KAC 2004 FANTASY BASEBALL - NL OUTFIELD RANKINGS
PLENTY OF OUTFIELD DEPTH IN NL
The selection of National League outfielders is not nearly as impressive as last year, the likes of veterans Luis Gonzalez, Sammy Sosa, and Barry Bonds are all a year older. Brian Giles, Bobby Abreu, Chipper Jones and Lance Berkman slipped somewhat last year while Shawn Green comes off an injury riddled campaign. But the #1 man on the list appears to be aspiring for even higher numbers�
- Albert Pujols (STL � 1840) � It could be the final year of outfield eligibility for the man who has had the best first three statistical seasons of anyone in history. Wisely, the Cardinals recently inked Pujols to a 7 year-$100 million contract, if he produces anything close to his current averages (.334/122/38/127) he will be worth every penny.
- Preston Wilson (COL � 1370) � Another example of Coors Field turning a merely good player, and turning him into a fantasy superstar. Wilson hit .302 at home last year, hitting 21 HR�s with 84 RBI. But he was no slouch on the road neither, going .260/15/57. On a down note Wilson fell to 14 stolen bases after 20 in each of the previous two seasons. I see no reason why Wilson can�t raise his overall average above .300.
- Barry Bonds (SF � 1690) � Sitting at 658 career home runs, a stormy controversial run toward the all-time career home run record begins this year. Barry�s value in the fantasy game is slightly less than that in real life. The batting averages (.328/.370/.341) have been nearly as spectacular as the home runs, but the value is diminished as Bonds only gets an average of three AB�s per game due to the frequent walks. Although Bonds hit 45 home runs in just 132 games, he only drove in 90 runs. Bonds has also seen his incredible slugging percentage decline since 2001, dropping from .863 to .799 to .749. Barry still puts up amazing numbers, but expect frequent days off. Bonds goal for this year is to hit close to 50 HR�s which would give him a shot at catching Hank Aaron by the end of 2005.
- Sammy Sosa (CHC � 1410) � Yes, there is the embarrassing corked bat incident, along with widespread speculation that he is much older than his program age. But despite missing 25 games, Sosa hit 40 HR with 103 RBI and 99 runs. This may be a good year to bid low on Sammy, just in case he is still really only 35.
- Lance Berkman (HOU � 1390) � Tried to play through nagging injuries last year, and as a result dropped from .292/42/128 to .288/25/93. This is Berkman�s contract year, so expect numbers closer to 2002 than �03.
- Andrew Jones (ATL � 1380) � Labeled a disappointment in some circles due to a low batting average, Andrew has strung together four straight seasons of 34+ home runs while averaging 105 RBI and 105 runs. Was once a 20+ steal guy but has only stolen 12 in the past two years combined. The loss of teammates Javy Lopez and Gary Sheffield through free agency could also hurt.
- Chipper Jones (ATL � 1440) � Production has fallen off slightly in recent years, but you can�t complain about anyone who has strung together sixth straight .300 plus seasons along with eight consecutive years of 100+ RBI. He�s not at a more valuable position (third base) or steal anymore, but is still money in the bank.
- Bobby Abreu (PHI � 1630) � Quietly produces solid five category states usually in the .300/100/20/100/30 range, although his numbers were off for much of last season, but came on late hitting .335 after the All-Star break.
- Juan Pierre (FL � 1470) � One player who actually benefited from leaving Coors Field, since he was not a home run threat to begin with. Pierre is the best base stealer in the Majors period, stealing 65 bases last year while hitting .305 playing in all 162 games.
Austin Kearns (CIN � 750) � For two months Kearns was one of the hottest players in the game, hitting 13 HR/46 RBI through the end of May before hurting his shoulder, which eventually necessitated season-ending surgery. Look for Kearns to pick up with he left off, and take his place among the NL elite outfielders this year. A must-have in CDM if healthy. UPDATE: The Reds asked for (and were granted) special permission to use the DH for Spring home games, to get Kearns some AB's as he is still unable to play the field - that is a red flag as far as availibility for the start of the season is concerned.
- Brian Giles (SD � 1360) � Another player who tailed off badly amidst swirling trade rumors, falling to 20 HR and 88 RBI after four consecutive 35+ home run seasons. San Diego�s new park may not be as favorable as what Giles is used to, especially being a left handed hitter.
