KAC 2005 FANTASY BASEBALL - NL STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS


'ELITE PITCHERS' DON'T NECESSARILY TRANSLATE INTO WINS



Time for a quick quiz: What is Kerry Wood�s career high in wins?? Now how about Ben Sheets?? And finally what is Josh Beckett�s career high?? We�re talking about three of the most well known pitchers in the game. The first two have racked up 20 and 18 strikeout games, respectively � while the third is a World Series MVP. But for all their accolades, Kerry Wood has never won more than 14 games. Ben Sheets has won 11, 11, 11, and finally 12 games while sporting a 45-53 career record while Beckett is still looking to break into double digits, with his career high being all of nine wins.

I�m guessing all three have a good shot at achieving career highs this year. While the NL this year lacks the top-end stars such as Johnson, Schilling, or Santana, it does provide more depth, and is further fortified by the additions of Pedro Martinez, Mark Mulder, and Tim Hudson. Throw in emerging stars such as Oliver Perez and Jake Peavy and you should have plenty to choose from.


  1. Jason Schmidt (SF) � Appeared headed to a Cy Young award late last year when he turned in outings allowing 6, 6, and 6 earned runs. That was a devilish stretch that cost the Giants and fantasy teams alike. Still he�s a consensus choice as #1 in the league, although there are plenty of choices behind him. 250 K�s in 225 IP and a great pitchers park helps the cause.


  2. Roy Oswalt (HOU) � Some can�t get over the fact that Roy is rail thin, and has also been dogged with problems such as groin pulls and a strained rib muscle over the last two years. Roy�s ERA/WHIP also went up slightly last year, from 2.97/1.14 to 3.49/1.24. But unlike 2003, Oswalt made it through the whole season and finished a 20 game winner after 19 wins in �02. That category alone boosts Oswalt in these rankings.


  3. Mark Prior (CHC) � Those who drafted early last year were no doubt swearing up a storm as an injury that was supposed to be a minor setback in Spring Training turned into a year-long soap opera, complete with reports that Dusty Baker was holding back news that Prior was facing season-ending surgery. That turned out to be false, and Prior finally got on track in September (2.17 ERA, 43 K�s in 37.1 IP). Prior has the best command and best stuff in the league, if things go right don�t be surprised to see him #1 on this list this time next year.


  4. Ben Sheets (MIL) � Many will balk from ranking Sheets this high, saying he needs to do better than 12-14 or prove and/or establish himself for more than one year. I say get on the ground floor on this elevator folks � Sheets 2004 #�s (2.70/.98/264 K�s in 237 IP) are more remarkable considering the bum back that would had put most others on the shelf. The doctor who operated on him in the off-season was amazed that he could even stand straight, let alone perform at this level. All of that bodes very well for this year. His 8.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio is very Schilling/Maddux like. The only thing that hurts (besides not having a good team behind him) is that Sheets doesn�t help himself much when hitting, which might cost him a couple wins per year. And you absolutely have to start Sheets on day games at home where Miller Park�s shadows come into play, there were two games last year when Ben was completely unfair in those conditions.


  5. Pedro Martinez (NYM) � Did you ever think Pedro would ever fly this much under the radar??? The key numbers from 2004 were his ERA jumping from 2.22 to 3.90 while allowing 26 home runs, as opposed to seven before. The big worry is if and when his arm is going to burn out once and for all. Moving from Fenway and the AL to Shea and the NL has to be considered a plus however.


  6. Carlos Zambrano (CHC) � With the likes of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior injured early, Zambrano became the ace of a strong Cubs staff in �04. But much like Wood Zambrano allows more than his share of free passes. Carlos� antics have ticked off a few opposing hitters over the past year.


  7. Kerry Wood (CHC) � Burned fantasy owners for the umpteenth time by missing two months due to a sore arm along with a 4+ ERA after that. But for the first time, K-Wood�s walk total dropped significantly. He�s still only 27, and this might be the year everything finally comes together � jump on him if he starts to slide too far in your draft.


  8. Jake Peavy (SD) � Don�t look for Jake to pitch twice in the first week of 2005. It has already been announced that Peavy will not start in the first game in Colorado, but instead make his first start in the Padres home opener later that week v. Pittsburgh. I know, that�s a bummer � actually not. Missed some time last year with a sore arm, but came back to post 15 wins and a league leading 2.27 ERA � home park a huge plus for Jake.


