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2004 KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET - WEEK 22


SHUTDOWN SEASON HAS BEGUN



Welcome to the milestone 100th edition of the KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET, and things have changed since the 99th hit the presses just last week. Consider the following�



On the other end of the spectrum give credit to the Diamondbacks who actually won four out of eight games. The D-Backs need to win just six more games to avoid baseball immortality as the losing-est single-season team of all time. But it is clear the Operation Shutdown portion of the season has begun in earnest. Get ready to dump these players off your roster if you haven�t already done so�

Jose Vidro � Suffering from knee tendonitis since last season, Vidro announced that he would undergo knee surgery on September 8th, the club at that point shut him down for the year. Except for RBI, Vidro�s stats were not down much, with 14 HR and a .294 average.

Freddy Garcia � Scratched from a scheduled start this weekend with a tight forearm. The talk is that he will only miss one start, but you know how this drill goes � especially considering that the White Sox are barely in contention. Garcia has been a disappointment thus far in Chicago with a 4.79 ERA in 11 starts, following a 3.20 ERA in 15 starts in Seattle.

Preston Wilson � A lost season for the Rockies outfielder, as manager Clint Hurdle says �without a doubt� he is planning to go the rest of the way without Wilson, who could be headed for additional knee surgery. If he checks out physically next spring, he should be a nice player in salary-cap games until he becomes trade bait next July. However his 20-30 steal potential is long a thing of the past.

Billy Wagner � Didn�t he become a left-hander after he kept breaking his right arm playing football??? With tendonitis in the left shoulder, maybe he should consider being a righty again. The hope is that he will be able to pitch some in September, but there will be little to gain in Philly by that point.

Brad Penny � Considering that the Dodgers banked their 2004 chances on acquiring him, they want to desperately have him return. Penny has been DL�d since leaving the mound in pain in only his second LA start. Penny only lasted five minutes playing catch this week, complaining of continuing numbness in the forearm. The injury is considered to be an irritated nerve, and a Dodger therapist notes that he has never seen this type of problem before. This does not sound good.

Mike Sweeney � Royals first baseman has been shut down with back problems for a second consecutive year, and recent X-Rays have been sent to a noted back specialist. Sweeney has also probably seen his last AB of the season.

Danny Graves � Another DL�d due to back spasms. He should be back in a few weeks, but the Reds are also in position that they may want to look at others in the closers role in the final weeks.

Jerry Hairston � Suffers a major injury for a second straight year sustaining a broken ankle. Now the question is whether the Orioles keep Hairston or Brian Roberts.

Andy Pettitte � Astros starter undergoes surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon. Should be ready for Spring Training.


That�s just for starters, many others will call it for the season in the weeks to come. Making things harder to gauge is that players won�t necessarily be placed on the DL after rosters expand on September 1. One possible solution is to look at some of the players getting call-ups. Choo Freeman will get an audition in Colorado in place of Wilson, massive longtime prospect Calvin Pickering gets AB�s with the Royals in place of Sweeney, and could be good for upwards of 10 HR in the final month. B.J. Upton (.296/2/5) has held his own so far in Tampa Bay, and should be a top-ten shortstop next year. Also pitchers Scott Kazmir (TB) and Jeff Francis (COL) have gotten callups in the last week, both are considered future stars. If Francis gets a regular turn only two of his starts will be in Colorado.

Look for pitching to be much of the focus among teams looking at roster expansion in the CDM game this week. Those most likely to be tabbed include�

Mark Loretta (820) � Quick, who leads the National League in hits, and is hitting a cool .345 (.396 since the All-Star break) with 70 RBI?? Those who just have had enough of Marcus Giles, or saddled with Hairston�s injury, are likely to go in this direction.

Adrian Beltre (950) � Despite his MVP year, Beltre has not been necessarily a huge Challenge play, with teams opting for the likes of Scott Rolen and Aramis Ramirez. Rolen figures to sit a lot in September with the Cardinals having all but clinched that division. Thus Beltre makes way too much sense, especially considering LA will be fighting for their playoff lives for the next five weeks.

Carlos Guillen (680) � Next to Beltre, this is the biggest breakout of the year. Guillen�s .319 average would shatter his previous high BA, and has already achieved career highs in runs (92), homers (20), ribbie�s (94), and even steals (11). With Alex Rodriguez moved to third and Nomar Garciaparra injury-prone, Guillen suddenly moves to #2 (behind Miguel Tejada) among fantasy shortstops.

Ichiro Suzuki (1560) � Sure, his team is out of it and he�s not a bargain � but if you�re in desperate need of average, runs and steals, Ichiro is guaranteed production. Even with a 0-11 slump this week, Ichiro is still on pace to tie an 84-year old single-season hit record (257). Even though it would be 162 games v. 154, that would still be a remarkable achievement that should be ranked right up there with the recent home run exploits of Bonds/McGwire/Sosa. Whatever happens, you know Ichiro is one who will keep playing each game like it�s his last.

Wily Mo Pena/Jason Bay (400) � The year of the 400 bargain continues with these two. Pena gets a slight edge in the power department, but is only hitting .254 and is currently battling a sore wrist.

Johan Santana (1000) � As recently as last week, ESPN talking heads were still hailing Mark Mulder as the AL Cy Young front-runner. But aside from wins, Mulder�s stats (17-4/3.72/1.22/121 K�s) are quite ordinary to that of Santana (14-6/3.13/.98/207 K�s). An Insider article this week is finally touting Santana for the award, but I�ll save you the subscription fee � unless the balloters consist of Mulder groupie�s, it�s Johan�s to lose. Even if you dumped him when he struggled early on, you must have him now � and should have had him weeks ago.

