Without doubt George Bush senior should have finished off Saddam Hussein during the Gulf War. Let us put this down to weaknesses and naivety in US foreign policy since the end of World War II.
I am sure Hussein can be toppled quickly, but whether in fact the Americans are capable of accomplishing this remains to be seen. The people of Iraq would for the most part welcome the removal of their dictatorship and this no doubt is what the US is gambling on. But a gamble it is. There will be an outcry world wide if the US goes it alone. There may well be terrorist outrages in the West, but I guess they considere that a price worth paying and a vindication for their action.
It does beg the question why Iraq. There are enough nasty little dictatorships around the world. Why Iraq then ? It is a soft touch. It will also strengthen Israel’s position in the Middle East. If the march of Islamic fundamentalism can be halted, if pro-Western Governments can be installed in the area, then surely this is a good thing. In the short term at least and it gives the US and Europe more space between what will ong term be regimes they will have to contend with, ie China and India, to name the two most powerful. Let us not forget Indonesia.
Success breeds success, but one is walking a tight-rope right now. The probability that other regimes in the area will tumble is great, to name but Kuwait and Saudi Arabia , and that however to our detriment. Many commentators have discussed the various scenarios that may present themselves on the commencement of such a war, so I will not dwell on these. I only hope the US has contingency plans to invade the oilfields of Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia at the EARLIEST opportunity, before these are torched by Hussein. If I were him I would know I had no chance against the military might of the USA. So what options do I have to go out with a bang.
I can ferment dissent within the region and within the greater Islamic world. That he is doing, principally with a carrot and stick approach. I would destroy as many oil-wells as I cam, as also lob a few war-heads with chemical weapons at Tel-Aviv.
Yet this is not Bush’s dilemma. Here I agree with Stella Rimington. The fundamental problem, that which has given rise to most of the problems, real or imagined in the mind of Muslims, is Israel. It must vacate the occupied territories, including Jerusalem. Only this may give peace a chance. And it is only the USA who has the power to force them to do so. And this power is waning by the day, particularly in the face of ‘assistance’ the Isreali secret services are giving the US at the present time.
As far as Blair is concerned, the man knows he has a more difficult task ahead of him, to be re-elected in 2-3 years time. A total failure at home, he is looking for the cudos the Falklands factor may give him. A weak man being given the mantle of strength by uncle Sam. Regrettably the British people are stupid enough to fall for this.
August 2002.
ECONOMIC DOWNTURN
We in the UK should not be complacent about the latest company collapse and other financial irregularities coming to light in the USA, coming so soon after the ENRON debacle; nor should we be ‘Schadenfroh’. Countries within the EU are facing their inevitable problems, Vivendi being a good example, as also the demise of the Kirsch empire – albeit for slightly different reasons.
The type of ‘false’ accounting that has been carried out in the USA is marginally more difficult to perpetuate here; yet I am quite sure it has taken place The probability that the City and indeed the Government will try to hush up such, however, is also greater. Not only that, but they may succeed. This is not the issue, however. It is the root causes of the matter, ie why such accounting methods were used, were able to be used and why they should have had to have been used (at least in the eyes of the people carrying them out), we should be addressing.
One cause is undoubtedly the approach to business we have adopted in recent years, free of all social conscience and unimpeded by rigorous financial and business controls, as also the lack of enforcement when rules that exist have been breached. Our Continental cousins have of recent, and only of recent, shown admiration for our ‘Anglo-Saxon’ way of doing business, referring here to the UK and the USA. By this they mean our way of doing business unfettered by many of the controls and regulations they face within the business systems they have in place. This is fuelled as always by greed. In my opinion they are indeed over-regulated, let there be no doubt about that, and they still have their own financial scandals within their lack-lustre economies. Yet a compromise between the systems has to be found in order to take the best from both worlds.
The lack of sensible regulation and, more importantly. the lack of enforcement of regulations, other than that of the most inane New Labour and Brussels gobbledegook has given rise to what I would almost describe as a gung ho Wild West way of doing business. Anything goes. Make money for your share-holders, and if you can’t, it would appear, fake it, as long as you are doing alright; at least, until the chickens come home to roost, and there are a lot of tired chickens out there right now.