  9. Tim Hudson (ATL) � Georgia native returns home to become the ace of the Braves staff, and was recently rewarded with a $47 million contract. Kevin Brown clone isn�t great with strikeouts, but his move to the NL should be a huge plus. Look for Hudson to flirt with 20 wins and his ERA should go back below the dark side of 3.


  10. Oliver Perez (PIT) � Would have him a couple of spots higher on this list if not for reports of shoulder stiffness coming from spring camp, with some wondering if there is more disclosure coming. Had a Johan Santana-like breakout last year, albeit on a smaller scale � improving from 5.87/1.65 to 2.98/1.15 as opposing batters hit only .207. Walks (206 in 412 career IP) are a bug-a-boo but remember O.P. is still only 22 years old.


  11. Roger Clemens (HOU) � 7-time Cy Young winner opened the year in very sick fashion and wasn�t even bad after he cooled down, going 3.41/1.13 in the second half, while still striking out a man per inning. Surprising pitched much better at home (2.71/1.05) than on the road (3.43/1.34). Questions about age do drop the Rocket a few spots.


  12. Mark Mulder (STL) � If the Dodgers announcer wanted to do an interview with Mark when the Cards make their trip into LA, would that be a Mulder/Scully reunion??? Actually, the truth is out there over concerns about Mulder�s health, along with an awful 2004 second half (6+ ERA) which lowers his ranking several spots. That said, Mulder moves to a great situation in the NL where he should get plenty of wins. Couple that with the fact that pitchers tend to get much better when donning Cardinal red, and chances are you will have an exceptional value at this spot.


  13. Josh Beckett (FL) � Here�s another pick with some risk that has a very good chance of working out. If you could swear to me that Beckett�s blister problems are a thing of the past, then he has a chance of being top-five on this list. He does strikeout a man per inning, but his ratios (1.27, 1.32, 1.22) haven�t been exceptional in recent years.


  14. A.J. Burnett (FL) � Has returned to form sooner than you usually see pitchers on the comeback from Tommy John surgery. In fact A.J. posted some of the best numbers of his career (3.24/1.16) after the All-Star Break while also averaging over a strikeout per inning. Control was also much improved from pre-injury.


  15. Chris Carpenter (STL) � I�ve already talked about Mulder, and Carpenter is another example of what can happen to a pitcher fantasy wise after leaving the AL. Prior to 2004, Carpenter never had an ERA of 4 or even a ratio below 1.40. Last year Chris went 15-5 with a 3.46/1.14 and 152 K�s in 182 IP. However Carpenter has an extensive history of arm trouble, including at the tail end of last year. Another pitcher who will bear watching this spring, but early word is that he appears 100 percent.


  16. Odalis Perez (LA) � Myself, I�ve never been that enamored with Odalis � who seems like an eight or nine run shelling ready to happen. However, if you look at two of his last three years (3.00/.99, 3.25/1.14) he definitely merits high consideration. But be warned, Odalis doesn�t have the greatest attitude in the world.


  17. Brad Penny (LA) � And then there are even greater Dodger risks. LA basically gutted the heart of it�s team to bring Penny in at the trade deadline last season, but immediately went down with a nerve injury to his arm � the likes of which there is no real precedent. Penny was having a career year (3.15/1.22) at the time of his injury � if he is healed there is no reason why he shouldn�t be able to repeat it pitching his home games at Dodger Stadium.


  18. John Smoltz (ATL) � Actually, Smoltz comes into the season only eligible as a reliever � although he is set to return to the Braves rotation for the first time since 1999. If you ask me however, I think Smoltz was better served as a closer, where he was developing a career path similar to Dennis Eckersley. I think new closer Dan Kolb is better suited as an eighth inning guy. If Smoltz starting doesn�t work out, a return to closing is not out of the question. Not a bad pick if you want to get extra wins/K�s out of your last reliever spot.


  19. Livan Hernandez (WSH) � Old schoolers (Bob Uecker would literally preach this) feel that pitchers actually incurred less injuries in the days in which they went every fourth day and routinely threw 150+ pitches per outing. In the modern era, Livan comes about as close to possible to achieving that, throwing 255 innings without any sign of arm trouble, while posting ERA�s of 3.20 and 3.60. If you want a true innings eater than Livan is your guy.


  20. Javier Vazquez (AZ) � I�ve always liked this guy, but it has always seemed like something was getting in the way � whether it was the obscurity of Montreal or the glare of being a member of the Yankees. Vazquez said publicly that the Yankees will regret getting rid of him, and hopefully Arizona will be a happy medium, with JV heading a revamped Diamondback rotation.


