KAC 2004 FANTASY BASEBALL - FIRST BASE RANKINGS
HELTON ORDINARY OUTSIDE OF COORS
First base (along with the outfield of course) is always the home of the heavy hitters. Not only are there the usual suspects, but also a few outfielders/DH�s who get in enough games in at first to qualify there as well. There is also some breakthrough potential on the bottom end of the table. There are also a few DH types sprinkled in on this list.
- Albert Pujols (STL) � With all due respect to Barry Bonds, Pujols was the NL�s Most Valuable Player when it comes to statistics last year. Pujols� eligibility at first as well as the outfield enhances his standing as the #2 player on the board overall. Has averaged 122 runs, 127 RBI and 38 HR�s in his first three seasons. Will talk more about Al in my NL Outfield rankings.
- Todd Helton (COL � 1890) � We all know how the rarefied are of Coors Field has turned the likes of Dante Bichette, Vinny Castilla, and Geoffrey Hammonds into fantasy superstars at various points in their careers � which leads us to Helton. At home over the past two years, Helton has hit .385, with 154 runs, 41 homers and 137 RBI. On the road since 2002, Helton is .302/88/22/89. In other words, Helton is superman at home, Tino Martinez without the bench-clearing histrionics on the road. Remember that if Helton ever gets traded and at Hall of Fame ballot time around 2020. As it stands now however, Helton is a top-ten overall fantasy player � and a must in CDM no matter what the price on weeks where the Rockies are at home.
- Carlos Delgado (TOR � 1480) � Delgado returned to the sick zone in 2003, driving in 145 (count them) runs, along with a .302 average and 42 ding dongs. What happens if Delgado ever spent a year in Colorado??? 60 home runs??? 200 RBI??? A .350 average???
- Richie Sexson (AZ � 1450) � Managing to play in all 162 games for the cursed Brewers in itself should qualify Sexson for Cal Ripken iroman status. Milwaukee then decided to sell high, sending Sexson to the D-Backs (before his contract came up) for several spare players and some athletic tape. He may have his own area code for a strike zone, but Sexson is coming off more than respectable BA�s of .271, .279, and .272. And after hitting 45 bombs last year, one can only imagine what Sexson can now do playing for an actual Major League team.
- Jim Thome (PHI � 1440) � Even after his expected slow start in Philadelphia, Thome quickly rebounded and finished with 47 HR and 131 RBI. 148 bombs and 373 RBI over the past three years is not bad on any resume. Batting average did drop from .304 to .266 but should rebound.
- Jason Giambi (NYY � 1420) � Here�s a stone cold lock � Giambi will steal two bases this year, just as he did in 2003, 2002, 2001, and 2000. Fortunately for Jason, he can rake with 41 HR and 107 RBI last year. However, Giambi looked incredibly fooled at times last year, falling from a .342 BA and just 83 strikeouts in 2001 to .250 and 140 K�s. Supposedly Giambi should bounce back after off-season knee surgery but the boss may be all over him after he starts the year 3-24.
Mark Teixeira (TX � 760) � You really want him at home, where he hit .298 with 19 HR and 66 RBI as opposed to only hitting .217 on the road. 11 HR and 35 RBI after August 1 last year gives every indication that this future stud is headed in the right direction. With Rafael Palmeiro moved on, expect the 24-year old to truly blossom this year.
- Derrek Lee (CHC � 1400) � After making sure Steve Bartman�s name would go down in infamy in last years LCS series, Derrek will now actually try to help the Cubs finally get to the World Series. Lee shoots up the charts this year based on hitting .297 with 48 runs, 20 HR and 49 RBI away from Miami last year. That�s not to project .300/100/40/100 but you get an idea of the potential. Do not expect anything close to the 21 stolen bases he had last year, more than half of those came before manager Jack McKeon came on board in mid-May � and Dusty Baker is not a fan of giving his players the green light neither.
- Jeff Bagwell (HOU � 1620) � With over 1,400 career runs and RBI along with 419 HR�s, expect Bags to reach some serious milestones in the next couple of years. Traditionally comes on strong in the second half, hitting 25 of his 39 bombs after July 1 last year. Is good for a few more homers and runs at home (.276/62/22/50) than on the road (.279/47/17/50).
- Aubrey Huff (TB) � Will qualify at first in most leagues this year with 22 appearances in 2003. Played all 162 games last year finishing .311/91/34/107. More info in the outfield rankings.