We, in the western World, have all seen a steady real growth in our economies after the end of the last war, when we moved through the familiar production driven phase onto a marketing orientated system. But where to now ? We are have entered the technology/IT driven phase, where more than ever controls are needed – and this I say with great regret, as it happens; but a free market economy where we all live by our wits unimpeded by any controls ? I don’t think that can work in an ever more globalised world, where the reins of Government are effectively in the hands of multi-national corporations, whose responsibility is towards themselves and then to their shareholders.
These corporations are only as sound as those who lead them and that is another root cause of the difficulties we face now. Sound in the sense of their business efficacy coupled with, and this is a rarity in the business world, a certain social conscience.
The City of London is particularly notorious for having poor quality leadership at present. Having in an earlier incarnation been involved in recruitment and head-hunting for many leading City firms, I can only say that I have seen individuals gain positions which vastly over-remunerated them in comparison to their abilities and education. In fact, some of them I would not have employed for jobs in the post room. Yet many of these have risen to positions of power within the City and elsewhere, be they traders of physical commodities, financial instruments, derivatives etc. They in turn have perpetuated this problem by recruiting individuals of a similar inability.
I have a particular dislike for advisors and analysts. Put any three analysts in a room and they will come up with different analyses and prognoses. They have to. In the first instance they have for the most part invented themselves and have a reputation to promote. Screw the punter ! One leading City name recently moved into public service. Thank God for that, because he now has ample opportunity to demonstrate what a prat he actually is.
Another area where the lack of skill of leading players is shown is in the stock markets. Any arsehole can make money in a Bull market, which we have experienced for the last ten years or so. The current Bear market is sorting out the men from the boys. It doesn’t help investors, however, be they private or institutional. Yet whether those in the club make money or not is no longer the issue. The effect poor performance is having on our lives is – look at pension funds.
This against the background of an economy that is in serious difficulties. I have heard for so long that ours is so sound compared with many others. Nonsense. It has been fundamentally unsound for many years. Politicians and business leaders trying to talk is only a short term fix. I read with amusement headlines in most of the press stating taxes may have to rise given Brown’s generous spending plans. For a start I don’t think they are that generous, but that’s another matter. Of course taxes will have to rise and that was obvious three years ago ! The downturn in the US economy showed signs of happening then too – and let us not place too much importance on the effects of September 11th. Indeed, overall I believe it had a positive effect. Yes, taxes have risen steadily under Labour. Direct taxation and what we all like to call stealth taxes have all gone up – substantially.
What is more disturbing – and this started under Thatcher – was the delegating of collecting taxes to third parties. Let me explain. Many publicly owned companies and utilities were privatised. Some should, some should not have been, in my opinion. Be that as it may. The Tories needed money from the sale of such assets, but more importantly they wanted to disassociate themselves from the running of such businesses. After all, the miners brought down Heath’s Government and that is something they did not want to happen again. This has continued through to Labour’s approach. Rail companies can do what they will basically. They are unfettered, to all intents and purposes, by regulation which would ensure respect for the common weal. Brown does not care, as long as he can collect taxes from such companies much more easily than from individuals. Perhaps not so much from the privatised railways at the moment, indeed, we are even contributing to Virgin trains at the moment, due to the Rail-track fiasco but the principle holds. I call this inverse ( or what about perverse ) taxation. businesses, no matter in what sphere, can charge their customers what they want and give them a bad service to boot. No one cares. After all, we call this a free market economy, right ! I fully support a free market economy, by the way, but we need rules which safeguard the individual in our society. We do not have them.
I am sick to the back teeth hearing, or having heard I should say, one does not hear it so much now, that the fundamentals for our economy have been good. The economy is waiting to implode and more of this in due course.
No, the omens for the UK and indeed the USA economies are not good at the moment, but with decisive Governmental action, not just in the short, but in medium and long term, down-turns can be reversed. Sadly, as far as the UK is concerned, I cannot see boy Blair and his cronies achieving much in this respect. ‘Let me just say’…these foul, fetid, evil people ( but no, why do I speak of them in flattering terms ) quite simply have no ability.June 2002.
