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2002 FANTASY BASEBALL WEEK 21 PREVIEW - WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Jays build promising nucleus for '03...


Last week I took a close-up look at the Chicago Cubs pitching staff, who I still have high hopes for in tdhe future (Jon Lieber�s Tommy John surgery not withstanding). This week I take a look at the Toronto Blue Jays, who I feel will have several fantasy bargains waiting when or if we get to next season. The tempting offerings north of the border are as follows...

Chris Woodward � After two years of utility duty, 26 year old has exploded recently in an everyday role, see most of his action at shortstop. Thanks to a three-homer night last week, Woodward is not sitting at .305/32/11/26/2 in 167 AB�s. Multiply those numbers and you have plenty good power for a shortstop, especially a cheap shortstop. Woodward should be a good bargain in challenge leagues, and especially in AL only leagues should he be handed an everyday job in 2003.

Josh Phelps � Would be more intriguing in CDM if he was made a catcher for next year, which is no certainty. Josh has mostly seen DH duty for the Jays this year, going .289/13/3/14. The downside is 34 strikeouts in 114 AB�s which would only be acceptable if Josh could provide more than occasional power. Phelps has made only one appearance behind the dish after seven games there last year. Hopefully, the recent retirement of Darrin Fletcher will give Phelps more catching duty in September. Even then Josh could project only as a Toby Hall type player for next year, plenty cheap and for good reason.

Vernon Wells � I�ve talked about Vern before, who survived a slow start and finally was handed an everyday job with Jose Cruz�s struggles and the trade of expensive Raul Mondesi. Current stats stand at .267/57/15/64/56. Will still only be 24 years old next year, so .290/90/25/90/15 would be a nice conservative estimate, and in CDM should still go for under 750 K next year.

Orlando Hudson � Flashy second base prospect has arrived with plenty of fanfare, as he was showcased in both the AAA All-Star game as well as the All-Star Futures Game. Orlando�s first three weeks in the bigs have featured a +.340 BA along with 9 runs, 2 HR, and 11 RBI (60 AB�s). Multiply those totals just by eight (70/15/90) and you would have a tremendous value for under 500 K next year.

Eric Hinske � I spend the pre-season singing the praises of Joe Crede, Hank Blalock, and Sean Burroughs, and this is the rookie third sacker who goes off. Has shown nice balance in all five categories compiling a .280/68/18/61/10 in nearly 400 AB�s. I imagine he should still go for under 1000 K next year. He could be a nice fit to go along with a Crede, Blalock, or whoever else may emerge as a major leaguer early next year.

One possible fly in this ointment is that this could be one of the teams targeted for contraction. If Uncle Bud is going to litigated from trying to eliminate any of the U.S. based teams, he just might try to snuff off both Canadian teams in one fell swoop. In that case it is anyone�s guess what happens to the development of these players�


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Another interesting team to follow these days are the Atlanta Braves. It is widely reported that Altanta will not be able to resign both Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux, which does not make sense to me. If the owners (AOL/Time Warner) are going to go down eventually, they might as well max out the ol� credit card before doing so (like any good crook would do). But where would there be for a Maddux or Glavine to go??? My guess is that Boston would have their crosshairs on the New Englander Glavine, which at that point the Red Sox would officially run out of excuses in trying to compete with the Yankees. Glavine, Pedro, Lowe, and Burkett sounds like a pretty good rotation to me. My guess with Maddux is that if the Braves could only have one, it would be Greg. If Maddux did leave however, my Guess is that he either winds up with the Yankees or Dodgers, with LA the most likely scenario for the Las Vegas product.