  21. Tom Glavine (NYM) � Glavine had always said that he made a wise move as a youth choosing baseball over hockey, saying that he wanted to keep his front teeth. However a New York cabbie proved to be just as bad as any NHL defenseman, with the resulting crash with an SUV turning Glavine into a baseball version of Dany Heatley. The incident seemed to impact Glavine between the lines as well, prior to the accident Glavine was enjoying a fine comeback season (2.92 ERA) but would allow 33 ER in 50 IP afterwards. Even when pitching well, Glavine deserved a better fate only going 11-14 on the year.


  22. Kris Benson (NYM) � Myself I consider Benson overrated, with part of that coming from him being the top pitching name that was involved in the trade deadline. Benson could improve going to a pitchers park, but consider any ERA under four as a bonus.


  23. Greg Maddux (CHC) � I�ve been playing fantasy baseball for 17 years, during that time Maddux has never let a fantasy team down � recording at least 15 wins in each of those 17 seasons, now that�s consistency. No longer a top line pitcher, but although his ERA runs about 4 these days, his ratio has been a very respectable 1.18 in each of the last two seasons.


  24. Dontrelle Willis (FL) � D-Train is a work in progress, and it should had been no surprise that he regressed some from 2003 (3.30/1.28) to 2004 (4.02/1.38). That said, Willis appears to be on the right track and should improve as he refines his mechanics.


  25. Matt Morris (STL) � Underwent surgery on his labrum after a year that saw his ERA jump up over a point (4.72) from his career mark. Early reports out of spring camp have been encouraging, and Morris could be back sometime in April, although May or even June are possible as return dates.


  26. Al Leiter (FL) � Had one of his better seasons for the Mets last year, posting a 3.21 ERA, and now the 17-year veteran heads back to Florida, where he starred in 1996-97. Even at age 39, I wouldn�t be surprised to see another solid season.


  27. Vicente Padilla (PHI) � Much like how San Diego�s new park hurt Padre hitters, Philly�s new yard meant bad news to their pitchers. Padilla saw his numbers increase from 3.62/1.24 to 4.53/1.34, and had a sore arm to boot � which is also hampering him this spring.


  28. Doug Davis (MIL) � Although Ben Sheets got all the accolades, Davis actually had a great season himself, with a 3.39 ERA and even 166 strikeouts in 207.1 IP. I wouldn�t quite expect a repeat of those numbers, but Davis doesn�t make a bad middle-tier starter.


  29. Woody Williams (SD) � Had 2 � very solid seasons with the Cardinals, but there seemed to be some slippage near the end, including a 5.01 ERA on the road last year. That said Woody should work well in the middle of San Diego�s rotation and even at age 38 should be a good #3-4 starter for most teams.


  30. Jon Lieber (PHI) � A 20 game winner with the Cubs a few years back, Lieber returned from Tommy John surgery to go 14-8 with a 4.32 ERA with the Yankees last year, parlaying that into a contract with the Phillies. Expect decent if not spectacular numbers.


  31. John Thomson (ATL) � As expected improved greatly upon getting out of Dodge (er Texas) with a 14-8 slate and a 3.72 ERA. Had a ton of arm problems early in his career but has righted himself lately.


  32. Andy Pettitte (HOU) � Yet another pitcher on the mend, Pettitte was roughed up during a recent intersquad scrimmage. If you draft him, be prepared to be patient and potentially reap the rewards during the second half.


  33. Brandon Webb (AZ) � Started to fade in the waning weeks of what was a fantastic rookie campaign (2.84/1.15) in 2003, then slumped to 7-16 with a 1.50 ratio last year. Webb�s walk total ballooned from 68 (180.2 IP) to 119 (208 IP) last year. Although he was still walking a ton, Webb did only have a 3.33 ERA in the second half last year.


  34. Russ Ortiz (AZ) � Speaking of pitchers who allow a ton of walks. However Russ has won 99 games over the last six years � however that was pitching for the Giants and Braves, it remains to be seen if he can win in the desert.


  35. Randy Wolf (PHI) � Nearly struck out a batter per inning as recently as 2003. Wolf�s numbers virtually remained the same in the new ballpark, although a nerve injury in his foot ended his season early. Wolf is coming off surgery on the foot, so he bears watching this spring.


