Welcome to the stretch drive!!! As is the case of the real life pennant races, you can be proud of yourself if you�re team is in first place, or even within shouting distance of first. If nothing else, you have proven your team to be for real. The dog days of summer tend to have a way of separating the contenders from the pretenders. Wasn�t it just yesterday that the Brewers, Pirates, and Devil Rays were thinking that they had a shot at contending???
I don�t see how anyone can still be against the wild card. Actually I was one of the ol� pukes that liked the old two division format. That was until 1998 when the Astros, Padres, and Braves ran away with their divisions. Some would consider that a bad thing, outside of the Wild Card race (Cubs beat Giants in one-game playoff) there was no divisional races in the NL that year. But what if all three were still in the old National League West??? It would had been one hell of a race but in the end two teams with 100+ wins would had been sitting home while the Cubs would had won a depleted NL East. What the hell�s that???
With that in mind a quick look at the playoff races as the season barrels into the final quarter�AL EAST � As usual, the Yankees had this puppy wrapped up by July 1st. The Red Sox are a distant second, and have to turn their attention on being in a spirited Wild Card race � more on that later. Meanwhile Tampa Bay is a cool 1-15 in their last 16 road games.
AL CENTRAL � Just a few days ago, the Cleveland Indians were on the verge of catching the Minnesota Twins for first place. But the Tribe couldn�t hold on an early lead as the Twins salvaged the final game of the three game set, then beat the Yankees for the first time in 14 tries in the regular season while the Tribe gets swept by the surging Rangers. Suddenly Cleveland is again 4� games out, but there is still time. The Tribe gets another shot at the Twins this weekend, and the two teams face off seven more times in the final two weekends of the season. The schedule maker definitely got that one right. The White Sox are still hanging around five games out.
AL WEST � It looked like the Texas Rangers were in the process of finally going away a week ago at this time, after dropping six of seven games. Reports of that demise were greatly exaggerated however, as the Rangers have stormed back to win their last six, including a 16-4 rout that saw Mark Teixeira drive in seven runs en route to hitting for the cycle. Oakland is currently in the middle of a three-week stretch against teams with losing records. While the Mariners remain way out of the race, give a big call to Ichiro who is an amazing 70-144 since the All-Star break. That�s .486 boys and girls, if he were to open the season with that he would be the talk of the World. You have to go back to Tony Gwynn in his prime to find a pure hitter like that.
AL WILD CARD � Forget the Yankees, the biggest nine game stretch of the Boston Red Sox season starts on August 31 when a 12-game stretch v. AL West teams begins. Anaheim and Texas visit Fenway before the Sox head out for Oakland. Boston gets the Yanks on the weekends of Sep 17-19 and 24-26, although the Yanks might be prepping more for the playoffs, a good tune-up would be trying to knock the Sox out of the postseason altogether. As of midweek, Boston was tied with Texas for the Wild Card with the Angels a game and a half behind.
NL EAST � Jaret Wright and the Atlanta Braves had their absolute heads handed to them in San Diego this week. It doesn�t matter. After winning a cool 35 of 47, the Bravos have come from absolutely nowhere and will win their division for the 13th consecutive time. Actually, the Braves have not won 13 straight titles, the Expos won the 1994 NL East � let�s get that straight. But still, 13 out of 14 is still not bad, but the Tidewater Bobcats will be the Braves worst nightmare in a few years. Before the San Diego debacle, Jaret Wright racked up nine straight wins while sporting a nice 2.14 ERA over the last two months, kudos to those who touted him back in April. Do the Padres wish they had Wright and Oliver Perez right now??? It was thought that this years race would be between the Phillies and Marlins, who are now just trying to keep their heads above .500.