- Shawn Green (LA � 1440) � At least we found out the reason for Green�s drastic drop in power, only hitting 19 home runs after 91 the previous two seasons, as it turned out Green was gamely playing through a bad shoulder that ultimately needed surgery. Green could bounce back to the 30 HR range, but the lineup around him is still lacking.
- Corey Patterson (CHC � 870) � A tremendous five-category break-out half-season, hitting .298 with 49 runs, 13 HR , 55 RBI and 16 SB�s before it all came to a grinding halt thanks to a torn ACL. All signs point to Patterson being ready by opening day, but drastically curtail the stolen base totals from last year.
- Geoff Jenkins (MIL � 710) � Last year we finally saw what Jenkins could do when healthy, hitting .296 with 28 HR and 95 RBI in just 124 games before a broken thumb knocked him out for the final month. This is Geoff�s contract year, and actually he is not asking for an outrageous amount of paper to stay in Milwaukee, nonetheless Jenkins at this moment remains a prime July 31 trade candidate.
- Jim Edmonds (STL � 1170) � Probably one of the more underrated hitters around, Emonds belted 39 HR�s in just 137 games coming off a pair of .300 seasons. But Edmonds had shoulder surgery in the off-season and is a question mark for opening day. If healthy, he is a top-ten candidate on this list.
- Scott Podsednik (MIL � 980) � Was on the radar screen of absolutely no one at this time last year, Pod wound up hitting .314 with 100 runs and 43 stolen bases. But Podsednik was never a highly touted prospect and could fall off as quickly as you can say Pat Listach. Still, Pod figures to still steal some bases at the very least.
- Pat Burrell (PHI � 820) - Went into a season-long slump, hitting only .209 in 522 AB�s. Still can�t be ignored since Burrell hit 37 HR with 116 RBI the year before. Worth rolling the dice on at this point.
- J.D. Drew (ATL � 680) � A perennial disappointment due to injuries, perhaps a change of scenery can lead to a breakout year. When healthy he has demonstrated that he can hit the ball a long way, as he hit one blast in Busch Stadium last year to an area that only Big Mac would ever dare visit. Give him 150 games and he is a definite threat for 40 HR�s. UPDATE: Drew hit three home runs in his first three Spring games, affirming possibilites of a huge breakout year.
- Richard Hidalgo (HOU � 970) � Isn�t that supposed to be some sort of Western, a Louis Lamore novel perhaps??? Actually, this Hidalgo bounced back strong after a two-year tailspin, hitting .309 with 28 HR and 88 RBI � all this after being a big draft day question at this time last year after nearly getting capped in an off-season carjacking. There�s room for improvement in the RBI department, as he should do better than 1 HR in 142 AB�s with men in scoring position merely by accident.
- Adam Dunn (CIN � 690) � Was an early candidate to win the NL home run title last year, but continuing a trend from the latter half of the 2002 season � was having a hard time staying above the Mendoza line. Some may remember Mark McGwire having seasons like that early in his career, so there is hope. When Dunn does get on base he even steals a base on occasion. A risky pick to be sure, but has a good a shot as anyone (Barry Bonds included) to hit 50 home runs this year.
- Larry Walker (COL � 1180) � The Hall of Fame argument of Walker should be interesting in a few years. L-Walk is a .385 lifetime hitter in Coors Field, with 512 RBI in just 570 games. However Walker is only a .279 lifetime hitter on the road. Injuries have slowed Walker considerably, only hitting 16 HR�s in 143 games last year. However Walker has bounced back before so don�t count him out. If you can find a way to platoon him for home games he�ll probably still be worth your while.
- Jeromy Burnitz (COL � 810) � After 31 home runs in 124 games split between the Mets and Dodgers, Burnitz in Coors Field sounds very tempting. However, Jeromy is a lousy average hitter and a lousy fielder. He will be hitting seventh in the Rocks lineup and will be removed frequently for defensive replacements. But he could be among the league leaders in bombs.
Luis Gonzalez (AZ � 1460) � Likely to be overvalued on draft day. The 57 HR, 142 RBI season of a few years back is just a memory, although Gonzo has been good for a near .300 average and over 100 ribbies in each of the last two seasons, along with hitting 26 and 28 bombs. The real problem lies with a damaged elbow ligament. Like a California faultline, some feel it is only a matter of time before it gives way.
- Ken Griffey Jr (CIN � 700) � Fool me once shame on you, fool me 15 times � well you know the drill. It isn�t a matter of if but when he suffers a major injury. In his limited time last year (166 AB�s), Griffey still hit 13 home runs, including a 5-game homer streak just before going down for good. The best course of strategy would be get a two-month tear out of Griff, then find a desperate rival to peddle him off too.
