KAC 2005 FANTASY BASEBALL - FIRST BASE RANKINGS


PUJOLS AS GOOD AS IT GETS



Whereas the number of quality hitting catchers is somewhat limited, that is not the case with corner infielders � especially at first base. In fact if you�re looking for massive power, first is where to look. You won�t find your base stealers there, but you can always look toward the outfield for that. After looking past the heavy lumber, you will also find a number of high-average hitters (Sean Casey, Lyle Overbay) as well as a promising crop of youngsters (Mark Teixeira, Justin Morneau). You can argue that you can wait a while to draft a quality 1B with the surplus, but I wouldn�t wait too long.

In addition to the first basemen, I will also list a handful of players who are only eligible at DH in most leagues, they will be noted as such�


  1. Albert Pujols (STL) � They always say it�s difficult following a legend. Well, Mark McGwire is now in hiding while Big Al�s value is as high as Big Mac ever was, even in his 70 homer season. Look at the four-year splits. Average: .329/.314/.359/.331, Homers: 37/34/43/36, Ribbies: 130/127/124/123, Runs: 112/118/137/133. What are you going to say bad, that the RBI�s are declining??? A great lineup surrounding him also helps, as evidenced by the 270 runs the last two years. Pujols has lost his outfield eligibility but that shouldn�t keep you from bringing him on. Pujols has as strong an argument as anyone on being the #1 overall draft pick this year.


  2. Todd Helton (COL) � One of the games best pure hitters, that much we know. The big question about 15 years from now is whether Helton is Hall of Fame worthy. I have a feeling sportswriters will be dialing up Helton�s road stats over the years. Last years road #�s (.326/45/11/36) support the argument that he becomes Sean Casey the day he�s traded out of Bedrock. However, the home totals (.368/70/21/60) remain so bloated that those playing challenge games remain compelled to keep a roster spot open for those weeks where the Rockies are at home. In your typical league, Helton remains a solid second/third round choice. OF IMPORTANT NOTE: Helton has reported to camp early and is said to be in the best shape his quarterback days at the University of Tennessee.


  3. Jim Thome (PHI) � Don�t look now, but Thome is two good years from reaching the 500 home run mark, and I say Thome�s got at least five years left in him. There should be no HOF argument regarding him (other than does he wear a Phils and Cleveland hat) when he�s done. Was slowed by nagging injuries last year and strikes out a ton, which has lowered his average into the .270 range since moving into the National League. Thome plays in a very favorable hitters park and has hit 190 bombs in just the last four years.


  4. David Ortiz (BOS) � Not the prettiest looking body around, but Papi rakes like few others in the game � driving home 139 RBI�s along with 41 HR in 2004 alone. About the only concern is that left-handers still give him fits. New Englanders did cartwheels that Ortiz was able to hit .250 along with 10 HR and 43 RBI in 196 AB�s v. southpaws.


  5. Mark Teixeira (TX) � Of the four players who follow Pujols, Teixeira has the most upside and could be listed as high as #2 at this time next year. In his third full season, Teixeira should complete his ascent into fantasy superstardom this year. Many feel it will be no surprise if Teixeira were to hit 50 home runs along with a .300 batting average. Although his surname is a natural for the Rangers, Teixeira is actually a native Georgian and his name has come up with trade talks with the Braves, his fantasy value would take a hit if he ever left Arlington. However I really don�t see a trade coming for at least the next two years.


  6. Richie Sexson (SEA) � If you felt burned by Sexson going on the shelf early last season, imagine how the Diamondbacks feel, who seemingly gave up half the team to acquire the big slugger, only to see him pop his shoulder out then declare for free agency. The good news is at least Arizona got Craig Counsell back � well OK, not that good of news. Sexson did make an impression (literally) in his one month in the desert, including smashing a monster home run off his own image on the center field scoreboard. I wouldn�t worry too much about Sexson returning from the injury (which was to his non-throwing shoulder), he had only missed five games the previous two years (at least the Brewers sold high for once). The bigger worry is heading into a negative hitters park in Seattle, but at least he will have that Ichiro guy to knock in. Sexson can also be a 0-30 waiting to happen but he usually ends up in the .270 range, look for a ton of RBI and upwards to 40 bombs.


  7. Paul Konerko (CWS) � Those who bought low on Konerko after an awful 2003 campaign were handsomely rewarded to the tune of a .277/41/117 season. However Konerko found himself a subject in trade talks over the winter, which would be a concern since he hit .317/29/70 on the South Side as opposed to .239/12/47 on the road � that is almost a Coors-like split.


