KAC 2005 FANTASY BASEBALL - NL OUTFIELD RANKINGS


CONSIDER ABREU OVER BELTRAN



If you thought the offering among American League outfielders was something, just wait until you see the National League. Sammy Sosa may be gone, but there will still be plenty to choose from amongst the 16 teams. The fun starts with Carlos Beltran, followed by a bunch of gambles. Can Barry Bonds hold himself together for one more year. Can Milton Bradley keep his anger in check for one week??? Not to mention that what was L.A. markets other temperamental outfielder, Jose Guillen is now also in the Senior Circuit. Do you feel lucky today??? � Here are the rankings.


  1. Carlos Beltran (NYM) � The last 12 months have been strange regarding Beltran fantasy wise. First, Beltran gets out of Dodge (KC � same thing), that was a good thing. Now he�s going to be in Houston, which sounded good at first until you realize that Jimy Williams was the manager and that he might as well keep his runners in straightjackets � bad. But then Jimy gets fired in favor of run-happy Phil Garner � fantastic!!! But the Astros are fading out of playoff contention and Beltran appears headed for another trade before his contract runs out, bad. But Carlos helps lead his team to a tremendous second half, hitting 17 home runs while stealing 27 bases � making him a top notch fantasy player after all. But Beltran�s value had gone so much through the roof at that point that Houston could not possibly pony up the $100,000,000 plus required to keep him � so now he will be playing next door to LaGuardia, and I think actually the airport has cozier dimensions � not to mention that high profile free agents often struggle under New York scrutiny. What will help is that I imagine that Willie Randolph (like Garner) will have his players aggressive on the basepaths. Is Beltran more valuable than Vlad Guerrero??? If he can hit .300 as was the case in 2001 and �03, then perhaps. But Vlad is sure to challenge for a batting title while a bad wheel could stop Beltran�s running game in a New York minute. Carlos leads my NL outfield rankings, but slot him behind Vlad overall.


  2. Bobby Abreu (PHI) � If you like Beltran�s game, but are unable to snag him � you might actually be better off if you can get the vastly under-rated Abreu. While Beltran�s hitting can be inconsistent, Abreu has delivered .300+ averages in six of the last seven years, and the off year was still .289. His homers/steals dropped off slightly for a couple of years, but rebound with a 30 homer/40 steal year in 2004. If your league rewards walks, then you might be interested to know that Bobby was second to Barry Bonds in all of baseball in that department � resulting in a fabulous on-base percentage. If Abreu is second to Beltran, it isn�t by much.


  3. Miguel Cabrera (FL) � Delivered every bit of the hype placed upon him in the last year, finishing his first full year at .294/101/33/112. And it took a major slump in September for the average to finally dip below .300, but if you recall the Marlins had a an unusually tiring travel schedule during that month, so you could actually give Cabrera a mulligan there. If the birth certificate is right, Cabrera doesn�t even turn 22 until a couple weeks after the season starts. He should be near the top of this list for many years to come.


  4. Jim Edmonds (STL) � If you were to rank baseball�s true unsung heroes, Edmonds may be at the top of that list. Every year Edmonds flirts with 40 home runs and a .300 average � along with triple-digit runs and RBI. Edmonds does well average wise despite a high strikeout total. Edmonds is smack in the middle of heaven hitting between Pujols, Rolen, and Larry Walker and will continue to produce.


  5. Barry Bonds (SF) � Remember when Berman used to call him Barry �U.S� Bonds � actually Barry B.S. Bonds is more like it. The sound bites from his recent rambling diatribe from Arizona is destined to go down right alongside Allen Iverson�s 'WE�RE TALKING ABOUT PRACTICE' in history � without an asterisk. And actually there are no asterisks in baseball, I don�t think anyone who won leagues with Bonds the last few years will be asked to give back their trophies anytime soon. And even after the cartoon-like 73 home run season, the numbers are still crazy. 46, 45, and 45 home runs, batting averages of .370, .341, and .362. And on-base percentage of .609 last year. If you forget about what an A-hole he is for a few seconds, you will find that Bonds� off-season workout regimen is near-legendary and that when he gets his pitch � he never misses, that�s more than BALCO folks. What hurts fantasy wise is that Bonds walks so often (an incredible 232 times last year alone) that it hurts some of the other offensive totals, although B.S did score 129 times last year. I have Bonds knocked down a couple of spots this year because his knee is already giving him fits in the spring and Father Time will catch up with him sooner or later. Or just maybe he can start sucking enough that opposing hurlers may actually pitch to him.