WHAT A RIGHT MESS - THE PRESS
It has taken the British Press a long time to appreciate the failings of this Government and come out to criticize it. Crticize it for its sleaze, its corruption, its lies, its mismanagement, its inability to fulfill the function for which it was elected - namely to govern.
The question we should ask ourselves is: Why only now ? It was so very obvious two years into Blair's previous administration, that the Government was already guilty of much of what it is being accused today, but equally obvious that it was heading further in the direction of those criticism now applied and outlined above. It was obvious then that taxes would rise, yes and even direct taxes. It was obvious then that this Government was hopelessly lost, it had not a clue what it was doing or wanted to do and, on the odd occasion that it expressed they had a policy, they had not a clue as to how to action it.
The press have much to answer for. Another irritation is the adoption of the word 'spin'. And to top it all we now have Campbell apologising for there having been too mich of it ! For 'spin', substitute at the very best, the most compasionate 'propaganda'. If Campbell and Dr Goebbels had ever served together, the latter would be looking over his should in fear of losing his job. But no, in reality, substitute lies for spin.
But the Opposition also has much to answer for, indeed, if the term Opposition is not a misnomer here.
Never in human memory has there been a Government (Blair's first administration) that laid itself so wide open to attack and criticism during the last election, with what should have been subsequent defeat at the polls. But unfortunately, never in human memory has there been an 'opposition' so feeble, so ineffective, so incompetent, so as not to bring this about. It was a sad state of affairs that the best the Tory party could muster was Just William. Then to elect Duncan Hague ( neither one thing or the other ) displays a suicidal, Lemming-like instinct which, whilst deserving of those who actually voted for him, nevertheless does no credit to the country at large and indeed to Democracy. Oh well.
CYBERSPACE - WHO'S OUT THERE ?
For a while now we have had few complaints by web-users of infringements of their liberties, of their freedom of thought and action; infringement that is by Governments and other 'authorities'.
We know the word went out within the CIA and other agencies 'if you can't beat them, joing them'. Resources were piled into telecommunications and electronic surveillance, nerds were hired etc. All this was much to the detriment of having people on the ground, a great loss of valuable intellingence, as was amply demonstrated by the event of 11th September.
But.... let us be imaginative; go on, just for fun. Let us imagine we wanted to get profiles on individuals, who may or may not prove a threat tro security. Well then, it is easy enough to intercept emails. But let us take this a step further. Why not get operatives employed by major ISPs and other. Not bad, but perhaps not too effective and risky.
OK. Again, let us imagine... well, we could buy up an ISP. After all, the CIA at least must have enough money in their slush funds to do this. But no, that's ridiculous ! Too expensive, even with market values having fallen, and still risky.
Let us be really creative. Let us imagine... we set up an ISP from scratch. It would be a great cover. OK, so we would not get all users, but we can tailor the appeal of the service to the mind-set of the kind of people we want to investigate.
Wow... better still, why not set up a real cool search engine everyone wants to use. I mean, we can see what people are interested in and, more importantly, who is interested in what we are interested in.We can drop in coockies ..... no ! This is quite ridiculous. I must be suffering from paranoia.
POOR ANNE
So Anne Winterton has been sacked for cracking a racist joke at a rugby club dinner. How ridiculous ! Just so that Duncan Hague ( neither one thing or the other ) can prove his non-racist credentials. Or was it possibly that he wanted to get rid of her anyway ? For Heaven's sake man, you should have given her a telling off and left it at that. Are you telling me that you have never made a racist joke ? We would have to ban the majority of comedians working the UK circuits, particularly those up North. Are you telling me that within the confines of the Carlton Club, the St Stephen's Constitutional Club or the Garrick no racist jokes are told ? Of course they bloody are ! The English tell them about eh Scots ( and vice versa ), the Pakistanis about the Indians ( and vice versa ), the Jews about the Gentiles... need I go on ? I tell them, if they're good jokes, and will continue to do so.