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'03 GOLF PREVIEW

'03 NFL DRAFT PROFILES

The AL outfielder rundown was nice, but now we get into the real fun. Let�s just say that the NL outfielder lineup again is fully nuked with the usual (Sosa, Vlad, Bonds) � along with a couple of new choices out of the Colorado Rockies. For NL only leads, it makes up for missing out on the AL�s Big Four at shortstop. The NL outfielder pool is so huge that we�re including 40 this year in our rankings, which is as follows�

1. Vladimir Guerrero (MTL) � According to Krause publications, Vlad and Alex Rodriguez are in a flat-footed tie for the highest rotisserie value at $43 each. Has hit over .300 (.322 career hitter) in each of his six MLB seasons, while averaging 39 HR�s and going over 100 runs/RBI in each of the past five years. The stolen bases have entered his game in just the past two seasons, where he has gotten 77 of his 114 career steals. As an extra bonus this year Vlad has 22 games in a bandbox in Puerto Rico, where the dimensions are 315/350/400/350/315. Things get even better next year when the plight of the Expos is finally ironed out, but for now enjoy .330/110/40/120/35.



2. Sammy Sosa (CHC) � I won�t beat around the bush, I�m worried that Sammy might be a tad older than his advertised age of 34. Either that or he started using �inferior equipment� last year. I would go on the field during BP and ask him that, but he might go Buzz Aldrin on me � so I�ll leave it to the SI reporters. Whatever the case Sammy dropped from a ridiculous .328/146/64/160 in 2001 to .288/122/49/108 last year. Has hit 290 HR�s (58 per year) for the past five seasons and his next bomb will be career number 500. Has also missed only 23 games since 1997, another plus.



3. Barry Bonds (SF) � No one was expecting 73 home runs again, but Barry had far from a disappointing encore as he managed to win a batting title with a .370 average, along with 117 runs, 46 HR, and 110 RBI. However, the BA loses some of its statistical weight as Bonds only had 403 official AB�s despite playing in 143 games, walking a record breaking 198 times on his way to a .582 on-base percentage. Bonds �02 numbers are even more remarkable considering that he was struggling with hamstring problems much of the season. Biggest worry is that pitchers will get even smarter and that Bonds gets even fewer AB�s. Expect regular rest as Bonds is 38 years old, but should still be good for an average well above .300 and 40+ home runs.



4. Albert Pujols (STL) � Position versatility (eligible at first base and third base as well) gives Al a very slight nod over many other worthy candidates at this point.



5. Lance Berkman (HOU) � Was headed for monster numbers at midseason with 29 HR�s and 81 RBI at the break, but had a mortal 13 HR and 47 RBI in the second half. Average was much higher at home (.320) than on the road (.264) but the power numbers were surprisingly higher on the road (22 HR, 67 RBI) than at home (20 HR, 61 RBI). New teammate Jeff Kent could offer the protection necessary to get Lance into the Sammy/Bonds area.



6. Bobby Abreu (PHI) � Best five category threat once you get past Vlad. Abreu not happy about the prospect of leading off this year, although butting heads with manager Larry Bowa is never advisable. Dropped from 31 HR, 110 RBI in �01 to 20 HR/85 RBI last year, but stole 31 bases and rose his BA from .289 to .308.



7. Shawn Green (LA) � Got off to a horrid start last year until something called the Milwaukee Brewers showed up on the schedule. First year in LA (24 HR, 99 RBI) was relatively quiet, but has rebounded to hit 91 HR, along with 231 runs and 239 RBI. On the downside, his stolen bases dropped from 24 in 2000 and 20 in �01 to just eight last year.



8. Brian Giles (PIT) � Has now quietly churned out four consecutive 35+ home run seasons, and is a career .302 hitter. Also contributed a career high 15 steals last year. One has to think that the hapless Pirates will trade Giles for yet more prospects one of these years.



9. Preston Wilson (COL) � Hit only .243 with the Marlins last year, but the 30 point altitude bump along with a return to 2000/�01 form should put Preston into the .300 range. Hit 31 HR along with 121 RBI in 2000 before missing time with injuries the past two seasons, so look for career highs in those categories as well.



10. Pat Burrell (PHI) � Turns that magical age of 26 this season, and is showing steady annual (18 HR/79 RBI in �00, 27/89 in �01, 37/116 last year) improvement, so this year should become an absolute stud, especially with added protection in the Philly lineup.



11. Luis Gonzalez (AZ) � Gonzo appeared to peak during his magical �01 season (.325/128/57/142), dropping to a merely mortal 28 HR and 103 RBI last year. But as I say with all D-Back players, he will never have to worry about facing Unit or Schilling.



12. Chipper Jones (ATL) � Move from third base into the outfield a bummer for fantasy purposes, and it appeared Jones struggled at the plate for a while making the transition. Was solid however in the second half (.353/17/49) and has now hit over .300 in each of the past five seasons. Also rarely misses a game and is as sure as it gets to finish at .320/110/35/100.