Phil Nevin (SD � 950) � Despite being out until late July with a bum shoulder, Nevin flashed his old power in the final two months, hitting 13 HR with 46 RBI in just 59 games as opposed to 12 HR, 57 RBI in 107 games the year before. There is a dark secret out there though, the Padres new stadium may not be kind to lefties. If healthy, Phil could approach his career 2001 #�s (.306/97/41/126). UPDATE: A shoulder injury (unrelated to last year's at this time) will shelve Nevin for 3-4 weeks, making him questionable for Opening Day.
- Rafael Palmeiro (BAL � 1340) � No longer needed by the Rangers due to the arrival of Mark Teixeira, Palmeiro refused a late-season trade to the Cubs so he could continue to post impressive numbers at home (.281/56/21/59). Rafael then hand-picked his second favorite left-handers bandbox by signing on to a second tour of duty in Baltimore. Not the .300 hitter he once was, but it would be no surprise if he gets over 100 RBI and approaches 40 HR for a tenth straight season.
- Mike Sweeney (KC � 1380) � There are some red flags this year, including a bad back along with the fences being moved back 10 feet in his home park. Even when healthy, Sweeney seems to be falling into the 25-30 HR plateau. Still Sweeney is one of the best average players (.307 lifetime BA) available at the position.
- Frank Thomas (CWS � 810) � You have to like his CDM price after hitting 42 HR and 105 RBI last year. Still a .310 career hitter, but just .258 since 2001.
- Kevin Millar (BOS � 1060) � Although he had hit over .300 the previous two seasons, Millar was one of the few Red Sox not to hit .300 in 2003 � but made up for it by hitting career highs in HR�s (25) and RBI (96). Not bad for someone who was actually signed with a Japanese League team before backing out during Spring Training.
- Ryan Klesko (SD) � Did I already mention that the Padres new park may not favor lefties??? Not good considering Klesko only hit .194 v. left handers last year. And Klesko wasn�t exactly a bargain against righties hitting .272. The previous year Klesko�s left/right splits were .287/.305. Is slated to move back into the outfield this year, if healthy he should again be a threat for 30 HR, 100 RBI. Stole 23 bases as recently as 2001 but is no longer a threat on the basepaths.
- Nick Johnson (MTL � 570) � Comes over to the Expos as part of the Javier Vazquez deal, a huge break for Nick considering Yankee prospects rarely see the light of day. Hit just as well from the left side (.282) than the right (.285) while hitting 14 HR and 47 RBI in 324 AB�s last year. You have to like his prospects playing every day, especially with the 22 home games in Peurto Rico in the season�s first half.
- David Ortiz (BOS � 800) � Had a career year hitting .299 with 31 HR/101 RBI. However he was platooned much of the time (.216 v. lefties), has no wheels to speak of and sees much of his time at DH. Ortiz will be hard pressed to duplicate those numbers this year.
- Shea Hillenbrand (AZ) - Rediscovered his power stroke upon arriving in Arizona, hitting 17 HR and 59 RBI in just 85 games. The arrival of Richie Sexson will move Shea back to third base this year.
- Paul Konerko (CWS � 960) � What the hell happened??? Konerko was a participant at the All-Star home run contest in 2002 after hitting .328 with 20 HR and 71 RBI up to that point. However Konerko would only hit seven more bombs the rest of the way. By the time the All-Star game rolled around in �03, Paul was sitting at .197 with five homers and 22 RBI. Konerko did hit .275 with 13 HR/43 RBI in 61 games after that, so there is hope for a major rebound this year.
- Josh Phelps (TOR - 590) � Strikes out a lot, but hits the ball a country mile, with 20 HR�s last year in 119 games. Hit nine HR�s with 31 RBI in August and September following a DL stint, which may be an indication of things to come.
- Travis Hafner (CLE � 500) � 14 HR and 40 RBI in just 291 AB�s gives you an idea why Cleveland let Jim Thome walk a year ago. Strikes out a lot but the average should improve.
- Jeff Conine (FL � 1200) � He may be 37 and the Marlins may have acquired Hee Seop Choi, but you can�t complain too much about someone who hit .282 with 20 HR and 95 RBI. Smart money has the Marlins finding a way to keep Conine in the lineup on a daily basis.
- Erubiel Durazo (OAK � 620) � 2003 was supposed to be Durazo�s breakout year finally playing every day, so the final #�s of .259/92/21/77 were somewhat disappointing. May never hit for a great average but has a great eye, as 100 walks last year will attest.
