2003 FANTASY BASEBALL - SHORTSTOP RANKINGS
Can anyone else join Miggy with the 'Big Four'...
It appeared that Miguel Tejada would never get a break in trying to break the American League All-Star roster, at least as a shortstop. Playing in the same circuit as an all-time great (Alex Rodriguez), along with two immensely popular icons located in major markets (Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra) � it appeared that attrition involving at least one, or even two of big three was going to be needed to ever get Miggy a sniff of an All-Star atmosphere.
In 2002, American League All-Star manager Joe Torre decided to get it right � not only inviting Arod, Jeter, and Nomar to the show, but also finding room for Tejada along with forever underrated Omar Vizquel. All of this probably came at the expense of a couple of outfielders, but the American League is as shorthanded with elite outfielders as it is flooded at the shortstop position.
Funny thing was, Tejada not only turned the �big three� into the �big four�, but outperformed everyone in the Junior Curcuit with the exception of Arod � then was given the AL�s MVP award based on helping his team to a division title, while Arod toiled with a last place team.
It is a fascinating time indeed with four of the best shortstops of all-time now entering the wheelhouse of their careers, all establishing their eye-popping numbers in a variety of ways. And don�t be surprised if a few others jump into the fray this year. The shortstop rundown is as follows�
- Alex Rodriguez (TX) � The question will forever be asked if Arod selfishly threw away his chance of being on a champion in Seattle by taking the money en route to Texas. What can be answered for sure is that it did help Arod become even more of a statistical monster. A recent Sporting News article ranked the Ballpark in Arlington as the second best offensive venue in baseball, behind Coors Field and above the bandbox in Houston. Arod followed up �01�s epic numbers of .318/133/52/135 with a .300/125/57/142 campaign last year. Anyone for 60 HR/150 RBI??? Another plus is playing in all 324 games the past two seasons, no easy task in the mid-summer heat of Arlington. One thing that has disappeared with Arod in recent years is the running game, as he swiped only nine bases last year. The departure of Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez�s frequent DL trips, and advancing age of Rafael Palmeiro could also cause Arod to be pitched around much more often this year. But also keep in mind that Arod does not turn 28 until this summer, and with 298 career home runs already in tow could become a real threat to become baseball�s all-time home run king as soon as a decade from now.
- Miguel Tejada (OAK) � Like Arod, has also not missed a game since 2000. Numbers have been remarkably consistent (30+ HR, 100+ runs, 100+ RBI) the past three years, although Miggy stepped it up another level to two areas in �02 � increasing the RBI�s from 113 to 131 along with bringing the BA up to .308, up from previous levels of .251, .275, and .267. Turns 27 in May, so also approaching his peak.
- Nomar Garciaparra (BOS) � The oldest of the Big Four, Nomar turns 30 during the season. RBI wise, Nomar actually improved from his last pre-injury campaign, driving in 120 runs along with 101 runs, 24 HR, and a .310 BA. The batting average was actually down from .372 in �00, and is a career .328 hitter. With the exception of �01 has topped 100 runs every year since �97 and has also driven in 96 runs in each of those season. Home runs have settled in the 20-25 range after hitting 65 in �97-�98 combined, and has also only stolen ten bases since 2000, after averaging 16 per year from �97-�99. However, those are very small concerns.
- Derek Jeter (NYY) � Got embroiled in an off-season controversy with owner George Steinbrenner during the offseason, with the Boss alleging that Jeter has been staying out too late during the season. On those rare occasions where the Yanks fall short of their annual goal of winning it all, George would find fault with Christ himself if he happened to be on the roster. As it stands now, Jeter is as rock solid as they come. In an age where stolen bases have become a very rare commodity, Derek is one sure thing in that department as he�s swiped a remarkable 81 of 91 (89%) bases over the past three seasons. The rest of Jeter�s stats have been well established in the 120 run, 20 HR, 70 RBI range along with a .317 career average. And by the way, Derek has been participating in all the team�s off-season workouts.
- Edgar Renteria (STL) � The NL crop of shortstops are far less impressive, with Renteria getting a slight nod as the best of the bunch. Yet another player who decided to cut down on stealing bases in recent years, only collecting 60 SB�s since 2000 after 110 between 1997-99. However, Edgar�s power has gone up accordingly with 48 HR�s since 1999, after only 12 in his first three big league seasons. Attained career highs last year in RBI (83), OBP (.365), slugging (.439), and OPS (.803). .305 batting average was the highest since rookie season of 1996. Also puts the ball in play, only 57 strikeouts in nearly 600 plate appearances last year.
- Jose Hernandez (COL) � Lost in his near record 188 strikeouts was the fact that Hernandez still managed to hit .288 � which meant he was .448 when putting the ball in play. That just goes to illustrate what Hernandez is capable of doing if he can just cut down the K�s marginally. Statistically, hitters strike out less in Coors Field, which should bode very well for Jose, who managed 24 home runs and 73 RBI in Milwaukee last year. The thin air of Colorado turned one-time Brewer reject Dante Bichette into a fantasy star, so Jose should be a nice find this year.
