.  Howie Fuller did well with the ball the few times he touched it last year. 
Questions: In a league without a team that is going to tear everyone up, the Lancers can grab a playoff spot if they gain some consistency.  The Lancer's have taken over Thurston's spot as the leagues most inconsistent team.  They were within 2 of the Axemen last year, but lost to Marshfield 52-14. 
Comments: Home games against Marshfield and North Eugene.  Win these two and the Lancers should be in.

5. Springfield
Positives... Miles Haley returns for his senior season (428 yards rushing, 118 receiving).  Haley was all league on both sides of the ball last year. 
Questions:  The Millers were disappointed last year,  they were 3-5 in league but that included a 13-17 loss to the Colts and a 14-16 loss to Willamette.  Can they pull out the close ones in 2006?
Comments: Three home league games.... on road to North Eugene and Thurston (short trip). If my theory that second year coaches show a lot of improvement is true, Springfield coach Joe Kanach could have a few surprises for the new league.

6. Willamette
Positives...  Find a qb and the Wolverines should have a good passing game.  The new qb will have an all leaguer to throw to in Travis Woodke, who hauled in 22 passes.  Here's the hidden gem, Willamette has two other players coming back who had 10 or more receptions, Michael Calef and Austin Barnett. Barnett returns on D as an all leaguer. 
Questions:  Willamette was dead last in D last year.  The new  coach Dan Fritz is a former D coordinator so there should be a lot of focus on D during practice. 
Comments:  The MWL isn't kind to new head coaches.  Head coach Fritz has a little advantage over the typical new head coach as he is moving up and is familiar with the players. Two league home games - Thurston and Churchill ..

1. Thurston
2. Willamette with Sanchez
3. North Eugene
4. Marshfield
5. Churchill
6. Springfield

Last year I wrote my summertime predictions while watching the Yankees in New York, this years thoughts are from Italy, whose Romans won the real Super Bowl of football.

If Sheldon and South were still with us, I'd be pegging the Axemen  as clear preseason favorites for a MWL title.  Sheldon graduated everyone and the Axemen return six all leaguers including their QB Beal, receivers Zozel, Marshall and exciting running back Tobar.  But now the two teams will be the smallest schools in the new SouthWest conference.  What's west about that league?

Tidbits.... Pirate coach Kent Wigle has 18 MWL seasons under his belt.  The other five Midwestern league coaches have a combined 7 years of MWL experience.....  Thurston coach Justin Starck is second in tenure with three years of MWL experience.  Starck earned his first playoff win in just his third season as a MWL coach, faster than Marty Johnson, Kent Wigle, Floyd Halverson, Skip Raish and Chris Miller......Quarterback experience is also thin this year. Only Lancer Shumacher and Pirate Rayce Staley (twin Riley is a receiver) have thrown 10 or more passes a game.  The other four teams are lucky if they have someone who threw 10 varsity passes all season....Dominant rushers and receivers are also hard to find.  North's Winterstein returns as a 1,000 yard rusher, his numbers being gained by carrying the ball nearly twice as often as the second leading rusher in the league last year rather than the 8 or 9 yards per carry Churchill's old double wing used to generate.  Willamette's Sanchez and Springfield's Haley are the only other rushers with more than 6 carries per game.  While Winterstein, Sanchez and Haley look to be the stud runners for next season, they only averaged 5 yards of dust (oops, rubber pellets) per carry.  Look for Thurston's Travis Newman to be the leagues most explosive back.....NO receivers return who caught at least three passes per game last year, combine that with only two experienced quarterbacks returning and that means.....I don't know..... Springfield in the largest school is the new district, with Willamette and Thurston not far behind.  Churchill is the fourth largest with 88 per cent of the students that Springfield has, Marshfield checks in at 75 per cent of Springfield and North at 61 per cent of Springfield.

Unofficial pre-season predictions..  Usual July disclaimer.....  I don't know who has transferred, dropped football for another sport or blown out their ACL, but here are my thoughts based on last years efforts, coaching changes, etc.

1. Coaching experience counts.   As pointed out in the tidbits, even the leagues' best coaches have taken a few years to get their program on a roll.  However,  Thurston's Justin Starck has not only garnered his first playoff win in just three years, but has gone 13-5 in regular season the last two years.  The Colts have two returning all league linebackers in Chris Cassell and Travis Newman.  Add in another all league defensive player, lineman Levi Binford and the Colts should pick up where they left off in league - a 21-0 win over Marshfield.  Newman could be the most exciting back in the league, he didn't get the ball a lot last year in Thurston's whose-got-the-ball offense, but when he got it he averaged over 7 yards a carry.  While the Colts have to find a new QB, they have the kind of offense where a good athlete can play QB and have a great year, rather than having to learn a pro style offense and then develop perfect timing with each receiver.  Cassell and Michael Akins averaged over 18 yards per catch last year, so whoever takes over at QB won't have to focus on one guy. The Colts might have the toughest schedule with only two home league games and on the road games versus North, Willamette and Marshfield.

