KAC 2005 FANTASY BASEBALL - THIRD BASE RANKINGS
BIG ROOKIE CLASS BEEFS UP FIELD
In the last five years, third base has quickly become perhaps the most fascinating position from a fantasy perspective. Not that there have necessarily been #1 overall candidates, or even recommended first round selections. What the position has offered however is plenty of parity, including about a half-dozen second or third round type players. Last year things heated up with Aramis Ramirez and Adrian Beltre waking up and living up to their potential, along with Alex Rodriguez joining the fray. This year the position should even be better, as a Rookie of the Year candidate from each league should spice things up even more. No less than nine third baseman drove 100 runs or more last year and that�s not even counting Troy Glaus who will achieve at least that if healthy. Each 12-team league should have at least one stud third baseman in their arsenal. If playing the CDM Challenge, you are going to have many avenues to choose from.
- Alex Rodriguez (NYY) � As was the case with Alfonso Soriano, Arod�s stats dipped somewhat in the year after the big trade, from 57 HR/142 RBI and a .623 slugging percentage in 2003, Alex was 36/106/.512 last year.. But like Soriano, Arod remains #1 at his position. What Arod did rediscover upon arriving with the Yanks was his baserunning, stealing 28 bases compared to 26 in the previous two seasons combined. Playing in Arlington did spice up his stats some, with 74 runs, 34 HR, and 82 RBI in his 57 bomb year � so you will never see that insane production again. But then again he did hit 94 HR and drive in 211 runs in a season on my Sega World Series game. Barring a Derek Jeter injury, Arod is now just strictly a third baseman.
- Scott Rolen (STL) � The first three months of 2004 Rolen was strictly money, hitting over .340 while averaging exactly one RBI per game over his first 76 contests. However a trick knee slowed him at mid-season and Rolen would only hit .276 after the All-Star break. Hitting behind Jim Edmonds and Al Pujols, a 150 RBI season is not out of the question, which makes Rolen a much more sure thing than Adrian Beltre. If there�s a downside, it�s that the knee problem will most likely cut into the dozen or so steals Rolen had been good for.
- Hank Blalock (TX) � A lot of people are all-in on Hank in season #3, seeing 40 over perhaps even 50 home run potential along with a great average. Blalock appeared well on his way towards that at mid-season last year when he was sitting at .303/23/68. However Hank would only hit .240 with 9 HR/42 RBI the rest of the way, in part slowed by a bum wrist. The Rangers got a huge scare when Blalock recently tweaked his knee working out, but an examination by the club turned out OK.
- Aramis Ramirez (CHC) � I had been down on this guy the last couple of years, but I (along with the Pittsburgh Pirates) should had realized that he was still just a pup. The real beauty with Aram is that he struck out only 62 times while hitting .318 with 36 HR/103 RBI. The Cub offense loses a couple parts from last year, but considering that Aram was dealing with a troublesome groin last year, a repeat of �04�s numbers is entirely possible.
- Adrian Beltre (SEA) � After improving from .240/23/80 to .334/48/121 in a phenomenal breakout season, Beltre�s agent compared Beltre�s first five years in the league with the likes of Eddie Matthews and other Hall of Famers while selling his clients wares. The end result was Beltre winding up in an even worse hitting park than Dodger Stadium. You have to be somewhat conservative in Beltre�s projections and expect somewhere between 30-35 HR and little over 100 RBI.
- Eric Chavez (OAK) � We�ve been waiting seemingly forever for that true breakout 40 HR campaign from Chavez, and if not for a broken hand last year we may had seen it. As is was Chavez had 29 HR/77 RBI in 125 games as opposed to 29/101 the year before. To truly get up with the other top-five third baseman, Chavez will have to hit the BA a notch higher � which has steadily stayed in the .280 range in recent years.
- Mike Lowell (FL) � There�s a bit of a dropoff after the first half-dozen on this list, but Lowell is probably the safest bet of those remaining. The last couple of seasons Lowell has done his best work pre All-Star break, hitting 48 HR/131 RBI the last two seasons (covering 180 games). Lowell tends to cool off during the dog days however, so you may want to ride his hot start and look for a suitor for a potential trade right around June 30.
- Chipper Jones (ATL) - Yes, Chipper qualifies at third again � although you can still have him in the outfield if you like. Rebounded nicely from a horrific first-half slump (.214 at the break) which I wouldn�t worry too much about, Jones is still a .304 career hitter. For the first time in a non-strike year, Jones narrowly missed out on 100 RBI � but keep in mind he did miss 25 games. Only good for about 20 steals a year, Larry rarely ever takes off running these days.