  6. Adam Dunn (CIN) � I may be ranking Dunn high here, but he�s the one young player in the game capable of hitting a McGwire-esque 55-60 home runs in a year. The other similarity to a young McGwire is that Dunn strikes out an incredible amount, a record breaking 195 times in 2004 alone. Still, Dunn was able to improve his BA to .266 � there is a worry that the BA will go down if the strikeouts continue at that pace, but Dunn is the best bet to win the All-Star home run contest this year, and the best bet to lead all of baseball in homers this year.


  7. Carlos Lee (MIL) � Some actually have dropped Carlos a bit after getting traded to the Brewers, but I don�t think it will be that bad offensively. He will have decent (not great) hitters surrounding him and he�ll be in a good hitters park. Being in the pitching heavy NL Central will hurt somewhat though. Still you�re looking at a nice .300/100/30/100 season with a few steals sprinkled in.


  8. Corey Patterson (CHC) � Resounded-ly answered the question on whether his speed would return coming off an ACL tear by stealing 32 bases last year. But the other numbers were off his 2003 effort where he went .298/49/13/55 in exactly one half a season. About all that�s left to ask is to return to the .300 level while getting into the 30 HR level.


  9. Juan Pierre (FL) � Kind of look at him as the NL�s answer to Carl Crawford, except that Pierre has exactly zero power. I am also worried about the drop in stolen bases last year from 65 to 45. Although 45-50 is still worth the money, Pierre�s value would take a major hit if he fell into the 25-30 SB range. As long as Pierre hits first and Luis Castillo second � I don�t see that happening.


  10. Jason Bay (PIT) � If you ever seen his sister, who pitched for the Canadian national team during the Olympics, you would forget all about Jennie Finch. Bay wasn�t too bad himself in winning NL rookie of the year with 26 HR/82 RBI in � of a season. Bay strikes out a lot and cooled off in the second half, not to mention that Bay won�t have a lot of protection in his lineup. Bay came over to Steel-town along with Oliver Perez in the Brian Giles trade late in 2003, that swap seems to be working out very well for the Pirates.


  11. Chipper Jones (ATL) � Now eligible at third base as well, giving Chipper additional value. A nice low risk play who will get his 100 RBI, 100 runs, and 30 homers.


  12. Andruw Jones (ATL) � I�m beginning to get impatient with Druw, who can�t seem to get his average much above .260. Still you can�t complain too much about 35 HR and 100 RBI.


  13. J.D. Drew (LA) � Finally kept himself in one piece for most of 2004, eventually hitting 31 HR along with 93 RBI and even threw in 12 stolen bases and a +.300 average. However Drew now moves to an even worse hitters park and won�t enjoy the same type of lineup protection he had in Atlanta or St. Louis.


  14. Brian Giles (SD) � Petco Park is blamed in part for Giles statistical decline, and the home (.282/52/13/53) and road (.287/45/10/41) splits somewhat supported that. A bigger issue is that Giles is now 34, so his days of 30+ home runs are probably past.


  15. Jose Guillen (WSH) � Got a one-way ticket out of Disneyland after a late-season blowup with manager Mike Scioscia. Jose won�t have to worry about �me, me, me� getting in the way of a pennant race in DC, and trust me Frank Robinson won�t let him. 30 HR/100 RBI are reasonable expectations.


  16. Shawn Green (AZ) � Also eligible at first base, Green rebounded enough in �04 (28 HR/86 RBI) to give hope in a better hitting environment in Arizona.


  17. Brad Wilkerson (WSH) � Also eligible at first base, Wilkerson has produced but hasn�t driven in a lot of runs to go along with the 71 HR�s he has hit the first three years � likely to be undervalued.


  18. Lance Berkman (HOU) � Like Rocco Baldelli in the American League, Berkman tore his ACL during the off-season in a non-baseball event, but his injury is considered less severe than Rocco�s, and Lance even thinks he can return by Opening Day. If so, move Lance up into the top ten but even if the return is held off into May he shouldn�t go too deep into any draft.