  8. Derrek Lee (CHC) � During the Cubs epic final week collapse one of my favorite images was a psycho kid frantically waving his #25 Lee jersey, imploring him to somehow come through during an attempted ninth inning rally. After failing, the kid literally buried himself into the Lee jersey. Actually Lee�s biggest clutch hit in Wrigley came after Steve Bartman breathed life into the Marlins the year before. Actually, Lee has slowly matured into a 30 HR/100 RBI man who also throws in a few SB�s. Batting average has slowly climbed through the .270�s in recent years. One bit of concern is that Dusty Baker is planning for Lee to hit second this year, which would hurt the RBI total.


  9. Carlos Delgado (FL) � Fresh out of Canadian teams to play for (where he doesn�t have to worry about God Bless America being played), Delgado went on a lengthy free agent tour before settling on the Marlins. Delgado made the most headlines last year with his anti-war stance as he�s not nuts about the U.S. Military�s decades-long missile testing in Puerto Rico. Hopefully Carlos will really open up this year and tell us what he thinks about Skull and Bones, Bohemian Grove, the Illuminati, and what really happened on 9/11. There have been various seasons in Delgado�s career where he has gone absolutely insane, including 145 RBI just two seasons ago. After being dogged by injuries in the first half last year, Delgado rebounded going .305/22/63 in 73 games after the All-Star break last year. Moving to SkyDome to Dolphins Stadium is going to a bummer however.


  10. Justin Morneau (MN) � Like Joe Mauer, Morneau came up as a catcher but has already made the switch over to first, thanks in part to a ton of injuries suffered since turning pro in 1999. Smacked 41 home runs between AAA and the Twins last year. 10 homers and 26 RBI in August alone tells you his ability. Bat speed is good, the book to get him out is to throw the off-speed stuff. People said a year ago that he could be hitting cleanup in Minnesota�s lineup in �05, well guess where he�s going to be � will be very popular in the challenge games.


  11. Shawn Green (AZ) � They had to literally tear that Dodger jersey off of Shawn, but actually he is headed to �greener� pastures. Fantasy owners will be much happier to see Green elsewhere, he will be hitting in a better lineup and play in a better park. The power stroke is slowly coming back, and Shawn hit 18 HR after the break last year. You also get OF eligibility out of Shawn.


  12. Mike Sweeney (KC) � Wanted to be a cornerstone of the Royals� rebuilding project a few years back � but now has come to his senses and wants out of Kaufman Stadium as soon as possible. He will be a popular name come July 31. Was dogged by injuries, but still went .287/22/79 in 2/3 of a season. Crap lineup hurts him now, would improve if he went to say � the Angels.


  13. Sean Casey (CIN) � Only delivered 42 RBI in 425 at-bats in 2002, but 2004 was by far his best season ever, adding power (24 HR) to go along with 100 runs and RBI and hitting a cool .324. The really beauty is that Casey rarely strikes out and plays his home games in a favorable park.


  14. Phil Nevin (SD) � Was clearly not happy by his new digs in San Diego, and the stats showed it - .310/14/65 on the road as opposed to .265/12/40 at home. Dogged by injuries in recent years, look for Nevin to sit on March 7, he has suffered shoulder injuries in games on that date in each of the last two years. Only available at first base these days.


  15. Travis Hafner (CLE) � As much as Cleveland fans didn�t want to see Jim Thome go, Hafner�s 2004 performance showed that it was definitely the right move. Hafner hit .311 with 28 HR/109 RBI in just 140 games, including 18 bombs in his final 207 AB�s. Hafner had to have bone chips removed from his elbow following the season but should be fine this year. The only negative is that Hafner is eligible at DH only in most leagues.


  16. Aubrey Huff (TB) � Coming off a pair of seasons in the .300/90/30/100 range, Huff also has eligibility at third base.


  17. Erubiel Durazo (OAK) � Blessed with a tremendous eye at the plate, it finally came all together for Durazo last year, hitting .311 with 22 HR/88 RBI. Durazo almost never sees the field so don�t look for any more than DH eligibility.


  18. Jeff Bagwell (HOU) � The beauty of the position is that you can go deep into the mid-tier guys and still get a future Hall-of-Famer. Is he what he was for much of the �90�s when he annually flirted with 130 RBI. No, and his average has fallen from the .300 level. Still, you can look for 100 runs, 30 bombs and 100 RBI.


  19. Kevin Millar (BOS) � The Red Sox sent Doug Mientkiewicz and his ball to the Mets, assuring Millar full-time work in 2005. After hitting 13 HR and 49 RBI after the All-Star break there shouldn�t be much to worry about � playing in a loaded lineup, Millar is not an excellent late-round option. Also eligible in the outfield.


