KAC 2005 FANTASY BASEBALL - RELIEF PITCHER RANKINGS
STRATEGY VARIES FOR FICKLE POSITION
Choosing relievers for fantasy baseball seems relatively simple on the surface, considering you are really only looking at one category. If he�s one of the 30 primary closers of an MLB team, then you�re interested. But how you go about acquiring closers is another matter. Sure, you can select the likes of Eric Gagne or Mariano Rivera in the first few rounds and be over with it � no worries. Although getting one of those elite guys can give you a quick edge in the saves category, you can also wait till later on in the draft to get your relievers. I wouldn�t wait too long though, a couple of runs and you will soon be trying to decide between Mike Adams and Chad Cordero. If you get to that point, one can even argue that you just might be better off focusing on the rest of your categories. In fact, the saves category is often won or loss with those waiver wire acquisitions made DURING the season. Where was Brad Lidge at this time last season?? He was found at the bottom of this list since Octavio Dotel seemed at the time entrenched as the Astros closer. Or how about three years ago when the Dodgers were desperately trying to get Jeff Shaw to come out of retirement, as management was very hesitant about the failed starter who they were going to plug in � if you took a flier on Eric Gagne late that year you came out just fine. Consider that no less than 14 teams were forced to change closers for one reason or another during the 2004 season, and you will quickly realize that this is a position that you shouldn�t panic too much over.
- Brad Lidge (HOU) � Most consider it sac-religious to put anyone other than Eric Gagne in this spot, but consider the following: Gagne had 114 strikeouts in 82.1 IP, Lidge had 157 in 94.2 innings � in fact Lidge ranked 15th among ALL NL pitchers in strikeouts. The only mild concern was that manager Phil Garner elected to utilize Lidge for several 2-inning saves in the midst of the Astros playoff push. Garner vows to be more careful with Lidge this year, which sounds like a good course of action.
- Francisco Rodriguez (ANG) � In fact, Gagne may prove not to be even the best closer in the LA market this year. The Angels finally cut Troy Percival loose, leaving K-Rod as the permanent closer. K-Rod racked up 12 saves in a couple of briefs stints in the closer role last year, and should get a ton of saves on an L.A.A of A team who should easily win the AL West. Was touched up a little in his two playoff appearances v. Boston but that shouldn�t be much of a worry. K-Rod will be on virtually every CDM Challenge team.
- Eric Gagne (LA) � Yeah, I guess he�s good, racking up 52, 55, and 45 saves over the past three years, pitching 82.1 innings in each season while posting ERA�s of 1.97, 1.20, and 2.19. But Gagne�s spring did not get off to good start after tweaking his knee. The Dodgers also gutted their bullpen at last year�s trade deadline getting rid of ace set-up man Guillermo Mota. I�m expecting a slight drop off.
- Mariano Rivera (NYY) � When �Enter Sandman� has blared over a PA system over the last decade it has meant either one of two things, either (a) Rivera�s coming in close out another game (b) or a wrestler is about to whack someone with a Singapore Cane after downing a 12-pack in a minute-45 seconds. Rivera has one of the best baselines of any reliever, but had his best season yet with 53 saves last year. Throw out his rookie year 10 years ago and Rivera has never had an ERA over 3.
- Keith Foulke (BOS) � Fantasy-wise, Foulke was a mild disappointment only because he only got an opportunity to save 32 games in the regular season, to Rivera�s 53. I consider that a mere anomaly, with any luck at all Foulke should be good for at least 40. Foulke has been just fine the last two years with an ERA just a tad over two and a ratio well under 1.
- Joe Nathan (MN) � Was a big question mark at this time last year since he was a career set-up man, but Nathan proved every bit capable racking up 44 saves with a 1.62 ERA. In the end, the joke ended up being on the Giants who had to suffer with Matt Herges most of the year. Twins relievers have been good for saves by the bunches in recent years, so Nathan remains a top pick.
- Armando Benitez (SF) � Much maligned reliever had a career year in 2004, saving 47 games � and his 1.29/0.82 ranked even higher than the top closers. Whoever�s closed for the Giants the past few years (Nen, Worrell, Herges) has gotten plenty of save opportunities � so Benitez has a chance to be really huge.
