KAC 2005 FANTASY BASEBALL - SHORTSTOP RANKINGS
TEJADA IS THE NEW IRONMAN
The days of the trilateral commission and the fad four are finally dead. In recent years, the story of the shortstop position had been the same. If you wanted Arod, Jeter, or Nomar you better jump early � as in the first two rounds. Maybe you could still snap up Miguel Tejada a round later, but it was slim pickings after that. And NL-only fantasy leagues were resorted to listing not-ready-for-prime-time players such as Edgar Renteria and Rafael Furcal at the top of their lists. But the supply is finally getting better. Arod may have left for third base while Nomar has slipped some, but Tejada has taken the mantle of the top spot, while the likes of Renteria and Furcal, along with Michael Young, Jimmy Rollins, and Orland Cabrera have taken their spots among the elite. Outside of Tejada, there are not a lot of superstar numbers � what you do have however is plenty of youth among players who will be filling up stat sheets for years to come.
- Miguel Tejada (BAL) � Hit perhaps the quietest 150 RBI in history � and not unlike someone who wins in poker it didn't take long for some (Canseco) to accuse him of cheating along the way. Before thinking that Tejada is an overnight sensation consider the following, in the last five years Tejada has driven in at least 100 runs, has scored at least 98 runs, and has averaged 30 HR per season. However the most impressive number with Miguel is appearing in all 162 games over the past four seasons, bringing back visions of another one-time Oriole shortstop and also strikes out very infrequently for a power hitter. At age 28 Tejada is now at his peak and easily merits a first round selection.
- Derek Jeter (NYY) � Do you know that Jeter was the #6 overall pick by the Yankees in 1992??? Never thought the Yankees were ever bad enough to draft #6 overall � but at least Jeter worked out better than Brien Taylor. Made the Drudge Report last April, and that usually is not good. In 2004 that either meant you were hanging out with John Kerry or you just busted out of a 0-31 slump. But even with that rotten April included, Jeter actually had one of his better seasons hitting .292 while going over 20 HR and 20 stolen bases in the same campaign for the first time. Had it not been for missing the first quarter of the 2003 season, Jeter would had easily gone over 100 runs for nine straight seasons and is also a .315 career hitter. After Tejada, Jeter is your most reliable option.
- Edgar Renteria (BOS) � I should mention right now that I don�t see a whole lot of difference between #�s 3 and 9 on this list. Feel free to rank them to suit your own needs. After seeing his stolen base production cut in half last year from 34 to 17, it is feared that Edgar�s move to Boston may stunt that total even more. However the rest of Edgar�s totals should spike playing around a great lineup at Fenway. Has never been a great home run hitter, finishing between 10 and 16 in that department over the last six years. However I wouldn�t be surprised to see him hit 20 out this year, along with triple-digits in runs and RBI. In other words, just think of Edgar as you would Nomar Garciaparra in past years.
- Michael Young (TX) � It isn�t like Young hits a ton of homers or steals, what you do get is a ton of at-bats (666 and 690 the last two years), which makes his .300+ batting average even more valuable. You also get a ton of runs scored with a powerful lineup behind him. The only problem is that Young will not be flying under the radar anymore.
- Orlando Cabrera (ANG) � Has never been a big home run hitter (17 career high) but has stolen 20-25 bases when he hasn�t been hurt the last few years. As is the case with Renteria and Young, Cabrera will benefit from being in an offensively heavy American League lineup.
- Jimmy Rollins (PHI) � Doesn�t steal nearly as much as he did when he broke in (46 in 2001, 50 the last two years combined), but has improved in plate discipline (strikeouts down from 113 to 73 last year) as well as batting average (.289 from .245 two years ago). Rollins scored a ton of runs (119) last year and will now also benefit from not having Larry Bowa breathe down his neck every 15 minutes.
- Rafael Furcal (ATL) � Various brushes with the law, hanging out at the Gold Club, and lying about his age have overshadowed Furcal�s on-field accomplishments of the past few years. Like Rollins, Furcal has cut down his strikeouts while adding some power (29 HR the last two years) and is consistently good for 25-30 steals per year. However Furcal is one legal misstep away from being in some serious trouble.