NL CENTRAL � Remember two months ago when it seemed like everyone was within striking distance of the St. Louis Cardinals??? Since Late May the Cards have been a sizzling 54-18 and have opened up an astounding 15 game lead on the Cubs. On the bottom end of the ledger are the Pirates (57-61) and Brewers (55-63), both teams are trying to break 11-year droughts without a winning season, the longest such streaks in any major North American team sport. That�s right, even the likes of the Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Clippers, and Carolina Hurricanes have had winning seasons in the last decade. On the bright side, the Brewers and Pirates losing season streak are still not as long as Ken Schrader�s winless streak in NASCAR.
NL WEST � The San Francisco Giants have been all over the map this year, they have been up, they have been down, they�ve been out, and now after a six-game winning streak they are back in second, 5 � games behind the Dodgers. Despite the controversial trades made at the deadline, LA has still had a nice month going 10-6 thus far. If you�re in need of steals and haven�t already done so, grab San Diego callup Freddy Guzman off the waiver wire ASAP. Guzman had 48 SB�s in 66 AAA games this year, and figures to be the next Carl Crawford-type impact player in the steals category. The downside with Guzman is that he has a weak throwing arm and injured his elbow earlier this year.
NL WILD CARD � The smart money still says that the Cubs will eventually find their way into the playoffs, but the bullpen let them down in a disturbing loss over the week. The Cubs, Padres, and Giants are all even in the loss column, with SF holding a � game lead over Diego and a game over the Cubs. Chicago has a pretty favorable September playing the likes of the Expos, Pirates, and Reds. The Cubs are already done with the Cards for the year and will be done with the Brewers and Astros after next weekend. The Padres and Giants face off six times in September. And then there are the D-Backs, who need to go 7-33 to avoid the most single-season losses of all-time. They're no lock to do it, they're 21-62 in the last three months.Last week we looked at home runs in the American League, team by team � this week it�s the National League�s turn. You can be excused for skipping the first team that is listed in alphabetical order�
ARIZONA � Is it coincidence that West Nile Virus has hit epidemic proportions in Arizona??? And why did Randy Johnson refuse a trade out of the desert, maybe he wanted to be part of history??? Steve Finley did have over 20 homers before getting traded and Luis Gonzalez (elbow surgery ) finishes the year with 17. Richie Sexson had nine homers in the 90 AB�s that the D-Backs got out of him. Among the regulars left Shea Hilenbrand (12) and Danny Bautista (11) are the modest home run leaders.
ATLANTA � Chipper Jones is on a five-game homer streak, with one two-homer game included during that period. Chipper gets extra points for hitting bombs out of Petco Park on consecutive nights. Are you listening Phil Nevin??? But the rest of Larry�s season has been a bust, only hitting .241 on the year. J.D Drew has been the life blood of the A-T-L offense this year, hitting 27 HR and 71 RBI in 107 games, proving the potential that he showed back in Spring Training. Andrew Jones has 20 HR, but as usual plenty of strikeouts and not that high a BA (.265). 2B Marcus Giles only has five homers in 62 games this year, I thought it was his brother who was playing his home games in Petco.
CUBS � Last time the Cubbies were in a Wild Card fight, Sammy Sosa was past 50 home runs by this time. This year Sammy is hitting .254 with 25 HR/57 RBI, albeit in only 87 games. Not bad for a 40-year old. In all seriousness there�s power up and down the Cub lineup including 3B Aramis Ramirez (.316/23/73), 1B Derrek Lee (.291/25/72), and OF Moises Alou (.272/27/69). Even the likes of catcher Michael Barrett (13 HR in 339 AB�s) and utilityman Todd Walker (13 HR in 288 AB�s have chipped in). SS Nomar Garciaparra is also still good for 25 HR + over the course of an entire season.
