This is the time of year which sees baseball pushed into the background. Sure there are games with major playoff implications that will command contention. However do not discount the other supposedly 'meaningless' games. Although those contests will barely register on the sports recaps, it provides the perfect opportunity for those teams to check out the prospects in their system who were called up after September 1. It is an opportunity to gauge these players in actual games under major league conditions while getting a head start on next year's Spring Training.
September provides the same opportunity to fantasy owners. Even if your team is out of contention (and even if it is not), you still get a chance to scout not only the prospects, but some of the first and second players who are just now getting comfortable. At this time in 2002, I noticed a particular San Francisco Giant pitcher who had been shaky in the past, but impressed me with mid-to-upper 90's heat. This season Jason Schmidt leads the NL in ERA and is a Cy Young contender.
So with that I embark in my third annual prospectus on who might be the best speculative picks for the 2004 CDM Diamond Challenge. And for about the umpteenth straight year I wonder about a Ken Griffey Jr. comeback. Here is the positional analysis.
CATCHER - Who knows where he may be (perhaps back in LA???), but Mike Piazza should come at least a small discount in 2004. All signs point to free agent Javy Lopez leaving Atlanta for free agency, hopefully Johnny Estrada gets enough September AB's to warrent a 300 salary next year. Cleveland's Victor Martinez should be another cheap option who has displayed power in the minors but not yet at the big league level. Also keep an eye on the Miguel Olivo, who should be handling most of the White Sox catching duties next year. Jason Varitek has a career high 23 HR's on the campaign and could merit interest along with usual suspects such as Jorge Posada and Ivan Rodriguez.
FIRST BASE - Should be plenty of great cheap options here. Even if burned by Josh Phelps this year don't be perturbed as he was bothered by a bad back for much of the early portion of the season. Five home runs/12 RBI in seven recent games shows what he is capable of. Remember why you may have gone after him this year in the first place, when he was hitting home runs into adjacent schoolyards during Spring Training. Cleveland's Travis Hafner hit five HR and 14 RBI during the month of August, making him just one of several Tribe players who are possibilities. Mark Teixiera has not been a high average hitter (around .260) this year, but has 17 HR and 47 RBI since June 1. Expect .290/35/100 next year when he moves into the heart of the Texas order. Per usual Todd Helton should be squeezed in regardless of price and utilized in weeks the Rockies are at home.
SECOND BASE - Alfonso Soriano has slumped at times in '03, but is one of baseball's safest five-category locks and should again be on your roster, regardless of price. Ryan Freel has stolen eight bases along with three HR's in a late-season trial by the Reds and will be in competition with D'Angelo Jimenez next spring. Keep in mind though that he will be 28 by Opening Day, meaning he has not been on a fast track. Arizona's Matt Kata has displayed minor pop and could perhaps develop into next year's Marcus Giles. Giles and Texas' Michael Young will move into the mid-level salary area and should still be good values.
THIRD BASE - The White Sox Joe Crede is another who was a rookie dissapointment in the first half but has really come on. A .352/7/18 August gives an indication of why he was a highly touted prospect in the first place. Cleveland's Casey Blake also is flashing power potential, hitting .277 with six home runs and 21 RBI in August. Toronto's Eric Hinske's stats took a hit this year as he tried to play through a hand injury, he is worth another look. Brandon Larson was a tremendous dissapointment this year but remains a centerpiece of the Reds youth movement. Morgan Ensberg who had a 4-4, 4 RBI day over the weekend, provides power (21 HR) in a very favorable hitters park in Houston. Also don't forget about Phil Nevin, who is back from injury and is the NL's player of the week after hitting three HR's and driving in 10 runs, he should be a value as his team moves into what should be a new hitters yard. This should be a great position to go cheap on.
SHORTSTOP - Alex Rodriguez was slowed by a herniated disk early on, but is now a front-runner for AL MVP honors with 15 HR's in August. Stats like those at an offensively challenged position makes A-Rod a must every year no matter what the price. The likes of Nomar Garciaparra, Edgar Renteria, and Rafael Furcal also will be pretty expensive nex time around. Royal's ROY candidate Angel Berroa should still be reasonably priced while many feel Mets rookie Jose Reyes will be the next big thing - at the very least he will provide steals/runs and is also hitting .307 this year.
OUTFIELD - Full disclosure has finally come out on gamer Shawn Green falling off the face of the earth this season, as he now admits he's playing on a bad shoulder that will need surgery. If he's recovered and mashing next spring then he's a great comeback candidate. Remember he has hit 35+ home runs in four of the previous five years. Milton Bradley's current DL stint should hold down his salary figure for '04, where he should become a five-category All-Star. Look for continued development from Tampa's Rocco Baldelli, especially in the power department. Don't forget about Austin Kearns, who had 46 RBI by the end of May before going down with a season ending injury. Ditto for the Cubs Corey Patterson, although his torn ACL makes him questionable for the beginning of '04 and will hamper his stolen base totals. Marlon Byrd hasn't shown much in the speed or power departments, but is pushing .300 and perhaps a good player to scout during this year's playoffs. Vladimir Guerrero has hit over .350 since returning from injury along with 10 HR and 25 RBI but his steals are down considerably. Where he winds up in free agency will be an interesting off-season story to say the least. Albert Pujols should have the best numbers of anyone with the exception of perhaps A-Rod in '04.