- Francisco Cordero (TX) � The Rangers starting staff is so bad that the #1 pitcher barely cracked my AL starters list � but Cordero was lights out saving 49 games along with a 2.13 ERA. I�m not expecting Cordero to repeat those numbers because (a) I think he�ll slip some and (b) the Rangers won�t win as many games. That said, Cordero still has to be considered early.
- Billy Wagner (PHI) � When healthy, Wagner can still wing it � hitting triple-figures on the gun in one early season game. But a sore shoulder among other problems resulted in a couple of DL stints. Rank him as a top-ten reliever but if he�s healthy all year can easily be top-five.
- Jason Isringhausen (STL) � Like Wagner, Izzy could easily be a top-five closer this year, but has never been able to stay healthy for an entire year and pitched through immense pain down the stretch last year. Still, Izzy saved 47 last year and should continue to get a ton of save opps with a powerful Cardinal team behind him.
- Trevor Hoffman (SD) � Would you rather have a pitcher with a 6 ERA or a 2 ERA??? Sorry, I�ve been listening to too much Mighty 1090 lately. Seriously, TH51�s value these days comes from him being the final nail in perhaps baseball�s best bullpen, pitching after Scott Linebrink (7th inning) and Akinori Otsuka (8th). Hoffman�s getting up there in years and had an injury a couple years ago, with that in mind draft Otsuka lake if you have Hoffman � then you can �refinance� should Trevor go down.
- Octavio Dotel (OAK) � This is the first of the closers who could conceivably lose his job during the season. Dotel was actually thought of quite highly at this time last year, and there was nothing wrong with him strikeout wise, averaging nearly 1 � per inning. However, Dotel did have his struggles as both an Astro and Athletic. The Oakland organization really likes Huston Street as a closer down the road, so Dotel could conceivably return to being an 8th inning pitcher where he did excel. I wouldn�t worry that much about it � Just don�t �O.D.� on this pick.
- Danny Kolb (ATL) � If he could just record a strikeout once in a while, he would be top ten here. As it is, Kolb steps into a situation far better than he had in Milwaukee the last couple of years. 39 saves as a Brewer could translate to 50 in the A-T-L, my only caveat is I think Kolb could fill a bigger need setting up, so hedge against the possibility that the Braves may eventually think the same way and put Smoltz back in the closer role.
- Guillermo Mota (FL) � Mike Piazza I think may still be looking for him, so this may be entertaining since they are now both in the same division. After years of being a top set-up man, Mota now gets his own closing gig. Mota had some issues adjusting after coming over from L.A., but I think he will be an above average closer in Florida. Should be a nice play in the salary cap games.
- Braden Looper (NYM) � This is a nice sleeper considering that Looper simply didn�t get a lot of save opps last year, finishing with only 29. Still Looper did very well not allowing an earned run for the first quarter of the season. With the improvements the Mets made on the other side of the ball Looper should improve on his opportunities drastically.
- John Smoltz (ATL) � We�ll just refer to this as the Wild Card pick, since Smoltz still qualifies at closer. Go ahead and knock yourself out if you�re the type that likes to get extra wins and strikeouts out of one of your closer spots.
- Shingo Takatsu (CWS) � Known as �Mr. Zero� from his Japanese League days, Takatsu was pretty close to that when the Pale Hose finally decided to turn to him at mid-season, being successful in 19 of 20 chances. However Zero doesn�t blow hitters away, and there�s a chance that the White Sox could move Shingo back into a set-up role along the way.
- Danny Graves (CIN) � Was racking up saves at a record pace during the first third of last year, having 26 saves in the bank by June 2. Graves luck changed after that, and a number of maladies clearly affected him in the second half in which he had an ERA of over 7. Graves biggest plus at this spot is his job security.
- Troy Percival (DET) � Moves on from Anaheim after a 10 year stint that saw him rack up 316 saves. Not nearly as dominating as he once was, as injuries including a degenerating hip are taking their toll. Troy should get some shots to close games on a vastly improved Tiger team.