  19. Milton Bradley (LA) � Everyone knows the massive risk here. MB has the potential to contribute in all five categories, but also the potential to get a lengthy suspension at the drop of a dime. In light of Ron Artest over the winter, MLB is likely to come down heavy on his next outburst, which will be sooner rather than later. Usually, I tend to stay away from these type of players.


  20. Preston Wilson (COL) � Just playing in Colorado has to give this guy some value. Just two years ago Wilson drove in 141 runs, 84 of those in home � an average of over one per game. Unfortunately Wilson�s speed game is gone and was recently fitted for a knee brace. Preston also figures to be traded during the season as the Rockies are in a full blown youth movement.


  21. Moises Alou (SF) � Had a fantastic year going .293/39/106 with the Cubs and now joins his dad with the Giants. Turns 39 during the season plus going to a lousy hitters park (except for that Bonds guy), which will probably spell a steep decline.


  22. Luis Gonzalez (AZ) � It seemed like just yesterday that Luis won Game 7 of the World Series, but before the team brought back Craig Counsell during the off-season Luis was THE ONLY PLAYER LEFT FROM THAT TEAM. Is 37 and also coming off elbow surgery, but still hit 17 home runs with the bum arm before shutting down in August.


  23. Austin Kearns (CIN) � Has had so many injuries his first few years that people had forgotten about him. Don�t make that mistake, Kearns had 30 HR potential and may be one of the bigger sleeper picks of the year.


  24. Pat Burrell (PHI) � Elected not to have his bad wrist operated on, which like Troy Glaus last year could come back to haunt him. Is prone to slumps but can also go on extensive power tears, especially in the Phillies home park. He�s a boom-or-bust pick.


  25. Wily Mo Pena (CIN) � Not officially a starter, but trust me � he�ll find his way into the Reds lineup. Delivered in bunches last year, with 26 HR/66 RBI in just 336 AB�s. Although his power is just a notch below Adam Dunn, WMP is also susceptible to slumps like AD. That said, I�m huge on Wily Mo this year.


  26. Geoff Jenkins (MIL) � Managed to stay healthy for about the first time ever last year, but actually had better numbers the year before despite missing a month. That said, Jenkins is still not a bad mid-tier outfielder.


  27. Cliff Floyd (NYM) � Despite the numerous injuries suffered in his career, Floyd still steals some. If he could make it through a whole season, Floyd is still a threat to flirt with 30 home runs.


  28. Matt Holliday (COL) - Now projected to be an everyday player with the Rockies, Holliday (as expected) did much better at home (.338/10/36) than on the road (.240/4/21) � 25-30 HR�s is a strong possibility.


  29. Dave Roberts (SD) � Stole 33 bases in just in just 68 games with the Dodgers this year, in case you need to remember the kind of base stealing ability Roberts brings � unfortunately Roberts is only a career .259 hitter. But the Padres will have a definite plan for Roberts, if healthy all year (which he never manages to do) he could lead the Majors in steals.


  30. Matt Lawton (PIT) � Dealt to the Pirates after a 20 HR/20 SB year in Cleveland, Lawton is going to find it very difficult to duplicate those numbers in the NL Central. First base eligibility is also possible during the season.


  31. Larry Walker (STL) � Will no longer see the cartoonish numbers he put up for years in Denver, but don�t dismiss LW totally. Hit 11 HR with 27 RBI, and even had four stolen bases in 44 games with the Redbirds. He�s high-maintenance and will be rested often, but not a bad late pick.


  32. Reggie Sanders (STL) � Never seems to play through a full season, but always manages to get his 20 home runs/20 steals. Would work for you as a nice fill-in substitute.


  33. Jason Lane (HOU) � With Beltran out of the picture, Lane one and for all will get an opportunity to see if he can do the job on an everyday basis. Has 12 HR/32 RBI in 232 career AB�s, so he does have the power. A fantastic sleeper pick. Ryan Klesko (SD) � A 25-30 home run man just a few years ago, Klesko hit only nine out in 402 AB�s last year. Before blaming his home park, remember that his six road homers would only translate to about 20 over a full season. Worth a flier in hopes that he returns to the 20 HR/80 RBI plateau.


