And then there are the Astros, who added Andy Petitte along with Roger Clemens to a impressive rotation that already includes aces Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt. Add St. Louis� Matt Morris to the mix and you have a nice collection of NL Central starters who will do quite well, especially when they get to face the Division�s lesser-likes (Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati).

1. Mark Prior (CHC � 1350) � It seems like only yesterday, but during the first year of my weekly Blue Sheet columns (2001), I suggested to take a look at Prior during the College World Series, for you will be seeing him on the top of fantasy cheat sheets in the very near future. Well, that day is already here. Became totally untouchable after the All-Star Break last year with a 1.52 ERA along with a 10-1 record. Don�t shy away from Prior on the road where he was actually stronger (2.08 ERA) than at home (2.85). If he adds a third or even fourth pitch to his repertoire, look out!!!



2. Kerry Wood (CHC � 1190) � Remember when Randy Johnson suddenly quit walking all those people in the early 1990�s and overnight became the best pitcher in the majors??? The same scenario could still yet play out with K-Wood. Wood�s strikeouts went up to 266 in 211 IP last year, but still walks in the 90-100 range, which results in a relatively high 1.20 ratio along with a 3.20 ERA. Kerry often needs to be pulled after 6-7 innings due to high pitch counts, which in part is why Wood has never won more than 14 games in a year. Drop Wood down to #8 or #9 on this list in 4 X 4 leagues.



3. Jason Schmidt (SF � 1240) � If there wasn�t the injury flag, Schmidt would easily be #2, and would push Prior for #1. Early word out of Giants camp is that Schmidt�s elbow is as �good as new�, and that he will be ready for opening day. If so, move Schmidt to #2, but if the Giants play it conservatively and DL Schmidt for the first few weeks, then knock him down a few spots. As far as raw stats are concerned, Schmidt was as good as anyone even with a bad elbow last year, going 17-5, with a 2.34 ERA./95 ratio and averaged exactly one strikeout per inning.



4. Roy Oswalt (HOU � 1200) � Another top-flight pitcher coming off an injury, as Oswalt went on the DL three times with a groin problem that eventually necessitated surgery. When healthy, Roy went 10-5 with a 2.97 ERA/1.14 ratio and won 19 games with a 3.01 ERA the year before. Manager Jimy Williams already thinks so much of Oswalt that he has already named him as the Astros Opening Day starter.



5. Josh Beckett (FL � 990) � My J.S Giguere philosophy comes into play here. Giguere is the NHL goaltender that emerged last year, leading the Anaheim Mighty Ducks to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals and was named the playoff MVP despite his team coming up short in the final game. But then came the short off-season, and the cash-strapped Ducks (not unlike the Marlins) had to unload some of their better players. Next thing you know it is next season, and Giguere struggled mightily. With that in mind, Beckett may feel like a fish out of water this year (notice I�ve got the puns working). After getting through an early-season elbow problem, Beckett went 6-4 with a 2.55 ERA in the second half with 93 K�s in 88 1/3 IP. Becks then even stepped it up more in the off-season, sporting a 2.11 ERA, with 47 K�s in 42 2/3 IP while holding the opposition to a .139 average. Pretty impressive against anyone, absolutely incredible against the likes of the Giants, Cubs, and Yankees. If not for the impending hangover and possible arm troubles I would rank him top-three here, as it is Becks still carries a nice CDM price tag, just be sure to have a backup plan.



6. Randy Johnson (AZ � 1550) � You no doubt have seen those poker games that seem to infiltrate the TV dial these days. Unit would be a natural at one of those tables, even without the dark shades you would have no idea of the hand he�s holding. His arm is still as good as ever, and he could easily post the numbers he produced the first four years in the desert (81-27 record, sub 2.50 ERA, 350 K�s per year), or his arthritic knee (which may not get any better) and his bad back could bark, Unit could land on the DL for half the year and struggle again when he does pitch (6-8, 4.26/1.33 last year) and be forced into retirement. Do you call his bluff and make the turn with Johnson??? You are going to have to make that decision yourself, as Unit is perhaps fantasy baseballs biggest gamble this year. Rank him #2 if you are confident of a rebound. If you decide to pass, don�t worry � Sam Farha should be out there in Round 10.



7. Matt Morris (STL � 1060) � Was shelled badly trying to pitch hurt through June and July (+8 ERA), but ERA was well under three the rest of the year with a ratio of 1.01, pitching three complete games in May. Went 39-17 the previous two years, so 2004 is a good year to get Morris at a slightly discounted price.



