This is the time of year where the 30 teams of MLB break off into two different groups, those still entertaining post-season hopes � along with those playing out the string and giving prospects in the organization an extended look in advance of next year�s spring training.
There can be advantages as far as both groups are concerned. Obviously, a fantasy team owner would prefer to utilize players on teams that have something to play for in September, whether it be for a Division Title, a Wild Card berth or post-season seeding. Those with post-season berths locked up or are out of contention will tend not to take any chances in the final weeks with players who have minor injury concerned. Mark Prior and Austin Kearns were among those shut down early at the end of 2002 who likely would had been out there had anything been on the line.
But not all is lost if you�re following the fortunes of a team hopelessly out of contention. Those teams tend to start giving a look-see to some of their top prospects � especially after September 1 when rosters are expanded. Not unlike the exhibition season in pro football, this gives us a great opportunity to see the big picture with such a club, and an early look at prospects performing under Major League conditions.
With that in mind, let�s take a look at the playoff picture and how it may affect players the rest of the way�
AL � There is no one on the fringe of contention here. You are either smack in the thick of things ( see BOS, NYY, KC, CWS, MN, OAK, SEA) or are out of it (TOR, BAL, TB, DET, CLE, ANH, TX). What makes the AL picture so great though is that none of the seven contenders have anything locked up. The Yankees and Seattle are currently battling for the best record, but each only hold three-game leads over Boston and Oakland respectively. Between the AL East and West, one of those four teams will miss the playoffs entirely. As of right now it appears that the A�s and Red Sox will be battling for the Wild Card perhaps to the final weekend or beyond, but even a mild slump could send the Yanks and/or Mariners straight into the clutches of the final two.
None of the top three teams in the AL Central figure to be in the hunt for the Wild Card, currently upstart Kansas City maintains a narrow 1 � game lead over Minnesota and 2 � over the White Sox, with the Royals and Chicago playing the best ball as of late. Take note of the September schedule, Oakland and Seattle play six times in their final nine games. Meanwhile, Boston and New York meet home and home on consecutive weekends in late August/early September. Both AL East contenders have soft schedules in the final weeks playing the likes of Tampa Bay and Baltimore. The White Sox and Royals play seven times in the final ten days of the season. The White Sox also play the Twins seven times between September 8th and the 18th.
NL � The bad news here is that the Giants and Braves are cruising towards Division titles, and have their post-season plans pretty well set. There would still be the battle for best record and the home field advantage that comes along with it, but with several injuries currently on the Giants side (Jason Schmidt, Rich Aurilia, Sidney Ponson, Felix Rodriguez among others) it appears that SF will pretty much concede the #1 seed to the A-T-L. That is bad news for Schmidt, Barry Bonds, Javy Lopez, Gary Sheffield, and Marcus Giles just to name a few, who will be getting rested often in September.
On the plus side, there is no shortage of NL teams entertaining playoff hopes. Houston, St. Louis and the Cubs are all within three games of each other in the Central, with no team seeming destined to pull away. Florida and Philadelphia are the current front runners for the Wild Card, but Arizona and Los Angeles remain within striking distance, along with the Central teams. Even Philadelphia and Colorado remain on the fringe of playoff contention. The Phillies and Marlins do face each other six times in the final two weeks of the season. The biggest bombshell to occur over the weekend was the last-minute scratch of Jason Schmidt on Sunday due to elbow discomfort. SF brass downplayed the injury indicating that if it were more of a must game he could had gone. With that logic expect Schmidt to be handled with kid gloves the rest of the way. Although the team insisted that Schmidt would make his start on Friday as scheduled, approximately 60 percent of CDM owners went ahead and benched him for the week.
Many CDM owners went ahead and dove in after Dontrelle Willis this week with two home starts, including a Monday date with the anemic Dodgers. What a shock to see the D-Train derailed for seven ER in 2+ innings. Just goes to prove there are no sure things in this game.
Aaron Boone has gone from bad to worse since his trade to the Yankees, hitting 4-37. Maybe Drew Henson should put those football plans on hold after all. Also keep an eye on Jason Giambi, as he is trying to play through a bum knee. Albert Pujols steps it up even more with a 26-game hitting streak, included is a game-winning home run over John Smoltz over the weekend. That same game also featured an un-assisted triple play by Rafael Furcal. After one such occurrence in 65 years, unassisted TP�s have now occurred four times in the last 11 years. Furcal becomes the seventh shortstop to turn the trick, along with three second basemen and two first basemen.
