Aren�t you sick of that guy on the ESPN Magazine commercial trying to tell everyone that Ichiro is �# 1�??? OK, last year Ichiro was close to being god � since guys with 242 hits, a .350 BA and especially the 56 stolen bases don�t grow on trees this year. And for the first two months this year Ichiro showed absolutely no drop off, and on June 6 was sitting with a .383 BA with 18 stolen bases. But then something strange happened. Ichiro became Suzuki, and no longer the slam dunk selection to put in you challenge game lineup each week. Since June 6 Suzuki is 100-343 (.292) with 54 runs (still decent), 5 home runs, 21 RBI and 10 stolen bases. In his last 38 contests Suzuki is hitting a measly .237. The 21 RBI since 6/6 is Luis Castillo like, and represents a huge dip from the 69 he had last year. Most alarming though is the stolen base drop. Manager Lou Piniella admits �he�s struggling� and �he looks a little tired right now�. Whatever. My worry is that Suzuki has decided that like everyone else that the lost art of the stolen base is not needed with the long ball en vogue. Whatever the case, Ichiro�s run as a two-year fantasy challenge starter will end at the end of this season.
So who do you plug into that 2003 lineup??? As promised last week, I answer those questions in the 2nd Annual KAC SPORTS Challenge Baseball positional sneak preview, your first look on who will be the best buys for next season�
CATCHERS � This is a total crapshoot heading into next season. Mike Piazza (.272/62/28/87) remains the best power source but his BA continues to slip. A.J. Pierzynski offers a .300 average but not the power to go along with it. Toronto�s Josh Phelps (.305/35/13/51 in 63 games) has excellent power numbers but has been exclusively a DH this year. Look for CDM to qualify him at first next season, using Edgar Martinez as a precedent. St. Louis� Eli Marrero (.253/48/14/57/13) offers the best 5-category potential but BA and playing time remain issues. Charles Johnson (.213) was a must have only a little over a year ago but has fallen off the face of the earth, regressing to his early years of defensive backstop with little hitting to offer. Jorge Posada (.272/73/20/93) has numbers very similar to Posada but should come a little cheaper plus he has age and better lineup protection on his side. I like Ivan Rodriguez for next year, who has a good chance to be in a new locale. Yes, he�s been banged up but when playing still hits for power and average (.317/58/16/52 in 93 games) plus he will still only be 31. I would go with Irod, Posada, and whoever looks best in Spring Training.
FIRST BASEMEN � As just stated, Josh Phelps will probably be listed at first next year. That�s fine, if he can come relatively close to his current RBI a game clip he will be worthwhile bargain. Other than that the story is power with 14 first sackers now past the 20 HR mark, with Paul Konerko and Jason Giambi the best bets to pair up with Phelps.
SECOND BASEMEN � Brace for sticker shock with Alfonso Soriano, who will be Arod-like expensive come next year. Orlando Hudson (TOR) and Sean Burroughs (SD) will be the dirt cheap options, but neither offer power or speed at the moment. Mark Bellhorn will look good with his 26 HR, but should still be reasonably priced since he only has 53 RBI. Junior Spivey will be a nice 5-category contributor who should conservatively approach 20 HR/20 SB next year. Added bonus: You never have to worry about Spivey facing Unit or Schilling.
THIRD BASEMEN � This could be the position to go cheap if Hank Blalock (TX) and/or Joe Crede (CWS). Crede looks ready while I need to be convinced on Hank. If you want 5-category numbers the best bets are Eric Hinske (.284/86/21/75/13) and Aaron Boone (.239/76/24/79/28). Hinske�s second year status along with Boone�s early season hitting woes should make both reasonably priced. Adrian Beltre (.262/66/19/67/7) remains a possible breakthrough candidate. Don�t go overboard on Shea Hillenbrand next year, whose only been good for a .280 BA with 7 HR and 34 RBI since June 5.
SHORTSTOP � As has been the case in recent years, make sure you have Alex Rodriguez � no matter what the cost. Toronto�s Chris Woodward (.286/47/13/39 in 77 games) appears to be the best potential bargain. Jimmy Rollins would be another possibility with his steals if he can rebound in the BA department. Finally beware of sticker shock when it comes to Nomar and Miggy Tejada. Both salaries will now be in the Arod/Jeter range.