CINCINNATI � If looking for the next Mark McGwire look no further than the Reds Adam Dunn. We know hitting against Jose Lima can be like batting practice but what happened last week for absurd. Dunn hit a ball to straightaway center field, over the fence, over the batters eye, and onto the roof of a restaurant. After once bounce off the roof Mr. Spaulding landed on a backroad behind the stadium before bounding into the Ohio River. The final damage was estimated at 535 feet. Also I am told that the entire river technically belongs to Kentucky, so that ball was a Yank when it left Lima�s hand and was a hick by the time it got through � unbelievable. With 36 home runs in the bank Dunn even has a shot at 50 yet this year, and the .279 batting average isn�t exactly embarrassing neither. Wily Mo Pena was also reported to had landed one on top of the centerfield building, albeit in batting practice. WMP has 21 in 277 AB�s while Ken Griffey finishes the season with 20 homers in exactly 300 AB�s. First baseman Sean Casey has also shown impoved power this year and has 19 HR/75 RBI to go along with a .340 average.
COLORADO � Jeromy Burnitz is example #283 of how Coors Field can turn an ordinary player into a fantasy superstar. In 53 home games Burnie is hitting .351 with 21 HR/57 RBI, along with a Bonds-like .756 slugging percentage. On the road we get the Burnitz everyone knows and loves, a .246 BA with 10 HR, 29 RBI, and six unsuspecting fans winding up in the Emergency Room after Burnie�s bat flies into the stands after getting fooled with a nasty bender. Then there�s Vinny Castilla, .342 with 13 HR and and astounding 68 RBI in 58 home games (that would translate into 190 RBI in 162 home games), .202/12/32 on the road. He just might retire before getting traded again. Todd Helton is actually decent on the road, but his .321/10/25 pales in comparison to .335/16/46 at home. Preston Wilson has been a disappointment no matter how you cut it, only six homers and a .257 average in 191 AB�s since coming off the DL.
FLORIDA � Cub announcer Steve Stone touted Miguel Cabrera as �the next Albert Pujols� about 63 times during last year�s playoffs. At .310/78/25/82 I�m not going to put him quite at that level but I will say his career is off to a good start. 3B Mike Lowell�s power has been a little off lately but still not bad at .287/22/65. Shortstop Alex Gonzalez (not to be confused with the Expos Alex Gonzalez) has 17 HR�s but can�t hit my weight. Wait a minute, there are players contending for a batting title not hitting my weight!!!
HOUSTON � Remember a few years back when the Astros had the second most favorable offensive team in the NL??? Well the Astros offense this year is near Brewer-like with no one over 20 home runs as of yet. Lance Berkman (.307/18/71) has gone from being a stud to just being good, Craig Biggio (.286/17/43) is challenging a career high in homers, while I wonder if Jeff Bagwell (.254/18/56) could use a change of scenery after 14 years. After 25 HR�s in 387 AB�s last year, 3B Morgan Ensberg only has seven in 102 games this year. Throw out a hot May and 2B Jeff Kent (.281/14/68) has been a non-factor this year. Carlos Beltran has 14 HR/33 RBI in 47 games as an Astros, and is stealing again under Phil Garner � I will talk more about that next week.
LOS ANGELES � For everyone who�s saying �it�s about time� for Adrian Beltre�s possible MVP season (.326/76/34/82) keep in mind that he�s still only 25. Steve Finley (26 HR�s) along with Hee Seop Choi (15 HR) adds extra power to the lineup. Shawn Green has 9 HR/31 RBI since July 1. All told, there are seven Dodgers (including Milton Bradley and part-timers Jayson Werth and Jose Hernandez) in double-figures in home runs.
MILWAUKEE � Russell Branyon has gotten a well-deserved Dave Kingman reputation in the past few years while three organizations gave up on him. In 1999 Branyon hit .206 in AAA while striking out 187 times in just over 400 AB�s. But if you are in need of some double-shots of latte off the waiver wire, Branyon might be like finding a treasured antique at a neighborhood garage sale. In just 14 games since being traded to the Brewers, Branyon has six HR and 12 RBI, including two of the longest home runs in Miller Park history. Considering Branyon is also hitting over .300 and has struck out only 15 times in 44 AB�s, you could do worse. It isn�t like the team is going to do much better with Wes Helms. At AAA Branyon hit 27 HR�s in just over half a season, and more impressively hit .279. If he can hit .250 with 10 more homers the rest of the way Russell will be worth your while. There�s nothing else worth noting in the Brewers offense � Lyle Overbay�s once frantic RBI pace has slowed dramatically, O-Bay has only driven in 10 since the All-Star break.