  20. Brad Wilkerson (WSH) � Broke out with 32 home runs last year, but only 67 RBI says all you need to know about the lineup around him. Batting average is also an issue. The Nats brought in some acquisitions over the winter, so hopefully Wilk will have more to drive in � also outfield eligible.


  21. Dmitri Young (DET) � Seems like he�s been around forever � maybe it�s because of that supposedly Upper Deck rookie card from �92 or �93 that was supposed to end up paying for your kid�s college education. He�s never quite lived to those expectations, but when you project his four months worth of work (after breaking his leg on Skydome�s turf) you have a 30 HR/90 RBI man in a decent lineup. Mainly a DH but first base eligible.


  22. Lyle Overbay (MIL) � Has long been projected to be a �poor man�s Mark Grace�, but exceeded that M-O for the first half of the �04 season when he was hitting .350 while appearing to make a run at the all-time single season doubles record. However pitchers figured out O-Bay by the second half, where he hit .245. Still, 16 home runs was more than many expected.


  23. Frank Thomas (CWS) � You have to give someone credit for staying in the same market for 15+ years these day. Had a 40 homer season as recently as two years ago but the Big Hurt is nothing but hurt these days, with a bum ankle wiping out half of last season. Strictly a DH these days, consider yourself lucky if you get 120 games out of him.


  24. Carlos Pena (DET) � Had a few monster games late last year, and looks to be maturing into a 30 HR/90 RBI man. The big question is whether Pena will ever see the sunny side of .250. Still only 26 years old so more improvement is possible.


  25. Shea Hillenbrand (TOR) � Shea moves from the Arizona desert to the Great White North � what won�t change is that Shea will hit for good average and drive in runs � but not be counted for much more than 20 homers.


  26. Mike Piazza (NYM) � Although expected to return to full-time catching, Piazza is still eligible at first. More details in the catchers preview � where he is ranked sixth.


  27. Craig Wilson (PIT) � Was one of the hottest pick-ups the first two months of the season hitting .355 with 12 HR�s. But then Wilson burned everyone who tabbed him for the CDM Mid-Season challenge, hitting just .217 the rest of the way. Eligible in the outfield as well.


  28. Ben Broussard (CLE) � Used as basically a platoon player, Broussard drove in 82 RBI in just 417 AB�s. If Travis Hafner plays more first this year, Broussard could end up seeing more bench time � but I wouldn�t worry too much about that.


  29. Darin Erstad (ANH) � Used to be a nice five category player, but power has gone south in recent years. Can still be good for 15-20 steals but that doesn�t make up for the power deficiency.


  30. Rafael Palmeiro (BAL) � Proved last year that his days of 37/38 HR and well over 100 RBI�s is now clearly behind him. Batting average has been going south for the last several years and Raffy will most-likely be a platoon player this year. Expect his 3,000th career hit but anything more than 20 HR would be a bonus.


  31. Adam LaRoche (ATL) � One of these years Julio Franco will finally go away for good, when it finally does LaRoche may get an opportunity to be a 20 HR/80 RBI man. Or the Braves front office may just find someone else to platoon with LaRoche.


  32. Tino Martinez (NYY) � We�re nearly 30 players in now, but you can still get veteran professional hitters such as this. Doesn�t hit much above .260 these days, but did hit 23 HR for Tampa last year � and could improve on his 76 RBI back in the Bronx. Smart money says he sees more time than Jason Giambi last year.


  33. Pedro Feliz (SF) � Will fill in at first, third, short, and possibly the outfield this year. Although not projected as a starter he will get his AB�s. Has power, but lack of walks are the main issue going against him.


  34. Scott Hatteberg (OAK) � Now 35, Hatteberg isn�t usually good for more than 15 homers, but had one of his better seasons in 2004, driving in 82 runs. Rookie Dan Johnson has more power and could steal playing time from Hatteberg this year.


  35. Casey Kotchman (ANG) � Compared often to Todd Helton and Will Clark, Kotchman remains blocked by Darin Erstad for the time being. If he�s able to play every day Kotchman could find his way into the top 20, doesn�t display much power though.


  36. Nick Johnson (WSH) � Injuries have kept Nick from getting a full season in the bigs, and could hit for 20+ HR�s if ever given the chance. If looking for upside, not a bad direction to go late.


  37. Jason Giambi (NYY) � The story here has been well documented. I�m guessing Giambi will get tons of support at home and plenty of razzing on the road. Best case scenario is that Giambi finds help and finds his way part of the way back, the worst is that his career comes to a quiet end.