8. Brandon Webb (AZ � 910) � After the top seven, there is a pretty steep drop off, so if you�re in need of a pitcher now, the best bet is to surf the Webb. Dontrelle Willis got much of the rookie hype, but Webb wound up being last year�s best rookie hurler. Before being roughed up in his final two starts, Webb gave up three ER�s or less in 25 of his first 26 starts, sporting a 2.50 ERA in that span, and had 172 K�s in 180 IP. His sinkerball is downright lethal!!!



9. Wade Miller (HOU � 1020) � There are times he gets Rick Ankiel-like wild, and wound up with a 4.13 ER/1.31 ratio in 2003. But had a 3.28 ERA after the All-Star Break last year while averaging a strikeout per inning, a better indication of his true potential.



10. Kevin Millwood (PHI � 1050) � It�s been five years since he was downright nasty (18-7, 2.68 ERA) with the Braves. We saw the circa-�99 Millwood for the first two months last year, even throwing in a no-hitter against the Giants no less. However he ballooned to a 4.29 ERA after June 1. Millwood is still trying to land a big contract so there is a chance he could be an ace this year.



11. Jake Peavy (SD � 810) � A speculative pick here, Peavy has shown enough in his first two years to make me believe that he could push for an All-Star berth this year, with a 3.46 ERA while holding opponents to a .216 average. 200 K�s is also a good possibility and the new yard should also be to his liking. You would like to see him cut down on the gopher balls (33 last year) however.



12. Randy Wolf (PHI � 1040) � Ballooned from 3.21/1.12 to 4.23/1.27 last year, but struck out 177 in 200 innings and won 16 games. 16 earned runs in 6 IP in back-to-back outings in August did most of the damage to his ERA.



13. Carlos Zambrano (CHC � 810) � If you went by last season�s stats (sub 3.00 ERA until a couple of bad September starts) you can definitely make a case for Zambrano being in the top ten. But Carlos is on everyone�s potential breakdown list and there are also weight concerns. Still he has a nice price tag in CDM, but take a good look at him during the Spring.



14. Andy Pettitte (HOU � 1020) � Did anyone ever think we�d see Pettitte in anything but pinstripes, in which he seemed born to be in??? I have a feeling Andy will be overvalued in many drafts this year after winning 21 games last year, but at the expense of a 4.02 ERA. Also Houston�s park seems more like Enron than Minute Maid Park to left-handers.



15. Greg Maddux (CHC � 1190) � Maddux�s so-called triumphant return to the North Side is being hailed by many, but the fact that he went unclaimed for most of the off-season should serve as a red-flag. Maddux gets cuffed around in many appearances these days. Maddux had a 2.62 ERA as recently as two years ago, but Cub fans should not be illusioned into thinking that this will be anywhere close to the Maddux that they�ve been missing for the last decade.



16. Russ Ortiz (ATL � 1090) � Doesn�t it tell you something about the state of the Braves franchise when the first pitcher doesn�t get mentioned until now. Don�t get deceived by the 21 wins last year, Ortiz got tons of run support he will not get again. The rest of his stats (3.81/1.31) were not anything special and he does not get a ton of strikeouts. Ortiz walks way too many (102 last year), if he ever cuts it down he could finally have his career year, but we�re still waiting.



17. Hideo Nomo (LA � 1110) � When he�s on, he is as much a threat as anyone to pitch a no-hitter. Doesn�t strike out quite as many as he used to, but still recorded 177 K�s in 218 innings last year, along with a fine 3.09 ERA.



18. Vicente Padilla (PHI � 890) � Not a bad encore to his breakout 2002 season (3.28 ERA), winning 14 games for the second year in a row along with a 3.62 ERA. Should be undervalued in most drafts.



19. Woody Williams (STL � 990) � Was the Cards true ace in the first half last year, going 12-3 with a 3.01 ERA, following a 2.53 ERA in 17 starts in 2002. However, Woody had a 5.23 ERA/1.53 ratio in the second half � prompting concerns that the workload and age (38) may be taking a toll on him.



20. Roger Clemens (HOU � 1130) � You still have to do a double-take to see him on the National League side. Doesn�t work deep into games these days, but still struck out 190 and won 16 games with a 3.91/1.21. Went 63-26 in his four year Yankee career.



21. Matt Clement (CHC � 960) � Don�t let the fact that he may be as low as the Cubs #5 starter bother you, Clement is a strikeout per inning pitcher, and despite a 4.11 ERA last year he is still very capable of lowering that into the low three�s.



