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2003 FANTASY BASEBALL - NL STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS


Big changes in the A-T-L...



Again, the AL rankings serve as mere appetizers to the NL pitcher rankings. Making things most interesting was the wheeling and dealing that went on between Atlanta, Philadelphia, New York, and San Francisco. But the best pitching staff of all might just reside on the North side of Chicago, where the Cubs are putting up quite a threesome. But the top two pitchers remain just where they were last year. Here is the imposing NL pitcher rundown�

  1. Randy Johnson (AZ) � Turns 40 on September 10, and I guess there is some slippage. Unit dropped from 372 strikeouts all the way down to 334, but still laps the field in that category. Opponents batting averages also rose from .182 to .190, but the ERA actually went down from 2.49 to 2.32 and increased his W/L record from 21-6 to 24-5. Has started 35 games in each of his four years in Arizona, averaging 258 innings per year. Unit gets 2-3 extra starts per year since fourth/fifth starters will always be skipped over to get the ball back to Unit on that fifth day.


  2. Curt Schilling (AZ) � Are you thinking of dropping Schill in your rankings because of his 5.87 September ERA??? Don�t do it. Schilling has spent the off-season working on martial arts and nutrition, and there are few athletes in any sport who are more focused. Even with the late slump, still finished with a 23-7 record with a 3.23 ERA while reducing his ratio to .97 while increasing his strikeouts from 293 to 316. Will give up home runs but rarely issues a free pass.


  3. Mark Prior (CHC) � May be a little bold ranking the phenom this high, and some think he is an arm injury waiting to happen, in the mold of Kerry Wood. The arm breakdown would be a year or two away, if then. Prior has not even pitched a full season in the majors, so I don�t see a worn out arm at this point. Until then, don�t get left on the curve with a pitcher who punched out 147 batters in just 116.2 innings, along with a 3.32 ERA and 1.17 ratio. Did run into some bad luck with a 6-6 record and did have a propensity of giving up hits and runs in bunches. But those flaws are minor, and look for Prior to be a dark horse Cy Young candidate as soon as this summer. At 750K Prior is a must in CDM.


  4. Roy Oswalt (HOU) � Don�t shy away from pitching Oswalt at the Crooked E, where Oswalt went 9-4 with a 2.70 ERA. Was especially lethal in August, going 6-0 with a 1.22 ERA and holding hitters to a .168 average. Is 33-12 in his two year career with a 2.91 ERA and 1.14 ratio, he is no fluke.


  5. Wade Miller (HOU) � Lost in the glow of Oswalt was Miller�s performance in the second half of 2002, going 11-1 with an ERA of an even two, finishing with a 15-4 record and 144 punchouts in 164.2 IP. ERA of 3.28 and ratio of 1.29 especially impressive considering Wade gave up 19 ER in 20 innings in April/May while dealing with a sore neck.


  6. Greg Maddux (ATL) � Has not slowed much with age, posting ERA�s of 3.00, 3.05, and 2.62 over the past three seasons. On the downside, Maddux�s ratio went up from 1.06 to 1.20 and Maddux only recorded 118 K�s in 34 starts, his lowest strikeout total since 1987.


  7. Kevin Millwood (PHI) � Recovered from a two year slump to post a 18-8 record with 178 strikouts in 217 innings, along with a 3.24 ERA and 1.16 ratio. Leaving the friendly confines of pitching coach Leo Mazzone for Larry Bowa and the volatile Philly fans are often not the best thing for a sometimes shaky pitcher.


  8. Matt Morris (STL) � Did not slip much from his breakout 2001 season, posting a 3.42 ERA and 1.30 ratio following his �01 totals of 3.16/1.26. Strikeouts were still good with 171 in 210.1 innings while posting a 17-9 record, which was down from 22-8. Last year�s totals were more impressive considering the adversity that was brought on from the Darryl Kile tragedy.


  9. Jason Schmidt (SF) � Especially solid at home with the benefit of the major�s best pitchers park, where he recorded a 9-5 record along with just a 2.37 ERA. Batters only hit .218 v. Schmidt while recording 196 strikeouts in 185.1 IP, along with a 3.45 ERA, 1.19 ratio, and a solid 13-8 record receiving plenty of offensive support.