  36. Jerome Williams (SF) � As expected his ERA went up some from his rookie season, from 3.30 to 4.24 � although most of his other totals remain the same. Had to have bone chips from his elbow removed during the season, but did return for the stretch run. At 23, Jerome is far from a finished product and has already been named the Giants #5 starter this season.


  37. Jeff Weaver (LA) � Improved somewhat moving to the National League, improving from 5.99/1.62 to 4.01/1.30. Some feel Weaver would be a top pitcher if he ever had a head to match his ability. You�re rolling the dice some here.


  38. Kip Wells (PIT) � Had years of 3.58 and 3.28, but struggled mightily last year and eventually went down with a bad elbow along with carpal tunnel syndrome in his finger. Early word is Kip will be ready for the opening of the season.


  39. Brian Lawrence (SD) � If you like pitchers who throw high cheese, you might want to move on here � but Lawrence is really not that bad. Some like to say that Brian was helped out by his home park last year, but actually performed better on the road (3.86/1.36) than at home (4.42./141).


  40. Adam Eaton (SD) � Another Padre who inexplicably struggled much more at home (3-8, 4.99/1.35) than on the road (8-6, 4.21/1.22). That said, you would have to think Eaton�s home numbers improve this year.


  41. Mark Redman (PIT) � Had a very good year with Florida a couple of years back (14-9, 3.59/1.22) but struggled with the A�s last year. Now Redman heads for his fifth team in as many years, but should be good enough to hold a spot in the rotation.


  42. Eric Milton (CIN) � Went 14-6 with the Phillies after missing most of 2003 with a knee injury. But Milton didn�t do well (4.75) in the ERA department and doesn�t figure to do too much better in another bandbox in Cincinnati.


  43. Mike Hampton (ATL) � Unlike Darryl Kile a few years back, Hampton did not regain all of his faculties after leaving Colorado purgatory. However Hampton did go 9-1 with a 3.13 ERA in the second half, so improvement is possible this year.


  44. Brett Tomko (SF) � When Jason Schmidt struggled, it was Tomko who nearly carried the Giants on his back in September, going 3-1 in five starts with a 1.78/.88. Surprisingly Tomko struggled at home 5.31/1.52 but excelled on the road 3.15/1.22.


  45. Jeff Suppan (STL) � ERA and ratio are only average, but support from the Cardinal offense helped Suppan get 16 wins last year, and Jeff also had some solid outings in the post-season.


  46. Jeff Francis (COL) � Is considered one of baseball�s top prospects, enhanced by going 13-1 while holding opposing hitters to a .181 average in AA last year. If Fran was with any of the other 29 teams in baseball right now there would be reason to be excited. Unfortunately, Francis is a Rockie, and Coors Field has busted up every potential phenom over the years faster than you can say David Nied. That said, Francis was actually decent in two home starts (2.45 ERA) late last year while he was actually roughed up on the road (6.31). Any ERA under four and he could be an MVP candidate.


  47. Noah Lowery (SF) � First round draft pick from 2001 raised some eyebrows by winning all six of his late-season decisions, with a 3.82 ERA in the process. Lowry makes a lot of his hay with off-speed stuff, think of him as kind of a West-Bay Barry Zito.


  48. Tomo Ohka (WSH) � I probably woundn�t take him because I remember a couple of horrific outings where he wasn�t able to get a single batter out in the first inning. But Ohka was actually pretty solid in his first ten starts of 2004 posting a 3.01 ERA before his pitching arm was busted on a line drive. It remains to be seen if he can return to 100 percent.


  49. Tony Armas (WSH) � Meet your Nats Part II. Armas has had two injury plagued seasons but had a strong outing in Washington�s exhibition opener � pitching two scoreless racks. If healthy, Armas could really emerge this year at age 26.


  50. Jason Marquis (STL) � Yet another example on what pitching for the Cards can do for you. Marquis couldn�t even be harnessed by Braves pitching guru Leo Mazzone, posting a pair of 5+ ERA years before turning in a 15-7, 3.71 season in St. Louis. Mazzone is rocking back in Atlanta wondering where he went wrong on that one.
  51. Derek Lowe (LA) � After a year in which Lowe sported a 5.62 ERA (1.61 ratio), you wouldn't expect Lowe or anyone else on this list. But Lowe is still only a few years removed from a 21 win season which also featured a sub-3 ERA and a sub-1 WHIP. With Lowe had a very impressive first exhibition outing, moving to LA and the spacious confines of Dodger Stadium - anything is possible.







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