2003 KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET - WEEK 23
CRAWFORD, MANTEI HOT PROPERTY AGAIN
Sometimes it seems amazing how events that happen only once in a great while occur right in front of your nostrils � and how a lot of these rare events come together. On the week that sees Mars making closest approach to Earth in 60,000 years (I imagine Elias came up with that one), the Milwaukee Brewers come up with their longest winning streak in 60,000 years. And we only get to witness a complete train wreck like the Detroit Tigers only once in 60,000 years along with Mark Mulder suffering the first stress fracture of the hip suffered by a pitcher in 60,000 years. I don�t want to guess what could be on the horizon next.
Anyways, the tallies are in regarding the top 20 pick-ups for roster expansion week. There are many of the usual suspects, but also some surprises thrown in � with teams taking note of some hot performances over the weekend. The drumroll please�
- Marcus Giles 2B-ATL (296)
� That�s who the smart money was on, and a safe conservative play at a cheap price that almost can�t go wrong. I did have a brass play to offer however for those really willing to roll the dice. . Texas� Michael Young has amazingly similar numbers (.308/87/11/61/11 in 129 games) than Giles (.310/85/18/63/11 in 119 games). Sure, Giles has a few more homers and costs 400 to Young�s 590. However, factor in that Giles is sure to get some rest time in September and you can start to make a case for Young. And if one were to pick Young and Giles were to get hit by a bus, then that team is bound to make up some ground in the standings real quick-like.
- Carl Crawford OF-TB (280)
� Everyone has suddenly jumped on this bandwagon, showing again how much in demand steals, especially cheap steals are. Crawford is suddenly now on 120 of the top 250 teams, with many now replacing Crawford for Dave Roberts. Carl now has 957 adds along with 689 drops � with many teams breaking that unwritten rule of not picking up a player that was dropped earlier on. In this case you clearly can�t blame the owners who dropped Crawford back in April or May nor those who are now tabbing him.
- Jose Guillen OF-OAK (264)
� The cheap selection of those looking for power rather than speed.
- Esteban Loaiza SP-CWS (240)
� As popular as I thought he�d be, with a favorable schedule and seven starts in the final five weeks on a team that will fight for a playoff spot down to the final weekend. A healthy combo.
- Javy Lopez C-ATL (208)
� Continues a steady stream of Lopez buys that has gone on since June.
- Matt Mantei RP-AZ (186)
� Those who dropped him on the DL back in June (put me in this group) are no doubt kicking themselves, as Mantei suddenly became Eric Gagne like � and has been unscored upon in 20.2 innings since, recording 28 strikeouts along with 13 saves. Considering the DL stint, the history of arm trouble and the way he was getting cuffed around early on � I did not see this coming.
- Johan Santana SP-MN (152)
� My great secret is no longer thanks to a 4-0 record along with a 1.25 ERA and 40 K�s in 36 IP this month. Drawing Cleveland and Detroit in four of his five starts certainly did not hurt.
- Gary Sheffield OF-ATL (143)
� I know he�s cheaper, but I�m surprised Sheff got more play than Albert Pujols this week.
- Carlos Zambrano SP-CHC (124)
� Guess many had G-N on last Friday night when he pitched his no-hitter. We all know Hillenbrand was out (and the umpire came as close to admitting it as you�ll ever see) but that was just too close to the naked eye. Not to mention Aram and Simon actually made great plays. Zambrano�s gem lowered his ERA to 2.94 but walks are an issue here.
- Vernon Wells OF-TOR (105)
� Again I remain amazed on just how many don�t have him.
- Juan Pierre OF-FLA (103)
� A pedestrian five steals in the month of August. Half the steals for more than double the price of Crawford may not be wise.
- Jason Schmidt SP-SF (100)
� Am even more shocked at how many don�t have him. 80 percent plus of the top teams went for his two-start week despite the fact they were in Colorado and Arizona.
- Tim Worrell RP-SF (93)
� Has struggled recently, should be fine for the stretch run however.
- Chris Reitsma SP-CIN (79)
� Expected some play here from those desperate for saves on the converted closer. I just don�t see Cincy winning a lot the rest of the way.
- Bill Mueller 3B-BOS (75)
- .328 BA sounds good to those tiring of Aaron Boone�s downward spiral.
- Eric Gagne SP-LA (70)
� Not much else to say here. Smoltz's DL stint should lock up the Cy Young for him.
- Albert Pujols OF-STL (68)
� With apologies to Barry Bonds (like he would care???), Pujols is the NL MVP this year.
- Rocco Baldelli OF-TB (67)
� Has cooled down some in recent months but still a solid rookie year. Should be a five-cat threat in coming years.
- Scott Podsednik OF-MIL (56)
� Incredibly hot going 20-40 along with nine runs in a three game series this past weekend. And then there are the steals, with two swipes of third along with a steal of second on a pitch-out in recent games. Even at 750, a nice value buy.
- Shigetoshi Hasegawa RP-SEA (52)
� Can�t believe he got only slightly more play than Rocky Biddle, who is within an inch of losing his closers gig (which will actually be a relief to those who own him). It has been announced that Hasegawa will continue to close with Kaz Sasaki being utilized as a set-up man. Considering Hasegawa�s microscopic ERA/ratio (0.76/.94) you can�t argue. One huge drawback though as Hasegawa averages less than a strikeout every two innings, which is murder against the likes of Mantei.
