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2004 KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET - WEEK 23


HOME PARK KEEPING ICHIRO FROM .400 RUN



Yet another season has seemingly flown by, and now September has arrived with all it�s callups. If not in contention, it is very easy to get distracted right now with Olympics, political conventions, this thing called football, oh just getting one last summer fling in. Myself, I spent the weekend downloading Laura Branigan music (R.I.P) than follow my local team hit rock bottom yet again. When Branigan composed �The Lucky One� twenty years ago I don�t think she had the Brewers or Navin Johnson in mind. My innocence has slipped away and it ain�t coming back soon.

But there is still plenty to follow, if for no other reason than to get a pulse on getting ready for next year. Here are some of the more noteworthy developments�

Ichiro � Not to take away from the recent home run exploits of McGwire/Bonds/Sosa, but this deserves just as much attention. I have a feeling though that outside of Japan this won�t be quite as appreciated. Finishing the month with three consecutive three hit games, Ichiro finishes the month with 56 hits, the most anyone has gotten in a month in 66 years, and also becomes the first player ever to record three 50+ hit months. All of this keeps Ichiro on pace to break MLB�s single-season hit record which has stood since 1920. Sure it was 154 games v. 162, but the current schedule has now been played for over 40 years without anyone challenging George Sisler. Ichiro had 11 games of three hits or more, including two four-hit games and a five-hit effort. Ichiro opened September with five more hits in two games, giving him 14 knocks in a five game period. For the past four months, Ichiro is hitting a cool .401, in 204 AB�s since the All-Star break he�s hitting an unworldly .469 � that�s a better percentage than most NBA off-guards. Safeco Field actually hurts Ichiro, he only hits .354 there as opposed to .393 on the road. The slugging percentage difference is even more profound, .508 on the road as opposed to .425 in Seattle � and Ichiro also has 34 of his 52 RBI away from home.

But the best attribute about Ichiro as far as fantasy baseball is concerned is the sheer volume of At-Bats. With his speed (31 steals), pitchers aren�t going to walk him, putting Ichiro on pace to amass 705 AB�s this season, which would make him only the third player to obtain 700 AB�s in a season. And that�s after missing a game last week after getting bean and despite the fact that he�s on a team with an excellent chance to lose 100 games this year. If you have Ichiro chances are you have a stranglehold on the batting average category considering that his batting average would factor twice that of Barry Bonds (who will end up with 350 AB�s if he�s lucky).

260 hits in a year, think of it again, at that pace he would amass 3,000 hits in just 11 and a half years. Had he started his career in America Pete Rose�s record would be in serious jeopardy.

Astros � Never mind Hurricane Frances, it is Carlos Beltran that is a category five right now, earning Player of the Week honors after hitting six home runs, along with 11 RBI�s, 10 runs, and four steals while hitting .435. Beltran helped propel the Astros on a 14-3 streak that suddenly has them within three games of the Cubs for the Wild Card, and scuttled a trade that would had seen Jeff Kent go to Oakland in what would had been a patented late-season Moneyball trade. Beltran has now crossed home plate in 10 straight games and has a shot at an unprecedented 45 homer/45 steal season. Throw out the relatively low batting average (.268) and you have a case for Beltran being the #1 ranked fantasy player. Kent staying put means prospect Chris Burke (.316, 14 homers, 37 steals in AAA) won�t see much time in September, but he�s definitely a rookie to keep an eye on next year with Craig Biggio-like potential.

Marlins � Have gotten hot along with the Astros, winning seven in a row and closing to within three games of the Wild Card � but unfortunately all three games of a key series with the Cubs will in all likelihood be washed out by Frances. There is talk of a possible doubleheader Sunday if the storm passes, or a makeup on September 20 when both teams are off. Not surprisingly, the Cubs offered to play one of the makeups in Wrigley when the teams meet again next weekend. What the hell, lets just have a six-game series in Wrigley while we�re at it. Carl Pavano has now won 16 games with a 3.09 ERA.

On an off-beat note, the Marlins brought catcher Matt Treanor back up with the roster expansion. Along with Nomar Garciaparra, Treanor had the most vested interest in the Olympics � he is engaged to beach volleyball queen Misty May. In addition, Carl Pavano is dating Actress Alyssa Milano and Josh Beckett is with model/sportscaster Leeann Tweeden (54321).