- B.J. Ryan (BAL) � Are you feeling lucky??? B.J. will prove to be either (a) one of the bigger steals of the year or (b) the next Kyle Farnsworth. B.J. flirts with triple figures on the gun and the fact that Jose Julio is ailing also helps. But the O�s aren�t sold on B.J. as a closer quite yet, and are stilling consideration auditions. However a team often takes that stance until a unproven reliever proves himself. Unless he�s getting hammered in the spring B.J.�s upside is worth it in the middle rounds.
- Jose Mesa (PIT) � Baseball wise, this man�s been through more divorces than Norman Chad, but Mesa keeps on showing up at a new locale racking up a ton of saves every few years. Mesa somehow saved 43 on the lowly Pirates last year, but as usual gave up a ton of baserunners. Mesa will be hard pressed to duplicate 2004 numbers at age 39.
- Eddie Guardado (SEA) � When healthy, Eddie was as good as a Mariner than as a Twin, Eddie saved 18 games on a bad Mariner team with a .99 WHIP in just less than four months worth of work. Guardado was diagnosed with a partially torn rotator cuff that he elected not to have surgery on. Unfortunately, that is too much of a red flag to consider him any higher.
- Chad Cordero (WSH) � After a couple of years looking for a reliable ninth inning man, the Expos finally found there man in Cordero, and was nearly perfect in the waning weeks of the season. The Nats also like Luis Ayala � but Cordero comes into the season clearly as DC�s closer.
- Greg Aquino (AZ) � Jose Valverde is having shoulder problems, which should be a green flag for you to consider Aquino, who managed 16 late saves in 19 chances on a putrid Diamondback outfit, which is strongly revamped for this year.
- Danny Baez (TB) � After a failed stint in Cleveland, Baez has quietly worked himself into a decent closer, converting 30 of 33 chances last year. The problem is that Tampa is baseball hell, and the AL east means 38 games v. the Red Sox and Yankees where Baez won�t be seeing a lot of opportunities.
- Bob Wickman (CLE) � The Tribe went through a number of closers before Wickman finally was able to be healthy enough to return for the second half. The ERA/WHIP #�s were not great � but Wick converted 13 of 14 chances. Cleveland will be shy to go through the same revolving door again this year, so Wick opens the year with a pretty solid foothold on the job.
- Jeremy Affeldt (KC) � Has bounced around from being a reliever and starter, which means roster flexibility for this year. Affeldt seemed to find his niche after the Royals made him the closer, but is still susceptible to being cuffed around. The good news is Affeldt has great potential, so don�t look for KC to look elsewhere unless he really struggles.
- LaTroy Hawkins (CHC) � As was the case with the Twins, LaTroy is proving himself as being uncomfortable closing games. That said, Hawkins could still be a late steal if he gets off to a hot start with a team that should still contend. Be aware however that even in the best case scenario, that the Cubs made still look for an upgrade come trade deadline time.
- Mike Adams (MIL) � Comes into the year as the best bet to save games for the Brewers, but a cast of many � including newly acquired prospect Jose Capellan, are waiting in the wings. Adams should buy you a couple of months, but be prepared to find a replacement at some point.
- Jason Frasor (TOR) � Has a somewhat solid hold on the closers job going into the season, after finishing 2004 going 17-19 in save opps � but with each 100 MPH pitch coming out of prospect Brandon League, Frasor�s value will evaporate sooner rather than later.
- Chin-Hui Tsao (COL) � Has been told by manager Clint Hurdle that the closer�s job is his to lose. But after factoring in a bad elbow along with the Coors factor, and you see why Tsao is the last of the projected closers to be ranked.
- Akinori Otsuka (SD) � Now for those next in line. Otsuka has a tremendous debut season with a 1.75 ERA and seven wins as an eight inning pitcher, featuring a bizarre delivery that befuddles hitters, and one that some say should be outlawed. If Trevor goes down, Otsuka becomes a top-ten reliever.
- Ugueth Urbina (DET) � In case you missed it, the kidnapping saga involving UUU�s mom had a happy ending after she was rescued after spending several months being held at gunpoint deep in the Venezuelan outback. UUU now figures as Detroit�s top set-up man, but considering Troy Percival�s health Urbina could get another opportunity. Even so, UUU has been a proven closer over the years and stands a good chance at being dealt (Cubs perhaps??) during the season.