***
Red flags appeared last week when he wasn't used in a pair of extra-inning games in SF that Barry Bonds ended up winning. Now we know something is up with Atlanta ace-closer John Smoltz who is placed on the DL with elbow tendonitis. Smoltz was used in a pair of games in Colorado over the weekend, so he was still starting on approximately 75 percent of the teams who owned him in CDM. This doesn't appear to be a long-term problem but the history of elbow trouble is there. Remember what I said about the Braves resting some players in September, this is a perfect example. Atlanta will continue to cruise to the best record in the NL without Smoltz, so this is not that much of a surprise.
The other big injury of the week was Oakland ace Mark Mulder, as last weeks 'strained hip' winds up being diagnosed as a hairline fracture. That is a new one on me, Mulder is done for the regular season. Pedro Martinez's missed assignment from last week sparked the usual firestorm from local sportswriters and the sports-talk radio scene questioning Pedro's toughness, with Pedro barking back in return. However Martinez was able to come back a day early to notch yet another win v. Seattle, a team he absolutely owns. Frank Thomas has been busy turning the clock back to 1993, or at least 2000 when he had 43 HR and 143 RBI. Thomas has belted 26 HR's and 62 RBI since June. Another long-forgotten fantasy force on a tear is Miguel Tejada who went 18-34 with 6 HR in an eight-game stretch. Geoff Jenkins has also been a factor in the recent Milwaukee hot streak, in 123 games Jenkins is hitting .291 with 27 home runs and 94 RBI, fulfulling the potential aborted by several injury-plagued seasons. As an extra bonus Jenkins is one of the best defensive outfielders around.
I thought it would wait until the off-season, but Brian Giles was dealt to San Diego in a rare post-deadline deal involving a star player in the prime of his career. The Pirates do get potential stud pitcher Oliver Perez in return. This could go either way, Oliver can either not get over his erraticness - or he can develop and make this look like a smart deal from a Pirate perspective, at least until he demands mega-bucks five years from now.
PROSPECT OF THE WEEK
For the next four weeks we will look at a player who has the potential to break through in 2004. This series starts by looking at Cincinnati reliever Ryan Wagner, who made the rare transition this year from being a first-round amateur draft choice (#14 overall) to playing in the majors, needing only a month to get through AA and AAA on his way to the Reds out of the University of Houston. Quite impressive especially considering most top choices do not sign immediately. In his very first appearance Wagner retired all five batters, topping out at 93-94 MPH as 13 of his 16 pitches were for strikes. The fastball, along with a devastating sinker made Wagner one of the most prolific relievers in college ball, recording 16.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 2002 and setting a UH record by recording 15 saves. There is some concern about Wagner's delivery, which was described by Jeff Bagwell as 'funky'. Wagner's delivery creates a lot of torque, but the Reds have elected not to tinker with it at this point. The team is also being very careful not to over-use Wagner, but the numbers have been eye-popping nonetheless, with 22 K's in 19 IP along with a 1.95 ERA. Wagner thus far has held opposing batters to a .138 BA. He will continue to be used in middle relief for the balance of this year, but the 21 year-old is as good a bet as any to close next season with Scott Williamson now gone.
WEEK 22 PREVIEW
Check the schedules very carefully this week. Colorado, San Diego, and the White Sox only play five games. Meanwhile a slew of make-up games (including two interleague contests) muddles things even further. The Cubs and Cardinals play eight games (including five v. each other in Chicago) while PIT, KC, ATL, PHI, AZ, FL, NYM, CLE, and DET play seven times. Teams spending most or all of the week at home include SF, MIL, PHI, SD, MN, CWS, TOR, TB, and BAL. Those on the road include AZ, PIT, CIN, HOU, OAK, BOS, CLE, SEA, and KC.
It is a monster week for two-turn starters including Curt Schilling, Barry Zito, Wade Miller, Kerry Wood, Woody Williams (Wood v. Woody probably again), Roy Halladay, and Hideo Nomo, Dontrelle Willis, Matt Morris and Carlos Zambrano. There is also an oustide chance of Mike Mussina and Javier Vazquez going twice.
Here is the CDM Free Agent list...
C - Jason Phillips (750) - Met sees most of his time at first base, and is hitting .314 with 10 HR and 50 RBI in 93 games.
1B - Paul Konerko (1330) - Remember when he was a CDM must-have last year??? Was hitting all of .183 in early July, but has rebounded somewhat all the way up to .237.
2B - Brian Roberts (750) - An interesting factoid, Roberts survived a severe heart condition as a toddler, eventually resulting in major surgery which corrected the defect. Has 20 SB's in 85 games while hitting .264, but Jerry Hairston may re-enter the picture in September.
3B - Phil Nevin (1290) - Big grand slam this week, giving him 23 RBI in 31 games since returning from shoulder surgery.
SS - Julio Lugo (670) - Rays are at home this week, where lugo hits .306 with 23 RBI in 43 games.
OF - Chipper Jones (1640) - Need players to walk on water for this price, and Jones is only on pace for his usual .300/30/100.
OF - J.D. Drew (880) - On the DL yet again, so forget about him for this year. But keep him in mind for next year where he should be plenty cheap. As Geoff Jenkins year attests, it is worth it to keep rolling the die even on perennial injury risks.
SP - Curt Schilling (1610) - Why the Padres keep rocking him at home is beyond me, the good news is Schilling is in SD next weekend where he has much more success.
SP - Johan Santana (550) - By far the best buy out of this list this week.
RP - Byung-Hyun Kim (1360) - Soon to be the latest in a long line of Red Sox playoff goats, BK has done well in his latest closer stint. If you're stuck with Smoltz and only a FA move left, this is not a bad emergency measure.