- Dave Roberts (LA � 680) � A nice CDM price-tag for someone who can be downright prolific in the basestealing department, with 40 SB�s in just 107 games last year. However Roberts is not a good average hitter, is hurt often, and won�t have a lineup capable of driving him in on many occasions.
- Marlon Byrd (PHI � 650) � From June 1 on, Byrd was a .325 hitter in just his rookie season. The only problem was that Byrd did not contribute much in either the steals or power department. Hitting leadoff, Byrd nonetheless is a good bet to cross the plate 100 times this season.
- Cliff Floyd (NYM � 1030) � About the best thing the Mets had going last year, hitting .290 with 18 HR/68 RBI before getting electing to get his Achilles tendon repaired. Having the surgery early ensures his chances of being healthy for the start of 2004, but like Griffey, Drew, etc. it isn�t a matter of if as in when.
- Reggie Sanders (STL � 1060) � Since 1998, Sanders has seen bent on a goal of playing for every single team in the National League. Reds, Padres, Braves, D-Backs, Giants, Padres, and now Cardinals. If you believe in numerology stay away from Sanders because it tends to be odd numbered years he goes off in, including 31 HR�s last year and 33 in 2001. One thing that is a certainty is a contribution of about 15-20 steals.
- Carl Everett (MTL � 880) � Got over 500 AB�s for the first time in his career in 2003, hitting 28 HR�s and 92 RBI split between Texas and the White Sox. Everett should start off well again this year with the Expos early Puerto Rico slate, but the plastic grass will not be good for the oft-injured Everett.
- Mike Cameron (NYM � 1180) � If he could just hit for average. Cameron is good for 20+ home runs along with 20+ SB�s. It�s unfortunate however that Cameron is stuck in yet another lousy hitters park.
- Raul Mondesi (PIT � 1200) � He is much-maligned and constant trade bait, but Mondesi is a nice power/speed combo, usually good for 20+ in both the homer and steals department. Move to Pittsburgh should be a good one for Raul, as he could be the Pirates cleanup hitter.
- Jason Bay (PIT � 400) � Pirate rookie outfielder is coming off a torn labrum, and is not due to resume throwing until Mid-March. Jason hit 20 HR�s and stole 23 bases in the Pacific Coast League last year. He should get an opportunity to produce similar numbers in the Burgh, which would make him a steal in CDM.
- Juan Encarncion (LA � 1110) � Another five-category threat, Ency averaged over 20 HR�s and SB in his two years in Florida. Unfortunately, Ency goes to an even worse NL hitters park, so don�t expect much of an improvement. His stock would improve if he ever got traded to one of the newer parks.
- Moises Alou (CHC � 1090) � Rebounded in his second year on the North Side, hitting 22 HR�s with 91 RBI and a .280 average. At age 37 don�t expect things to get much better however.
- Brad Wilkerson (MTL � 690) � Is developing into a solid 20 HR, 80 RBI guy who will pitch in a few steals and a decent average. In his third full year, a bigger breakout is possible.
- Jay Payton (SD � 1000) � A popular conception would be to assume that Payton will drop off the face of the earth quicker than you can say Jeffrey Hammonds now that he is out of Coors Field. However, a closer examination of Payton�s 2003 season discloses that he hit for power on the road (.281/15/39) as well as at Coors (.322/13/50). Don�t overbid, but don�t dismiss Payton neither.
- Steve Finley (AZ � 1110) � 39 years old, but one of the best conditioned athletes you will ever see. Is still good for 20+ home runs and has stolen double-figures in stolen bases every year in his 15 year career with the exception of 1999.
- Craig Biggio (HOU � 1050) � After 15 full seasons with the Astros, Biggio is still good for 100+ runs and around 15 jimmy-jacks, but his batting average has tailed off in recent years. 39 more hits give Biggio 2,500 in his career, but is a long-shot to reach 3,000.
- Marquis Grissom (SF � 940) � Long known as a leadoff-type hitter, Grissom has hit double figures in home runs in each of the last 12 seasons, and even managed to hit 20 out along with an even .300 average last year. But his home park plus age should work more against him this year.
- Tike Redman (PIT � 570) � Slated to lead off for the Pirates, Redman could be good for some cheap steals. Hit .330 with 36 runs in just 230 AB�s last year.