Yankees � The curse of the Bambino may have met it�s match in the curse of KACSPORTS. At the All-Star break KACSPORTS projected the Yankees as AL East champions, whoops. The Yanks lost nine of their final 15 August games, punctuated by an embarrassing 22-0 loss to Cleveland, the worst loss of approximately 15,000 games of Yankee baseball. In the process their once insurmountable lead over the Red Sox is now down to 3 � game, perhaps a reverse 1978 if you will. Some even think the Yanks could miss the playoffs altogether, but that�s crazy-talk � New York is still seven games up on the Angels and should get well in a two week stretch beginning this weekend that includes the Orioles, D-Rays, Orioles again, and the Royals. Meanwhile the Red Sox are riding a nine game win streak, including a sweep of Anaheim that severely damages the Angels playoff hopes.

The good news for owners of Yankee players is that the team can�t afford to go into cruise control as has been the case in recent years, ensuring production from Arod, Matsui, Sheffield, et al into the final week. It may also eventually bode well considering the theory (see 2003 Marlins, �02 Angels) that teams that fight their way into the playoffs do well once they get there. That said, the Yanks pitching staff is a mess and seeing Oakland or the Twins making quick work of them in the playoffs is a strong possibility.

Oakland � On one of their patented August runs, winning 13 of 14 while opening up precious breathing room in the AL West. Third baseman Eric Chavez is especially hot, with 6 HR in the last two weeks.

Padres � A double dose of awards coming this way � SP Jake Peavy was named NL Pitcher of the Month after going 4-0 with a 2.03 ERA. Peavy has allowed two runs or fewer in 18 of his 20 starts this year. Meanwhile shortstop Khahil Greene was named Rookie of the Month after hitting .311 (32-103) and perhaps more importantly for fantasy owners, belted four home runs.

Clint Barmes � This would be your prospect for the week. And shortstops in the Rockies organization who can steal some bases and have a little pop in their bat should get anyone�s attention. Barmes hit 16 homers and stole 20 bases while hitting .328 at Colorado Springs. Barmes came into the year ranked only 21st among Rockie prospects but has developed quickly over the past two years, although don�t expect to much more than 20 steals. His potential isn�t as high as Khahil Greene or Bobby Crosby, but then again it�s Colorado and incumbent Royce Clayton isn�t a long-term answer for anyone.

Rick Ankiel � Not worthy of fantasy consideration but a nice story, Ankiel was called up to the Cardinals for the first time since May 10, 2001. If you recall, Ankiel was one of the games fastest rising pitching stars in 1999-2000 until he inexplicably lost all command and eventually blew his arm out. Ankiel says his game plan now is efficiency as opposed to trying to overpower everyone. Ankiel had a pair of impressive outings recently in the minors, including going six innings without allowing an earned run and walking no one. Also you may recall that Ankiel was a tremendous hitting pitcher. Look for Ankiel to get some spot work this month as the rest of the staff tunes up for the playoffs � and KACSPORTS projects St. Louis as the NL Central champs.

Carl Crawford � Has sat the last few days with what was diagnosed as shoulder inflammation. If you�re already set in steals and need help in the power departments, sitting the stolen base leader this month may not be a bad idea.


TOP WEEK 22 PICK-UPS (SEPTEMBER EXPANSION)

Ichiro-Mania is factored in with this weeks pick-ups, but Adrian Beltre and Johan Santana were not-surprisingly the big pick-ups...

Beltre 619, Santana 388, Lidge 217, Loretta 208, C. Guillen 196, Hermanson 144, Oliver Perez 143, C. Patterson 136, Ichiro 131, Cordero 107


AL PITCHING ANALYSIS

Anaheim � Starting pitching is the Achilles� heel, but you may have forgotten about setup man Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod has whiffed 102 in just 68 innings (or an even 1.5 per) and may just be as dominating as Gagne if he becomes the closer next year, as expected. And remember K-Rod is still just 22.

Baltimore � Another current set-up man who could very well be a dominating closer in 2005 is B.J Ryan, who has struck out 102 in 72 innings and opponents hit only .201.

Boston � We haven�t talked about Pedro much this year. Well he quietly had a nice August striking out 56 in 44 innings and had a nice ratio of .95. About the first time in recent memory there haven�t been late season issues with him. Curt Schilling continues to be the Peyton Manning of starting pitching, 17 wins, a 3.39 ERA/1.13 ratio. About exactly what you would had expected back in March. Only negative is that the strikeouts are slightly down. And what the hell ever happened to Derek Lowe (5.22/1.59).