- Nomar Garciaparra (CHC) � Let me get this straight, Lance Berkman does in his knee at a church athletic function and gets a pass. Rocco Baldelli completely totals his knee playing ball with his kid brother and doesn�t catch flack. And even Aaron Boone didn�t catch too much heat for getting injured in a pick-up hoops game. Yet Nomar reportedly hurts his Achilles kicking a soccer ball around and he gets ex-communicated by all of Boston. About the only fault I can find with Nomar is that (not unlike his wife) he has been a reluctant/complex star over the years. Now Nomar is with the Cubs where he can be vilified, crucified, and burned in effigy even more. Yes, injuries are an issue � just remember that Nomar is a .322 career hitter who drove in 120 runs as recently as three years ago and has score 100+ runs six times in his career. If there�s ever a chance to get Nomar cheap, this is the year.
- Carlos Guillen (DET) � Guillen comes after the others on this list since he is questionable for opening day following ACL surgery. That said, Guillen had a career year in 2004 developing power-wise with 20 HR, and would had gone well over 100 runs and 100 RBI if not for the September injury. Don�t count on many SB�s, but Guillen could still be a steal this year due to the injury.
- Khahil Greene (SD) � One of the top two rookie stars at the position, Khahil drew immediate raves around baseball with his defense. But the offense caught up later on in the season, going .293/11/35 in his final 55 games � multiply that over an entire season and you definitely have a top-five shortstop. Khahil has not been always highly regarded, being undrafted out of high school and a 14th round choice as late as after his college junior season. However Greene blew up as a senior and wound up being the Padres first-round draft choice.
- Juan Uribe (CWS) � After the top ten there is a dropoff, but Uribe is the best bet after that due to (a) hitting 23 HR�s last year and (b) also being eligible at second and third base. Yet it is a short where Uribe has the best value these days.
- Bobby Crosby (OAK) � 2004 AL Rookie of the year only hit .208 after the All-Star break, but did hit 22 home runs. The book on him right now is to get him with down and away sliders. Expect both the average and power to improve, Crosby hit over .300 in AAA the year before with 22 HR/90 RBI. Crosby appears to be on the right track towards becoming a top-ten shortstop.
- B.J. Upton (TB) � The #2 overall draft pick from three years ago should be an opening day starter this year at age 20, but don�t expect him to be a LeBron James-like immediate superstar. He will get there down the road, on the scouting scale of 20-80, Upton�s bat speed ranks as a 70 and his running is a perfect 80. In 69 games last year Upton hit over .300 with 12 HR/17 SB before getting 45 games of valuable major league experience (.258/19/4/12/4). The big problem with Upton is his defense, making a professional-high 56 errors two years ago. There is talk of moving Upton to the outfield or third base. Younger brother Justin is also highly regarded and is considered a top pick in this year�s amateur draft.
- Kazuo Matsui (NYM) � It started off so well. On the first regular season MLB pitch he ever saw, Kaz took a Russ Ortiz offering clear over the center field wall. By the end of the night Kaz was billed as the next Ichiro after a perfect 3-3 night. However the rest of the year didn�t nearly go well, and seven HR and 14 SB in 460 AB�s were a major disappointment to a player who was strong in all five categories in the Japanese League. Like the other Matsui in New York, Kaz has a chance to get better in year two and improve in the power/speed categories. Is also expected to start the year at second base.
- Angel Berroa (KC) � After a breakout 2003 season, Berroa in a microcosm represented the Royals �04 freefall. By the end of the first week Angel was in a hospital receiving a spinal tap and later on in the season Berroa was even sent to the minors to regain his htting stroke. A strong September (.321/20/2/10/4) provide a hint at a comeback this year. Could be a nice bargain.
- Pedro Feliz (SF) � Yes he�s available here too. The 25 HR/90 RBI potential earns him more value here than at first or third.
- Omar Infante (DET) � Qualifies at shortstop as well as second, appearing at SS in 23 games last year. 16 home runs and 13 steals last year, and at just age 23 that should get better.
- Julio Lugo (TB) � My name is Lugo � I live on the second floor. Actually this was a nice scrap heap pickup by the Rays a couple years back after the Astros tired of some legal problems. Not a home run hitter, but delivered 41 doubles last year along with 21 steals. If you�re lucky you should get double figures in both the homer and steal departments.
