KAC RACING |
Each February for a generation it was a right of late-winter. Another NASCAR season would begin with practice, and then qualifying for the Daytona 500. And every February, all talk always began and ended with Dale Earnhardt. Even though Dale only won the 500 itself once, the track itself was his own personal playground, and any driver aspiring at winning racing's most prestigious race had to go straight through the #3 car to get there. As everyone knows, the story culminated last year with Dale Earnhardt running second to his son as the laps wound down - before Michael Waltrip made his move en route to a first ever Cup victory, while the #3 car crashed in Turn 4 as it protected the path for DEI drivers Dale Jr. and Waltrip. As it turns out, Dale Jr. was perfectly qualified to carry the family torch. It started with a Pepsi 400 victory so dominating that skeptics speculated on whether the fix was on (that was Jimmy Spencer who started that � consider the source!!!). And then there was the Shootout this past Sunday. Just as Tony Stewart needed to get past Dale Sr. to win last year, Dale Jr. was on his exhaust in similar fashion this time around. Looks like the path to the Daytona 500 trophy will have to go through the Earnhardt family for at least another generation�
For the last couple of weeks I have posted a top-40 driver list for the upcoming season. The rankings were according to the Sporting News pre-season magazine, although I provided the commentary. My rankings (for the season) based on observations in recent days goes as follows�
1. J. Gordon, 2. Stewart, 3. B. LaBonte, 4. Dale Jr. 5, Jarrett, 6. Marlin, 7. Harvick, 8. Rudd, 9. J. Burton, 10. R. Wallace, 11. Benson, 12. W. Burton, 13. J. Johnson, 14. Craven, 15. Martin, 16. Newman, 17. Nadeau, 18. Elliott, 19. Kenseth, 20. K. Wallace, 21. Hamilton, 22. Mayfield, 23. R. Gordon, 24. Spencer, 25. J. Green, 26. Busch, 27. Schrader, 28. M. Waltrip, 29. T. LaBonte, 30. Sadler
Jimmie Johnson was ranked #33 by TSN, that was probably the rankings biggest misjudgement. JJ will be top 20 at the very worst. Nemechek and Todd Bodine do not crack my list for the time being due to their uncertain sponsorship status. Finally, look for Tony Stewart to make a serious run at Jeff Gordon's throne (and I don't mean just on pit road).
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Tony celebrates another shootout win... |
Also it appears that the new restrictor plate rules package worked as intended to in the shootout, with the better drivers breaking away and being able to separate from each other. The race may not be as exciting as plate races last year, but the chance of one of your drivers being collected in a 20-car wreck will be greatly reduced.
Now for my lowdown on Daytona for Sunday�
PRIME CONTENDERS � Dale Jr., Tony Stewart, Sterling Marlin, Kevin Harvick, Bobby LaBonte, Jeff Gordon. Junior, Stewart, Marlin, and LaBonte were all in the mix at the shootout. Harvick qualified alongside Jimmie Johnson on the front row and will be a force to be reckoned with as well. And of course Gordon is never to be omitted from this list.
PROCEED WITH CAUTION � Without a doubt, Jimmie Johnson has owned February at the Speedway. What happens when JJ start from the front in the glare of the 500-mile spotlight may be a different matter. Check out the results of the six rookies to start from the pole in �01 � 43rd, 43rd, 42nd, 39th, 28th and 14th. Odds probably favor JJ making an early trip behind the wall as opposed to finishing on the lead lap. Kevin Harvick probably had the right idea, he did not win a pole last year. Still, if you drafted JJ, or if you have him in a cap game at a rock-bottom salary � you could do a lot worse.
TREAD CAREFULLY - Tuesday practice was marred by a seven-car tangle involving Tony Stewart, Bobby Hamilton, Jeff Burton, Ricky Rudd, Jimmy Spencer, Brett Bodine, and Todd Bodine. Hamilton and Burton's cars were torn up the most. Burton's crew will repair their primary car while Hamilton will go to a backup - starting from the rear for the 125.
DEFENDING CHAMP � Michael Waltrip is listed at 30-1 by the bookies. Hmmmm...I smell a possible off-shore snicky-snack. I don't see #15 car winning again, and will probably suffer slightly with the new rules package - but should be given much more than a punchers chance at winning.
WILEY VETERAN � Bill Elliott always looks good coming into this race and will probably sneak into the fray at some point.
POSSIBLE LONGSHOTS � If you are looking at a circa-1990 Derrick Cope surprise, Ryan Newman may be right up your alley. Ryan is far more mature than the average rookie, and more than held his own in the Shootout. With the Ford spoiler reduction Ryan has a chance to hang in there until the end. Ken Schrader (45/1) also looked very strong in the shootout and Ricky Craven is a good possibility at 55/1.
STAY AWAY � Jimmy Spencer could be the big name watching as opposed to participating come Sunday. Besides being involved in the practice wreck, Spencer has not looked good all month, and finished the Shootout a lap down. Neither his qualifying speed or provisional points are good enough, so Jimmy must finish in the top 14 (besides the pole-sitter) in his 125 heat. Obviously, his transition period with the new team has hit some rough spots. Not to mention Spencer is not exactly a plate specialist to begin with. He wasn�t too shook up about bowing out at Talladega early last October (�It ain�t racing�). This aside, look for the #41 car to slowly rebound in the weeks to come.
My ten best bets for Daytona are as follows�
1. Dale Jr., 2. Stewart, 3. Marlin, 4. Harvick, 5. LaBonte, 6. J. Gordon, 7. Waltrip 8. Jarrett, 9. Elliott, 10. J. Johnson
Odds on winning race (for entertainment purposes only...) - J. Gordon 5/1, Stewart, Dale Jr. 6/1, B. LaBonte 7/1, Jarrett, Marlin 8/1, W. Burton 10/1, J. Burton, Rudd 12/1, Harvick, R. Wallace 15/1, Elliott 18/1, Martin, Benson 20/1, K. Wallace 22/1, Mayfield, Nadeau 25/1, M. Waltrip, R. Gordon 30/1, M. Wallace, Spencer 35/1, Kenseth, Hamilton 40/1, Schrader 45/1, Andretti, J. Green 50/1, Skinner, Craven 55/1, T. LaBonte, Nemechek 60/1