Oliver Perez (560) � Ben Sheets season has clearly hit the wall, so many will jump on what is quickly becoming the NL�s answer to Johan Santana (184 K�s in 151 IP/2.80 ERA), who has also become by far the biggest starting pitching bargain in the game. Two starts this week, including one against the pitiful Brewers also does not hurt.

Dustin Hermanson (540) � Listed starters turned closers always figure huge this time of year, especially cheap starters turned closers. Even with Matt Herges, Giants closers have racked up a ton of saves in recent years, and Hermanson has five saves in just the last two weeks.

Tim Worrell (1110)/LaTroy Hawkins (950)/Brad Lidge (830) � The Danny Graves injury impacts the closer ranks, making these three logical choices this week. Lidge offers mega strikeouts while Hawkins will benefit with the Cubs likely to battle for a Wild Card spot right down to the final weekend. The earlier threat of the Cubs acquiring a closer is over, Hawkins should be good for the rest of this year.


SEARCHING FOR STEALS

The last two weeks I took a team-by-team look at the power numbers, this week I take a quick look at the running game�

Anaheim � Six players already in double figures in steals on the year, including Chone Figgins (27), Jeff DaVanon (15), Darin Erstad (14), Adam Kennedy (12), David Eckstein (10), and Vladimir Guerrero (10). Vlad has already surpassed last years steal total, and the teams liberal running offers hope that he could return to being a 20-25 steal man next year. DaVanon also drove in four runs in hitting for the cycle this week.

Baltimore � Brian Roberts (26 steals) only has one steal this month, but has had a solid month hitting .359 which bodes well in winning his battle with the injured Jerry Hairston.

Boston � As expected, Dave Roberts value totally evaporated upon arriving in Boston. In just 23 AB�s this month, Roberts does not have a steal.

White Sox � OF Aaron Rowland is having a nice five-category year, hitting .317 along with 19 HR/14 steals. Second baseman Willie Harris also has 13 steals in just over 300 AB�s.

Cleveland � Matt Lawton leads the team with 21 SB�s along with 19 homers. Coco Crisp has also turned into a nice five-category threat with 15 steals/12 HR in 359 AB�s.

Minnesota � Another team that likes to run, including Torii Hunter (19 steals), Lew Ford (17, along with 14 HR), Luis Rivas (14), and Jacque Jones (12).

Yankees � The welcome surprise with Alex Rodriguez�s move to New York has been his steals, with 22 already surpassing last years total of 17.

Seattle � Along with that cool .370 average, Ichiro also has 29 steals � about par for the course for him.

Tampa Bay � Carl Crawford the best stolen base threat in the game, 50 steals on the year.

Arizona � Danny Bautista leads the team with four steals!!! Enough said.

Cubs � Those who dumped Corey Patterson early in the year are wondering where this was back in April/May. Corey has seven home runs along with a whopping 11 steals this month � re-establishing his five-category potential.

Cincinnati � Looking for steals on your infield?? Ryan Freel may not offer much else, but has 27 steals and is eligible at third as well as the outfield.

Florida � Juan Pierre stole six bases in a four game stretch this week, but his 33 SB�s are still a far cry from last year�s 33.

Houston � Although just hitting .243 since the All-Star Break, the Phil Garner hiring has been an absolute Godsend. Beltran has 16 steals in just 39 games since the Garner came on board, as opposed to just one steal in 15 games under Jimy Williams. Bump his value up if he elects to stay in Houston.

Milwaukee � But at what price steals??? Scott Podsednik is second in the Majors with 46 steals, but only hitting .245.

Mets � Mike Cameron has the usual power/speed combo (27 HR/20 steals), but the usual crappy batting average as well.

Philadelphia � Bobby Abreu is simply baseball�s best five-category player this year (.290/97/27/91/31).

St. Louis � Larry Walker is becoming the rare exception of players whose stats go south upon leaving Colorado. In addition to four home runs, Walker has four steals in 17 Cardinal games.

San Diego � Freddy Guzman is only hitting .227 in his first 44 MLB AB�s but has three steals, you could get an extra ten out of him in September.


WEEK 22 PREVIEW

7 GAMES: White Sox, Giants, Marlins, Mets, Brewers, Pirates

HOME: BOS, CWS, MN, NYY, TB, TOR, MIL, MTL, STL, PHI, SF (note: Giants also have one road game)

ROAD: ANH, BAL, DET, OAK, SEA, TX, ATL, CHC, COL, LA, PIT (note: Atlanta has one home game)

TWO STARTS: Curt Schilling, Aaron Harang (start in Milwaukee), Oliver Perez (start in Milwaukee), Randy Johnson


CDM FREE AGENT LIST (recommended purchases in bold)

C � Ramon Hernandez (720) � 13 HR ranks him among the Padres team leaders
1B � Justin Morneau (430) � Yet another 400 bargain, 13 HR/38 RBI in just 174 AB�s. 2B � Placido Polando (1160) � Doesn�t do enough of anything.
3B � Tony Batista (780) � Russell Branyan-like production lots of power but little average.
SS - Jose Reyes (700) � Out with a broken leg, but had 14 steals in just 188 AB�s � worth a look next year.
OF � Vladimir Guerrero (1750) � Angels are just mashing these days, and in the thick of the AL West race.
OF � Wily Mo Pena (400) � If you need cheap power.
SP � Mark Buehrle (1050)
� ERA/WHIP unacceptable at any price.
SP � Kenny Rogers (740) � Has a chance at the highest ERA ever for a 20-game winner, no that�s not an endorsement.
RP � Octavio Dotel (1250) � Still kind of on the shaky side.





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