And then there is the prospect of top closer John Smoltz returning to the A-T-L rotation. Apparently, Smoltz�s contract contains bonuses on wins and innings pitched, but not for saves. Again, management needs to rewrite that baby. 40 saves in 114 games � I think I would find a bonus somewhere for that and take care of the man. However, if Smoltz becoming a starter again did come to fruition, then Tim Spooneybarger becomes a must-have bargain next year. Although Spoon is not the greatest strikeout pitcher in the world (23 in 36.1 innings this year), his other numbers (2.97/1.24) are more than acceptable so he should be able to more than grow into the closer�s role next season, when Spoon will still only be 23 years old. If Spoon even just got 75 percent of Smoltz�s production in 2003, he would be more than worth it. Spoon and Kyle Farnsworth are a couple of potential prime cheap closers who will be the backbone many fantasy challenge rosters next year. Also keep an eye on the continued development of Damian Moss, sitting with a 3.23 ERA and 1.19 ratio. Everything pitching coach Leo Mazzone develops seems to turn into gold, and when Moss improves his control (66 walks in 127.1 innings) he should become a top pitcher in the Maddux/Glavine mold.

Speaking of relieving, since June 1 Smoltz has accumulated an amazing 28 saves � that�s just in a two month period folks. During that same time frame Eric Gagne has closed 20 games, Eddie Guardado 18, Mike Williams 18. Most of you who have read this column over the past two seasons knows all too well of my love-hate (mostly hate) relationship with a particular Arizona D-Back closer. Although Byung-Hyun Kim has only saved 14 games during this time frame, give Kim credit for this � he has been the winning pitcher in four games since June 21. There are plenty of starting pitchers out there that you would be hard-pressed to get that kind of production from.


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Now for players making more news than a Jill Arrington photo flap�

Sammy Sosa � Sammy is having an off year, only on pace for 57 home runs and 130 RBI�s. Good for everyone else but Sammy hit 64 bombs and 160 ribbies last year. Batting average is also down from .328 to .307. Just remember one thing though, never, EVER, sit the dude in Colorado. Four home runs and 14 RBI in two games in Coors Field, then hit another two run shot for an encore with the wind howling out at Wrigley. Counting a four-RBI outing at SF last week, Sammy has hit an amazing 7 HR and 20 RBI in just five games. Those who hung on to Sammy in CDM this long were obviously rewarded big time last week. Ten home runs would mean five consecutive seasons of 50+ home runs. Unreal.

Randy Winn (TB)� Only if you must have a Devil Ray, or are desperate for steals, in which he does have 23 on the season, along with a .310 BA. At only 490 he is at help with those two categories and is not bad (62 R, 9 HR, 51 RBI) in the others.

Rodrigo Lopez (BAL) � Has been as good as the big boys this season, with a 13-4 record, along with a 3.07/1.14. That is, a 13-4 slate pitching for Baltimore. Strikeouts (95 in 146.2 IP) are not spectacular but adequate with his recent production. Only downside is that he�s unlisted in CDM, which means he goes for 750 � thence not as good a value as Roy Halladay, and also pales with Mark Prior at the same salary.

Carlos Febles (KC) � Anyone remember when he was actually hot CDM property back in 2000 (with the promise of cheap steals)??? Well the Royals finally got fed up and shockingly sent Carlos to AAA as he was only hitting .233, although he did have 14 steals in 318 AB�s. Looks like he�ll be good field-no hit for the balance of his career.

Jarrod Washburn (ANH) � Here is someone that I was not impressed with at the beginning of the season, when he was considered the Angels �de facto� #1 starter. De facto means since no one else really qualifies for the position (Nolan Ryan, Frank Tanana, and Mark Langston were nowhere to be found). And then Cleveland ripped into him opening night like a woman who just jumped into the croc pool. Well, times have changed, and when you outduel Roy Halladay at SkyDome you are no longer flying under the radar, especially when the ERA drops under 3 (2.97), along with a 1.15 ration and a sparkling 15-3 record. Among mortals, he is a Cy Young candidate. Strikeouts (110 in 154.2 IP are also acceptable.