Rumors concerning baseball�s Silly Season are starting to swirl, with reports circulating that Greg Maddux and Javy Lopez will both walk at the end of the season � it is safe to say that the two will not sign with the same team. Incidentally Maddux was touched up for 14 hits v. San Diego this week. The Padres had 23 hits in all. That�s nearly as crazy as the LA going off on Willis. Back to the free agent front, the Braves will not come away empty handed as they have their eyes set on re-acquiring Kevin Millwood (who still has a home in the Atlanta area), while Johnny Estrada (who came in a trade for Millwood) becomes the new Brave catcher. Vladimir Guerrero still projects are the biggest potential FA prize, but his balky back remains an X-factor.
A pair of bullpen situations among contenders continue to evolve. Billy Koch (elbow) finally went on the DL this week leaving Damaso Marte and Flash Gordon to battle for the closers role. Marte is a weird stat line, has a 1.58 ERA but has blown seven of 16 save opportunities. Shigetoshi Hasegawa has been simply lights out going 24 innings without allowing a run while converting on nine straight save opportunities. Meanwhile Kaz Sasaki is rushing in an attempt to return to the active roster � I wonder why. Meanwhile the M�s had an answer for Jeff Nelson�s complaints about the lack of trade activity by trading him to the Yankees for Armando Benitez. Mando remains a setup man and does not figure into a closing situation with Seattle. The next closing situation that you may see a change is Montreal where Rocky Biddle has been � well rocky. One closer you need not worry about is Oakland�s Keith Foulke, who bailed the team out of a nasty no-out jam en route to a two inning save, and has a 0.77 ERA since the All-Star break.
Sammy Sosa has quietly gone on one of his patented surges; hitting 22 HR�s since coming off of suspension on June 18. Livan Hernandez is pitching some of his best ball in recent seasons, winning five games with a 1.74 ERA since July 1. Pudge Rodriguez has been huge lately, especially for those in CDM 2nd season, hitting .360 with 48 runs and 44 RBI since early June. The Dodgers have announced that they will skip their fifth starter whenever possible, giving Kevin Brown, Odalis Perez, and Hideo Nomo starts in 29 of the teams final 44 games. Same will hold true at least for the balance of this month in regards to Pedro Martinez, but he will face a tough road with the likes of Seattle (road) on 8/16, Oakland on 8/21, Toronto on 8/26, and then the Yankees in consecutive starts on 8/31 and 9/5.
Finally, was there ever a piece of croc like Rafael Palmeiro�s refusal to accept a trade to the Chicago Cubs. Refusing the trade was one thing, telling MLB.com that he would like to stay and help his team �reach .500� was near hilarious. Let�s say Palmeiro catches fire and the Rangers go 30-15 the rest of way to finish 81-81. Would anyone really notice nor care??? I tried to pump the guy up earlier in the year since statistically I do believe he has HOF credentials. But what would had really helped in that cause would had been to participate in a pennant chase and perhaps be noted for some memorable playoff performances. But I guess the legacy will remain toiling for the lowly Rangers, pitching Viagra, and refusing a trade all in the name of Texas� lack of sales tax. He and Eddie Belfour�
Now for the top CDM adds/drops for the week� This week settles down as far as two-time starters are concerned, the best bets are Kevin Millwood, Johan Santana, Mark Mulder, and Javier Vazquez. This week the NL action is out west while the AL games will be in eastern venues. HOU, MIL, STL, AZ, COL, SD, SF, LA, DET NYY, TOR, BOS, MN, and CWS wil be the teams at home all week while TB and BAL have three games at home. A pair of very favorable NL foes visit Colorado in Florida and Atlanta. Unfortunately Greg Maddux starts one of the games at Coors which means two things, (1) Javy Lopez doesn�t play and (2) Maddux gets touched for 9 ER and 15 hits in 4 2/3 IP. For the few CDM owners who have an FA pickup left who cares, here is that list�
WEEK IN REVIEW
ADDS
� That was walking into a haymaker. To quote one BBS post �I didn�t see this one coming.
DROPS
� Probably a safe drop at this point.
WEEK 21 PREVIEW
1B � Ken Harvey (400) � A decent rookie campaign, hitting .257 with 9 HR and 51 RBI. A possible cheap player to look at for next year.
2B � Roberto Alomar (1470) � Statistically it has gotten no better since arriving in Chicago, only eight RBI in 30 games.
3B � Shea Hillenbrand (1140) � Has actually worked out so far in Zona, going .295/9/33 in 44 games.
SS � David Eckstein (1180) � 14 steals but at way too steep a price.
OF � Vladimir Guerreo (2010) � Finally starting to step up this week.
OF � Richard Hidalgo (960) � Should get some moderate interest this week and is having a solid all around year (.309/29/20/62), added bonus in that the Astros are at home this week.
SP � Derek Lowe (1200) � 5.07 ERA and 1.50 ratio, need I say more.
SP � Dontrelle Willis (750) � Get him this week and get over on those who grabbed him for the two-stepper.
RP � Jose Mesa (1290) � Lost his closers role, stay away.