MONTREAL � It�s not often when your top home run hitter comes from the top of the order, but OF Brad Wilkerson has 22 home runs, along with 81 runs scored � but only 45 RBI and a Scott Podsednik-like batting average barely hovering above .250. 3B Tony Batista his 20 HR and 75 RBI, but as usual his average is suffering (.240).
METS � Mike Cameron has 25 HR and 59 RBI on the year, but as usual is striking out a ton (120 K�s) and as usual is hitting under .250. Surprisingly, Richard Hidalgo has exploded with 15 HR/36 RBI in 52 games after hitting 4 HR and 30 RBI in 58 games with Houston � go figure. Don�t expect much more from Mike Piazza (.276/17/44) this year, who went on the DL this week.
PHILADELPHIA � Citizens Park has been worth about 15 extra home runs to the Phillies this year, the team averages 1.44 home runs per game at home as opposed to 1.19 on the road. However, Jim Thome has actually driven in 47 of his 81 runs on the road and only has one more HR at home (18) than on the road. OF Bobby Abreu has also fared better on the road, where he�s .300/15/46 as opposed to .288/11/37 at home. Pat Burrell (.263/18/68) has decided against wrist surgery and will attempt to play again this year, I wouldn�t count on it though.
PITTSBURGH � First baseman Craig Wilson leads the team in the power stats (.280/22/70), but Jason Bay (.299/17/53) is fast becoming the teams best fantasy star. Jason�s heroics pale in comparison to younger sister Lauren Bay this week, who pitched eight shutout innings in Canada�s upset win over #2 ranked Japan at the Olympics. The former Oklahoma State star possesses a 70 MPH fastball, just a tick behind that of U.S. star Jennie Finch.
ST. LOUIS � Al Pujols (.324/37/94) goes without saying, and is beginning to gain MVP momentum over Scott Rolen (.328/29/105). Jim Edmonds (.298/31/81) remains one of games true unsung stars, and manages to maintain a high average despite striking out a lot. New acquisition Larry Walker is hitting .326, while hitting three homers and driving in 11 in his first ten Cardinal games.
SAN DIEGO � The Padres remain dead last in the majors in home runs hit (93), but don�t blame it all on Petco Park � If you pro-rated the teams 52 HR in 57 home games and the Padres would still only rank 22nd. SS Mark Loretta has already achieved a career high in homers with 14, actually hitting nine at home. But the most amazing split involving Loretta has him hitting a cool .394 on the road, as opposed to .288 at home. Phil Nevin�s complaints about Petco are well founded, Nevin is .327/9/45 in 50 road games, .284/7/27 in 56 games at home. Bump Nevin�s projections for next year slightly if he�s traded or the fences are moved in. There isn�t much difference in Brian Giles home (.291/9/32) and road (.261/8/38) splits, Giles actually has a higher slugging percentage at home (.491) than on the road (.412). Shortstop Khalil has powered up with 5 HR and 18 RBI in the last month. Ryan Klesko (.269/5/48 in 93 games) is a fantasy bust this year no matter which way you cut it.
SAN FRANCISCO � After feasting off Expo pitching for three home runs in two days this week, it appears that Barry Bonds (692 career HR) will reach 700 this year. On pace for nearly 240 walks this year, Bonds 1.408 OPS would exceed his record breaking 1.381 from two years ago, and his .799 slugging percentage is on par with 2002. Bonds is not slowing down, only an even higher walk total is holding his home run total down. Among the mortals Marquis Grissom has 17 HR/62 RBI and catcher A.J. Pierzynski could be a good playoff pool choice, he�s second on the team with 67 RBI, tied for second (w/Ivan Rodriguez) among all MLB catchers.