Brandon Duckworth (PHI) � Still has promise with his strikeout an inning potential, but has been demoted to the bullpen after a disastrous 1+ inning outing that saw his ERA balloon to over five (5.23). Still someone to keep an eye on but feel free to ditch for this year.

Austin Kearns (CIN) � A nice rookie of the year candidate, and a nice CDM value at 580. Downside is that Kearns has only one home run since June. If looking for cheap homers, look for Vern Wells before looking here.

Darryl Ward (HOU) � Finally has picked it up in the production department, driving in eight runs for the last week. Since July 6, Ward has 6 home runs and 25 RBI, and comes at virtually the same price (600) as Kearns.

Jose Jiminez (COL) � So who�s the most productive closer out there right now once getting past Smoltz, Guardado, Williams, and Gagne??? Well look no further than right here as Jiminez is up to 32 saves for the year, already near-doubling his 2001 total (17). His 3.38 ERA and 1.18 ratio is more than acceptable, especially pitching in Colorado, and the save total is very exceptional pitching for a team well under the .500 mark. One other impressive stat, Jose has only issued nine free passes in 56 IP, down from 22 in 56 IP last year.

Jason Jennings (COL) � Hell has officially frozen over, I have mention two Rockie pitchers in one article on a positive note. 6-2, 242 lbs, those are some impressive, intimidating numbers. So is a 13-5 record, again for a team well on the dark side of .500. The ERA/ratio numbers (4.17/1.42) are a little unacceptable for challenge standards, but still worthy of consideration in the point-style realm (or if you want to platoon him for road games). Other than that, just keep an eye out in case he ever gets exiled out of Bedrock.

Shea Hillenbrand (BOS) � Here�s the scoop on Shea since the hot start that made him a consensus challenge play. Since May 24 Hillenbrand has hit .283 (293 AB�s) with 40 runs, 7 homers and 31 RBI. Decent, but has officially crashed to earth. Continue to use Shea at his 450 salary but don�t get carried away with him for �03. Look at the likes of Joe Crede (CWS) or Hank Blalock (TX) for a cheap third sacker next year.

Albert Pujols (STL) - Just for some historical perspective, Al now has 91 ribbies on the year, giving him 221 for his two year career. 19 more and Al breaks the Post World War II record for most RBI by any players in his first two years. Across the board Al has predictably slipped a little this year as he's gotten the full respect of rival hurlers. BA is down from .329 to .296, slugging from .610 to .558 and OBP from .403 to .388. Still, owners who drafted Al early have gotten 90-95 percent of what could be expected.

Bob Wickman (CLE) - The reaper has a good clench on Wick now, as he has been shut down again. Looks like Mark Wohlers will continue to close for the balance of the season.

Kyle Farnsworth (CHC) - 15 earned runs in his last 11 IP. OUCH!!! Maybe the Cubs will need Tom Gordon in '03 after all. Hopefully, this train wreck of a season doesn't affect Kyle long term.

Brent Butler (COL) - Most CDM teams are set at second with the likes of Soriano, Castillo, and Spivey, so this just goes out as an FYI. Brent has taken the second base job away from Jose Ortiz (who has now been given up on in two organizations). Brent stands at .279/40/7/27 in nearly 250 AB's. Not recommended right now, but could be a nice bargain next year.

Mike Lieberthal (PHI) - Fresh off a 25-58 (.431) tear with 6 homers and 10 RBI. Phillies are looking at letting him go in the off-season in favor of Johnny Estrada, but for right now Lieberthal is as good as anyone in the position from the power department.