22. Jerome Williams (SF � 630) � Was in the shadows the fellow rookies Dontrelle Willis and Brandon Webb last year, but the 22 year old is on track to make his own mark this year after going 7-5 in 21 starts with a nice 3.30 ERA. A big-time sleeper who is definitely recommended in CDM at 630.



23. Mike Hampton (ATL � 840) � Still pitched like he was in Coors Field in the first half (4.85/1.54), but we saw the circa 1999-2000 Hampton in the second half when he posted a fine 9-3 record along with a 2.91 ERA.



24. John Thomson (ATL � 770) � Now that he is on the Braves staff, Thomson is on many a sleeper list. Thomson may have a 4.93 career ERA, but most of that was toiling on the Rockies and Rangers staffs. As we have seen with Darryl Kile and Mike Hampton, getting out of Coors can do major wonders for a pitcher.



25. Brian Lawrence (SD � 840) � Nice pitcher, but subpar in the velocity department and doesn�t have a lot of upside. If you are looking for a consistent pitcher with an ERA a shade under four along with a nice ratio and possibly 15 wins Lawrence is your guy. Just don�t expect the Cy Young.



26. Kip Wells (PIT � 880) � The life of an emerging ace for a second division team. Wells has a 3.28 for the year in 31 starts, and needed four wins in September just to get to 10 on the year!!! Kip actually got better as the year went on, posting a 2.74 ERA after the All-Star Break, and at age 27 is just reaching his peak. If he can get the ERA under two perhaps he could win 12-13 games if he�s lucky � or not.



27. Brad Penny (FL � 880) � A big-time fastball along with an electric curve, and beat the Yanks twice in the World Series. There is much to like about 1 cent, but there is also inconsistency and a balky shoulder. He�s worth the gamble as he will put it all together one of these years.



28. Shawn Chacon (COL � 600) � The CDM fifth-reliever special for this year � that is a listed starter who is being converted into a closer. In the CDM game those types can be used as one of the six starting pitchers, replacing the pitcher whom the owner would feel least confident with in a given week (and would no doubt only be starting once anyways). The end result is gaining precious saves, while also improving the team ERA and ratio � at the sacrifice of wins and strikeouts. In the end you are benefiting in three of five possible categories. This spring Chacon (who has never relieved) is being tutored by Goose Gossage, who is giving him pointers in everything from changing his mind set to warming up properly. Interesting enough, Chacon was better in Coors Field (4.38/1.26) than on the road (4.86/1.41) last year.



29. Eric Milton (PHI � 750) � Not a bad CDM price time after missing most of last year with a trick knee. Only problem is that even in his best days with the Twins his ERA was still well over 4, you can only hope that the move to the National League will help cure that.



30. Dontrelle Willis (FL � 780) � One of the most likable rookie pitchers to come along in quite some time, Willis played a huge part in the Marlins becoming contenders early on � going 9-1 with a 2.08 ERA before the All-Star Break. However Dontrelle faded badly down the stretch (4.60/1.40) and was wisely kept out of the rotation by manager Jack McKeon during the Marlins playoff run. The strikeout totals were impressive (142 in 160.2 IP), if he gets the velocity back during the Spring bump him back up into the top-20 � but his funky delivery has many thinking a breakdown could be forthcoming.



31. Odalis Perez (LA � 910) � In 2002 Odalis posted a 15-10 record with a 3.00 ERA and a sparkling .99 WHIP. The evidence seems to point to that being merely an aberration. Odalis was hit hard (in spacious Dodger Stadium no less) last year as his ERA shot up to 4.52. It tells you something when the Dodgers actively pursue trading him and there are no takers, Perez does not have the best attitude in the world. Make no mistake, Perez can deal when he�s on � but you carry the risk of hopelessly watching him get lit up like a Roman candle.



32. Ben Sheets (MIL � 870) � Sheets deserves a medal of honor for logging 200+ innings for the perennially cursed Brewers two straight years and living to tell about it. Although his ERA remains on the dark side of four, Sheets made a huge strive lowering his ratio from 1.42 to 1.25. It also says something of his ability that the Blue Jays tried to pry him away during the off-season, when contract time comes he will be trade material for a contender. Sheets has a terrific five-pitch arsenal and one day he�ll be an All-Star, it just won�t happen in a Milwaukee uniform.