13. Larry Walker (COL) � LW�s value takes a serious hit this season as it is no secret that the non-contending Rockies would love to move him. His frequent injuries also contribute to dropping his value. Has been a perennial BA monster, hitting .353 since 1997, but has failed to reach 500 AB�s in each of the past five seasons. Even hits on the road, as a .312 average last year would attest, but only eight of his 26 HR came away from home.



14. Andrew Jones (ATL) � Batting average (.251/.264) has struggled the past two years, but otherwise is good for a sure fire 100 runs, 35 HR, and 100 RBI at the minimum. Still only 25 years old, Jones could easily net 40+ home runs and 120 RBI this year.



15. Gary Sheffield (ATL) � The third member of a power packed Brave outfield. Dropped from .311/98/36/100 with LA in �01 to .307/82/25/84 last year. Another negative is Sheffield is a certainty to miss a chunk of time every year.



16. Cliff Floyd (BOS) � Used as trade bait by the Marlins, then Expos, before playing out his option with the Red Sox and signed with the Mets, so in just one year he is running out of teams on the East Coast to play for. Was a five-cat stud back in �01, finishing at .317/123/31/103/18 before falling to .288/86/28/79/15 last year. Injuries have taken their toll, so expect occasional days off and a reduction in steals.



17. Ryan Klesko (SD) � Stolen bases dropped from 23 in both 2000 and 2001 to just six last year, but finally reached the .300 level, along with 29 HR and 95 RBI. Nagging injuries usually cost him 15-20 games a year. Also eligible at first base.



18. Jim Edmonds (STL) � Has fallen from an MVP caliber season (.295/129/42/108/) in 2000 to .311/96/28/83 last year. Consistently misses in the neighborhood of 10-20 games per season.



19. Adam Dunn (CIN) � We now hit the Cincy question mark portion of the rankings. 6�6� 235 lb slugger was gold in the first half going .300/17/54, with some stolen bases thrown in. But slumped to an awful .190/9/17 in the second half. Still would not give up on him, as he has monster power potential plus ended up with 19 steals last year. I till think Dunn is on track to eventually become a fierce Dave Parker-like force, it�s just a matter of adjusting to the adjustments NL pitchers obviously made at mid-season.



20. Austin Kearns (CIN) � The safest bet among Red outfielders, and at just 22 a huge prospect. In 107 games went .315/66/13/56/6 before being shut down after seriously doing a hamstring. Good news from that is that it keeps him undervalued and makes him a good selection in CDM.



21. Ken Griffey Jr. (CIN) � How the mighty have fallen. Season was a disaster from Spring Training on, and finished .264/8/23 in just 197 AB�s. Off-season reports on Griff�s strength and conditioning programs have been very positive, and is said to be at 100 percent heading into camp. Obviously we have to see it to believe it. If he makes it through camp without any hiccups, feel free to move Griff two or three pegs up the board, remember he was .271/100/40/118 as recently as 2000, his first year with the Reds.



22. Juan Encarnacion (FL) � Has bounced around a little since being a disappointment in Detroit, but appears to finally be attaining his potential at age 27. Contributed in all five categories in �02, finishing .271/77/24/85/21. Will also be hitting behind a couple of jackrabbits in the Florida lineup. Don�t worry about Keith Millar changing his mind on going to Japan and returning to the Marlins, as the front office will quickly move his salary to the highest bidder (possibly Boston).



23. Juan Pierre (FL) � We now reach the stolen base portion of the draft. Pierre�s about as sure of a stolen base producer than anyone in baseball, stealing 93 bags over the past two years. Will be asked to run even more being out of Colorado, without the altitude and power hitters following him in the lineup. Pierre and teammate Luis Castillo should be an entertaining duo on the basepaths. One huge red flag though, Pierre�s BA slumped from .327 to .287 last year, and hit only .247 away from Colorado. Pierre�s also offers absolutely zero power.



24. Roger Cedeno (NYM) � Has bounced around like a bad penny over the past five seasons: Dodgers, Mets, Astros, Tigers, Mets. Has alleged reputation of not getting along with managers, including a spat with Detroit manager Phil Garner that got him a one way ticket out of town. Don�t get too concerned over that as the line of players who didn�t get along with Garner forms at the right, and there were no reported issues with Cedeno and volatile Mets manager Bobby Valentine, who is now also out of the managerial ranks. Cedeno stole 66 bases back in 1999, along with 55 in 2001 � but dropped to 25 steals in 149 games last year. However Cedeno was only caught four times, and I expect new manager Art Howe to give Roger the green light more in 2003.



25. Jay Payton (COL) � In 74 AB�s in Coors Field after his trade to the Rockies, Payton went .473 with five home runs and 19 RBI. That is reason enough for consideration. Also had a .291/63/17/62 season with the Mets back in 2000, so there is potential. However there will be competition for the final outfield spot with Gabe Kapler. But with Larry Walker�s injury history, along with his named being openly involved in trade talks, there should be plenty of opportunity to get Jay 450-500 AB�s.



