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2002 FANTASY BASEBALL WEEK 23 PREVIEW - WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Is Baez next year's Gagne???


Following marathon negotiations with KACSPORTS, I have finally reached a contract agreement that increases my compensation by - absolutely nothing. Oh well, I'm claiming victory anyway.

While baseball�s version of the Y2K crisis was taking place, plenty was going on the field. The rundown is as follows�

Danys Baez (CLE) � It is so refreshing to see a MLB team announce their long-term plans � unlike Jim Tracy who had Eric Gagne closing as secretive as National Security. With usual closer Bob Wickman (who had been battling elbow problems all year) now shelved to late next year at the earliest due to Tommy John Surgery � the organization announced to the world this week that Baez will close for the remainder of this year as well as �03. Mark Wohlers had been closing recent game in the interim, but he simply projects better as a set-up man at this point in his career. As a member of the starting rotation this year, Baez has simply been up-and-down (9-10 4.44/1.47). More impressive though is 122 strikeouts in 155 IP, which bodes well for a potential closer. When starters audition to become closers, strikeouts are the best criteria to go by. Remember, Eric Gagne�s numbers as a starter were way less than spectacular, but he has always had the strikeout ability. be Baez closed his first game v. Detroit this week without incident. If available, Baez should definitely be snapped up. As far as CDM is concerned, Baez is already listed as a reliever � and at his salary presents definite possibilities for those trying to create cap room. And Baez should also be reasonably priced next year � unless Danys saves 15 games in September and CDM goes way overboard on his salary, like what happened with John Smoltz this year.

Junior Spivey (AZ) � I offer as required reading an ESPN.com column by Tom Candiotti on Spivey in which Candiotti believes Spivey has the power and speed to become an Alfonzo Soriano-like 30-30 force. Looking at this years #�s (.316/85/12/66/10) shows that he isn�t far from becoming a 5-category stud. The BA, runs, and RBI is already there and the power is clearly developing, and often takes a few years to manifest itself in most players. A jump from 15 (projected for this year) up to the 25-30 level is definitely out of the question. Also Junior has already come a long way in the BA department, as he was hitting .232 in AAA as recently as last year. That leaves stolen bases, which simply is at the mercy of the player himself as well as the coaches/manager giving him the green light. Junior does have the stolen base ability, collecting 42 SB�s between A and AA ball in 1998. Spivey�s CDM salary will go up significantly for �03, but 5-category possibilities can simply not be ignored at this position.

Sean Burroughs (SD) � About to get a September call-up with the Padres after going (.303/2/21) in 43 games in AAA playing second base. Hopefully, Burroughs will get enough work at second for CDM to list him at that position for next year. Then he becomes a great bargain to couple with the likes of Spivey/Soriano etc.

Marlon Byrd (PHI) - Will probably be the most watched of September callups. Has been decent, but not exactly tearing in up at AAA, sitting at .294/12/59/14 at last count. Should still be on track for being a full five-category force a couple years down the road.

Hank Blalock (TX) - Also should get a call-up next week. Without the pressure of being 'the next George Brett' that accomponied him back in April, he should give an idea of his real worth for next season.

Joe Crede (CWS) � Like Burroughs, another third base prospect that didn�t quite pan out this year but is now making waves with a late-season callup. In case you missed it Crede hit a game-tying two run homer in the ninth off Kelvim Escobar, ruining a potential Roy Hallady win. Crede then proceeded to hit a walk-off grand slam an inning later. Joe now has 5 HR and 13 RBI in 93 AB�s, which gives a small indication on what he could accomplish in a full season, and this week�s bust-out should go a long ways towards providing confidence for him to reach that.

Raul Ibanez (KC) � Already qualifies at first and in the outfield in most leagues. Now the Royals want to get him a look at third and even behind the plate. I�m not convinced we�ll see him with the tools of ignorance anytime soon, but could you imagine his value at that position the way he�s been going (22 HR/89 RBI)???

Greg Maddux (ATL) � Talk about Maddux�s impending free agent status is heating up again, mainly due to only averaging an uncharacteristic six innings per start this year � although his other #�s (11-5, 1.19/2.56) have been fine. Another possible red flag is the fact that Greg only has 93 K�s in 165.1 IP. Down from 173 K�s in 223 IP last year. Potential suitors include of all teams San Diego, where his buddy Rick Sutcliffe is a Padre cheerleader, I mean broadcaster. Surprisingly though, Arizona may also be in the running. Schilling/Unit/Maddux � If that happens avoid players going against that team in a given week for sure. In a related matter Tom Glavine is also eligible for free agency, Kevin Millwood is eligible for free agency next year, and Damian Moss is also due for arbitration. Maddux, Millwood, and Moss are all represented by Super A-hole agent Scott Boras. Again, I feel AOL/TW will do the right thing and max out their credit cards before going under � as any good crooks would do.

