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2003 FANTASY BASEBALL - FIRST BASE RANKINGS


New surroundings will equal slow start for Thome...



Theoretically speaking, first base is a good position to go for power. In fact it isn't even a bad idea to snatch up two or even three (depending on roster size) first baseman, where teams can get a good start on their power categories, then leave one or two outfielders who specialize in run/stolen base production. As usual, there is enough hitting talent at the position to satisfy the needs of most. The rundown begins with a three-wide battle at the top...

  1. Jason Giambi (NYY) � Giambi/Helton/Thome is a tough call, but my philosophy is when in doubt, take the Yankee. BA did slip to .314 from .342 in �01 and .334 in 2000 � but that�s nit-picking considering Giambi has provided an average of 40 HR, 125 RBI and 113 runs since 1999. Biggest concern would be the final two weeks of the season, where Giambi is likely to get some rest after the Bombers wrap up everything in the AL East.


  2. Todd Helton (COL) � Another player with a reliable track record, averaging 39 HR, 129 RBI, and 123 runs since 1999, along with a career .333 BA and .613 slugging percentage. One possible downside this year will be dealing with a revamped Rockie lineup that is going to strike out a lot.


  3. Albert Pujols (STL) - 21 games at first last year makes him eligible, along with at third and in the outfield. If versatility matter you may even want to consider him at or above Helton and Giambi. .321/230/71/257 rank among the biggest first two years in MLB history.


  4. Jim Thome (PHI) � Then there�s Thome�s track record since 1999, an average of 43 HR and 114 RBI, and has also scored over 100 runs the last four years. A .287 career BA puts him slightly behind Giambi and Helton. Thome may come out of the box slow in April and May adjusting to his new National League surroundings, but will come on strong in August and September when the Phils will be battling for their playoff lives. Also don�t discount a solid lineup around him featuring Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell, among others.


  5. Rafael Palmeiro (TX) � How long can he possibly keep it up??? Excluding the strike season of 1994, Rafi has hit at least 37 HR and 104 RBI in every year since 1993. Had 142 RBI in 1996 followed by 148 RBI in �99. Is moving up into the high rent district in a number of statistical categories including 490 career HR and 1575 RBI. Then there�s the durability, which has seen Palmeiro miss all of 57 games since 1988!!!!! Now for the bad news, Pudge Rodriguez is gone and Rafi turns 39 late in the season. And the BA has slipped a little hitting .273 the past two seasons. Still, don�t count him out, expect at least 30 HR and 100 RBI.


  6. Jeff Bagwell (HOU) � A dropoff that�s beginning to get a bit scary for my tastes. From .304/143/42/126 in �99 (at the Astrodome) and .310/152/47/132 in 2000 � to .288/126/39/130 in �01 and .291/94/31/98 in 158 games last year. On the plus side Bags has only missed eight games in the past four seasons. The added protection of Jeff Kent in the lineup offers hope to a return of 120 runs and RBI along with a possible .300 BA.


  7. Carlos Delgado (TOR) � Was as good as anyone at the position in 1999-2000 with 85 HR�s and 271 RBI. Also had a .344 BA and .664 slugging percentage in �00. But even the numbers of 72 HR and 210 RBI the last two seasons are not shabby, which gives him 100+ RBI for the past four seasons and 100+ runs for the past five. Jays have a promising line-up around him so a return to 40 HR/120 RBI is very much possible.


  8. Mike Sweeney (KC) - .300 hitter the past four seasons including a .340 clip last year along with a career high .563 slugging percentage. RBI�s has dropped off from 144 in 2000 to 99 and 86 the past two seasons. But much of that can be attributed to injuries and beating up Jeff Weaver. Look for .310/100/30/100 if everything breaks right.


  9. Paul Konerko (CWS) � The middle-tier first sackers start about now, I put Konerko at the top of the list due to a .300 BA along with an average of 27 HR and 100 RBI over the past three years. Slugging percentage comes in the .500 range.


  10. Ryan Klesko (SD) � Good for a .280-.300 BA along with 30 HR, 90+ runs, and 90+ RBI. Apparently, Klesko has ditched the speed game as he dropped from 23 SB�s in 2000 and �01 to just six last year.