- Juan Rincon (MN) � Won 11 games out of relief last year, but don�t draft him based on that statistical aberration. Instead draft for his 1.02 WHIP and 106 strikeouts in 82 IP, he becomes a very good saves guy should Joe Nathan go down.
- Ryan Dempster (CHC) � Stands a great chance of unseating LaTroy Hawkins and breaking camp as the Cubs closer. The former starter has a heater in the mid-�90�s, so closing should be good form him. If he does get the job snatch him in the CDM Challenge where he�s listed as a starter at a tidy 520.
- Chris Reitsma (ATL) � Could close for the Braves in case anything happens with Dan Kolb. But strikeouts are not great, ERA hovers around 4 with a ratio in the 1.30�s. Upside is limited, but merits consideration on the chance of getting a lot of saves.
- Tim Worrell (PHI) � Proved that his outstanding season with the Giants two years ago was no fluke, recording 19 saves stepping in for Billy Wagner last year. Considering Wagner�s recent injury history, Worrell should be on your radar.
- Mike Gonzalez (PIT) � While Jose Mesa is the present, Gonzalez represents the not-too-distant future in the Pirate bullpen. Struck out well over a batter per inning with a .88 WHIP last year. Gonzalez moves up to the 15-20 area among closers when (not if) he wins the job.
- Tom Gordon (NYY) � Recorded some of his best numbers of recent years, with a 2.21/.88 along with over a strikeout per inning. Gordon is the Craig Nall of relievers as long as Mariano is healthy, but has plenty of experience to step in a pinch.
- Luis Ayala (WSH) � Sees a lot of action with the game on the line, going 16-15 (lot of decisions) the last two years while recording sub-3 ERA�s both times. Ayala isn�t far from potentially unseating Chad Cordero as DC�s closer.
- J.J. Putz (SEA) � Given Eddie Guardado�s arm situation, chances are good that Putz will get chances to close this year. Was not considered a great prospect, but has now added an effective curve to go along with a heater in the mid-90�s.
- Jose Capellan (MIL) � The Brewers made a great acquisition here, selling high on Dan Kolb and acquiring Capellan�s triple-digit heat. There�s still talk of Capellan winding up in the rotation instead, either way the upside shouldn�t be ignored.
- Jose Valverde (AZ) � Has sick stuff, as 71 K�s in 50 innings of work a couple of years back will attest. However Valverde is coming off a torn labrum and was tattooed in an early exhibition game.
- Scott Linebrink (SD) � Will really help you in strikeouts, as well as the average categories (2.14/1.04) � However Linebrink has never recorded an MLB save and is third in line for saves in San Diego.
- Jorge Julio (BAL) � Recent medical reports on Julio have not been good, with ulnar nerve damage recently being diagnosed. Even if healthy and closing, Julio ranks as mid-tier closer at best.
- Scot Shields (ANG) � Don�t look for saves as long as K-Rod is around, but Shields has turned into the OC�s version of Guillermo Mota, racking up 109 K�s in a busy 105 IP last year.
- Damaso Marte (CWS) � Has gotten sniffs at closing games in each of the last three years, but Marte�s true value is quickly becoming being an effective situational lefty � with opposing Lefty�s only hitting .143 last year.
- Ryan Wagner (CIN) � After making the majors within weeks of being drafted in 2003, Ryan took a step back last year, eventually getting further seasoning at AAA. Still Wagner projects as the first choice to succeed Danny Graves as closer, which could happen as soon as late 2005.
- Brandon League (TOR) � Hawaiian born, you have probably seen League on many top prospect reports, as he has hit triple-figures on the gun on a few occasions. Brandon should make the show for good this year, and become the Jays closer not long after. When that happens, he will be a good pick-up in any League, including yours.
- Huston Street (OAK) � Less than a year removed from playing for the University of Texas, Street is already figuring heavy in the A�s plans, perhaps as soon as this year. Street�s dad is well known in U-T circles as being the quarterback of the Longhorns 1969 National Championsip squad.