- Troy Glaus (AZ) � Troy will get Glaus-ed over this year for a couple of reasons. First is his injury history and second because he won�t appear on some third base rankings � Glaus only played the hot corner 19 times in 2004, which by one game makes him eligible at DH only under standard rules. However Glaus will have no choice to play third in the NL, so you should regain that eligibility in no time flat in most leagues. Although average has always been a bug-a-boo, (usually in the .250 range) Glaus has as much power as anyone in the position. Glaus gambled against off-season shoulder surgery following the 2003 year, which came back to backfire on him. But Troy did check out OK with a September return during the Angels playoff drive. Nine games annually in Colorado will be a plus, but not being able to DH could offset that.
- Melvin Mora (BAL) � After years of being a utility man who was eligible nearly everywhere on the Diamond, MM settled into being the best five category player at third in 2004, hitting .340 to go along with 111 runs, 27 homers, 104 RBI, and 11 steals. Mora has never been a big steal guy but the power has come gradually over the past few years. You�d like to think of last year as his career year, but you have to like the across the board production.
- Aubrey Huff (TB) � Seemed like the sophomore jinx got Audrey during the first part of last year, but hit a sizzling .331 in the second half and is good for 30 HR/100 RBI. They�re not nuts about his defense however. Also eligible at first.
- David Wright (NYM) � Hey look!!! A hot prospect that the Mets haven�t actually shipped off. Wright was considered perhaps the best pure hitter coming out of the 2001 Draft. Wright started last year hitting .363 (.467 OBP) in AA before hitting a tad under .300 with eight HR in just over a month at Tidewater before getting the call up. And then in a pretty good sampling at the show, Wright went .293/41/14/40/6 in 69 games. Wright�s probably where Scott Rolen was 3-4 years ago.
- Chone Figgins (ANH) � Also eligible at second and the outfield, Figgins should lead the field in steals among eligible third baseman � although I would use him at second and go with power at the corners.
- Casey Blake (CLE) � Even after having a decent rookie year in 2003, Blake didn�t get much hype since he was already 30 years old � but Blake had an even better 2004 with 93 runs, 28 homers, and 88 RBI. However the Tribe signed Aaron Boone, which means that Blake will have to find time at first or the outfield. Batting average is his downside, anything above .270 is a bonus.
- Garrett Atkins (COL) � Now we�re getting into the hottest rookies at any position. Atkins has been high-carb with a career .317 average in the minors � including .366 with 88 runs, 15 HR and 94 RBI at Colorado Springs last year. Atkins has nothing else to prove and Vinny Castilla is out of town, so he�s one of the surest rookies out there.
- Aaron Boone (CLE) � In 2002/2003, Aaron was one of the better five category third basemen around, hitting 50 HR and 55 RBI during that period. However the big question will be whether Aaron will be stealing after missing 2004 with the torn ACL. This will be a good player to monitor during the spring games. However Boone hasn�t carried that great a batting average over the years. Boone has a great offensive situation around him but is not without risks.
- Dallas McPherson (ANG) � Already, you are going to ante up to buy this guy�s rookie card. Was the Minor League Player of the Year hitting 40 HR and 126 RBI splitting the year between AA and AAA. McPherson went to school at the Citadel, so you know he�s disciplined. All of this makes the organizations decision to let Troy Glaus walk easy. Fortunately, CDM has his salary listed at 400 so he should be an easy steal.
- Ryan Freel (CIN) � Here�s a perfect example of why I don�t like drafting base stealers very high. Freel could have been had easily on the waiver wire, as he was stealing 37 bases between third base and the outfield. Free had a knee scope during the off-season, so you may not be able to get that type of SB production this time around.
- Corey Koskie (TOR) � It�s another slope downward from the mid-tier guys. Koskie jumped up from the 15 to 25 HR level last year, but only hit .251 and is still only good for about 70 RBI, and doesn�t steal as much as a few years ago. The native Canadian left the Twins to sign with the Blue Jays during the off-season.
- Edgardo Alfonzo (SF) � Was once considered the next Ryne Sandberg, I remember using him as a September call-up in a Diamond Challenge game in 1999 and he went 6-6 his first game. But the Fonz has become pretty well advanced in the pension plan since then. Is still good for about a dozen homers and 80 RBI. Needs Barry Bonds to be in the lineup so he can have ducks on the pond.
- Ty Wigginton (PIT) � Was much more productive in the first half (12 HR/39 RBI) than the second (5 HR/27 RBI) last year, but maybe some of that was a product of leaving New York. You should still be good for 15-20 HR, a dozen steals, and duel citizenship between second and third.
- Sean Burroughs (SD) � Should hit over .300 for years to come, but that might now mean much if Burroughs doesn�t further his development in the power department, hitting only nine home runs in his first two seasons. The RBI totals (58 and 47) aren�t much to write home about neither.
- Bill Mueller (BOS) � Not surprising fell off some after winning the AL Batting title in 2003. But when you factor in missing a third of the season due to injury, Mueller would had still projected in the 18 HR/90 RBI range. That wouldn�t be too bad late in the draft.