Jeff Kent/Barry Bonds (SF) � Guess my advice from last week worked pretty good, eh. If you played for the strike, or even if you didn�t � and played just one of the two for the four-gamer in Colorado you came out great. And if you happened to have both???!!!!! Here is the damage: Bonds � 10-17 7 runs, 5 HR, 7 RBI, Kent � 8-18, 6 runs, 5 HR, 10 RBI. That may end up gaining some money for wise CDM owners. Yes, playing someone just for one series in Colorado can pay huge dividends.

Roy Oswalt (HOU) � Has ripped off seven straight wins with a 1.03 ERA and .84 ratio over his past 52 1/3 IP. Rank him #5 on next year�s starting pitcher cheat sheets, behind Pedro, Unit, Schilling, and Zito. Mark Prior would probably go #6 on that list right now. Be aware though that he has dropped his appeal of a five-game suspension (alleged beanball retaliation). Under normal circumstances that would not be a big deal, it would just set him back one day. However, in the case of a brief work stoppage - he would not be eligible till the Astros fifth game back.

Casey Fossum (BOS) - Recently moved into rotation and merits attention with a 3.44 ERA along with 63 K's in 73 IP.

Josh Beckett (FLA) � Came down with yet another blister and has been officially shut down for the year. Either that or Marlins management is making darn sure he doesn�t have a case for arbitration. He should still be a bargain for next year.

Austin Kearns (CIN) � Came down with what was described as �a badly pulled hamstring� and was DL�d immediately this week. Some feel he�ll be back in 15 days, but I have a feeling that Kearns will be shut down for good with the Reds free-falling out of playoff contention.

Paul Konerko (CWS) � Yet another member of the walking wounded, D-T-D with a bum foot that has been bothering him all year. The White Sox are yet another team way out of it, making Konerko another candidate to be shut down.

Mark Bellhorn (CHC) � Became only the second player in MLB history to hit homers from each side of the plate in the same inning. For the entire year Bellhorn is sitting at .259/71/23/49/5 in 344 AB�s. The average and RBI�s need work, but has enough power to make him yet another intriguing second base candidate for next year.

Jay Payton (COL) � Yet another example of how a fantasy afterthought in a normal locale becomes a roto-stud playing every day for the Rockies. One month with Colorado saw Jay hit .394 with 24 runs, 7 homers, 22 RBI and even three steals. Multiply that by six and you have Dante Bichette reincarnated. It looks like Payton will be the choice over banjo-hitting Juan Pierre for next season.

Rafael Palmeiro (TX) � Rafi gets thrown in this week for historical perspective, for he�s this generations Eddie Murray. Translated: Amazingly consistent, but so much so that he flies under the radar. That and he didn�t meet the lofty expectations placed upon him early in his career as a Cubs prospect. Rafi blossomed after being discarded by the Cubs after only hitting eight homers and 53 RBI�s in 580 AB�s in 1988. Palmeiro�s career did not really take flight until 1993. Since then he has hit at least 37 homers per year with the exception of the strike year of �94. Of course Rafi has never hit 50, thus has never really been among the league leaders and not getting the publicity of Griffey, Sosa, McGwire, Bonds, Arod etc. Since the strike settlement of April �95, when Palmeiro was 30 � he has 329 home runs, ranking only behind Sosa (398), Bonds (349), and McGwire (345). During that same span Palmeiro has 958 RBI, only ranking behind Sosa at 1031. Palmeiro and Sosa are the only two to have 100+ RBI�s each year since �95. Should the season resume, both are sure bets to reach triple-figures again. Barring a prolonged work stoppage � look for Rafi to get 500 early next season (he�s at 484 now) and to approach the high rent district of 600 by the end of his often overlooked career.


THIS WEEKS SCHEDULE

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Actually the schedule is up in the air as I speak, so check your local listings. As it stands right now, it should be a great week for double-duty starts including Pedro Martinez, Barry Zito, Roy Oswalt, Kerry Wood, and Odalis Perez. However should MLB be put on ice for a few days, then look for most of the staff aces for the first game back. In the event of a work stoppage of a week or less, look for all games to be made up. Also MLB rosters are expanded on September 1, meaning teams will not have to place players on the DL - so be careful where it comes to the injury front. Most favorable schedule in the AL belongs to the Yankees with seven home tilts (3 v. BOS/4 v. DET), on the NL side St. Louis has six nice matchups at home (CIN/CHC). Other teams playing seven times include BOS, TOR, CLE, CWS, DET, MIL, CHC, MTL, NYM, PHI, MIL, CHC, and SD. Meanwhile OAK, SEA, KC, AND MN only play five. Houston is on the road all week while COL does have three at home v. SD.

CDM's free agent list for this week is as follows...

C 10 AUSMUS, BRAD HOU 690000
1B 124 MIENTKIEWICZ, DOUG MIN 890000
2B 201 ALOMAR, ROBERTO NYM 1570000
3B 313 BELTRE, ADRIAN LA 890000
SS 418 CLAYTON, ROYCE CWS 780000
OF 529 FLOYD, CLIFF BOS 1220000
OF 569 SALMON, TIM ANA 830000
SP 842 MILLWOOD, KEVIN ATL 920000
SP 859 WELLS, DAVID NYY 780000
RP 1114 KOCH, BILLY OAK 1280000





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