33. Adam Eaton (SD � 680) � Another young Padre pitcher who I�ve liked for quite a while, who had a detour due to elbow surgery. In his first full year back Eaton went 9-12 with a 4.08/1.32. The popular theory is that pitchers blow up the second year after Tommy John surgery, so definitely target Eaton as a darkhorse this year.



34. Danny Graves (CIN) � Just in case you thought there was a closer controversy in the �Nati � forget about it, pitching coach Don Gullett greeted Graves upon his arrival in camp and addressed him as �Mr. Closer�, returning Graves to a role he held from 1999 � 2002, amassing 121 saves in that span. But after starting 26 games last year, Graves still qualifies as a starter as well, although CDM listed him as a reliever. Graves is not ranked higher among starters because (a) the league hit a hefty .298 against him last year and (b) phenom Ryan Wagner stands poised to become the Reds next closer, perhaps as soon as later on this season.



35. Al Leiter (NYM � 910) � The tabloids thought his best days were behind him when he tried to pitch hurt in the first half, but came through with a sparkling 2.15 ERA in the second half and finished with 15 wins. Leiter�s a left-hander and a true professional, so look past his 38 years when considering him.



36. Livan Hernandez (MTL � 980) � Perhaps the biggest workhorse in baseball, Livan racked up 233 innings and eight complete games last year, and has logged an average of 217 IP for the past six years. En route to winning 15 games last year, Livan was spectacular in the second half recording a 2.67 ERA and 91 K�s in 104.1 IP. Always a risk to rack up a lot of hits and runs allowed, but his midseason delivery change from last year is definitely worth noting.



37. Jeff Weaver (LA � 760) � No more excuses. You are no longer with the Tigers and George won�t be breathing down your neck. It is simply time for Jeff Weaver to either put up or shut up. Look past his six ERA from last year and you will find that Weaver went 3.52/1.21 in 2002. He is worth the gamble late, but if he doesn�t produce in Dodger Stadium he might wan�t to think about taking up that Jerry Springer bouncer gig up full time.



38. Tom Glavine (NYM � 850) � Wound up being the Mets overpaid whipping boy last year, but most of the damage to his ERA seemed to occur when facing his ex-mates from Atlanta. Before calling Glavine washed up, note that he had a 2.97 ERA as recently as 2002, so one last rebound is possible.



39. Brett Myers (PHI � 730) � Seems to be on a similar curve to Ben Sheets early in his career. Look past his late-season struggles last year and you will find that Myers went 9-6 with a 3.65 ERA in the first half. Like Sheets, give Myers 2-3 more years before he truly becomes a top-of-the-rotation type guy.



40. Jeff Suppan (STL � 820) � After recording a 10-7 record with a 3.57 ERA for the Pirates, Suppan was dealt to the Red Sox for the stretch drive where he struggled mightily. But Suppan appears to be in a good situation again as the Cards #3 starter and should have his best year at age 29.



41. David Wells (SD � 890) � On the surface, Wells signing with the Padres appears to be a hometown final-year farewell tour. Sure, Wells doesn�t strike out many, has a bad back, and is on the wrong side of 40 � but Wells had one of the best control seasons in MLB history in 2003, allowing only 20 free passes in 213 IP. Don�t be surprised if Wells chimes in with an ERA under four.



42. Tony Armas (MTL � 750) � Will be monitored closely after sustaining �small tears� in both his labrum and rotator cuff, causing him to miss most of last season which were not surgically repaired. Of course we equate small tears the same as being �slightly pregnant�. If healthy, Armas is capable of being the Expos de facto #1 starter, but that is a big if. Let�s see if Tony makes it through Spring without a setback first.



43. Tim Redding (HOU � 620) � Although he finished 10-14 last year, Redding had a very respectable 3.68 ERA. However he is saddled as the Astros #5 starter and does not work very deep into games, just averaging 5 � innings per start. There is hope that the team will allow him to stretch his starts some more in his second full season in the rotation.



44. Steve Trachsel (NYM � 910) � Notice CDM jumped his value up a bit based on winning 16 games along with coming off ERA�s of 3.38 and 3.78. However his ratio is usually on the wrong side of 1.3 and Trachsel does not strike many out. Expect a slow slide downward from this point on.



45. Carl Pavano (FL � 660) � Yet another Marlin who weighs in large, 6'5" 235. Has an injury history a mile long, but logged over 200 injuries for the first time last year, capped by going 2-0 with a 1.40 ERA in the post-season. Pavano has always had nice potential, and this is a contract year.