  10. Tom Glavine (NYM) � Like Millwood, Glavine leaves the Atlanta nest for more volatile pastures. Came up huge in �02 posting a 2.96 ERA and 1.28 ratio, down from his �01 totals of 3.57/1.41. Also was 20 game winner as recently as 2000. His strikeout to walk ratio has not been exceptional over the last two years � last year recording just 127 K�s while issuing 78 free passes.


  11. Josh Beckett (FL) � Like Mark Prior, Beckett is a major star waiting to blossom � although he is saddled with a subpar Marlin team and spent much of the �01 season slowed by blisters on several occasions. Beckett did give a small sampling of his electric velocity recording 113 strikeouts in just 107.2 IP, along with a 4.10 ERA and 1.27 ratio. Beckett is as promising as any pitcher this side of Mark Prior.


  12. Matt Clement (CHC) � It all seems to be coming together for Clement, as he was statistically better than Kerry Wood in �02, recording 215 strikeouts over 205 IP to go along with a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 ration, down from 2000-�01 totals of a +5 ERA and +1.50 ratio. Improved on the free passes from 85 in 169.1 innings in �01 to 85 in 205 innings last year.


  13. Kerry Wood (CHC) � Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan both got over several years worth of wildness to become among pitching�s all-time greats, but the jury is still out on K-Wood. Was not as lethal with the strikeouts, recording 217 in 213.2 IP after recording the same number in just 174.1 innings in �01, and issued 97 walks last year as well. ERA (3.66) and ratio (1.24) were decent, but has a pitch count that gets high quickly, often limiting his starts to 5-6 innings.


  14. Odalis Perez (LA) � Went from being a fifth starter for the Braves to a Dodger staff ace, going 15-10 with an impressive 3.00 ERA and an even more impressive ratio of .99. Is still only 25, so do expect Perez to digress.


  15. A. J Burnett (FL) � With improved control came into his own with a 3.30 ERA/1.19 ratio, with 203 K�s in 204.1 innings pitched and a 12-9 record. Currently embroiled in a contract dispute, and knowning Marlins management could be at a new locale by season�s end.


  16. Mike Hampton (ATL) � Hampton is only ranked 33rd among NL pitchers in Krause publications pre-season issue. That one I have to take issue with, and that�s where the parallels between Hampton and Darryl Kile must be noted. In 1997, Kile went 19-7 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.18. Kile then made the mistake of taking the big bucks to sign with Colorado, where he was a disaster including a 6.61 ERA and 1.75 ratio in 1999. Kile then was traded to St. Louis where he went 3.91/1.18 and 3.09/1.29. In 1999 Hampton went 2.90/1.18 with the Astros, then 3.14/1.35 with the Mets in 2000. Then Hampton signed with the Rockies and found the going just as rough, culminating with a 6.15 ERA/1.79 ratio. Throw the Colorado numbers out and expect an immediate rebound with 15-18 wins and an ERA in the low-three�s.


  17. Hideo Nomo (LA) � One of the better strikeout pitchers around, good for about a strikeout an inning every year. Improved from a 4.50/1.35 with the Red Sox in 2001 to 3.39/1.32 in his return with the Dodgers, while throwing in a spiffy 16-6 record.


  18. Damian Moss (SF) � Yet another pitcher leaving Atlanta, but his development should continue pitching for another quality team in a pitcher friendly park. Went 12-6 in 2002 with a 3.42 ERA/1.28 ratio. Strikeout-to-walk ratio is a concern with a111 K�s v. 89 walks in 179 IP.


  19. Javier Vazquez (MTL) � Can be so dominating one minute, and then it comes apart just as quickly. Finished 2002 10-13 with a 3.91 ERA/1.27 ratio. Strikeouts went down to 179 in 230.1 innings last year, down from 208 in 223.2 IP in �01. Finished 2001 as one of the NL�s best pitchers, going 9-2 with a 1.60 ERA.


  20. Kevin Brown (LA) � Was ranked #3 among NL starters going into �02, and still must be given consideration strictly based on past accomplishments, which includes a 23-10 record over �00-�01 along with a 2.61 ERA and a .99 ratio in �00. When he does take the mound is still good for nearly a strikeout an inning, but with a bad back at age 38 the jury is definitely still out on a comeback.


  21. Randy Wolf (PHI) � Usually only good for a .500 record, but had his best season last year with a 3.20 ERA and 1.12 ratio, and can deliver the K�s with 172 punchouts in 210.2 IP after 152 K�s in 163 innings in �01. Still only 26, so his peak is still to come.