SportingNews.com Ultimate Fantasy Football

Before starting on next weeks schedule, I thought it would be a good idea just as a public service to explain the post July 31 trading procedure, as it applies to teams claiming players on waivers. Let�s say the Colorado Rockies put Mike Hampton on waiver (whey they did do recently). All MLB teams at this point have an opportunity to claim Hampton. Especially with the higher profile players, some teams claim a player off the waiver wire, often just for the purpose of �blocking� a potential trade to a rival. At that point the Rockies can either (a) pull Hampton off the waiver wire or (b) let him go to the team with the highest waiver priority (usually worst record) with no compensation. Now for hypothetical purposes, lets say that Cincinnati GM Jim Bowden sees Hampton�s name on the waiver wire. Fearing that Hampton could end up being traded to the Astros or Cardinals, Bowden claims Hampton off waivers � figuring that Colorado would then simply pull Hampton off. However, the Rockies GM has the other option of simply allowing the Reds to keep Hampton. Colorado loses Hampton with no compensation, but the Reds are then saddled with the albatross of Hampton�s monster contract � which might Have Jim Bowden looking for the nearest bridge to jump off of. The Padres wound up being an unwilling recipient of veteran closer Randy Myers (team already had Trevor Hoffman) in just that fashion a few years back. The Yankees were also awarded Jose Canseco off the waiver wire, only to have a red-faced Joe Torre admit later that the team really did not have a role for Jose, that they were just trying to prevent him from winding up on a potential playoff opponent. On the other end, the team placing a player on waivers must be aware when a player is claimed on waivers, so they can pull them off. Pittsburgh was victimized a few years back when a paperwork snafu allowed a player placed on waivers (that they liked) to an NL rival. It�s always an interesting chess match when it comes to the GM waiver wire game this time of year.

WEEK 21 SCHEDULE

Looks like by the time you read this that a strike date of August 30 will be set, so the possibility of this being the final full week of the regular season exists. My guess on what goes down remains that the players walk out on the 30th, both sides hunker down and hammer out an agreement by Labor Day, with the disrupted week made up at the end of the season. And that�s just speculation on my part. A busy week is in store as the majority of teams have seven or more games. Baltimore leads the way with an eight-gamer, while TOR, KC, OAK, CLE, SEA, DET, TB, MN, HOU, CIN, COL, ATL, SF, FL, SD, MON, PIT and STL play seven. The remaining teams have six-game slates. The AL spends the week in the eastern venues, while the NL is mostly out west. That means NYY, CLE, DET, BAL, BOS, CWS, HOU, MIL, STL, COL, AZ, SD, LA, and SF play at least six games at home (some will start on the road for a Monday get-away game) while ANH, OAK, SEA, TB, TX, MN, CHC, PHI, PIT, MON, ATL, CIN, FL, and NYM spend most if not all of Week 21 on the road. Only KC and TOR have split schedules. Montreal and the Mets visit Colorado while the Cubs and Reds invade Houston.

Potential double-duty pitchers for the week include Randy Johnson, Brett Myers (gets a second chance to dominate Milwaukee), Tim Hudson, Barry Zito (not slated to go till Monday), Paul Byrd, Andy Pettitte, Freddy Garcia, Derek Lowe, Kevin Millwood, Brian Lawrence, Bartolo Colon (misses COL), Damian Moss, and Wade Miller.

CDM's Free Agent List for the week is as follows...

C 56 *GIL, GERONIMO BAL 750000
1B 104 SWEENEY, MIKE KC 1590000
2B 223 ANDERSON, MARLON PHI 660000
3B 319 BOONE, AARON CIN 750000
SS 405 VIZQUEL, OMAR CLE 1230000
OF 505 ORDONEZ, MAGGLIO CWS 1750000
OF 568 HUNTER, TORII MIN 830000
SP 801 JOHNSON, RANDY ARZ 1990000
SP 992 *ISHII, KAZUHISA LA 750000
RP 1105 SMOLTZ, JOHN ATL 1510000


TRIVIA ANSWER FROM LAST WEEK

Boston Celtic great Danny Ainge is the other Blue Jay to have played both NBA and MLB. Danny is also working on making the Senior PGA tour when he turns 50, which would potentially be an unprecedented pro golf, hoops, and baseball trifecta...




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