OUTFIELDERS � After Arod, Vladimir Guerrero becomes the best premium play due to his 40 homer/40 SB status. Other good values would Adam Dunn (.257/78/25/69/18), Pat Burrell (.287/91/36/109), Torii Hunter (.292/86/28/68/22), Randy Winn (.302/75/10/61/25), Vernon Wells (.280/74/20/88/9 after a slow start) and Austin Kearns (.315/60/13/56). If looking for cheap prospects consider Joe Borchard (CWS) and Marlon Byrd (PHI) - at least one of those two should click. And then there is Karim Garcia (CLE), who should get a starting call after a .324/11/42 in a current 35 game trial. If he looks good in the Spring games and can go two minutes without tweaking something, do not discount Griffey Jr. � since the Reds new yard will have a short right field porch built to be tailor made for Griffey.
STARTING PITCHERS � They are well vested in the pension plan, but do not expect a dropoff from either Curt Schilling or Randy Johnson � who remain head and shoulders above the pitching field. If healthy, Pedro Martinez is a must as well while Barry Zito is only a half-notch behind the big three. Roy Oswalt along with teammate Wade Miller (who has reeled off nine consecutive wins) are highly recommended as well. With only half a year under his belt, Mark Prior should come at a very reasonable price and comes with top-five potential for �03. Damian Moss and Kevin Millwood will also come highly recommended coming out of Brave rotation. If looking for a Roy Halladay/Brian Lawrence like cheap salary to throw in, consider the likes of Anaheim rookie John Lackey (8-3, 3.32/1.26) and San Diego's Oliver Perez.
RELIEF PITCHERS � In this area it is about dirt cheap players falling into closing gold mines (think Eric Gagne, Eddie Guardado, and Mike Williams from this year). Teams looking at new closers for �03 include CLE (Dany Baez), CWS, ATL (if Smoltz returns to the rotation), TX, FLA, MTL, CHC, and CIN. If you can find four/five cheapies out of that you will be doing well while saving salary for the other positions, and early indications are 2003 will be a bumper year for that.
For the second time in two weeks, a potentially huge closer development, as Cincinnati manager Bob Boone is experimenting with using Danny Graves as a starter for the balance of the season. That moved Scott Sullivan into the closers role, who responded with saves in back-to-back nights. Sullivan would be huge if he could carry that title into next season, but that is not a certainty. Danys Baez was lit up by the White Sox after converting his first two save opportunities that situation bears further monitoring. Sports Weekly came out with their final list of the top 30 farm systems - with the top five being Cleveland ('top talent close to the majors at virtually every position'), San Diego ('fun to think about next year's rotation'), Texas, Houston, and Minnesota. Surpringly Montreal checks in at 28th while Milwaukee comes in dead last (zero surprise there).
None of the big three pitchers are guaranteed booms for next week. Randy Johnson should be fine, he starts in San Diego where he usually dominates. However, he was lit up there back in late July. Curt Schilling is in Colorado. Should be fine but sure to give up a couple of home run balls. And then there�s Pedro Martinez. He did get the start and win on Wednesday, and is scheduled for two starts in the coming week at home v. Cleveland and at Baltimore. I stress the word scheduled, the Red Sox are on target to be mathematically eliminated by next weekend, making Pedro a sure bet to be shut down. Other two-start candidates include Roy Halladay (at Bal, at TB), Mark Buehrle (KC, MN), Cory Lidle (ANH, TX), Mark Mulder (ANH, TX), Freddy Garcia (TX, ANH), Kevin Millwood (at FL, FL), and Vicente Padilla (at ATL, at CIN). Best schedules belong to the rampaging A�s (7 at home) and Colorado (6 at home, one of those v. Schilling).
Besides Oakland, CLE, BOS, KC, DET, TOR, BAL, ANH, TX, SEA, ATL, FLA, CIN, PIT, SF, and LA play seven games, everyone else six. Besides Oakland and Colorado DET, BAL, TB, CWS, SEA, PIT, NYM, ATL, MIL, and SD spend the week at home while CLE, MN, TOR, NYY, ANH, TX, MTL CHC, PHL, HOU, STL, and AZ spend the week on the road. Besides Arizona, St. Louis will be visiting COL.NEXT WEEK: Manager your playoff rosters...