White Sox � Jose Contreras finally has some value now that he has a regular gig and has found some consistency, going 4-1 in August. That said, I still feel he�s a 9 ER in 2 1/3 inning outing wating to happen, he�s just overdue.

Cleveland � Lack of strikeouts is a negative, but Jake Westbrook (12-6, 3.42 ERA) is one of my better FA pickups of the season � he�ll spin a 3-hit shutout before you realized what happened. The comeback of Bob Wickman (7 saves in August) has been a great story and has finally brought stability to the bully.

Minnesota � Johan Santana is really slowing down. In July Johan was 1.17/.63 which ballooned to 2.08/.83 in August. That said, Santana has still won his last seven decisions, the AL Cy Young will be a no-brainer by this time next month. Closer Joe Nathan had a horrible week recently which saw his ERA climb from .82 to 1.70 � I�ll still take it.

Yankees � Orlando Hernandez has to be the free agent pick-up of the second half, going 6-0 with a nice 2.62 ERA and striking out just over a batter per inning. Closer Mariano Rivera has been as consistent as ever, with ratios of 1.00, 1.00, and 1.01 in the last three seasons.

Oakland � Barry Zito (4.58/1.45) fell from the top echelon of starting pitchers this year, but has been decent in the last month and could be a nice bargain next year. Mark Mulder (17.4/3.79) remains a Cy Young candidate and Tim Hudson (10-4/2.84) would be if not for a month-long DL stint. Rich Harden has also had a nice first-full campaign, going 9-5 with a 3.69 ERA and 138 K�s in 158.2 IP.

Tampa Bay � Phenom Scott Kazmir was brought up to the big club with some shaky results thus far. However Kazmir has hit 96 on the gun, the command now has to be honed down. He will only be 21 on opening day next year so it will probably be 2006-07 before he is solid.

Toronto � Roy Halladay hopes to return this month, but I don�t see that making much sense. Could be a nice cap bargain in �05 if you can work around his having to go constantly against the Yankees and Red Sox.


WEEK 23 SCHEDULE

Note: Besides Cubs/Marlins, there may be postponements in the Tigers/Devil Rays series. The two teams both have an off-day on 9/23, and also play each other in Detroit on the season�s final weekend, so any games scrapped this weekend will probably be made up.

As you can see, it is getting very staggered as far as games played are concerned, this is a good week to pay attention�

8 GAMES: NYY, TB, HOU, PIT

7 GAMES: BOS, CWS, DET, KC, TX, ATL, CIN, MIL, PHI, SD

6 GAMES: ANH, BAL, MN, OAK, SEA, TOR, AZ, CHC, COL, FL, LA, MTL, NYM, STL

5 GAMES: CLE, SF

HOME: ANH, BAL, DET, OAK, SEA, TX, ATL, CHC, COL, LA, PIT

ROAD: BOS, CWS, CLE, MN, TB, TOR, MIL, MTL, PHI, STL, SF

That means Cleveland and Frisco are double-whammied with five road games, although two of the Giants games will be in Colorado. The Padres get a four game set at Coors.

TWO STARTS (Marlins/Cubs not included): Orlando Hernandez, Johan Santana, Jaret Wright, Roy Oswalt, Ben Sheets, Jake Peavy


CDM FREE AGENT LIST (recommended purchases in bold)

C � Jason LaRue (600) � Has 13 home runs, but doesn�t play every day and BA will kill you.
1B � Rafael Palmeiro (1340) � Too bad they can�t make Viagra for his power stroke. After ten straight years of 37+ bombs (excluding �94) Palmeiro only has 14 this year.
2B � Alex Cora (530) � No power or speed, can�t even recommend him in a playoff league.
3B � Ty Wigginton (830) � Only 18-99 as a Pirate � pass.
SS � Alex Cintron (450) � People have been dropping him all year.
OF � Randy Winn (1280) � Decent average and gets some steals, but if you�re going to pay this much you might as well get that other Mariner outfielder.
OF � Rocco Baldelli (870) � Down in most categories, especially steals.
SP � Roy Oswalt (1200) � The only one I would really recommend this week.
SP � Eric Milton (750)
� Phillie pitchers not recommended.
RP � Bob Wickman (920) � Not a bad option if you need a closer and only have an FA move left.





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