- Eric Hinske (TOR) � Two years ago the sky seemed to be the limit for the 2002 Rookie of the Year. Now Hinske will be moving over to first base while trying to rebound from two seasons on the dark side of .250. Duel position eligibility along with double figures in both homers and steals keep Hinske as a late round option.
- Joe Crede (CWS) � After being burned the last couple of seasons, many fantasy owners will sit this one out as far as Crede is concerned. But considering he was still good for an average of 20 HR/72 RBI during that span you may want to think again. Batting average and zero stolen bases are issues, but Crede turns that magic age of 26 this year � which could spell at least a smaller version of an Adrian Beltre-type breakout season. But first Crede is going to be in real need to level off his swing. Take a late flier and you could be in for a Crede Clearwater Revival.
- Pedro Feliz (SF) � You probably would rather want him at short, although he�s eligible at first, third, and possibly the outfield as well. 20 HR and potentially a ton of RBI opportunities behind Bonds awaits.
- Michael Cuddyer (MN) � Penciled in as the Twins third baseman although he qualifies at second as well. A quiet 20 HR/80 RBI would not be bad being eligible at those two positions.
- Juan Uribe (CWS) � If it seems like Uribe qualifies nearly everywhere it�s because he does � second, third, and short. Anywhere near his 23 home runs of last year will be absolute gravy.
- Vinny Castilla (WSH) � The 2004 NL RBI Champ has been nothing short of ordinary outside of Coors Field in his career, but how about this shocker: 21 of Castilla�s 35 2004 home runs CAME ON THE ROAD. But those homers came at a price, only hitting .218 in those games � for that average you might as well have Russell Branyan. Also only hit .232 in 543 AB�s back in 2002. I would settle for anywhere close to his 2003 #�s with the Braves (.277/22/76) but he won�t have nearly that amount of lineup protection in DC.
- David Bell (PHI) � In his last two full seasons, Bell has checked in at around the 20 HR/70 RBI mark. The problem is Placido Polanco is going to get his AB�s somewhere, and if he doesn�t get them from Chase Utley from second he will definitely get them from Bell at third.
- Morgan Ensberg (HOU) � One of the major disappointments from 2004, Ensberg didn�t even get on the board as far as home runs are concerned until well into June. And that was after hitting 25 the year before. By that time Mike Lamb was producing better numbers and taking a major dent away from Morgan�s playing time. The company line is that the job is again Ensberg�s to lose, but considering that Morgan hits from the right side and Lamb is a lefty � it wouldn�t take much for Ensberg to find himself on the bench again.
- Keith Ginter (OAK) � Split time between second and third with the Brewers, but AB�s at third will be hard to come by with Chavez around and Durazo at DH. Ginter is going to need to be an everyday second baseman to be productive fantasy wise.
- Brandon Inge (DET) � Now Detroit�s everyday third baseman, but also qualifies at catcher where he carries more value. You have to hope for last year�s .287 instead of his .202 and .203 efforts of previous years.
- Felipe Lopez (CIN) � Also eligible at short, where he will take over every day from Barry Larkin this coming season. 15 HR/75 RBI are very real possibilities, but batting average and plate discipline are issues.
- Rob Mackowiak (PIT) � Best remembered last year for going absolutely nuts in a weekend series against his hometown Cubs, and doing it while going without sleep for about three days after the Mrs. gave birth. Wound up with 17 HR/75 RBI on the year but will have to deal with being a utility man (3B/OF) again in 2005.
- Joe Randa (CIN) � Has never had more than 15 HR power (and that is very recently) and now has to fight for playing time between Lopez and Ryan Freel. Someone reliable to pick up off the waiver wire in a spot situation, but nothing more.
- Wes Helms (MIL) � The Expos two-year experiment of playing home games in Puerto Rico ended one year too late for Helms, who messed up his knee on a wet ramp when the Brewers had the misfortune of playing a three game series there last year. That capped a very forgettable year for Helms, who somehow only managed four home runs the entire season. Wes did have 23 HR/67 RBI the year before, so he does deserve consideration.
- Mike Lamb (HOU) � If you doubled his production from 278 AB�s last year you would have 28 HR and 116 RBI�s which would easily put him in the top 15 at the position. However Morgan Ensberg is still around so barring a trade Lamb remains out on the lamb.
- Scott Spiezio (SEA) � Still eligible at third as well as short. Best to hope for is 15-20 HR�s and a halfway decent batting average, unlike last years .215.
- Russell Branyan (MIL) � The third base rankings close with someone who has always had 40 home run plus potential. The problem is Russ strikes out a staggering 43 percent of the time. However the Brewers desperately need power and the third base position is open. This is perhaps Branyan�s last chance to stick in the show instead of merely being a minor league home run legend.
DON'T DRAFT: Tony Batista - Despite hitting 32 HR/110 RBI along with 14 SB's last year you won't see Batista on any lists for a good reason - he has signed a 2 year/$15 million pact with a Japanese League team.