  38. Jeff Conine (FL) � Has had a nice, quiet, productive 13-year career, but is reduced to being a utility outfielder with Carlos Delgado on board. If he plays everyday expect his usual 15-20 homers and 80 RBI. Had a couple of surgeries in the off-season which could effect his availability.


  39. J.T. Snow (SF) � Hit .327 last year, including a sizzling .387 after the break. You would think that would get him ranked much higher, but the combination of being a strict platoon player, having below average power for the position, and turning age 37 (It seems like yesterday he broke in with the Angels) severely limits his fantasy value.


  40. Josh Phelps (TB) � After wearing out his welcome in Toronto and Cleveland in the last year, Phelps should find plenty of work down on the Suncoast. He crushes southpaws, going .309/12/32 in 156 AB�s last year.


  41. Doug Mientkiewicz (NYM) � Has never displayed a lot of power, but should get at least 400 AB�s with the Mets. Best case has Mientkiewicz hitting close to .300 with 70 RBI.


  42. Hee Seop Choi (LA) � Was horrible after coming over to LA at the trade deadline, and has never been able to hit lefties in limited opportunities in the bigs. However he should get a better chance this year, if only because there isn�t really any other options with the Dodgers.


  43. Travis Lee (TB) � Did not fit in with the Yankees and ended up missing most of the campaign following surgery to fix a torn labrum. Now Lee returns to Travis Lee replacing Tino Martinez. Travis went .275/75/19/70 as a Devil Ray in 2003 and is a safe late round pick, but not with much upside.


  44. Scott Spiezio (SEA) � A classic example on how Safeco Field can drain a players fantasy value. A decent #6 or #7 hitter in Anaheim with OK power, Spiezio went down the tubes last year, hitting just .215 with 41 RBI in 367 AB's. Spiezio gets you a decent goat and third base eligibility, but that's about it.


  45. Daryle Ward (PIT) � If Criag Wilson continues to stink it up, the Buccos would do just as well playing Ward. Batting average (.259 career) is an issue, but Daryle has always had power, 15 HR and 57 RBI in 79 games last year.


  46. Tony Clark (AZ) � Can hit a baseball about as far as anyone on the planet and would be good for 30 HR/100 RBI over the course of a full season. Problem is TC doesn't get that opportunity as he has barely hit over the Mendoza line over the past few seasons.


  47. Calvin Pickering (KC) � 6'5" 295 lbs, are we looking at first baseman or scouting defensive line prospects for the NFL Draft??? One time Oriole prospect has now bounced around a few organizations before hitting 35 HR's in just 299 AB's at Omaha before getting some time filling in for Mike Sweeney/Ken Harvey. Considering those two's injury history, it would be no shock if Pickering saw playing time again, or he could be dealt to another AL team needing a bat or he can simply go back to being a AAA home run legend. DH eligibility only in most leagues.


  48. Bucky Jacobson (SEA) � Bucky and Calvin Pickering were staging their own version to the McGwire/Sosa home run duel of 1998. Buck was at .312/26/86 in 292 AB's when the Mariners brought the minor-league journeyman up to the show, where he was a very respectable .275/9/28 in 160 AB's. Jacobson turns 30 later this year, so he's not considered a major prospect and will need some injuries in front of him to get playing time. Perhaps the Yankees will come calling needing some bench depth, and Jacobson can hit a bomb off the Red Sox the final weekend of the season so he can be known forever as Bucky 'Bleepin' Jacobson.


  49. Kendry Morales (ANG) � Scouts have been drooling over the hitting prowess of this Cuban defector, who was tearing up the Winter League. The downside is that he needs vast improvement defensively. Kendry is only 21, so he has time to work on it. There are a few people ahead of Morales in Anaheim, but this will be a good prospect to keep tabs on as he should be opening his U.S. career at the AAA level.


  50. Eric Crozier (TOR) � Originally a 41st round draft choice, Crozier slowly worked his way up the Cleveland chain and hit .297/53/20/55 in 300 AAA AB's last year. He should get an opportunity at some point as Eric Hinske and Shea Hillenbrand are not exactly imposing roadblocks.


  51. Julio Franco (ATL) � This just in, 'JULIO FRANCO IS STILL ALIVE!!!' This man outdates everything � including fantasy baseball itself. Not only has Franco outlasted everyone in baseball, but everyone in NASCAR and the PGA tour as well. Hell, Franco almost cable TV!!!! Got 320 AB�s last year and still hit .309 with 57 RBI. Even if he finally retires after this year I may have to include him in next year�s rankings. LONG LIVE JULIO!!!!!





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