26. Jose Cruz Jr. (SF) � Stole 32 bases to go along with 34 HR in 2001, but dropped to just seven SB�s in 124 games last year, with his BA slumping from .274 to .245 and home runs dropping to 18. Should be a good fit in a revamped SF lineup this year, so expect better numbers.



27. Reggie Sanders (FA) � After participating on World Series teams with Arizona and San Francisco the past two seasons, Reggie is still looking for work and may end up latching on with the Dodgers. Although he usually carries a low BA, Reggie provides solid, across the board stats finishing last year at .250/75/23/85/18. Also hit 33 HR�s with the D-Backs in �01.



28. Eli Marrero (STL) � Also eligible at catcher, Marerro went .262/63/18/66/14 last year in 397 AB�s. Don�t look for Marrero to see much time behind the dish, but J.D. Drew will miss at least the first quarter of the season, so look for manager Tony LaRussa to find ways to get Marrero�s name on the lineup card.



29. Alex Sanchez (MIL) � Fantastic speed potential, with 37 SB�s in just 112 games last year. However makes a ton of mistakes on the basepaths and the Brewers will likely be holding open auditions in the outfield all season.



30. Dave Roberts (LA) � A classic illustration to my theory of not worrying much about stolen bases on draft day. Roberts was an early waiver-wire pickup in most leagues, and went on to steal 45 bases in just 127 games. Roberts latched on after being an astute student of stolen base guru Maury Wills during Spring Training. Roberts may have a battle finding playing time should the team acquire Reggie Sanders.



31. Steve Finley (AZ) � Coming off a .275/66/14/73/11 season in �01, was thought to be washed up in many circles but came through with a huge .287/82/25/89/16 season last year. Don�t worry much on the fact that he�s age 38, Finley keeps himself in fantastic condition and quietly contributes in all five categories.



32. Marlon Byrd (PHI) � One of baseball�s top prospects who must be given draft day consideration, and is an eventual 30-30 threat. Two red flags must be thrown for this season though. #1, Byrd is slated to be the Phils #8 hitter, not a good position � especially for an NL team. Also, Byrd had to address some off-the-field anger management issues in the off-season, and on the field will have to address volatile manager Larry Bowa. There could be fireworks in the Phillies clubhouse.



33. Corey Patterson (CHC) � Early stolen bases got him a ton of waiver wire action back in April, with Patterson finishing /253/71/14/54/18 in 153 games. Will be a five-cat stud eventually, but be patient at age 23 and hope for a decent BA along with 20 homers/steals.



34. Mark Kotsay (SD) � What you see is exactly what you are going to get, but in Kotsay�s case that is not bad as he quietly contributes in all areas. Last year hit .292 with 82 runs, 17 HR, 61 RBI and 11 stolen bases. Had 19 SB�s as recently as 2000 and has hit over .290 in each of the past three seasons.



35. Gabe Kapler (COL) � Yes, we�ve just named the fourth Rockie outfielder. The main criticism of Kapler is that the gym freak has focused too much on the bodybuilding and not enough on the flexibility over the years. Only hit two home runs in 315 AB�s last year, but had a .362 average with a HR and 11 RBI in 67 AB�s at Coors Field. Is a surprising stolen base force, with 23 SB�s in �01 in just 134 games. Playing time will be an issue, but for all of Kapler�s faults remember that Colorado even turned Dante Bichette into a superstar.



36. Brad Wilkerson (MTL) � Also eligible at first base, Wilkerson finished .266/92/20/59 in 507 AB�s in his first full MLB season. Nice fill-in player to use at two different positions.



37. Geoff Jenkins (MIL) � Several frustrating injury-plagued season culminated last June after landing wrong reaching a base, leaving his foot in a sick, cartoonish-like angle � and Jenkins with a scream that could be heard halfway to Madison. Amazingly, there were no fractures involved � and Jenkins should be ready for Spring Training. Is still only 28 and had a /303/100/34/94 season as recently as 2000.



38. J.D. Drew (STL) � Slumped from .323/27/73 in 109 games in �01, to .252/18/56 in 135 games last year, and is coming off knee surgery as well as having a cyst removed from his foot. Estimated return to the Cardinal lineup appears to be late May or even June, so this appears to be another throwaway year for Drew.



39. Richard Hidalgo (HOU) � Had one of the best statistical seasons back in 2000, going .314/118/44/122/13. But has slumped badly the past two seasons and has fallen out of favor with Houston management. Also suffered a gunshot wound during the unrest in his native Venezuela during the offseason. However Darryl Ward was traded during the offseason, so there should still be room for Hidalgo in the Astro outfield.



40. Moises Alou (CHC) � Oft-injured Alou was a colossal disappointment in his first year with the Cubs, going .275/15/61 in 132 games. That was a drop from .355/30/114, and .331/27/108 his last two seasons with Houston. One trade possibility has Alou moving on to San Francisco where his dad now manages.

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