  11. Richie Sexson (MIL) � Was expecting more than 29 HR and 102 RBI in 157 games after 45/125 in 2001. In Richie�s defense he gamely played through injury problems in the second half. However it�s very possible .279 is as good as it gets for BA with mega-holes in his massive swing plus absolutely zero lineup protection around him. If you absolutely have to have a Brewer on your squad, Richie is your best bet.


  12. Erubiel Durazo (OAK) � Now we start to get speculative. Durazo went had 46 runs, 16 HR, and 48 RBI in just 222 AB�s last year. Durazo will now primarily be a DH in Oakland, so the potential exists for 100/30/100. However, Durazo has been unable to crack the .270 mark in BA the past three years, and a slump in Oakand could find him right back in a platoon situation.


  13. Derrick Lee (FL) � Derrick lapped the field in the stolen base category last year, he had 19 in after only 11 the previous four seasons � so don�t expect a repeat there. However, Lee has decent power with 76 HR the past three seasons. RBI/runs will fall in the 80-90 range while looking at a BA in the .270-.280 range.


  14. Phil Nevin (SD) � Third basemen by trade, Nevin played 36 games at first last year � so he�s eligible there. Will also be moving into the outfield for this coming season, so versatility will be a plus. Struggled in the power department with only 12 HR and 57 RBI in 407 AB�s in �02. That was coming off years of .303/31/107 in 2000 and .306/97/41/126 in �01. Slugging percentage dropped from .588 to .413 last season. Vetoed trade in the off-season that would had sent him to Cincinnati for Ken Griffey Jr.. Vetoed another trade a few years back that would had sent him to Milwaukee for Jeremy Burnitz. A good play in salary cap type games if he can even return to the 25-30 HR, 100 RBI range.


  15. Raul Ibanez (KC) � Eligible either at first base or the outfield. Blossomed last year at age 30 with a .294/24/103 season in just 137 games/497 at-bats. Even with Mike Sweeney healthy, Ibanez is penciled in as the Royals left fielder hitting in the cleanup position.


  16. Aubrey Huff (TB) - It looked so promising for Huff finally getting a full-time gig, when Steve Cox has been sold to Japan, which would had allowed Huff to move over to first. But then the D-Rays turned around and signed two-time bust Travis Lee to man first. Greg Vaughn is still listed as the starting DH, but my guess is new manager Lou Pinella will tire of his washed up bat in about a week. Impressive #'s .313/67/23/59 in just 454 AB's last year, improving from .248/42/8/45 in 411 AB's in '01. Now in his third year, and at that magical age of 26, Huff is still a very good secret coming into '03.


  17. Fred McGriff (LA) - Another who has defied age (39 this year) recently, coming off a fine .273/30/103 season in 2002. Also hit .306/31/102 between Chicago and Tampa Bay in 2001. Moving to the one of the majors worst hitting parks a major negative though.


  18. Mark Bellhorn (CHC) - You probably would rather want him at second, as he qualifies there as well in addition to at first base. .258/86/27/56 along with a .512 slugging percentage in 445 AB's, his first full year in the bigs. Ability to drive in runs along with a consistant BA remain concerns.


  19. Mo Vaughn (NYM) - Dropped off from .272/36/117 in his last Anaheim year (2000) to .259/26/72 with the Mets last year. Don't expect much improvement as Mo's definitely on the back side of his career.


  20. Josh Phelps (TOR) - Only eligible at DH, he is listed as a first basemen in CDM so he will be listed there here as well. Value would to take a huge jump if he were ever to return to catching duties, which the Blue Jay organization is against. Had a solid half-season in the bigs with a .309 BA, along with 15 HR and 58 RBI. Many feel Phelps has 30+ home run potential written all over.


  21. Adam Dunn (CIN) - Sean Casey missed enough time for Dunn to become eligible at first, as well as the outfield. Big-time left-handed power, but hit under .200 the second-half of '02.


  22. Frank Thomas (CWS) � BA failed to come around in his comeback season, only hitting .252 last season. Did have 28 HR and 92 RBI, a far cry from .328/43/143 as recently as 2000. Will see virtually all his time at DH, so he may sit if the SOX find better options on particular days. Thomas is also destined for the bench during interleague play in NL parks, which will also cost him nine games. His days as a star appear over.