- Rich Aurilia (SF) � Missed a month of last season and saw a drastic across the board drop from .324/114/37/97 to .257/76/15/61. However teammate Jeff Kent recovered from a similar drop last year, so split the difference between �01 and �02 for a conservative estimate.
- Jose Valentin (CWS) � Discussed in more detail in the third base rankings, Valentin played 50 games at short last year and probably more this year with Royce Clayton out of the picture. A solid bet for 75 runs, 25 HR, and 75 RBI � but expect a BA in only the .250 range.
- Chris Woodward (TOR) � Was handed the Jays starting SS job midway through last season, and responded with huge #�s of .276/48/13/45 in just 312 AB�s. Has 74 runs, 18 HR, and 66 RBI (but only a .244 BA) in 505 career AB�s over three seasons � a decent statistical sampling. Possible problem comes in the form of veteran acquisition Mike Bordick, who could steal playing time if Woody hits a slump.
- Orlando Cabrera (MTL) � Power numbers dropped drastically from 14 HR/96 RBI in 2001 to 7/56 last year. However has stolen 44 bases since �01, after only 13 SB�s in his first 314 MLB games. BA usually falls in the .260/.270 range.
- Jimmy Rollins (PHI) - The law of diminishing returns on steals applies here as well. 46 in his rookie year in '01, just 31 last year. Batting average also dropped from .274 to .245, mainly due to playing hurt much of the year. You can look for 90+ runs and some surprising pop (25 HR the past two seasons.

- Rafael Furcal (ATL) � Will this be another one who stops stealing as his arbitration/big contract years approach??? Stole 62 bases in his first 210 MLB games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury midway through 2001. Returned and played in 154 games last year, but with only 27 steals. Did score 95 runs, but with only eight homers, 47 RBI, and a .275 average.
- Omar Vizquel (CLE) � At age 35 doesn�t steal as much (18 SB�s last year) as in the past, but has muscled up attaining career highs in home runs (14) and RBI�s (72). Don�t be surprised to see Omar become trade bait at some point during the season with Cleveland in the middle of a rebuilding project.
- David Eckstein (ANH) � Best known during the regular season last year for his grand slams (led MLB with three, including a pair on consecutive days), 5�8� 170 lb sparkplug actually more valuable with his feet, with 50 SB�s over the past two seasons, along with 107 runs last year. Actually wound up with only eight home runs, but with 63 RBI and a .293 BA. Hit .294 in the post-season (.294), but with no homers and only six RBI.
- Cristian Guzman (MN) - Yet another one whose stolen bases are declining, dropping from 53 in 2000-01 to just 12 (caught 13 times) last year. BA also fell from .302 to .273. Look for 80 plus runs and some steals, but not much improvement in the way of power (9 HR/59 RBI last year).
- Alex Gonzalez (CHC) � Do not confuse with another Alex Gonzalez who plays short for Florida. Has averaged a solid 16 HR and 69 RBI the past three seasons, but is only a .245 career hitter.
- Melvin Mora (BAL) � Sees most of his time in the outfield, but qualifies here with 41 games at short last year. Underrated four-category performercareer highs in most offensive categories in �02 including runs (86), home runs (19), RBI (64) and stolen bases (16). However Mora only hit .233 and is a .249 lifetime hitter.
- Tony Womack (AZ) � Still a decent base stealer, with 29 SB�s last year, although he stole a mind-boggling 190 between 1997-99. Also scored 90 runs along with five HR and 57 RBI. Average consistently in the .270 range.
- Julio Lugo (HOU) � Numbers should be good if he plays even close to full-time at the Crooked E. Only hit .261, but with 45 runs, eight homers, 35 RBI, and nine SB�s in 88 games in �02 before succumbing to a broken arm. Will still have to contend with veteran Jose Vizciano and perennial prospect Adam Everett.
- Felipe Lopez (CIN) � Probably the best emerging prospect at the position this year. Only hit .227 in 85 games with Toronto last year, but had 35 runs, eight homers and 34 RBI. Should get regular playing time over aging, injury prone Barry Larkin sooner rather than later.
- Carlos Guillen (SEA) � Seems to be falling short from the stardom predicted from him a few years back. Had a great April driving in 18 runs, but would only finish with 56 in 133 games. Not a force in either HR�s (nine last year) or stolen bases (four). BA falls consistantly in the .260 range.
- Andy Fox (FL) � Destroyed his previous career high in stolen bases (14) with 31 in just 133 games last year. Expect that to become an anomaly however as Fox should once again become a utility man with the other Alex Gonzalez returning from injury.
- Royce Clayton (MIL) - In Brewerland he passes as a major signing. However Royce is just a .258 career hitter and his 30 steal days from the Giants (1996-97) are long gone. And don't look for much in the power department, his career high in home runs is 14.
- Barry Larkin (CIN) - Actually played in 145 games and still occasionally a factor (13 steals) on the base paths. But is coming off a .245 season and turns 40 in April, so Barry will most likely be passing the torch off to F. Lopez at some point this season.
- Jose Uribe (COL) - Rockie hitters always attract interest, but Uribe hit .191 between May and August of '02 and was a .195 hitter on the road. Also finished in single-figures in both home runs (six) and steals (nine). Jose Hernandez at short and Jeff Baker at third may end up being the best option for this team.