STARTING PITCHERS - Considering he has only won 11 games this year, Pedro Martinez should come at an ever so slight discount. Rich Harden, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb and Josh Beckett should come very affordable, with Beckett perhaps being next year's Jason Schmidt. Mark Prior is the early line favorite to win next years Cy Young, and is good enough to be on your roster regardless of prices. Teammate Carlos Zambrano is another affordable possibility. This years groin problem should help keep Roy Oswalt's value down while Matt Morris' DL stint should likewise make him slightly more affordable. There is always Kevin Brown, but remember he is 39 next year. The end may be in sight for Randy Johnson (40 + bum knee) while Curt Schilling should be the best bet among the greybeards. Besides Jason Schmidt, also take a look at Sidney Ponson who is on fire lately and should thrive in the NL. As an added bonus Ponson hails from Aruba, the island Dutch settlement which is on my radar for either my next vacation (w/my CDM prize winnings of course) or my next exile. Beware on Estaban Loiaza, who has all the makings of being a one-year aberration.
RELIEF PITCHERS - There should be plenty of options in '04, as this is a position where cheap salaries are traditionally desired - not unlike kickers in football. David Riske recently became the closer in Cleveland, and has 74 K's in 68.1 IP while holding the opposition to a .190 average. I also look for Ryan Wagner to become the Cincinnati closer with equally electric stuff. And then there is the Houston, where Billy Wagner figures to leave via free agency. Octovio Dotel (86 K's in 77 IP) and Brad Lidge (91 K's in 77 IP) are more than capable of filling that void. Danny Kolb (16 saves, 1.85 ERA) looks to be the closer in Milwaukee where the team now looks much more respectable. In addition there will be open auditions with Toronto, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and the White Sox. And then there is San Diego and San Francisco where Trevor Hoffman and Rob Nen are both slated to return. If you like Cadallacs, there is always John Smoltz and Eric Gagne. I would consider Gagne regardless of price as he is on pace to perhaps become the greatest closer ever. LIf you need them - and hopefully you don't, what's left of the Pirates play eight home games this week and may even draw 100,000. Teams playing seven times include MTL, CIN, NYM, MIL, STL, SD, SF, NYY, BAL, TB, BOS, MN, CLE, KC, DET, SEA, TX, AND CHC. Teams at home all week include PHI, PIT, STL, LA, COL, BAL, CLE, MN and TX while FL, HOU, CIN, AZ, SD, NYY, KC, TOR, and SEA will be on the road. Houston and San Diego visit Colorado while Kansas City and Minnesota will attempt to climb back into the divisional race playing Detroit. Two-turn starters should include Pedro Martinez, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, Estaban Loaiza, Mark Prior, and possibly Roy Halladay and Rich Harden. CDM's next to last free agent list of the year is as follows...
PROSPECT WATCH - JOSE REYES
Since being signed out of the Dominican Republic at age 16 in 1999, Reyes has been on the fast track to the majors starting with full-season A ball in 2001 where he hit .307 with 15 triples and 30 steals - quite impressive for a player that age. Reyes then stole 58 bases between A and AA in 2002 then stole 26 bases in 42 games for AAA Norfolk this season before getting the call from the big club. With the Mets, Reyes is hitting .307 with 5 HR, 32 RBI and 13 SB in 69 games (including a 15-game hitting streak) before being sidelined by a bum ankle. Some Met fans like to compare him to Alfonso Soriano but the power is not there at least yet, although at 160 lbs there is plenty of room to grow. Rafael Furcal may be a better comparison. Has drawn plenty of raves with his defensive work from Day 1, which being from the Dominican should be of no surprise. Like Soriano he does not walk much, but he doesn't strike out much neither. Says one scout, 'he swings at everything'. A switch-hitter, some feel he needs more experience from the left side, but he's hitting .340 there as opposed to .225 as a right-handed batter.
OTHER NOTES
Expos 2B Jose Vidro isn't long for this season, he is hampered badly by a bum knee and has been relegated to pinch-hitting this week. Have a feeling he may stay in Peurto Rico when the team departs this week. Dont tell Vladimir Guerrero on what a hitters paradise San Juan is, going into Thursday's game he was 10-53 for the year there. To little surprise, John Smoltz will be held back another week as the playoffs are the focus here. Hopefully you heeded my advice on starting all possible Yankees this week - Mike Mussina has already chalked up a win, Jorge Posada racked up 7 RBI in a game v. DET and Hideki Matsui has also been huge. Curt Schilling was scratched from his start with a myriad of ailments, I have a feeling he will soon be in 'shutdown mode'. A couple of Javy Lopez home runs give him 39 for the season, pulling to within two of the single-season record for catchers. Eight shutout innings this week lowers Pedro Martinez's lifetime ERA in Baltimore to 1.05 (60 IP). You think Jose Mesa has the admiration of the locals with a home ERA of 7.76??? The Phillies are actually considering having him close on the road, where his ERA is only 4.82. The chances of Miguel Tejada staying in Oakland appear slimmer every day, as he is already talking openly of potentially going to Anaheim.
WEEK 25 PREVIEW
1B - Ryan Klesko (1400) - BA and slugging percentage way down.
2B - Fernando Vina (1120) - Maybe if your league counts HBP's.
3B - Adrian Beltre (1050) - He's good when they're in Colorado, but that was last week.
SS - Jose Valentin (910) - BA always an issue, but headed for his fourth straight 25 HR season.
OF - Larry Walker (1400) - His last days as a Rock???
OF - Mike Cameron (1210) - Another average killer.
SP - Mike Hampton (760) - Like Darryl Kile before him, is returning to old form after escaping Coors.
SP - Brandon Webb (750) - TWO STARTS THIS WEEK!!!!!
RP - Mike McDougal (750) - Jeremy Affeldt getting an auditon as Royals closer.