  23. John Olerud (SEA) � Safe later-round pick who will always get you 90 runs, 20 homers, 100 ribbies, and a nice .300 average.


  24. Tino Martinez (STL) - Huge dropoff from .280/34/113 in his final Yankee year to .262/21/75 with the Cards in '02. At this point a player far more valuable in real life than in the fantasy game.


  25. Jeremy Giambi (BOS) - Is there room for two Giambi's in the AL east. We may soon find out. Hit 20 HR and 45 RBI in 313 AB's between Oakland and Philadelphia last year. It appears all he needs is regular playing time.


  26. Edgar Martinez (SEA) � Now 40 years old, Edgar qualifies in most leagues only as a DH. In the CDM challenge he qualifies at first however. Went .306/23/116 in just 132 games last year and .277/15/59 in 97 contests last year. Slugging percentage has dropped from .579 in 2000 to .485 last year. 400 AB�s is a stretch at this juncture.


  27. Carlos Pena (DET) � Had somewhat decent #�s of 31/12/36/.253 in 273 Detroit AB�s after 12/7/16/.218 in 40 games with Oakland. Still only 25, so a big breakout year is possible.


  28. Brad Wilkerson (MTL) - Outfielder played 23 games at first so he qualifies. Came on late to finish .266/92/20/59.


  29. Jay Gibbons (BAL) - Another outfielder by trade who played enough games at first (30) to qualify there as well. 43 HR and 105 RBI in just 715 career AB's, but with only a .243 average. Doesn't strike out that much (105) so there is hope for BA improvement, although he is below average in the speed department.


  30. Sean Casey (CIN) - Average v. home run hitters are never popular at first base in the fantasy game, but at least till last year Casey offered 20 HR potential along with a .300+ BA. However, Casey fell completely off the map with 6 HR, 42 RBI and a .261 BA in 120 injury-plagued games. One ray of hope however. The Reds new ball yard has been tailored for left-handed hitters such as Casey and Ken Griffey Jr.


  31. Doug Mientkiewicz (MN) - Was a popular waiver wire pick-up in April and May, when Doug was flirting with a .400 BA. However Mientkiewicz struggled mightily after that, finishing at 10/64/.261 in 143 games after 15/75/.306 in 2001. Does have a nice line-up around him, but 20 HR would be the high lend of the scale.


  32. Scott Spezio - .285/80/12/82 in '02, a nice contributor as demonstrated during the Halo's title run. Could step it up in the power department, as he checks in at 6'2 225. Also had 17 HR and 49 RBI in just 297 AB's back in 2000.


  33. Travis Hafner (CLE) - Not much in 62 late-season AB's with Texas last year (.242/6/1/6), but has already been given the starting gig in the post Jim Thome era in Cleveland. The AAA numbers (.342/21/77) were impressive and has hit 20+ home runs his hast four minor league seasons. Not a highly regarded prospect as an amateur, as he was a 31st round pick.


  34. Lyle Overbay (AZ) - Erubio Durazo is gone, the D-Backs aren't bringing Travis Lee back, and Eric Karros isn't coming neither, so it appears this is another prospect who will actually play. Went .343/83/19/109 in AAA last year and has never hit worse than .322 in the minors. Expect decent but not great power numbers, but keep in mind Arizona is one of the better hitting parks around, especially for those who play for the home team and never have to face Unit or Schill.


  35. Eric Karros (CHC) - Some teams just cant trust a youngster. Hee Seop-Choi appeared primed to become the new first baseman for the Cubs, except Karros was acquired in exchange for Fred McGriff, and at least comes into Spring Training as the starter. Hit 31 HR and 106 RBI as recently as 2000, but only 28 HR since and also is coming off off-season shoulder surgery.


  36. Hee Seop Choi (CHC) - And then again, Choi was baseball's representative for emerging athletes to watch in 2003. Also checks in at a rock solid 6'5 235 lbs, and hit .287/26/97 in AAA before torching the Arizona Fall League to the tune of .345/8/17. May start year in Iowa but will be in Wrigley as the weather gets warm.



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