2. If Raish were back, I'd push Willamette to number one, but the Wolverines have a new coach and that makes things iffy.  The good news here is that new coach Dan Fritz was on the staff last year, so there won't be as many getting-to-know-each-other hurdles as new coaches usually have.  Nevertheless, last year I had Springfield at 4th last year, and a possible playoff team, in spite of bringing in a new coach. As history shows, the MWL is not kind to new coaches.  So why jinx the new coach?  Well, the Wolverines are returning several horses in a league with not much depth.  The Wolverines return the most all-leaguer's on offense of any MWL team.  Start with running back Marcos Sanchez (90 carries, 471 yards, 17 catches, 214 yards).  Willamette's new qb should be happy handing off and passing to Sanchez, but their is more.... the qb has another all leaguer to throw to in Travis Woodke, who hauled in 22 passes.  Here's the hidden gem, Willamette has two other players coming back who had 10 or more receptions, Michael Calef and Austin Barnett.  (Especially good if Woodke becomes the new QB and is pulled out of the receiving corps) If the new coach can convince the new qb to eat it or toss it out of bounds rather than INT it, Willamette should roll.  Possible problem....Willamette was dead last in D last year, something former defensive coordinator Fritz will certainly address.  Austin Barnett returns on D as an all leaguer. Two league home games - Thurston and Churchill ....Rumor of Sanchez transferring to Churchill.  That would change things a lot at Willamette.  Obviously, Sanchez would help Churchill, but the only major impact a football player has had on a program this decade is McLennan at South.

3.  Tough call here.  Any of the next four teams could step up.  Lancers have the only prolific qb returning....  Marshfield doesn't have much returning, was lacking in success at the frosh/JV level, but coach Wigle has been there before.....  Highlanders have a great running back.....  Springfield beat Churchill and North during the last three weeks of the season last year.  I'm going with North Eugene.  Dan Winterstein is back (226 carries, 1146 yards)  and while his yards per carry aren't over the top, controlling the ball 30 times a game at 5 yards a pop is a good way to keep a team in a game.  Coaches usually improve a lot over their first year and I'm guessing you'll see that at North.  The coaches learn their players, and the players learn the coach and system.  Coach Eric Johannsen will have to fix the D, but now that he has the Highlander offense going, he can spend his time defending the goal line.  Two other all leaguers return on offense, lineman Chris Hoover and receiver Scott Womack.  Womack was good for 15 yards a catch.  While Johannsen has to be concerned about developing a qb, it shouldn't be too hard to find someone to hand the ball to Winterstein 30 times and then flip to Womack after the D over adjusts.  TJ Horton is a returning all leaguer on the D line. Thurston, Springfield and Willamette at home.

4.  Marshfield won't have much experience.  The Pirates graduated 8 all leaguers, all but one a 1st or 2nd teamer.  They return two all leaguers (plus a punter). QB Rayce Stacy returns and was efficient but only completed 5 passes a game.  Junior John Parrish returns as an all league receiver.  Rayce Stacy's twin Riley caught 5 passes last year - a fun brother to brother combo to watch. There will be a lot of pressure on running back Andrew Simpson, the Pirates number three rusher last year.  After that it's rusher Shane Rose for the Pirates who got in 2 carries a game last year.  Three home games - Willamette, North Eugene and Thurston.

5.  I don't think I have ever ranked a team with far and away the leagues best qb this low.  But Churchill quarterback Andrew Shumacher (73-169, 1,064 yards) is their only all leaguer returning.  I think Keith Heath, who runs and catches, will put on a show this year.  Howie Fuller did well with the ball the few times he touched it last year.  The Lancer's have taken over Thurston's spot as the leagues most inconsistent team.  They were within 2 of the Axemen last year, but lost to Marshfield 52-14.  Home games against Marshfield and North Eugene.  Win these two and the Lancers should be in.

6.  If my theory that second year coaches show a lot of improvement is true, Springfield coach Joe Kanach could have a few surprises for the new league.  The Millers were disappointed last year,  they were 3-5 in league but that included a 13-17 loss to the Colts and a 14-16 loss to Willamette.  Miles Haley returns for his senior season (428 yards rushing, 118 receiving).  Haley was all league on both sides of the ball last year.  Three home league games.... on road to North Eugene and Thurston (short trip).  I love the fact that season ending rivalry games return.  Springfield versus Thurston could be for a playoff spot and seeding for  both teams.  (Churchill -Willamette should be a good season ending rivalry based on where the schools are located, and if Sanchez does transfer from Willamette to Churchill.....  North-Marshfield not so much of a rivalry, although I can tell you some great basketball  stories about the schools.  These are the two smallest schools in the league, by far.  Could they be slugging it out for the final playoff spot on the last day of regular season?)

With so many young coaches and so few returning starters, this year should be a wild one to watch.  Each team will have four or five games to develop their new players prior to league games.  A lot will depend on the coaches ability to develop the players, but with no superstuds like Kailee Wong in the league this year to dominate every play, it will be the team that has the players who have the most desire and who are willing to work the hardest that will prosper.

Don't agree?  Do you have some new information?  Comments, corrections, additions,& news are  welcome.  Just email Gary at [email protected]  

Good Luck to everyone!

Gary Haliski