  34. Terrmel Sledge (WSH) � Should see regular playing time with the Nats and had nice numbers (.269/15/62) in 400 AB�s. But it�s worth noting that Sledge did test positive for steroids while in the minors a couple of years back.


  35. Mike Cameron (NYM) � Has always had power (30 HR in �04) but is a .248 career hitter and also not a happy camper in regards to Carlos Beltran coming on board. Cameron is destined to be dealt at some point during the season, which could actually be a good thing.


  36. Endy Chavez (WSH) � A one time International League batting champion, Endy stole 32 bases for the Expos last year, but is considered more of a utility player.


  37. Ryan Freel (CIN) � Is eligible in the outfield as well as third base, and his stolen base ability is worthwhile at either position.


  38. Craig Wilson (PIT) � Eligible at first as well, but hit only .220 after June 1 last year. Likely to be dealt somewhere around the trade deadline.


  39. Luis Terrero (AZ) � The NL rookie class in the outfield is far less impressive than in the AL, with Terrero probably the best of the bunch. Best remembered for going Ron Artest on a fan during a AAA game last year, which earned him a lengthy suspension. On the field, Terrero is a multi-tooled player capable of both homers and steals.


  40. Marquis Grissom (SF) � At age 38, Grissom is the youngest member of the Giants outfield, but has quietly put up back-to-back 20 HR seasons. Don�t doubt his ability to do it again, just look at him as a NL version of Steve Finley.


  41. Craig Biggio (HOU) � Now just a couple of good seasons away from 3,000 hits, Biggio hit a career high 24 home runs last year and has scored 100 runs in each of the last two seasons. Translated, he�s still reliable to use to round out your roster while helping you in a few categories.


  42. Jeromy Burnitz (CHC) � If you�re considering Burnitz based on his 37 HR/110 RBI last year, remember that he was .322/24/68 at Coors Field � on the road Burnitz was .244/13/42 � that�s what Cub fans have to look forward to, as NL Central fans sitting in the lower box seats need to worry about flying bats again.


  43. Ken Griffey Jr. (CIN) � Projected over 162 games, Griffey can still produce considering that he had 20 HR/60 RBI in 83 games last year. However the batting average is now down into the .250/.260 range and gets catastrophic injuries at the drop of a sneeze. Best case scenario has Griff playing five days a week while being handled with kid gloves, so the Reds can have the opportunity to make a deal with a contender around the trade deadline.


  44. Brad Hawpe (COL) � Slugged .652 with 31 HR/86 RBI in AAA last year. The Rockies brought in Dustan Mohr to compete for the right field job, but Hawpe has the better upside. Hawpe is a converted first baseman, so defense may be a question mark.


  45. Juan Encarnacion (FL) � How long have we been waiting for this guy?? Ency has now bounced from Detroit to Cincinnati to Florida to LA and now back to Florida. While good for some steals, Ency has only hit more than 20 homers once and has journeyman written all over him.


  46. Tike Redman (PIT) � Has had a nice batting average along with a few steals in his first two seasons, but may be dropped down to the bottom of the order. Not much of a high ceiling here.


  47. Jayson Werth (LA) � Hitting 16 home runs in a half-seasons� worth of work isn�t too bad, and is slated to start in left with the Dodgers. But a bad shoulder that will necessitate surgery sooner rather than later stunts his value.


  48. Brady Clark (MIL) � Makes the list only because he is starting and has stolen 13 and 15 bases in part time duty the last two years. Brady could be a poor man�s Scott Podsednik leading off. But be aware the Brewers would like a better option in left field.


  49. Kenny Lofton (PHI) � The Phillies will represent Lofton's seventh team, and that's just since the end of the 2001 season. Kenny is projected to lead off, but isn't that big a stolen base threat these days - he had only seven in 83 games with the Yankees last year.


  50. Freddy Guzman (SD) � As is the case in the American League, I close with a player who can get be a waiver wire gem and get you some very cheap steals. Guzman has swiped (count �em) 165 bases between the minors and majors over the last two years. Freddy will probably open the year in AAA, but if anything happens to Dave Roberts snatch him immediately, it could be your move of the year.


  51. Willy Taveras (HOU) � And one more rabbit for the road, Taveras could be the Astros Opening Day center fielder and see regular time until Lance Berkman gets off the DL. Taveras hit .335 with 55 stolen bases in AA ball last year.





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