- Travis Lee (FA � 1040) - Has been labeled a dissapointment based on the expectations Arizona had for him as their starting first basemen literally right out of college. Has kind of settled into the .270/20/70 range and is still only 28, but has now bounced around three organizations. Prospects for this year depend on where Lee lands and the amount of playing time he receives.
- John Olerud (SEA - 1130) � The decline may have begun, with Olerud dropping from the .300/20/100 area to .269/10/83 in �03. Even without the homers, Olerud should rebound in average and continue to deliver RBI�s.
- Sean Casey (CIN - 1050) � If he looks like Mark Grace, acts like Mark Grace, hits like Mark Grace, and plays the same position as Mark Grace� Well, you get the picture. Casey was a 20-25 HR man a few year back, but now has settled into being a .290-.300 hitter who should get you 80+ RBI. The good news is he�s a fixture in the middle of Cincinnati�s batting order.
- Doug Mientkiewicz (MN - 970) � Another high average hitter who will deliver some RBI�s along with 10-15 HR�s who would serve well as a fantasy back-up.
- Edgar Martinez (SEA - 970) � Even at 41, he is still a threat as a full-time DH, hitting 24 bombs with 98 RBI last year. .294 average not far off his career BA of .315. Injuries and the spector of sitting during inter-league play will always exist, but still a reliable option.
- Tino Martinez (TB - 1000) � Power numbers have fallen considerably, from 34 HR/113 RBI as recently as 2001 to 15 HR/69 RBI last year. Hit a disappointing .210 with runners in scoring position. A rebound is possible returning to his hometown in a favorable lineup surrounded by promising hitters. Robert Fick will be filling in for Tino on occasion at DH, so the D-Rays should lead the world in bench-clearing brawls.
- Ben Broussard (CLE - 550) � Should man the DH/1B duties along with Travis Hafner, and should continue to develop with Hafner after hitting 16 HR�s in 116 games last year. Doesn�t hit for average (.249 last year) yet, but doesn�t strike out much.
- Brad Fullmer (TX - 700) � A career .284 hitter, Fullmer flirted with 20 HR�s the previous two seasons before rupturing a knee tendon midway through last year. Signed a one-year deal with Texas and could be the Rangers full-time DH. Is still only 29, so a career year is very possible in Arlington if healthy.
- Scott Spezio (SEA - 720) - A capable fill-in player for your roster, especially since he is eligible at third as well as first. Has never cracked the 20 barrier in home runs, but has driven in 80+ runs the past two years.
- Carlos Pena (DET - 610) � A one time highly touted prospect who has already bounced around three organizations in as many years. Has not hit for average yet but don�t be surprised to see 25 HR�s if he plays every day. The Tigers are beginning to bolster the lineup around him so there is upside.
- Hee Seop Choi (FL - 400) � Last seen nearly getting killed by Kerry Wood (literally) on a pop-up collision last year, Choi hit 8 HR with the Cubs, but has still yet to hit much above the Mendoza line. Choi gets another opportunity in Florida this year but Jeff Conine could move down to first if he struggles again.
- Lyle Overbay (MIL - 400) � The �poor man�s Mark Grace� should get plenty of AB�s in the middle of Milwaukee�s order, which is the good news. Expect a decent average, we�ll see if he starts to develop any power.
- Randall Simon (FA - 710) � His numbers are actually pretty strong, hitting 16 HR and 72 RBI in 410 AB�s last year. Hit over .300 in both 2001 and �02. Usually a platoon player so don�t look for every day duty.
- Ken Harvey (KC - 500) � Big man (6�2� 240) displayed occasional power in his rookie campaign but will lose AB�s to a healthy Mike Sweeney and will be platooned at DH with the left-handed bat of veteran Matt Stairs.
- Casey Blake (CLE) � Late bloomer (30 years old) sees most of his time at third, but belted 17 HR with 67 RBI in his first full MLB season.
- Robert Fick (TB -740) - Fick usually hits .270, and last year drove in 80 runs in just over 400 AB's. He won't get nearly as many opportunites fighting for scraps this year behind Tino Martinez and Aubrey Huff. Best bet for playing time could be spelling Jose Cruz Jr. in right. When all else fails, Fick is good at physically trying to dislodge the ball from the first-basemen's glove when being thrown out on an easy grounder.