  22. Al Leiter (NYM) � Veteran still good for punchouts, with a 172 K�s in 204.1 IP, and had a 200 strikeout as recently as 2000. ERA remains consistently low, sitting at 3.20, 3.31 and 3.48 over the past three years. Ratio did go up from 1.20 and 1.29.


  23. Vicente Padilla (PHI) � Huge breakthrough year with a 3.28 ERA/1.22 ratio over 206 IP along with a 14-11 slate. Strikeouts (128) were not huge and was battling a sore elbow in the second half. May regress a little this year.


  24. Paul Byrd (ATL) � Late bloomer emerged with the Royals last year, going 17-11 with a 3.90 ERA, 1.15 ratio. Not a strikeout pitcher (less than five per nine innings), but may get even better joining the revamped Atlanta staff.


  25. Brian Lawrence (SD) � Is a solid dependable starter on a below-average Padre team, posting a 3.69 ERA/1.34 ratio in 210 innings pitched. Allowed 230 hits but keeps the base-on-balls to a minimum. Not a ton of upside, but shouldn�t go wrong in the later rounds.


  26. Tony Armas Jr. (MTL) � Only 24 years old with three years experience, and delivers nice strikeout totals (134 in 164.1 IP in �02). Has a 4.24 ERA along with a 1.36 ratio, but don�t be surprised if he lowers those numbers in year no. 4.


  27. Oliver Perez (SD) � The best of several fine pitching prospects in the Padre team, Perez posted an impressive 94 strikeouts in just 90 IP in his rookie season with a 3.50 ERA/1.32 ratio. Is being handled with kid gloves, and was ordered not to pitch winter ball, although Perez snuck in eight innings with a Mexican League team. Look for Oliver to be a no. 3 or 4 starter in San Diego this year.


  28. Kip Wells (PIT) � After being traded from the American League, really emerged with a 12-14 record, along with a 3.58 ERA, 1.35 ratio and 134 strikeouts over 198.1 innings pitched. Turns 26 this year, so an All-Star season is very possible.


  29. Kirk Reuter (SF) � Barely throws hard enough to break a pane of glass (230 K�s over the past three seasons, but is durable and good for 12-15 wins per year. Substantially lowered his ERA/ratio from 4.42/1.43 in �01 to 3.23/1.27 last year.


  30. Tomo Ohka (MTL) - At age 26 lowered his ERA/ratio from 5.47/1.52 to 3.18/1.24 last season over 192.2 innings, and posted a fine 13-8 record in the process. Beware that Ohka has the potential of being shelled in any potential start, giving up six earned runs to the Cubs without recording an out in one start, and giving up five earned runs in one inning pitched in another.


  31. Kris Benson (PIT) � Got his feet back wet after missing 2001 with Tommy John surgery, and came back from some shaky outings to post a 7-2 record with a 4.15 ERA in the second half, along with 79 K�s in 130.1 innings pitched. Pitchers historically return to near 100 percent in the second year after elbow repairs, so numbers similar to 2000 (3.85/1.34/184 K�s/217.2 IP).


  32. Ben Sheets (MIL) � Finally started to come around in August and September, recording a 6-3 record along with a 3.57 ERA. Also utilized more of his untapped velocity, recording 170 K�s in 216.2 IP. Unfortunately, Brewer pitchers historically wear out their arms sooner rather than later, which somewhat limits Sheets upside.


  33. Elmer Dessens (AZ) � Looked upon as filling the third starter position with the D-Backs, Dessens cannot be counted on for strikeouts, but posted a fine 3.03 ERA along with a 1.25 ration. Expect the ERA to digress but expect a huge improvement from his 7-8 record with the Reds over 31 starts.


  34. Brett Myers (PHI) � Not as highly touted as Mark Prior, Josh Beckett, or perhaps even Oliver Perez � but a decent prospect in his own right. Recorded a 4-5 slate with a 4.25 ERA, 1.42 ratio over 72 innings. Strikeout to walk ratio (34-29) was not exceptional. Only 22, so expect some rough spots over the next few seasons.


  35. Jason Jennings (COL) � NL Rookie of the Year after posting a 16-8 record along with a 4.52 ERA/1.46 ratio. Was excellent on the road with a 3.34 ERA, but as expected posted a 5.65 at Coors Field, where anyone short of God, Pedro, or Unit should be avoided. Good player to choose late provided that you find a way to only use him for road starts.





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