- Clint Barmes (COL) � You could get some nice five category production from the Rockies rookie, who hit .328 with 16 HR, 20 steals and 104 runs at AAA last year. Colorado isn�t too crazy about Barmes defense, so playing every day is a question.
- David Eckstein (STL) � Best known for going to the library to read his e-mail, Eckstein relocates to Busch Stadium this year. Don�t look for power, but Eck steals 15-20 bases and should easily score triple digit runs hitting in the front of the lineup.
- Jack Wilson (PIT) � Getting 652 AB�s helped Wilson notch a 200 hit season. Included in that total was 41 doubles and 12 triples en route to a .308 batting average. The problem with Jack is you don�t get much in the power and speed departments, and is not going to score a lot of runs with an anemic Pirate offense hitting behind him. Still a steady play however.
- Jose Valentin (LA) � You would think someone with 83 home runs over the last three years would rank much higher on this list, but Valentin always comes with a low batting average � dropping all the way to .216 last year. Valentin is expected to start at third base this year. But his power will drop at Dodger Stadium, more alarmingly the BA may drop even more.
- Alex Gonzalez (FL) � Has hit 41 home runs over the last two years, just a notch below 80 RBI both times. But as is the case with Valentin, it comes with a major hit to your batting average.
- Adam Everett (HOU) � Is finally beginning to develop somewhat offensively, hitting eight home runs and 13 stolen bases in four months worth of action. Still Everett�s role is as a #2 hitter and moving runners along � despite missing two months Everett finished second in the Majors with 22 sacrifice bunts.
- Jhonny Peralta (CLE) �The battle to succeed Omar Vizquel is on, with Peralta the favorite to beat out Brandon Phillips. Jhonny (that�s not a misspelling) was named International League MVP with a .326/109/15/86 season. Peralta was not even listed in MLB.com�s rankings, so this is a KACSPORTS exclusive.
- Cesar Izturis (LA) � The light hitting Izturis broke out in 2004, not only hitting .288 but improving his stolen bases from 10 to 25 and runs scored from 47 to 90. If you like AB�s, Cesar racked up 670 of them last year. Cesar is still only 25, so further development is possible, just not in the power departments.
- Christian Guzman (WSH) � Much capable of doing better in the steal department than he showed with the Twins (40 steals the last three years), Guzman once hit 20 triples in a single season. Hits about .270 but has little power and walks rarely.
- Felipe Lopez (CIN) � Barry Larkin�s replacement is eligible at third as well as short. Batting average (.235 lifetime) is an issue but there is also 20 HR potential.
- Jason Bartlett (MN) � Miss much of the 2004 season with a busted wrist, but hit .331 in 67 games in AAA along with .397 in 17 games in the Arizona Fall League. Bartlett is projected as a �table-setter� and with above average speed is capable of 15-20 steals.
- Omar Vizquel (SF) � He�s 38 now, but still will steal bases � 18 and 19 in his last two complete seasons and eight in just 64 games in 2003. Vizquel should feel right at home in the geriatric Giants lineup.
- Alex Gonzalez (TB) � The other Alex Gonzalez (the Cub version) is now also in Florida, and like Marlin Alex has shown some recent pop with home run seasons of 18 and 20. Batting average has rarely been above .250, and is slated to play third base this year where he has never played at the major league level.
- Alex Cintron (AZ) � Was on a lot of sleeper lists after hitting .317 with 13 home runs in � of a season in 3002. But Cintron only hit four homers last year while only hitting .262, and will now battle Royce Clayton and Craig Counsell for playing time.
- Jose Lopez (SEA) � Veteran Pokey Reese opens the year as a starter, but is only keeping the chair warm for Lopez, who hit five home runs in 207 AB�s as a 20 year old rookie. Doesn�t walk often, but puts the ball in play.
- Russ Adams (TOR) � Needed only two seasons to reach the show, and opened some eyebrows during a September call-up by hitting four home runs. However it is the stolen base department where Adams is expected to make more of an impact than power. However Adams defense isn�t great and there is another shortstop named Aaron Hill who many in the organization think may be better.
- J.J. Hardy (MIL) � Would had gotten a call last year except he hand season-ending shoulder surgery in May, but came back to make an impression in the Arizona Fall League. Hardy grades especially well on defense which could be enough to get him in the lineup.
